Guerrero has a serious launch angle problem (again)

[Brownie19]

He's looking like a gold glove candidate at 1B and is running the bases well. I don't see fitness as a major issue.

 

-4.5 BsR (twice as bad as last year)...and it's 1st base, it's not that hard (source - I played 1st base for the past 15 years with a dad bod).

 

I'm just stirring the pot, but this was a massive discussion point after the 2020 season and we were getting all these updates about how he's working harder than anyone in the world to get in better shape - and the results were obvious. Then after his breakout season, where he announced to MLB that he's a bad, bad man and one of the best young hitters in the game - I heard almost nothing about his fitness/weight again. I don't recall many updates over the winter or reports that he's wants more and is working out as hard as ever.

 

For someone as large as him, it's going to take consistent hard work and effort to maintain his fitness (probably until he retires). I'm a tad worried that he busted his ass after the 2020 season, patted himself on the back and has fallen back to a more relaxed level (which may be the difference between being a top 5 hitter in MLB to a top 50 hitter). I really hope I'm wrong, but I'm a bit surprised that seemingly nobody talked about it this offseason or has brought it up during this season's struggles.

[Laika]

-4.5 BsR (twice as bad as last year)...and it's 1st base, it's not that hard (source - I played 1st base for the past 15 years with a dad bod).

 

I'm just stirring the pot, but this was a massive discussion point after the 2020 season and we were getting all these updates about how he's working harder than anyone in the world to get in better shape - and the results were obvious. Then after his breakout season, where he announced to MLB that he's a bad, bad man and one of the best young hitters in the game - I heard almost nothing about his fitness/weight again. I don't recall many updates over the winter or reports that he's wants more and is working out as hard as ever.

 

For someone as large as him, it's going to take consistent hard work and effort to maintain his fitness (probably until he retires). I'm a tad worried that he busted his ass after the 2020 season, patted himself on the back and has fallen back to a more relaxed level (which may be the difference between being a top 5 hitter in MLB to a top 50 hitter). I really hope I'm wrong, but I'm a bit surprised that seemingly nobody talked about it this offseason or has brought it up during this season's struggles.

 

Yeah I assume similar things.

[Laika]

But perhaps it's not about fitness. He is being pitched differently and it's made him worse.

 

2021

 

31.4% 4 seamers

16.7% sinkers

20.8% sliders

 

so 48.1% fastballs and 20.8% sliders

 

2022

 

26.7% 4 seamers

18.8% sinkers

26.1% sliders

 

So significantly more sliders. And a few more sinkers vs 4 seamers. Many less 4 seamers. He crushed 4 seamers in 2021.

 

Also really interesting is his first pitch swing % is 32.5 the lowest of his career but his overall swing % is 49.2 the highest of his career.

In 2021 he swung a lot at first pitch FASTBALLS and crushed them.

 

You can spin an easy narrative which matches what we see on TV.

 

Lots of first pitch sliders. He is doing the right thing and taking them. But then he is losing the plot for the rest of many plate appearances and gets way too swing happy.

 

His chase % of 29.6 is the worst of his career.

 

His meatball swing % of 80.1 is the worst of his career.

 

 

I think this is more about his gameplan at the plate than it is about fitness.

He KNOWS they are giving him sliders. He does not want to go up there hacking at the first one. But after that he is in between fastball slider and generally without any productive of effective plan at the plate...

[BigCecil]

-4.5 BsR (twice as bad as last year)...and it's 1st base, it's not that hard (source - I played 1st base for the past 15 years with a dad bod).

 

I'm just stirring the pot, but this was a massive discussion point after the 2020 season and we were getting all these updates about how he's working harder than anyone in the world to get in better shape - and the results were obvious. Then after his breakout season, where he announced to MLB that he's a bad, bad man and one of the best young hitters in the game - I heard almost nothing about his fitness/weight again. I don't recall many updates over the winter or reports that he's wants more and is working out as hard as ever.

