MLB 2020 Draft

[BlueRocky]

How projectable are those results in the MLB given the average FB.

 

There’s just as high correlation between FB spin rate (2450 RPM+) and FB/breaking ball velocity separation, vertical and horizontal movement, to swinging strike % than just pure FB top velo.

 

The guy throws a 2-seamer with movement, doesn’t walk people, has a nasty curveball and good changeup. And he’s shown to be very effective in college. He isn’t a midget either, the guy is 6-2, 210. Maybe he can add 2 MPH, who knows?

 

If he retracts to 8.5 K/9 and 3 BB/9 that’s still a solid lefty rotation arm in the MLB.

 

General consensus in the scouting industry, Reid Detmers has one of the highest floors out of all the arms in this class. It’s easy to see him fitting as a #4 starter with some upside for more.

[glory]

 

Man, I know MLB wants to save money, but a 5 round draft even in these circumstances sounds very light.

[Brownie19]

 

Man, I know MLB wants to save money, but a 5 round draft even in these circumstances sounds very light.

 

yeah f*** that s***.

[CBlake]

 

Man, I know MLB wants to save money, but a 5 round draft even in these circumstances sounds very light.

 

But if things are not up and running where are you going to send anyone? Wonder if we may see some more fall ball in addition to the AFL to get guys more games if there is not an milb season?

[Spanky99]

S'up fellas???

[Krylian]

There’s just as high correlation between FB spin rate (2450 RPM+) and FB/breaking ball velocity separation, vertical and horizontal movement, to swinging strike % than just pure FB top velo.

 

The guy throws a 2-seamer with movement, doesn’t walk people, has a nasty curveball and good changeup. And he’s shown to be very effective in college. He isn’t a midget either, the guy is 6-2, 210. Maybe he can add 2 MPH, who knows?

 

If he retracts to 8.5 K/9 and 3 BB/9 that’s still a solid lefty rotation arm in the MLB.

 

General consensus in the scouting industry, Reid Detmers has one of the highest floors out of all the arms in this class. It’s easy to see him fitting as a #4 starter with some upside for more.

 

That's fair. But the thought of a 5th overall pick settling in as #4 starter just feels like a disappointment. I know maybe that's worst case, but I feel like it's far more likely than him becoming a #2. Just what my gut is telling.

[KevinGregg]

That's fair. But the thought of a 5th overall pick settling in as #4 starter just feels like a disappointment. I know maybe that's worst case, but I feel like it's far more likely than him becoming a #2. Just what my gut is telling.

 

I don't want a f***ing number 4 starter. If I'm drafting a pitcher its cuz I think he might be a future ace. Otherwise go with a position player and trade for established pitching when needed

[BlueRocky]

Whatever team takes Detmers in the 8-20 range is probably gonna be happy with their pick.

this

[BlueRocky]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-draft-mailbag-comparing-top-2020-prospects-to-the-2019-class/

 

MLB Draft Mailbag: Comparing Top 2020 Prospects To The 2019 Class

 

By Carlos Collazo

on April 28, 2020

 

Last week’s draft chat had plenty of interesting questions. While I couldn’t get to all of them at the time, I put a few in my pocket to expand on at a later date.

 

That date has come.

 

Below are answers to five questions about the 2020 draft class, including questions about comparing the top talent in the 2019 and 2020 classes, ranking college shortstops, finding all-star potential among players ranked in the second round and more.

 

Mock draft of the top 6 last year and top 6 this year. Who are you taking 1-12?

 

-All Work and No Play from Overlook Hotel

 

In some ways this is a follow up to another question I got in the chat about which top six I would rather have: the 2019 group or the 2020 group? I leaned towards the 2019 group and the fact that Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman is clearly the best talent of the twelve players helped me in coming to that decision.

 

This question is asking for a bit more. Let’s tackle it. Just for the purposes of clarity, I’ll go 1-12 with no regard to the teams who could be taking the players—just lining up the talent as best I can.

 

A few caveats: you could arrange these names in a number of different ways and it would make sense. This is just my best attempt to do it. Additionally, we have more pro information from the 2019 class, so if you wanted to put CJ Abrams significantly higher because of his loud debut, that would make sense. You could also try and ignore any post-draft information and line them up based on our pre-draft ranks and nothing more.

 

I’ve taken a bit of a hybrid between these two approaches as you will see from my list when comparing it with our current Top 100 Prospects.

