Season win totals

[Dick_Pole]

My bookie has season win totals up. Most of them are within 2 wins of the Fangraphs projections with a few exceptions:

 

TB 89.5 versus 86.5 on Fangraphs. First time I've seen the bookies overstate the Rays wins this much. I guess that market efficiency is gone. Considering taking the under but will wait to hear from Hurl since he is the Rays whisperer.

 

BAL 61.5 versus 65 on FG. It's actually tempting to take the over on this number. Their team isn't nearly as bad as past years indicate but they could easily get tossed around in the AL East again. The trauma of having to cheer on the Orioles may be too much to ever take an over. Just that they are no longer an easy under.

 

Seattle way overstated. 84.5 versus 80 on FG. The bonus being the under is practically even money at -105. I took this number.

 

Cardinals win total is 86.5, overstated by 3 versus projections.

 

Pirates 65.5, understated by three. I was really hoping to go under here but now I'm not so sure.

 

Rockies are overstated by 3. Diamondbacks understated by 3. Rockies seem like another easy under that I took.

 

When I saw the FG number on the Tigers of 75 I was hoping to nibble on the over. But too many people think the same way I do. The Tigers number is 78.5 and -130 on the over. Almost tempting to leave my biases at the door and go under for +100.

 

Jays over number sucks at 91.5 and -140 so it's barely worth it but I put a small amount because I'm a fanboy.

 

In addition to the Mariners and Rockies I also took the Reds under 74.5.

[Laika]

take the over on Baltimore, that seems too harsh. they are going to have Rutschman and Mullins and then like five non-zero position players behind them. Some of the young arms projected for almost nothing are actually somewhat interesting.

[mellowgold]

I could see them taking that big step from laughable to terrible this year. But imagine having to play 47% of your games against the Jays/Yanks/Sox/Rays.

[Krylian]

I could see them taking that big step from laughable to terrible this year. But imagine having to play 47% of your games against the Jays/Yanks/Sox/Rays.

 

Didn't they give the Yankees fits last season?

[Terminator]

Orioles aren’t that bad but the schedule is scary. They can pile up losses in a hurry in the AL East. I think they went 1-17 against the Rays or something like that?

[Terminator]

Pirates are kind of tempting to go the over tbh. The pitching is an absolute disaster but the lineup actually isn’t that bad and their division isn’t very good.

[TheHurl]

My bookie has season win totals up. Most of them are within 2 wins of the Fangraphs projections with a few exceptions:

 

TB 89.5 versus 86.5 on Fangraphs. First time I've seen the bookies overstate the Rays wins this much. I guess that market efficiency is gone. Considering taking the under but will wait to hear from Hurl since he is the Rays whisperer.

 

BAL 61.5 versus 65 on FG. It's actually tempting to take the over on this number. Their team isn't nearly as bad as past years indicate but they could easily get tossed around in the AL East again. The trauma of having to cheer on the Orioles may be too much to ever take an over. Just that they are no longer an easy under.

 

Seattle way overstated. 84.5 versus 80 on FG. The bonus being the under is practically even money at -105. I took this number.

 

Cardinals win total is 86.5, overstated by 3 versus projections.

 

Pirates 65.5, understated by three. I was really hoping to go under here but now I'm not so sure.

 

Rockies are overstated by 3. Diamondbacks understated by 3. Rockies seem like another easy under that I took.

 

When I saw the FG number on the Tigers of 75 I was hoping to nibble on the over. But too many people think the same way I do. The Tigers number is 78.5 and -130 on the over. Almost tempting to leave my biases at the door and go under for +100.

 

Jays over number sucks at 91.5 and -140 so it's barely worth it but I put a small amount because I'm a fanboy.

 

In addition to the Mariners and Rockies I also took the Reds under 74.5.

 

I think the Rays market efficiency has finally dried up. The better bet on them is 2.85 to not make the playoffs. Even with the 3rd wildcard if you think they are going under 90, you may as well take the extra juice on this bet.