 

For someone as large as him, it's going to take consistent hard work and effort to maintain his fitness (probably until he retires). I'm a tad worried that he busted his ass after the 2020 season, patted himself on the back and has fallen back to a more relaxed level (which may be the difference between being a top 5 hitter in MLB to a top 50 hitter). I really hope I'm wrong, but I'm a bit surprised that seemingly nobody talked about it this offseason or has brought it up during this season's struggles.

 

Fair. You can raise risks on any player vis a vis a long term deal. Even Judge who is putting up a historical season is someone who I would be leery about signing LT at 30 for 30.

 

Despite Bo's recent unconscious heater you can look at his defensive stats and pitch selection et al, and talk yourself out of a LT deal, and the points about Vlad are real.

 

I think with this FO there is a very good chance one of these two are gone for '25 and both are gone in '26, converted into other assets. Even if we do sign them, I'm not sure they are the essential corner stones many of us thought they would be. Any deal would reflect that in its AAV/term. They have put a ton of dough into aging 30+ assets like Springer, Ryu and Gausman. Sunk a lot into younger guys like Berrios and Kooch who just haven't been very good.

[Brownie19]

Fair. You can raise risks on any player vis a vis a long term deal. Even Judge who is putting up a historical season is someone who I would be leery about signing LT at 30 for 30.

 

Despite Bo's recent unconscious heater you can look at his defensive stats and pitch selection et al, and talk yourself out of a LT deal, and the points about Vlad are real.

 

I think with this FO there is a very good chance one of these two are gone for '25 and both are gone in '26, converted into other assets. Even if we do sign them, I'm not sure they are the essential corner stones many of us thought they would be. Any deal would reflect that in its AAV/term. They have put a ton of dough into aging 30+ assets like Springer, Ryu and Gausman. Sunk a lot into younger guys like Berrios and Kooch who just haven't been very good.

 

That's all fair and I wasn't trying to include LT deals into the discussion (although that's a consideration for sure). I can't imagine a world where both Bo and Vlad are gone by '26. I fully expect Vlad to make the adjustments and settle in as a 145-160 wRC+ hitter. We've seen someone like Bryce Harper go from 197 wRC+ at 22 to a 111 wRC+ at 23 and then settle in as a great hitter in the 155 wRC+ range. Vlad is too talented to "just be" a 130-135 wRC+ hitter IMO.

 

I also think Bo's defense will continue to improve. He works too hard for it not to IMO. I fully expect we'll lock them both up and they will be our cornerstones, for better or for worse.

[Deadpool]

That's all fair and I wasn't trying to include LT deals into the discussion (although that's a consideration for sure). I can't imagine a world where both Bo and Vlad are gone by '26. I fully expect Vlad to make the adjustments and settle in as a 145-160 wRC+ hitter. We've seen someone like Bryce Harper go from 197 wRC+ at 22 to a 111 wRC+ at 23 and then settle in as a great hitter in the 155 wRC+ range. Vlad is too talented to "just be" a 130-135 wRC+ hitter IMO.

 

I also think Bo's defense will continue to improve. He works too hard for it not to IMO. I fully expect we'll lock them both up and they will be our cornerstones, for better or for worse.

 

Not to drag the conversation too far off topic, but I agree with you on Bo's D. He makes some truly amazing plays, and he f***s up easy stuff. I feel like it's probably easier to get a guy to make those routine outs than it is to teach someone how to make highlight reel plays.

[max silver]

Not to drag the conversation too far off topic, but I agree with you on Bo's D. He makes some truly amazing plays, and he f***s up easy stuff. I feel like it's probably easier to get a guy to make those routine outs than it is to teach someone how to make highlight reel plays.

 

Bo's defense seems to go in cycles. He gets into ruts where he makes a ton of errors on easy plays for several weeks at a time, and then gets into a groove where he's very solid for several months at a time. Once he cleans up the errors on routine plays (bad/rushed throws, bobbles on transfer, etc.) the talk of him needing to move off of the position will halt.