 

In case you forgot about how the players lined up in both classes:

 

2019

Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State

Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville (Texas) Heritage High

Andrew Vaughn, 1B, California

CJ Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity High, Roswell, Ga.

Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS, Oviedo, Fla.

JJ Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt

 

2020

Austin Martin, OF, Vanderbilt

Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State

Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M

Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia

Nick Gonzales, SS, New Mexico State

Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA

 

Here’s how I would personally line these guys up now with all the information I have now and my personal biases on players included in the list.

 

C Adley Rutschman

SS Bobby Witt Jr.

OF Austin Martin

1B Spencer Torkelson

SS CJ Abrams

LHP Asa Lacy

1B Andrew Vaughn

OF Riley Greene

RHP Emerson Hancock

SS Nick Gonzales

OF Garrett Mitchell

OF JJ Bleday

 

Abrams might be the biggest wild card on this list. At least a few of my colleagues prefer him to Witt Jr. because of his running ability and pure bat-to-ball skills, so he could jump from No. 5 all the way to No. 2 and that wouldn’t be crazy. I have personally always been high on Witt Jr. and of this list of twelve players he’s probably the only one who sticks at shortstop long term. I put a lot of value in that.

 

The last three bats on the list were also difficult to separate. I went with Gonzales at the top because of my confidence in his pure hit tool and his ability to stick on the dirt in some capacity and then center field defense and all-around tools helped me put Mitchell in the No. 11 spot instead of Bleday.

 

So that’s my list. I’m curious where you guys agree and disagree. If you want to send me your own personal 1-12 of this player group, feel free to shoot that to me on Twitter (@CarlosACollazo)

 

Can you rank the college SS and assign a round value to the top few? Thanks.

 

-Sam from Miss

 

Sure thing. This ranking stems from our current draft list, so if you wanted to find out how I would line any position up you can go to the list and filter by position. There would be an extra step in this specific case of just eliminating the high school players who are included, but the filter gets you halfway there.

 

Once we’ve done that, here are the top college shortstops on our draft board:

 

Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State

Casey Martin, Arkansas

Nick Loftin, Baylor

Alika Williams, Arizona State

Jordan Westburg, Mississippi State

Freddy Zamora, Miami

Anthony Servideo, Mississippi

Jimmy Glowenke, Dallas Baptist

Luke Waddell, Georgia Tech

Hayden Cantrelle, Louisiana-Lafayette

And here is how I would separate those players into different round tiers:

 

Top of the first: Nick Gonzales

First-second round: Casey Martin, Nick Loftin, Alika Williams, Jordan Westburg

Second-fourth round: Freddy Zamora, Anthony Servideo

Third-fifth round: Jimmy Glowenke, Luke Waddell, Hayden Cantrelle

 

We heard a lot of good things about the college shortstop class last year and even over the summer, but the group is a bit more shallow than I would have expected. That’s due to a few different things.

 

The biggest one is that Austin Martin never once handled the position for Vanderbilt after some rumors that he could move from the hot corner to shortstop this season. Instead he moved from third base to center field, and now most of the industry believes shortstop would be a long shot with him after entering the year excited to see how he would look at the position.

 

After Martin, we go to Gonzales, who played second base for New Mexico State before sliding over to shortstop this spring. It’s more likely that Gonzales winds up at second base, where his short-area quickness, range and arm strength are probably a better fit. Still, there are some scouts who believe he could handle the position with more reps. He’s a work-in-progress at the position and needs to refine his rhythm, timing and footwork to stick, but depending on the defensive philosophy of the organization that drafts him, he could do enough to stick there.

 

 

Both Martin and Gonzales are locks to go in the first round but they are far from locks to actually be shortstops long term.

 

Casey Martin is the last player we should touch on in detail here, as he was ranked as a top-of-the-first-round talent in January—we ranked him No. 13 in our Top 200 list—thanks to his toolset and upside. He was a wild card at the time thanks to questions about the playability of those tools and didn’t answer any of those questions in a limited 2020 season, and could slide out of the first round because of those concerns.

 

Compare the 2020 group with a 2019 class that had five college shortstops selected and signed in the first round: Bryson Stott (14 to the Phillies), Will Wilson (15 to the Angels), Braden Shewmake (21 to the Braves), Greg Jones (22 to the Rays) and Logan Davidson (29 to the Athletics).

