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Verified Member
Posted
Just hoping we'll save enough to sign Holman. That's $110K right there from Hoglund, albeit it may end up being for Irv Carter.
Posted (edited)

Garrett Spain

 

 

Sounds like a goodbye to Austin Peay

Edited by Krylian
Posted
Just hoping we'll save enough to sign Holman. That's $110K right there from Hoglund, albeit it may end up being for Irv Carter.

 

slightly underslot was always in the range of reasonable options. With this and the 5% overage we have about 400k overslot to give to others. I just don't really see enough elsewhere to get that number high enough for both Carter and Holman.

Posted
Just hoping we'll save enough to sign Holman. That's $110K right there from Hoglund, albeit it may end up being for Irv Carter.

 

I still don't see how or where that money would come from. Irv Carter's slot value is only $350K; I can't imagine that a HS prospect of his caliber is signing for anything below $700K - so a $110K haircut on Hoglund's bonus probably doesn't do anything to help us go even more aggressively overslot on Holman.

Posted
I still don't see how or where that money would come from. Irv Carter's slot value is only $350K; I can't imagine that a HS prospect of his caliber is signing for anything below $700K - so a $110K haircut on Hoglund's bonus probably doesn't do anything to help us go even more aggressively overslot on Holman.

 

Only way they sign Holman is if they decide that they'd rather throw all the extra cash at him and leave Irv unsigned. I don't see a scenario where they land both...unless there are at least a couple of $5K signings in our mid rounds.

Posted
Only way they sign Holman is if they decide that they'd rather throw all the extra cash at him and leave Irv unsigned. I don't see a scenario where they land both...unless there are at least a couple of $5K signings in our mid rounds.

 

I agree with you but Irv did throw alot of negotiating power away with all the talk he did after being drafted, He kept saying Im signing as well. There is a reason the Jays took Holman in the 40th round but we just dont know what it is, all the other teams that called Holman on draft day now can't sign him, and Holman actually is quoted as saying he hopes he did the right thing by turning down those big offers. So maybe the Jays felt they could swing him, Lets just see how this plays one thing we know for sure is they will not exceed the 5% these are the penalties if you do:

 

Teams that exceed their bonus pool face a penalty. Clubs that outspend their allotment by 0-5 percent pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. At higher thresholds, clubs lose future picks: a first-rounder and a 75 percent tax for surpassing their pool by between 5-10 percent; a first- and a second-rounder and a 100 percent tax for between 10-15 percent; and two first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for going more than 15 percent over their pool allotment.

Posted

If the Jays hadn't picked up Holman with their last pick, the Rays were about to nab him with theirs.

 

Would be awesome if they could find some magic and sign both Carter and Holman.

Verified Member
Posted

According to Callis, Hoglund was the first 1st rounder to sign.

 

 

I thought the Mets signed Kumar Rocker?

Posted
I agree with you but Irv did throw alot of negotiating power away with all the talk he did after being drafted, He kept saying Im signing as well.

 

That's not how that works. The team calls before the pick is even made and confirms/comes to an agreement in principle on the bonus amount. That's why his family was celebrating before the pick was even made and knew that he was about to be selected at that very moment - they had an agreement in place with the Blue Jays to select him there. So of course he's going to openly say "I'm signing" after the fact, because he wouldn't have been drafted there if he wasn't signing for a pre-agreed upon amount. That amount that was pre-agreed upon is almost definitely going to be over-slot, based off of his leverage/standing in the draft. Now, we can more or less estimate the realistic amount that it would take to sign a HS pitcher of his ranking, and the numbers around that estimate don't really give much room for Holman unless there is some EXTREME savings in the remaining Top 10 picks. Keep in mind that the 19 year old JUCO kid we took in the 3rd round might also get a bit over slot, and we also took a HS OF as well who while unranked, might have also struck a deal for a marginally over-slot bonus (he did have a scholarship to Notre Dame).

 

There is a reason the Jays took Holman in the 40th round but we just dont know what it is, all the other teams that called Holman on draft day now can't sign him, and Holman actually is quoted as saying he hopes he did the right thing by turning down those big offers. So maybe the Jays felt they could swing him, Lets just see how this plays one thing we know for sure is they will not exceed the 5% these are the penalties if you do:

 

I think you're reaching pretty hard in trying to find a "reason". The Rangers also drafted Will Taylor in the final round, and his realistic price tag is probably in the $4+ million range (hence why he ultimately wasn't drafted in the 10-20 range despite having the talent to go there) and the Rangers most certainly didn't save up $4+ million to give him. There were also other obvious "this kid is going to school" selections from other teams too; like Gage Jump to the Padres.

Posted
I agree with you but Irv did throw alot of negotiating power away with all the talk he did after being drafted, He kept saying Im signing as well. There is a reason the Jays took Holman in the 40th round but we just dont know what it is, all the other teams that called Holman on draft day now can't sign him, and Holman actually is quoted as saying he hopes he did the right thing by turning down those big offers. So maybe the Jays felt they could swing him, Lets just see how this plays one thing we know for sure is they will not exceed the 5% these are the penalties if you do:

 

Teams that exceed their bonus pool face a penalty. Clubs that outspend their allotment by 0-5 percent pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. At higher thresholds, clubs lose future picks: a first-rounder and a 75 percent tax for surpassing their pool by between 5-10 percent; a first- and a second-rounder and a 100 percent tax for between 10-15 percent; and two first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for going more than 15 percent over their pool allotment.

