Former Blue Jays Thread

[G-Snarls]

Why would the Yankees go after Reynolds when they got Aaron Hicks?

 

Funny tidbit:

 

If you Google "Aaron Hicks", the first question that pops up under Google's "People also ask" is: Why is Hicks still on the Yankees?

 

Hicks 2023:

 

.159/.243/.222 (not often you see a SLG < OBP)

wRC+ 33

Bad defense

DRS -2

UZR/150 -43.7

Negative 0.6 WAR

 

It's hard to be that bad in the majors and still get regular playing time on a competitive team, but he has been.

[max silver]

Kirk has 241 games in the majors and a career 120wRC+ even with his recent struggles

 

Moreno has 59 games with a 106 wRC+ fueled by a career .378 BABIP

 

There's a major gap between the two still. Obviously Moreno is the better defender. Anyways that's all i'm getting at. People are being a bit unfair in their current assessment of Kirk while overlooking the fact that Moreno's numbers could very well be a mirage.

 

Moreno is better at throwing out runners and controlling the running game, but Kirk is better at blocking and framing. I think it's far from a slam dunk that Moreno is a better overall defender at this point but I do think he has a higher overall defensive ceiling due to his athleticism.

 

Baseball prospectus has a detailed catching defense leaderboard which takes into account framing, blocking and stolen base prevention. Kirk is ranked 13th in catcher defense added, vs Moreno who finds himself way down the board in 77th place.

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/leaderboards/fielding/

[jaysblue]

Kirk has 241 games in the majors and a career 120wRC+ even with his recent struggles

 

Moreno has 59 games with a 106 wRC+ fueled by a career .378 BABIP

 

There's a major gap between the two still. Obviously Moreno is the better defender. Anyways that's all i'm getting at. People are being a bit unfair in their current assessment of Kirk while overlooking the fact that Moreno's numbers could very well be a mirage.

 

Kirk is more proven at the MLB level, not denying that. Even at the time of the trade, I preferred keeping Kirk/Jansen as the catching tandem given the Jays timeline to contend. Moreno had more risk given he was an unknown commodity at the big league level.

 

The issue with Kirk is if he doesn't stay in somewhat decent shape, it's going to have a negative impact on his overall performance both offensively and behind the plate long term. There is nothing wrong with being concerned about that.

 

Moreno could end up being like a Jean Segura type bat behind the plate. For Moreno to be valuable offensively, he'll have to hit close to .300 every season, given his low BB rate and lack of power thus far. Given his age, it's reasonable to expect he makes improvements in those areas down the road. Also, he might not. So still more risk if he does regress given the low BB rate and power.

 

Kirk even if he hits .240 or .250, he'll still be valuable offensively given his high BB rate. Only concern is if he doesn't hit for much power and declines defensively long term. Like I said before, if Kirk can end up like Gregg Zaun behind the plate, more than happy. As well, definitely upside for more offensive output if he takes better care of himself physically.

[jaysblue]

Moreno is better at throwing out runners and controlling the running game, but Kirk is better at blocking and framing. I think it's far from a slam dunk that Moreno is a better overall defender at this point but I do think he has a higher overall defensive ceiling due to his athleticism.

 

Baseball prospectus has a detailed catching defense leaderboard which takes into account framing, blocking and stolen base prevention. Kirk is ranked 13th in catcher defense added, vs Moreno who finds himself way down the board in 77th place.

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/leaderboards/fielding/

 

Can Kirk handle a workload of 130-140 games behind the plate though?

 

Kirk isn't bad defensively, not knocking him at all. As he ages, and if he doesn't stay in decent shape, his defense will regress. That's with any catcher or player.

 

It actually isn't a bad idea to extend Jansen maybe in the offseason. Allows the Jays to keep both Kirk and Jansen fresh over a 162 game season. Probably can offer something similar to what the Braves extended Murphy for, but maybe one less year and slightly less AAV.

[John_Havok]

Can Kirk handle a workload of 130-140 games behind the plate though?

 

Kirk isn't bad defensively, not knocking him at all. As he ages, and if he doesn't stay in decent shape, his defense will regress. That's with any catcher or player.

 

It actually isn't a bad idea to extend Jansen maybe in the offseason. Allows the Jays to keep both Kirk and Jansen fresh over a 162 game season. Probably can offer something similar to what the Braves extended Murphy for, but maybe one less year and slightly less AAV.