 

You were a little "light" on C Dillon Dingler out of the gates it seems. Now sounds as though he has a good chance to be a 1st rounder. What is his ceiling? Top 15?

 

-JR Impact from Tampa

 

Yep. We had Dingler ranked No. 93 on our first combined draft list and he remained in the same spot when we expanded to the Top 200.

 

On our next two updates, Dingler jumped up into the 72-75 range, and now on our current draft list we have him up even more at No. 37 as the No. 4 catcher in the class. On a recent draft podcast, I talked a little bit about how players can continue to move around the board without games being played if you’re curious to hear more about that.

 

The short version is we continue getting more information and feedback from teams.

 

Dingler is an interesting prospect and has a number of traits that have allowed him to continue rising up the board, but the first thing that’s worth mentioning is that he has steadily improved his offensive numbers in every season with Ohio State. Here’s his OPS in every season:

 

2018 — .701

2019 — .816

2020 — 1.164

 

While that 2020 sample included just 13 games, Dingler still managed to hit a career-best five home runs in that period and scouts were excited about how he was more regularly tapping into his plus raw power. Maybe it shouldn’t be surprising that he was hitting for more impact as he got further and further away from a hamate injury that limited him in 2019, but previously scouts were concerned that he was more of an ambush power hitter than a consistent impact bat.

 

When you combine his offensive potential and growth with his defensive skillset and athleticism at the position, you’re looking at a guy with a chance to be an everyday catcher at the big league level. That’s obviously incredibly valuable. Part of the reason we might have been a bit lower on Dingler is because he didn’t play over the summer. That’s a bias that can be difficult to avoid at times, and we’ll have to keep that in mind moving forward.

 

Another part of that is the scouts we talked to earlier in the process were more skeptical of his offensive potential than a lot of the evaluators we’ve spoken to lately. One long-time crosschecker told me he would be surprised if Dingler got out of the top 40. I think his ceiling in the draft is somewhere in the middle of the first round.

 

What college seniors other than Landon Knack could you see being drafted in a 10 round draft?

 

-Devin from Columbus

 

Devin has correctly identified the top senior in the 2020 class and I’ve had a number of conversations with scouts who believe that Knack is going to be the first senior off the board this year. His transformation is legit and his track record as a strike thrower is exceptional.

 

But beyond Knack, there are some interesting seniors to be aware of. Here are the four beyond Knack who currently rank on the BA 400.

 

No. 283 — Jack Hartman, RHP, Appalachian State

 

No. 299 — Cam Shepherd, SS, Georgia

 

No. 344 — Luke Smith, RHP, Louisville

 

No. 355 — John McMillon, RHP, Texas Tech

 

Hartman has a fastball that gets up to 97 and a breaking ball that looks like a no-doubt plus offering when it’s on; Shepherd ranked No. 247 on the 2019 BA 500 and is a well-rounded performer in the SEC without a ton of tools; Smith has a solid three-pitch mix with a clean delivery and athleticism; McMillon has a fastball that gets into the mid-to-upper-90s and a slider that’s been an out pitch as well, but has been pretty erratic.

 

Outside of those names, here are a few other seniors who I think are interesting and could be in BA 500 consideration: Bradlee Beesley, OF, Cal Poly; McClain O’Connor, SS, UC Santa Barbara; Trevin Esquerra, 1B/OF, Loyola Marymount; Nolan McCarthy, RHP, Occidental (Calif.); Scott McKeon, SS, Coastal Carolina; and Harrison Ray, 2B, Vanderbilt.

 

It will be interesting to see how teams handle college seniors in the 2020 draft. With a five-round draft I wouldn’t expect many of those players to be drafted and I would imagine there are fewer than a typical year in a 10-round draft as well.

 

Undrafted seniors are a different story and I’m sure there will be a number who I just don’t know a ton about at this point that teams like for one reason or another.

 

Who are some prospects you expect to go in the second round that has all star potential?

 

-Jon from Baltimore

 

This has been a college-heavy mailbag so far, so I’ll use this last question to focus on a few high-upside prep prospects we currently have in the second-round range who I believe have significant upside. Almost all of the players in this range on the high school side do have plenty of upside, which is why they rank here, but perhaps a few other questions that hold them back.