[BlueJaysFever]

Yeah its a combination of bad pitch selection (swinging at everything low and away) and missing the mistake pitches (fastball down the middle).

 

He’s just not locked in like he was last year

 

That's a swing path issue. When Vladdy slumps like this his swing path is broken

[Omar]

Players have unique and varying swing planes, so I'm not convinced about launch angle being the definitive metric to analyze Vladdy. It may be a better metric to analyze a given pitcher rather than a batter based on the contact he gives up. I much prefer barrel % which also coincides with LA but LA is derivative of barrell rate to me. Start barreling up balls more and your sweet spot % and launch angle will be optimized to a players swing whatever number of degrees that is for that player.

 

Vladdy needs to swing a lot less imo. If it's a low strike let it alone and try to draw the walk, but swing less. 2021 gave him a hero complex and now he thinks he can hit anything. He can't. All that ******** talk about the trailer/movie was indicative of his mindset. It's not going to get better for him until he fixes what's between his ears (his approach). Ballplayers do not live on natural talent alone.

 

Then again, he's still a kid...

[Daniel Labude]

Players have unique and varying swing planes, so I'm not convinced about launch angle being the definitive metric to analyze Vladdy. It may be a better metric to analyze a given pitcher rather than a batter based on the contact he gives up. I much prefer barrel % which also coincides with LA but LA is derivative of barrell rate to me. Start barreling up balls more and your sweet spot % and launch angle will be optimized to a players swing whatever number of degrees that is for that player.

 

Vladdy needs to swing a lot less imo. If it's a low strike let it alone and try to draw the walk, but swing less. 2021 gave him a hero complex and now he thinks he can hit anything. He can't. All that ******** talk about the trailer/movie was indicative of his mindset. It's not going to get better for him until he fixes what's between his ears (his approach). Ballplayers do not live on natural talent alone.

 

Then again, he's still a kid...

 

I think he needs to choose a plan...look for outside pitches and hit it to RF or anything low and away leave it alone until 2 strikes

[Stangstag]

Players have unique and varying swing planes, so I'm not convinced about launch angle being the definitive metric to analyze Vladdy. It may be a better metric to analyze a given pitcher rather than a batter based on the contact he gives up. I much prefer barrel % which also coincides with LA but LA is derivative of barrell rate to me. Start barreling up balls more and your sweet spot % and launch angle will be optimized to a players swing whatever number of degrees that is for that player.

 

Vladdy needs to swing a lot less imo. If it's a low strike let it alone and try to draw the walk, but swing less. 2021 gave him a hero complex and now he thinks he can hit anything. He can't. All that ******** talk about the trailer/movie was indicative of his mindset. It's not going to get better for him until he fixes what's between his ears (his approach). Ballplayers do not live on natural talent alone.

 

Then again, he's still a kid...

 

Yeah I agree with this. He’s used to being the best player on the field on any given night and he’s not adjusting to the fact that he’s now hitting against some of the greatest pitchers on the planet.

[Spanky__99]

Yeah I agree with this. He’s used to being the best player on the field on any given night and he’s not adjusting to the fact that he’s now hitting against some of the greatest pitchers on the planet.

 

That's silly, he's been in the MLB for quite some time, adjustments haven't been ideal. He's a champ though, I don't worry.

[JaysAllMighty]

That's silly, he's been in the MLB for quite some time, adjustments haven't been ideal. He's a champ though, I don't worry.

 

I'm starting to wonder if he's smart enough to adjust

[Spanky__99]

That's a swing path issue. When Vladdy slumps like this his swing path is broken

 

Like all players. A slump is a slump.

[Spanky__99]

I'm starting to wonder if he's smart enough to adjust

 

That's silly.

[JaysAllMighty]

That's silly.

 

It's been a while now and still no adjustments

[Spanky__99]

It's been a while now and still no adjustments

 

Do you have any other reason why? Tell us, man. Can he rake again like July, through September and the playoffs?