 

Yeah, it's hard to really say. You dont really want to commit much to Jansen given his injury history, but at the same time... I have 0 faith in Kirk's ability to catch a 120+ games. something like a 4 year/36million? where 6 million would be his 2024 salary replacing arb 3, then 10m for each of the next 3?

[jaysblue]

Yeah, it's hard to really say. You dont really want to commit much to Jansen given his injury history, but at the same time... I have 0 faith in Kirk's ability to catch a 120+ games. something like a 4 year/36million? where 6 million would be his 2024 salary replacing arb 3, then 10m for each of the next 3?

 

Yeah unless Jansen goes out and has a 5 WAR season, he won't get near Murphy money.

 

I think given his injury history, 4 years around $36-40M would be pretty fair for both sides.

[Brownie19]

The Jays haven't even developed a passable 4th outfielder in recent memory so it goes well beyond developing starters.

 

um....Lordes Gurriel? Or do you not count international signings? I'd also suggest we developed Teo.

[BigCecil]

um....Lordes Gurriel? Or do you not count international signings? I'd also suggest we developed Teo.

 

LGJ was an IF through development. Got the Yips at 2B so they plopped him in LF in the Majors. At least thats what I remember.

 

Saying we developed Teo as an OF would be a stretch I think. He almost killed Altuve running into him, from the OF, with HOU.

 

Edited May 19, 2023 by BigCecil

[max silver]

um....Lordes Gurriel? Or do you not count international signings? I'd also suggest we developed Teo.

 

That was poorly worded as I would certainly count Teo and Gurriel as success stories, however there has been nothing developed in the pipeline since these guys debuted aside from cup of coffee/5th outfielder types. It's trending like it will be something like a decade between likely debuts of even a decent bench quality outfielder so that's a legitimate ongoing organizational weakness.

[Brownie19]

LGJ was an IF through development. Got the Yips at 2B so they plopped him in LF in the Majors. At least thats what I remember.

 

Saying we developed Teo as an OF would be a stretch I think. He almost killed Altuve running into him, from the OF, with HOU.

 

 

What? So Teo ran into Altuve while he was on Houston and that's why you think the Jays didn't develop him after trading for him? He was a toolsy nobody when we traded for him. We gave up Liriano, a bullpen pitcher on an expiring contract for him. He had no value. We developed him into a legit ML ball player who had some fantastic years in Toronto.

 

Did we develop him into Andruw Jones? No we did not, but he was very good player.

 

As for Lourdes - I don't give a f*** what he played in Cuba. Lots of players come up as middle infielders and have to move to new positions by the time they hit the majors. Not many 6'4" players stick at SS.

 

The reality is we haven't drafted many OFers over the past 10 years, which seems to be a strategy.

 

Alan Roden

Jaden Rudd

Zack Britton

Dasan Brown

Will Robertson

Griffen Conine

JP Woodman

 

Who am I missing? JD Davis in 2012? It is interesting to see how few draft picks the Jays have spent on OFers though...Corner OFers do seem to be one of the easiest/cheapest positions in baseball to fill. CF - not so much. Big time cost.

[jaysblue]

Kevin Pillar probably the last good OF this team produced.

 

Does Jose Bautista count if Lourdes and Teo do?

 

Adam Lind but he became strictly a 1B/DH.

 

Reed Johnson had some good seasons when he was platooning with Frank Catalanotto.

 

Vernon Wells and Alex Rios were both probably the last elite outfielders this team produced.

Edited May 19, 2023 by jaysblue

[G-Snarls]

Vernon Wells and Alex Rios were both probably the last elite outfielders this team produced.

 

Definitely

 

It's been awhile

[Spanky__99]

This FO seem to like guys up the middle, you can always move a MIF to the OF. Not a big deal.

[jaysblue]

Definitely

 

It's been awhile

 

Yeah pretty much 20 years, which is crazy when you think about it. Not saying it's a bad thing, but yeah shocking it's been awhile.

 

Rios had some good seasons here. Two back-to-back 5 WAR seasons. It's too bad he never realized his full potential and became a legitimate superstar. He had all the tools to do so. I remember after 2007, the Jays came so close trading him for Tim Lincecum, which would have been sweet! Rios had a couple of decent seasons after he left Toronto, though he was either awful or had a 3-4 WAR season out of the blue haha.