 

Third baseman Jordan Walker out of Decatur (Ga.) High is the top-ranked prep in this range, and he’s got some of the better power potential in the 2020 high school class, right up there with Austin Hendrick and Blaze Jordan. If he hits he could be a monster.

 

Righthander Jared Jones and righthander/shortstop Masyn Winn always jump out to me with questions like this. Both are exceptionally athletic two-way players at the high school level with massive raw stuff on the mound. Winn probably has more pro upside as a hitter than Jones does, but both have fastballs in the upper 90s and potentially plus secondaries as well. They are undersized, which is a concern, but they both have tons of talent.

 

Lefthander Dax Fulton would likely rank as a first-round talent if he hadn’t undergone Tommy John surgery. A 6-foot-6, 225-pound southpaw with great feel for repeating his delivery, plus potential with a fastball and curveball there are some comparisons here with Matthew Liberatore and Spencer Jones in previous draft classes.

 

Outfielder Dylan Crews was once thought of as one of the best hitters in the 2020 prep class. A disappointing summer raised questions about his hit tool, but I have seen him when everything is clicking and there’s a lot to like. Crews has a gorgeous righthanded swing that doesn’t have a lot of moving parts and when he’s not expanding the zone he has a lot of impact potential from the right side. He’s probably a corner guy but I like his instincts in the outfield and arm strength as well.

 

It’s hard to not throw righthander Justin Lange into this conversation as well. He’s a good one to end on as a high school pitcher who has already touched 100 mph and has a projectable, 6-foot-4, 191-pound frame. Lange is incredibly raw, but his pure arm talent is among the best in this class. If a team can channel that and refine it at the next level … watch out.

 

Those are a few of the names who intrigue me in this range.

[BlueRocky]

Jonathan Mayo mocked the Blue Jays picking Nick Gonzales: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2020-mlb-mock-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

[jaysguy44]

There’s just as high correlation between FB spin rate (2450 RPM+) and FB/breaking ball velocity separation, vertical and horizontal movement, to swinging strike % than just pure FB top velo.

 

The guy throws a 2-seamer with movement, doesn’t walk people, has a nasty curveball and good changeup. And he’s shown to be very effective in college. He isn’t a midget either, the guy is 6-2, 210. Maybe he can add 2 MPH, who knows?

 

If he retracts to 8.5 K/9 and 3 BB/9 that’s still a solid lefty rotation arm in the MLB.

 

General consensus in the scouting industry, Reid Detmers has one of the highest floors out of all the arms in this class. It’s easy to see him fitting as a #4 starter with some upside for more.

A 5th overall pick and #4 starter shouldn't be used in the same sentence, gross.

[glory]

[Spanky99]

 

[BlueRocky]

Live mock at prospectlive’s youtube channel @8:30PM ET

Looks like Mason is making the Jay’s pick.

 

link:

Edited May 2, 2020 by BlueRocky

[jays4life19]

Might as well watch this.

[BlueRocky]

1. Tigers - S. Torkelson

2. Orioles - A. Martin

3. Marlins - A. Lacy

4. Royals - Z. Veen

5. Blue Jays - E. Hancock

6. Mariners - N. Gonzales

7. Pirates - A. Hendrick

8. Padres - M. Meyer

9. Rockies - G. Mitchell

10. Angels - E. Howard

11. White Sox - J. Kelley

12. Reds - H. Kjerstad

13. Giants - C. Wilcox

14. Rangers - R. Detmers

15. Phillies - N. Bitsko

16. Cubs - G. Crochet

17. Red Sox - R. Hassell

18. Diamondbacks - M. Abel

19. Mets - C. Van Eyk

20. Brewers - P. Crow-Armstrong

21. Cardinals - P. Bailey

22. Nationals - M. Winn

23. Cleveland - T. Soderstrom

24. Rays - C. Cavalli

25. Braves - J.T. Ginn

25. Athletics - C. McMahon

26. Twins - J. Foscue

27. Yankees - T. Burns

28. Dodgers - D. Cabrera

 

Blue Jays 2nd rd pick - Dylan Crews

Blue Jays 3rd rd pick - Petey Halpin

 

Note: Torkelson or Martin would’ve had to fall to pry Hancock away from Mason tbh lol

Edited May 2, 2020 by BlueRocky

[jaysguy44]

I don't think I've ever gone back and forth in a draft when it comes to who I want us to select in the 1st round.

 

I'm extremely torn, I still lean slightly towards Veen.

