Minor League Rundown: The 2022 Season So Far

[TwistedLogic]

I was doing them waaaaaaaay back on the MLB blue jays forum before this one split off to get away from the rabble. King picked up the mantle after this board began and my work hours changed. I did them way back when because I worked till 2am and had all kinds of time before going to bed to recap the minors.

 

If I recall correctly, I/we started the daily recaps around 2010ish when Syndergaard, Sanchez, Nicolino and Marisnick were all going through Lansing and we couldn’t stop reading the box scores nightly to see what an amazing future the Jays were about to have.

 

Not to mention household names like Gustavo Pierre, Balbino Fuenmayor, Marcus Knecht, Mike Crouse, Carlos Perez(cotf!), Drew Hutchison, Kenny Wilson, Sean Nolin…good times.

 

 

Might have even been sooner now that I look at some of those old rosters from 2008 , 2009….

 

Tyler Pastornicky, johmeryn Chavez, Mike McDade, AJ Jimenez and Henderson Alvarez…I remember going through those box scores every night

 

This is an awesome rundown, thank you.

[TwistedLogic]

I remember when I had Knecht, Crouse and Sierra all in my top 15 prospects, lmao. Even looking at the prospects that seemed can't-miss or looked like future studs throughout the history since then, it's an absolute wasteland of broken hopes and dreams.

 

Snider, Drabek, Sanchez, Nicolino, Gose, Marisnick, Pompey, Alford, Norris, Hoffman, Tellez, Foley, Harris, etc, etc.

 

Even the guys the Blue Jays or their trading partners converted really weren't that impressive all things considered. Travis and Lawrie were made of paper and flamed out, Osuna f***ed himself, Alvarez did nothing after the trade, d'Arnaud has been decent but generally mediocre. Literally none of the guys sent out in the Marlins, Happ, Tulo or Donaldson trades really came back to haunt them.

 

Up until this regime started converting almost all of their top guys, who were the truly good players that actually came out of the Blue Jays pipeline?

 

Syndergaard is obviously the best. The next clearly has to be Stroman, and then... Maybe it's my 3 AM brain but I can't think of many other names. Are Gomes, d'Arnaud, Boyd and DeSclafani really the next best guys? Over the 10-12ish years of Jays prospects before Vladdy and Bo? I have to be forgetting people because if not, that's f***ing horrifying, lmao.

 

Compare that to players under this regime that have already broken out or have a realistic shot of breaking out and having a long career at the major league level:

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Bo Bichette

Alek Manoah

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Jordan Romano

Alejandro Kirk

Cavan Biggio

Nate Pearson

Santiago Espinal

 

Law of probability tells us that several of these guys will probably end up on a similar list as Lawrie, Alvarez, Travis and Osuna, which is guys that showed promise and didn't amount to much in the long-run, but it certainly looks like this front office is doing a better job of actually developing these players.

[TwistedLogic]

Anyone remember how much hype there was around Nestor Molina within the Jays fanbase? Guy dominated as hard as any pitcher ever has in the Jays system over that short stretch.

 

That kinda name really sobers me up on my hype around guys like Tiedemann, Juenger and Bernal, lol.

[Krylian]

Anyone remember how much hype there was around Nestor Molina within the Jays fanbase? Guy dominated as hard as any pitcher ever has in the Jays system over that short stretch.

 

That kinda name really sobers me up on my hype around guys like Tiedemann, Juenger and Bernal, lol.

 

Molina's stuff was never elite though from what I recall. Impeccable control, and very average stuff. I'm a stuff guy.

 

But yes, a lot of volatility exists with prospects.

[Brownie19]

Molina's stuff was never elite though from what I recall. Impeccable control, and very average stuff. I'm a stuff guy.

 

But yes, a lot of volatility exists with prospects.

 

He had a great change up didn't he?

[AMS528]

Anyone remember how much hype there was around Nestor Molina within the Jays fanbase? Guy dominated as hard as any pitcher ever has in the Jays system over that short stretch.

 

That kinda name really sobers me up on my hype around guys like Tiedemann, Juenger and Bernal, lol.

 

Yes absolutely thought he was going to be great and was disappointed when we traded him (which turned out to be right move). His 2011 season was ridiculous. 130 innings, 148 Ks and only 16 walks through A+ and AA. A bit strange how he suddenly couldn't strike out anyone a year later.

 

There's always a chance of that with those super control based pitchers I guess. Their strikeout numbers should get taken with a grain of salt until the higher levels. Justin Nicolino looked great in 2011/2012 as well.