 

Wells was solid as well and had some really good years. That contract hurt his image which made some fans turn on him, but he was a solid player when he was healthy. It's too bad he couldn't consistently be a 5-6 WAR player. He also didn't age that well and lost some athleticism.

[max silver]

What? So Teo ran into Altuve while he was on Houston and that's why you think the Jays didn't develop him after trading for him? He was a toolsy nobody when we traded for him. We gave up Liriano, a bullpen pitcher on an expiring contract for him. He had no value. We developed him into a legit ML ball player who had some fantastic years in Toronto.

 

Did we develop him into Andruw Jones? No we did not, but he was very good player.

 

As for Lourdes - I don't give a f*** what he played in Cuba. Lots of players come up as middle infielders and have to move to new positions by the time they hit the majors. Not many 6'4" players stick at SS.

 

The reality is we haven't drafted many OFers over the past 10 years, which seems to be a strategy.

 

Alan Roden

Jaden Rudd

Zack Britton

Dasan Brown

Will Robertson

Griffen Conine

JP Woodman

 

Who am I missing? JD Davis in 2012? It is interesting to see how few draft picks the Jays have spent on OFers though...Corner OFers do seem to be one of the easiest/cheapest positions in baseball to fill. CF - not so much. Big time cost.

 

DJ Davis is another guy who was drafted first round but never developed a passable hit tool.

[max silver]

This FO seem to like guys up the middle, you can always move a MIF to the OF. Not a big deal.

 

That's good in theory but aside from Gurriel this hasn't really happened in actuality. Otto Lopez is one such guy who might play some outfield if he ever proves he can hit in MLB. He at least has a shot due to a pretty decent hit tool and good speed.

[G-Snarls]

This FO seem to like guys up the middle, you can always move a MIF to the OF. Not a big deal.

 

Yes. Both AA/Beeston and Atkins/Shapiro clearly subscribed to this philosophy

 

I'd be fine with a steady stream of pitchers, catchers and middle infielders that flourish in the organization

 

Corner outfielders can be made/traded for

[John_Havok]

um....Lordes Gurriel? Or do you not count international signings? I'd also suggest we developed Teo.

 

Naw, Teo spent all of like 100 PAs in the jays minors before he was a regular. I wouldn't truly count him as a Jays developed OF.

[BigCecil]

What? So Teo ran into Altuve while he was on Houston and that's why you think the Jays didn't develop him after trading for him? He was a toolsy nobody when we traded for him. We gave up Liriano, a bullpen pitcher on an expiring contract for him. He had no value. We developed him into a legit ML ball player who had some fantastic years in Toronto.

 

Did we develop him into Andruw Jones? No we did not, but he was very good player.

 

As for Lourdes - I don't give a f*** what he played in Cuba. Lots of players come up as middle infielders and have to move to new positions by the time they hit the majors. Not many 6'4" players stick at SS.

 

The reality is we haven't drafted many OFers over the past 10 years, which seems to be a strategy.

 

Alan Roden

Jaden Rudd

Zack Britton

Dasan Brown

Will Robertson

Griffen Conine

JP Woodman

 

Who am I missing? JD Davis in 2012? It is interesting to see how few draft picks the Jays have spent on OFers though...Corner OFers do seem to be one of the easiest/cheapest positions in baseball to fill. CF - not so much. Big time cost.

 

Obviously my point was he was developed as an OF by HOU and in the Majors at that position. The running into Altuve was just something that was a big deal when he was playing in the OF in the majors for another organization. Teo was already a developed OF. Thus, its a stretch to say the Jays developed him as an OF. Yes, he became a star with the Jays. Who we traded for him, heist that it was, is not relevant to this discussion. Ironically Teo got traded for a RP on the way in and on the way out of TOR.

 

Bautista was largely an IF for PITT. He became an OF and star once he got to the Jays. Did the Jays develop him as an OF?

 

LGJ was an IF in his Jays ML development phase 2017-19. I believe mostly at 2B. Not talking about Cuba. He got moved to the OF in the Majors because they wanted his bat in the line up. I guess you could say we developed him as a OF. Aside from the fact he pretty much sucked in the position.

 

The issue of who becomes a much better producing player after we put them in our OF is potentially "developing them as an OF" but I'm thinking of a prospect who comes up through our ML system in the OF and then progresses at the ML level in that position.

 

I don't want to argue about it. I take your point. I just see it a bit differently.