[Boxcar]

That's fair. But the thought of a 5th overall pick settling in as #4 starter just feels like a disappointment. I know maybe that's worst case, but I feel like it's far more likely than him becoming a #2. Just what my gut is telling.

 

I dunno, man, I really enjoyed the Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins era.

[Spanky99]

I dunno, man, I really enjoyed the Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins era.

 

Boxy Boners*

[max silver]

I dunno, man, I really enjoyed the Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins era.

 

At least we got nice safe college arms instead of riskier picks like Chris Sale or Mike Trout, huge bullet dodged there.

[Spanky99]

Meatheads!

[BlueRocky]

Can I interest anybody in a Emerson Hancock game from 2019? This was Georgia's second last game of the season where he finished 8-3, 1.99 ERA, 97 K/18 BB, 0.8435 WHIP, .185 OBA in 90.1 IP.

 

It’s not easy to find replays of Georgia games. It wasn't even close to one of his best games and yet his stuff was pretty jaw-dropping. I thought you guys bored at home might have interest since there's a chance we'll be drafting this kid on June 10.

By the way, LJ Talley hit cleanup for Georgia last year, which was 2019 Blue Jays' 7th round pick.

 

Link:

 

Note: That 0 for 40 vs his changeup is ridiculous.. and that’s his 3rd pitch. 37% chase rate on SL and 33% on CU. Both throws for strikes paired with high-octane FB and curveball for 4-pitch mix.

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Pendleton]

Jared Jones for our 2nd rounder

[BlueRocky]

Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis briefly discusses their mock draft on MLB Pipeline

Video: https://www.mlb.com/video/mayo-callis-top-20-draft-picks

Mock: http:// https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2020-mlb-mock-draft

 

Further comment from Mayo:

https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-inbox-mock-draft-discussion

 

I’m guessing by your Twitter handle that you would like University of Georgia right-hander Emerson Hancock to get to the Blue Jays at No. 5. Could that happen? Sure, but it wouldn’t really be because of any real dip in his stuff. Yes, he wasn’t super sharp out of the gate, but his last start before the shutdown was a gem: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 K. Some surmise that the first part of the season was more like Spring Training to Hancock as he prepared for the SEC schedule.

 

Also, no one is going to knock a guy who was arguably the best college pitcher in all of baseball in 2019 (when he also started off relatively slowly) too much for a couple of so-so starts. I did have Hancock going No. 4 in that first mock, but he could still figure into any of the top three spots. But don’t lose hope. If Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin and Asa Lacy end up going in those first three spots, the Royals could easily take Nick Gonzales No. 4, leaving the Georgia ace for the Blue Jays to take at 5.

[BlueRocky]

That’s a mini-showcase a week before the draft

[Slade]

Draft Stock Watch

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-mlb-draft-stock-watch-revisiting-preseason-to-do-lists/

 

Blaze Jordan, 3B/1B, DeSoto Central HS, Southaven, Miss.

Areas To Improve: Third base defense, continue improving body

 

Previous Rank — 30

Current Rank — 92

 

Jordan did a nice job maintaining his body this spring, but most scouts seem to think he’ll wind up at first base or potentially left field in the future. More important than his specified areas of improvement though was his hitting this spring, which wasn’t as loud as evaluators need to see from a bat-first corner player.

 

Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota

Areas To Improve: Maintain stuff in starter’s role, develop third pitch

 

Previous Rank — 29

Current Rank — 10

 

Meyer flew up the draft board thanks to his performance over his first four starts of the season. Meyer ranked tied for fifth—along with Texas A&M LHP Asa Lacy—among Division I arms with 46 strikeouts, and while he still rarely used a changeup, his stuff more than held up in a starting role. His velocity held over his outings and his slider was its typical wipeout self. While teams would have liked to see that over a full season, they came away with little doubt this spring that his stuff could handle a starting role.

 

Victor Mederos, RHP, Westminster Christian Academy, Miami

Areas To Improve: Changeup, body maintenance

 

Previous Rank — 28

Current Rank — 46

 

Mederos worked hard over the offseason to improve his body and scouts thought he came out looking better physically, but his stuff and control was erratic. His velocity fluctuated more than it did over the summer and with the effort in his delivery and the issues he’s had repeating his delivery some scouts are more concerned about his reliever risk moving forward.