[JaysAllMighty]

Do you have any other reason why? Tell us, man. Can he rake again like July, through September and the playoffs?

 

Well for one his pitch selection is awful

[Spanky__99]

Well for one his pitch selection is awful

 

Recognition, you mean. It was spread out by Laika. We're aware. When he rakes, he rakes, no ******** in that.

[BigCecil]

Players have unique and varying swing planes, so I'm not convinced about launch angle being the definitive metric to analyze Vladdy. It may be a better metric to analyze a given pitcher rather than a batter based on the contact he gives up. I much prefer barrel % which also coincides with LA but LA is derivative of barrell rate to me. Start barreling up balls more and your sweet spot % and launch angle will be optimized to a players swing whatever number of degrees that is for that player.

 

Vladdy needs to swing a lot less imo. If it's a low strike let it alone and try to draw the walk, but swing less. 2021 gave him a hero complex and now he thinks he can hit anything. He can't. All that ******** talk about the trailer/movie was indicative of his mindset. It's not going to get better for him until he fixes what's between his ears (his approach). Ballplayers do not live on natural talent alone.

 

Then again, he's still a kid...

 

This sounds so simplistic and I hesitate to believe it, but I have thought it myself and wondered bud. Early in the yr when he hit 3 HRs vs the Yanks one of which was way way inside he ended up on front page of all the NY papers "Who's Your Vladdy?!". Makes you think you can hit anything. Then he had the Nelson game behind the dish where that idiot ump completely changed the zone arbitrarily on him ringing him up. He really hasnt been on much of a tear since those early days. Not that a 130 wRC+ isn't pretty dam good.

 

Could it be that '21 success and all this stuff has just messed him up for now? In '20 we talked about Launch angle, in '21 we stopped and here we are again talking about LA. I agree with others the swing plane is an issue for sure. His gather and timing seems so off and in between so often.

 

Until he does what Judge does, and makes the pitchers come into him and stops swinging at pitchers strikes and balls off the plate its challenging to generate balls in the air hit hard. He needs to do what he did well in '21, stay back and drive balls away...away. Otherwise he will just keep rolling over. When he comes up now in big spots, sad to say I have so little faith in a good AB from him.

 

Hoping he can turn it around in last month.

[Omar]

This sounds so simplistic and I hesitate to believe it, but I have thought it myself and wondered bud. Early in the yr when he hit 3 HRs vs the Yanks one of which was way way inside he ended up on front page of all the NY papers "Who's Your Vladdy?!". Makes you think you can hit anything. Then he had the Nelson game behind the dish where that idiot ump completely changed the zone arbitrarily on him ringing him up. He really hasnt been on much of a tear since those early days. Not that a 130 wRC+ isn't pretty dam good.

 

Could it be that '21 success and all this stuff has just messed him up for now? In '20 we talked about Launch angle, in '21 we stopped and here we are again talking about LA. I agree with others the swing plane is an issue for sure. His gather and timing seems so off and in between so often.

 

Until he does what Judge does, and makes the pitchers come into him and stops swinging at pitchers strikes and balls off the plate its challenging to generate balls in the air hit hard. He needs to do what he did well in '21, stay back and drive balls away...away. Otherwise he will just keep rolling over. When he comes up now in big spots, sad to say I have so little faith in a good AB from him.

 

Hoping he can turn it around in last month.

 

Someone (Laika?) posted an article on here a while back about the benefits of not swinging, or something along those lines. There is a direct correlation to hitting pitches up in the zone and barrel % and LA. I'm sure the Jays' hitting gurus are aware that anything low in the zone and Vladdy tops the ball resulting in him being the gidp king. Being selective to pitches up in the zone may result in more strike outs for Vladdy but the benefits would out weigh the cost. Why doesn't he make the adjustment? Who knows, but I bet he is aware of all this. Hitting is just really hard.