 

Wonder if you'll ever see a team go full IFA circa 2014 mode where they just say screw it and blast way past the limits and say we'll take the best talent available at all 20 picks pay each of them what it takes to sign them and go 2 years without a 1st rounder and hope it more than makes up for it.

Posted

If the Jays hadn't picked up Holman with their last pick, the Rays were about to nab him with theirs.

 

Would be awesome if they could find some magic and sign both Carter and Holman.

 

How do you know that? Did they have a selection after us in the 20th rd?

Posted
How do you know that? Did they have a selection after us in the 20th rd?

 

It was mentioned in the article I posted earlier in the thread

 

"Luke, a two-time All-Berks pick, said Tuesday that teams continued to talk to him through the 10th round. He said Toronto and Tampa Bay, which had the draft’s second-to-last pick, then said they’d select him in the 20th round."

Posted
How do you know that? Did they have a selection after us in the 20th rd?

 

Yup. And Holman or his dad mentioned in one of the articles that both the Jays and Rays had notified them that they'd take them in the 20th round.

Posted
It was mentioned in the article I posted earlier in the thread

 

"Luke, a two-time All-Berks pick, said Tuesday that teams continued to talk to him through the 10th round. He said Toronto and Tampa Bay, which had the draft’s second-to-last pick, then said they’d select him in the 20th round."

 

So Birds cock blocked em' sweet!

Posted
Yup. And Holman or his dad mentioned in one of the articles that both the Jays and Rays had notified them that they'd take them in the 20th round.

 

Oh yeah, and hinted at higher than 500K.

Posted
Wonder if you'll ever see a team go full IFA circa 2014 mode where they just say screw it and blast way past the limits and say we'll take the best talent available at all 20 picks pay each of them what it takes to sign them and go 2 years without a 1st rounder and hope it more than makes up for it.

 

Doubt it. We saw heavy spenders before slots/pool were a thing but I don't ever recall anyone just drafting every high ranked high-school kid and throwing money around like a drunken sailor.

Posted
Doubt it. We saw heavy spenders before slots/pool were a thing but I don't ever recall anyone just drafting every high ranked high-school kid and throwing money around like a drunken sailor.

 

Didn't the Red Sox spend like 80 million dollars in IFA one year and accept penalties for 2 years because of it. It's essentially the same kind of deal Instead of 1 1st rounder a couple decent players and a bunch of stuff 1 year and you get you keep two 1st rounders, you get 1 1st rounder, 19 solid players and lose 2 1st rounder as a result.

 

Money aside I'd take 19 guys ranked between 30-300 in a draft over lets say what we picked this year and 2 1st round picks. Money included it gets a little more ridiculous, but if the Red Sox were willing to pay that much for prospects before maybe someone would do it again.

Verified Member
Posted
Didn't the Red Sox spend like 80 million dollars in IFA one year and accept penalties for 2 years because of it. It's essentially the same kind of deal Instead of 1 1st rounder a couple decent players and a bunch of stuff 1 year and you get you keep two 1st rounders, you get 1 1st rounder, 19 solid players and lose 2 1st rounder as a result.

 

Money aside I'd take 19 guys ranked between 30-300 in a draft over lets say what we picked this year and 2 1st round picks. Money included it gets a little more ridiculous, but if the Red Sox were willing to pay that much for prospects before maybe someone would do it again.

 

They signed Yoan Moncada in 2015 for $32M (for which they also paid another $32M in overage fees) and they were incredibly restricted in the following 2 IFA classes. So in all, they spent $64M on one guy and were also unable to sign players for the next 2 classes.

 

Pretty crazy, but it net them Sale which netted them a World Series. So probably worth it.

Posted
Didn't the Red Sox spend like 80 million dollars in IFA one year and accept penalties for 2 years because of it. It's essentially the same kind of deal Instead of 1 1st rounder a couple decent players and a bunch of stuff 1 year and you get you keep two 1st rounders, you get 1 1st rounder, 19 solid players and lose 2 1st rounder as a result.

 

Money aside I'd take 19 guys ranked between 30-300 in a draft over lets say what we picked this year and 2 1st round picks. Money included it gets a little more ridiculous, but if the Red Sox were willing to pay that much for prospects before maybe someone would do it again.

 

Teams have done the IFA thing (don't think it was $80m... Unless you're counting some Japanese or Cuban signings), but I was referring specifically to the MLB draft.

Posted
Dumb question time. Could the Jays have drafted me in the 20th round and offered me $1 to sign and then used the other $124,999 to sign someone else?
Posted
Dumb question time. Could the Jays have drafted me in the 20th round and offered me $1 to sign and then used the other $124,999 to sign someone else?

 

No. They'd need to draft you in one of the first 10 rounds and offer you the $1 for that to work.

Posted
No. They'd need to draft you in one of the first 10 rounds and offer you the $1 for that to work.

 

Can you (or someone) explain this? What happens to the guys drafted 10-20?

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