 

Carson Montgomery, RHP, Windermere (Fla.) HS

Areas To Improve: Third pitch, control

 

Previous Rank — 27

Current Rank — 36

 

Montgomery has fallen more thanks to college players passing him up than any fault of his own. Scouts have seen a solid changeup in his arsenal at times, but he doesn’t need to use it at the high school level enough for evaluators to have great feel for the offering. His control has been largely the same as last summer and fall, and scouts are likely split on whether he’s more likely to be a starter or reliever at the next level.

 

Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek HS, Port Orange, Fla.

Areas To Improve: Cut down swing-and-miss, add strength and power

 

Previous Rank — 26

Current Rank — 7

 

Veen added around 20 pounds of muscle over the offseason, so he more than checked off the second item on his list. That largely explains his prolific rise up draft boards. He could be the first high school player off the board, though there is still some swing-and-miss in his game that could scare his bigger critics.

 

Alex Santos, RHP, Mount St. Michael Academy, Bronx, N.Y.

Areas To Improve: Strike-throwing

 

Previous Rank — 25

Current Rank — 42

 

Strike-throwing is still one of the bigger questions with Santos. He made big strides in developing a changeup over the offseason in addition to adding more weight on his frame. Some scouts wonder if the weight he added was a bit too much, and he’s no longer in the top tier of prep that he was involved in during the preseason.

 

Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia

Areas To Improve: Strike-throwing, show ability to start

 

Previous Rank — 24

Current Rank — 24

 

Wilcox checked off both of his items by lowering his walk rate significantly and posting a 1.57 ERA in four starts. After walking close to six batters per nine as a freshman, Wilcox lowered his BB/9 to 0.78 this spring. While he didn’t get to continue showing that improvement against SEC competition, he showed marked improvement in the time he was given and also dominated Georgia Tech—7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 11 K—in his biggest challenge of the season.

 

Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif.

Areas To Improve: Show summer struggles were a fluke

 

Previous Rank — 23

Current Rank — 17

 

Scouts raved about Crow-Armstrong’s bat this spring and were excited with the impact he was showing, though power will likely never be a major part of his game. Scouts thought he looked much more like the player who gained notoriety as an underclassmen than the heavily-scrutinized version who struggled over the summer. How teams assess and weight those two versions will vary, but he was moving back up boards this spring.

 

Drew Romo, C, The Woodlands (Texas) HS

Areas To Improve: Righthanded swing, swing-and-miss

 

Previous Rank — 22

Current Rank — 38

 

Romo didn’t make any notable improvements with his offensive game this spring, with some scouts thinking he took a significant step backward in that area. His swing was too uphill at times and with questions about his offensive upside from most evaluators, it’s more difficult to see him in the first round even with his defensive prowess.

 

Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock (Calif.) HS

Areas To Improve: Hitting vs. lefthanders, defense

 

Previous Rank — 21

Current Rank — 18

 

It was difficult to get a read on Soderstrom’s improvement vs. same-side pitchers in particular, but some scouts thought he had taken steps forward as a defender. There are scouts who gave him a chance to get to an average defender. His arm strength is plus and could play at that grade in-game with a more efficient exchange and arm action, but he still has to improve as a receiver.

 

Austin Wells, C, Arizona

Areas To Improve: Receiving, hitting on the road

 

Previous Rank — 20

Current Rank — 21

 

Wells only got four road games this season. Arizona traveled to San Diego for games against Southern Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska and also traveled to Texas for one midweek game against the Longhorns. In that stretch Wells went 4-for-17 (.235) with six strikeouts and four walks. In total, Well hit .325/.527/.589 so it’ll be interesting to see if teams get critical of his performance away from Hi Corbett Field. His reputation as a defender is largely the same as it was during the preseason.

 

Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn

Areas To Improve: Handle full season workload

 

Previous Rank — 19

Current Rank — 26

 

This one was impossible for Burns to check off, so it’s impossible to knock him for taking his four starts this season and continuing to do what he’s always done in college. At this point, Burns is one of the most reliable and consistent starting pitchers in the college class. Over 36 starts and 188.2 innings with Auburn, Burns has a 2.86 ERA, 210 strikeouts to 67 walks and a .218 opposing batting average. His resume stands up with any college pitcher you want to compare him with.

 

Robert Hassell, OF, Independence HS, Thompson's Station, Tenn.