Edited May 19, 2023 by BigCecil

[glory]

Yes. Both AA/Beeston and Atkins/Shapiro clearly subscribed to this philosophy

 

I'd be fine with a steady stream of pitchers, catchers and middle infielders that flourish in the organization

 

Corner outfielders can be made/traded for

 

The issue with the Jays is they have prioritized middle infielders who hit like middle infielders. It's hard to turn those guys into passable outfielders unless they somehow become plus CF'ers where offense isn't as important as RF/LF. On top of that the outfielders they have drafted over the past few years have not been able to hit as they climbed the ladder in the minors. I actually think it's a drafting issue in general, not just an outfielder issue. The amateur drafting since 2016 aside from hitting on Bichette and Manoah has been ass cheeks for the most part. Bichette was drafted 7 years ago. They haven't developed a homegrown drafted position player at any position even close to that level since (Kirk/Moreno were international FAs). The Cardinals drafted Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, and Alec Burleson in a 5 round draft in 2020, as an example. The prospects are there, the Jays just don't seem to be identifying them as well as other teams, and it shows in the current state of the farm system. Even the international drafting since Moreno/Kirk has been suspect, although to be fair with international prospects you need to give more time due to how young they are.

 

It's actually a credit to Atkins for how good the MLB team is given the lack of real farm development over the years. He's done really well on a lot of trades and signings, to his credit.

[Stottlemyres_Bloody_Chin]

Varsho's been a slow starter thus far into his career and he's coming on, far too early to say the trade is bad, or are you trolling?

 

The trade's fine.

 

Really? You wouldn't want a redo on it? We got RAPED.

 

How is Varsho coming on?

 

.208 BA, .670 OPS over the past 30 days.

.143 BA, .483 OPS over last 7 days.

 

He's a s***** hitter, always has been. Vastly overrated by many on here.

 

He's great in the field sure, but so was Zimmer. Varsho isn't hitting much better this year than Zimmer's .631 career OPS.

 

If we wanted a black hole on offense who could go get it in LF, we could have kept Zimmer as well as the #3 overall prospect.

 

And Schneider wouldn't feel forced to plug Zimmer into the 3/4 hole the way he does with Varsho.

 

In hindsight, we should have just kept Moreno, let him compete for a spot, and roll with an OF of Lourdes/KK/Springer, which would have still been a massive defensive upgrade, and a minimal offensive downgrade.

[Stottlemyres_Bloody_Chin]

It just wasn't a great use of resources.

 

Whether or not it was "bad" depends on your lens.

 

 

Agreed. We should have got a lot more for what we gave up.

[Stottlemyres_Bloody_Chin]

I should add I will happily change my tune and jump on the Varsho bandwagon if he becomes the star so many of you think he will become.

 

However I hated this trade right from the start, and so far it looks like I was right.

 

I'd love to be wrong in the end though...

[Spanky__99]

lol

[Stangstag]

I should add I will happily change my tune and jump on the Varsho bandwagon if he becomes the star so many of you think he will become.

 

However I hated this trade right from the start, and so far it looks like I was right.

 

I'd love to be wrong in the end though...

 

Too bad the season is only 45 games long….

 

Varsho is hitting as well as Trea Turner right now.

[Spanky__99]

Too bad the season is only 45 games long….

 

Varsho is hitting as well as Trea Turner right now.

 

And he's sporting a 115 wRC+ in May.

[jaysblue]

Varsho will be a cheap man version of Grady Sizemore. Book it!

[Grant77]

Oh come on, this is revisionist BS. Lets just wait til the end of the year before we start trashing the trade.

 

It's not revisionist at all. I said that the trade was a mistake on the day it was made and have maintained that stance throughout.

[John_Havok]

This is true, grant was never on board with it. Moreno was the next Realmuto.

[Stottlemyres_Bloody_Chin]

Yeah, there's relaly only 2 times to evaluate a trade - right away in which you analyze the process and the idea behind the trade, and then years later.

 

In a vacuum, 4 years of Varsho is far more valuable than 1 year of Gurriel, not even really close. Whether he signs an extension there or not doesnt factor in. The 6+ years of Moreno is what the real deciding factor will be.

 

So if you want to tout the 4 years of Varsho then you can't ignore the 6 years of Moreno. Especially if those 6 years are better than Varsho.

 

Also, 4 years of Varsho isn't necessarily better than 1 year of Gurriel if Varsho continues to suck ass.