[Laika]

Molina's stuff was never elite though from what I recall. Impeccable control, and very average stuff. I'm a stuff guy.

 

But yes, a lot of volatility exists with prospects.

 

Yeah Molina was like that guy who came up with Sanchez and Syndergaard that I forget

[The_DH]

Yeah Molina was like that guy who came up with Sanchez and Syndergaard that I forget

 

Molina was a 2-pitch pitcher, one of which was a changeup if I remember correctly. Remember talking to one of the forums about him maybe becoming useful as a short inning reliever that he didn't have enough to start.

[AMS528]

Yeah Molina was like that guy who came up with Sanchez and Syndergaard that I forget

 

Nicolino

[43211234]

I remember when I had Knecht, Crouse and Sierra all in my top 15 prospects, lmao. Even looking at the prospects that seemed can't-miss or looked like future studs throughout the history since then, it's an absolute wasteland of broken hopes and dreams.

 

Snider, Drabek, Sanchez, Nicolino, Gose, Marisnick, Pompey, Alford, Norris, Hoffman, Tellez, Foley, Harris, etc, etc.

 

Even the guys the Blue Jays or their trading partners converted really weren't that impressive all things considered. Travis and Lawrie were made of paper and flamed out, Osuna f***ed himself, Alvarez did nothing after the trade, d'Arnaud has been decent but generally mediocre. Literally none of the guys sent out in the Marlins, Happ, Tulo or Donaldson trades really came back to haunt them.

 

Up until this regime started converting almost all of their top guys, who were the truly good players that actually came out of the Blue Jays pipeline?

 

Syndergaard is obviously the best. The next clearly has to be Stroman, and then... Maybe it's my 3 AM brain but I can't think of many other names. Are Gomes, d'Arnaud, Boyd and DeSclafani really the next best guys? Over the 10-12ish years of Jays prospects before Vladdy and Bo? I have to be forgetting people because if not, that's f***ing horrifying, lmao.

 

Compare that to players under this regime that have already broken out or have a realistic shot of breaking out and having a long career at the major league level:

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Bo Bichette

Alek Manoah

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Jordan Romano

Alejandro Kirk

Cavan Biggio

Nate Pearson

Santiago Espinal

 

Law of probability tells us that several of these guys will probably end up on a similar list as Lawrie, Alvarez, Travis and Osuna, which is guys that showed promise and didn't amount to much in the long-run, but it certainly looks like this front office is doing a better job of actually developing these players.

 

It can't be understated how horrendous this franchise was for more than 15 years at developing position player talent. Pitching wasn't great either but I'll just focus on the position players here.

 

 

Here's some WAR totals from Fangraphs on the value some notable homegrown (drafted or signed as IFA) players provided the Blue Jays in their career. For those that entered the organization from the year 2000 until players like Gurriel Jr., Jansen, Bichette, Biggio, Guerrero started showing up in 2018, 2019.

 

Aaron Hill: 12.4 WAR for the Blue Jays

Kevin Pillar: 8.5 WAR

Adam Lind: 7.0 WAR

Travis Snider: 1.7 WAR

Ryan Goins: 0.5 WAR

Dalton Pompey: 0.2 WAR

Eric Thames: -0.1 WAR

JP Arencibia: -0.3 WAR

Moises Sierra: -0.7 WAR

 

 

That isn't a complete leaderboard and I'm sure there are a bunch of guys that only played 70 games and put up like 0.6 WAR in their Blue Jays career. I just picked some position players of "note"

 

THE BLUE JAYS HAVE NOT HAD A HOMEGROWN PLAYER PROVIDE THEM WITH AT LEAST 10 WAR FOR THEIR CAREER SINCE DRAFTING AARON HILL IN 2003

 

 

 

 

 

THE BLUE JAYS HAVE NOT HAD A HOMEGROWN PLAYER PROVIDE THEM WITH AT LEAST 10 WAR FOR THEIR CAREER SINCE DRAFTING AARON HILL IN 2003

 

 

 

That might be the worst record in all major NA sports franchises.

 

 

Vladdy is going to break that trend this season though.

 

 

Maybe I forgot a player but I don't think I did.

[John_Havok]

It can't be understated how horrendous this franchise was for more than 15 years at developing position player talent. Pitching wasn't great either but I'll just focus on the position players here.

 

 

Here's some WAR totals from Fangraphs on the value some notable homegrown (drafted or signed as IFA) players provided the Blue Jays in their career. For those that entered the organization from the year 2000 until players like Gurriel Jr., Jansen, Bichette, Biggio, Guerrero started showing up in 2018, 2019.

 

Aaron Hill: 12.4 WAR for the Blue Jays

Kevin Pillar: 8.5 WAR

Adam Lind: 7.0 WAR

Travis Snider: 1.7 WAR

Ryan Goins: 0.5 WAR

Dalton Pompey: 0.2 WAR

Eric Thames: -0.1 WAR

JP Arencibia: -0.3 WAR

Moises Sierra: -0.7 WAR

 

 

That isn't a complete leaderboard and I'm sure there are a bunch of guys that only played 70 games and put up like 0.6 WAR in their Blue Jays career. I just picked some position players of "note"

 

THE BLUE JAYS HAVE NOT HAD A HOMEGROWN PLAYER PROVIDE THEM WITH AT LEAST 10 WAR FOR THEIR CAREER SINCE DRAFTING AARON HILL IN 2003

 

 

 

 

 

THE BLUE JAYS HAVE NOT HAD A HOMEGROWN PLAYER PROVIDE THEM WITH AT LEAST 10 WAR FOR THEIR CAREER SINCE DRAFTING AARON HILL IN 2003

 

 

 

That might be the worst record in all major NA sports franchises.

 

 

Vladdy is going to break that trend this season though.

 

 

Maybe I forgot a player but I don't think I did.

 

Jp Ricciardi was the GM from 2001 to 2009. Pretty much explains all of that with his draft philosophy and gutting the scouting dept.

 

Then AA came along and got them started back on the right track but yeah, it really did take until the current regime to see meaningful impacts.

[Deadpool]

Jp Ricciardi was the GM from 2001 to 2009. Pretty much explains all of that with his draft philosophy and gutting the scouting dept.

 

Then AA came along and got them started back on the right track but yeah, it really did take until the current regime to see meaningful impacts.

 

Ricciardi really leaned into the "budget limitations", and drafted accordingly. High floor, low ceiling guys. The sort of guys who definitely make the MLB, but probably aren't going to do anything notable.

[John_Havok]

Ricciardi really leaned into the "budget limitations", and drafted accordingly. High floor, low ceiling guys. The sort of guys who definitely make the MLB, but probably aren't going to do anything notable.

 

It was horrifying. Up and down his draft lists are nothing buts random cups of coffee, part time nobodies, backup catchers and future relievers.

 

His draft record was beyond horrendous

[RustyTrombone]

Its really interesting aswell that before the well ran dry from about 2004 to 2017-2018 n terms of home grown position players there were actually quite a few very successfully home grown guys like Wells, Rios, Delgado, Green, Cruz Jr, Shannon Stewart. Those mid 2000 teams could have atleast had a couple of wild card runs if a couple of young position players broke through.

[TwistedLogic]

Yes absolutely thought he was going to be great and was disappointed when we traded him (which turned out to be right move). His 2011 season was ridiculous. 130 innings, 148 Ks and only 16 walks through A+ and AA. A bit strange how he suddenly couldn't strike out anyone a year later.

 

There's always a chance of that with those super control based pitchers I guess. Their strikeout numbers should get taken with a grain of salt until the higher levels. Justin Nicolino looked great in 2011/2012 as well.

 

That was such a good trade by AA too. Sergio Santos at that time was on a deal like Emmanuel Clase right now. It obviously didn't work out for either side but selling that high on Molina could have been amazing had Santos not been so injury-prone.

[TwistedLogic]

Jp Ricciardi was the GM from 2001 to 2009. Pretty much explains all of that with his draft philosophy and gutting the scouting dept.

 

Then AA came along and got them started back on the right track but yeah, it really did take until the current regime to see meaningful impacts.

 

AA's front office was great at drafting and signing guys, they just sucked absolute ass at developing them into major league players.

[John_Havok]

AA's front office was great at drafting and signing guys, they just sucked absolute ass at developing them into major league players.

 

Yeah that's what i was hinting at with him starting to get back on the right track. He hired an army of scouts, crosscheckers, evaluators etc and as a result got some guys that other teams were nowhere near. Step 1 - done. Definitely not so good at step 2 of the development, but it was better than under JPR, even if he ended up trading them all rather than keeping them in house.

 

AA really shined in gaming the then ridiculous Type A and B compensation system for extra draft picks too.