Areas To Improve: Power, defense

 

Previous Rank — 19

Current Rank — 16

 

After only playing a few games this spring there’s not much of a different opinion on Hassell at this point. Some scouts believe he’ll get to average power and stick in centerfield, while others are more skeptical, but those evaluations are simply how different scouts see Hassell as a player rather than anything he was able to show this spring.

 

Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State

Areas To Improve: Avoid swinging and missing like the summer, hit for power

 

Previous Rank — 17

Current Rank — 14

 

After hitting just .231/.333/.308 in a nine-game stint with Team USA last summer, Bailey went back to his typical ACC production this spring. Through 17 games he was looking at the best OPS (1.151) and isolated slugging (.389) marks of his career, but that came with a career-high strikeout rate of 24.7 percent as well. Bailey struck out 14 percent of the time as a freshman and just 10 percent of the time as a sophomore. There’s no doubting the power he has, but his tendency to swing-and-miss lead many scouts to put a below-average or fringe-average hit tool on the switch-hitter.

 

Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee

Areas To Improve: Handle starter’s workload, land slider for strikes

 

Previous Rank — 16

Current Rank — 13

 

Like every pitcher on this list, Crochet wasn’t able to show he could handle a starting role over a full season. His limitation in this area is more exacerbated however, as Crochet just appeared in one game for three innings. So the questions about his odds to start or relieve at the next level remain. With a strong season as a starter, it’s hard to imagine Crochet outside of the top 10. South Florida lefthander Shane McClanahan comes to mind with Crochet, as another southpaw with big pure stuff but reliever risk.

 

Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East HS, Doylestown, Pa.

Areas To Improve: Maintain body, improve changeup

 

Previous Rank — 15

Current Rank — 19

 

Bitsko never got going in his high school season, so he remains one of the biggest wild cards in the draft thanks to that and his previous status as a member of the 2021 class. Teams could have less information on Bitsko than any player mentioned in this post.

 

Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel (Ill.) HS

Areas To Improve: Offensive approach, tap into power

 

Previous Rank — 14

Current Rank — 20

 

Howard was seen in a few practices, but wasn’t able to get scouting in games this spring. That means teams have no new information on his offensive ability and will have to rely on summer and fall looks.

 

Casey Martin, SS, Arkansas

Areas To Improve: Offensive approach, cut down strikeouts

 

Previous Rank — 13

Current Rank — 27

 

Martin didn’t address either of his biggest items this spring. After striking out 22-23 percent of the time as a freshman and sophomore, that rate blossomed to 31 percent over his first 15 games this spring, and Martin finished with a .271/.386/.458 slash line—career lows in each category. He did improve his walk rate to a career-best 14 percent, but when looking at his overall performance this spring, it was hard for scouts to be anything but disappointed.

 

JT Ginn, RHP, Mississippi State

Areas To Improve: Changeup improvement

 

Previous Rank — 12

Current Rank — 23

 

Ginn underwent elbow surgery and had his 2020 season after just three innings. He was largely seen as a no-doubt, top-of-the-first-round talent when healthy and now is something of a wildcard thanks to his health and status as a draft-eligible sophomore who has already turned down money after being selected in the first round.

 

Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville

Areas To Improve: Changeup improvement

 

Previous Rank — 11

Current Rank — 8

 

With below-average fastball velocity, it was important for scouts to see a changeup that could be used as a weapon against righthanded batters. Scouts see at least an average changeup in his arsenal, while some go a step further and call the pitch above-average or better. Whatever the specific grade, it seems clear that Detmers’ changeup is good enough for the next level, helping to make him one of the safest prospects in the 2020 class.

 

Riley Greene Tomdipace

Tigers 2020 Draft Preview: Will Detroit Choose Austin Martin Or Spencer Torkelson?

Examining the Tigers' system ahead of the 2020 MLB Draft, which Detroit begins with the No. 1 pick.

 

Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina

Areas To Improve: Health, Perform in the SEC

 

Previous Rank — 10

Current Rank — 25

 

Mlodzinski was perfectly healthy this spring and took each of his starts through at least the fifth inning. Teams would have liked to see a full season after he missed time previously with a foot injury, but the coronavirus made that impossible. While he never got a chance to test his stuff against SEC competition, Mlodzinski looked like more of a ground ball artist than an overpowering pitcher who collected whiffs left and right. His 7.8 K/9 rate was respectable and he throws more than enough strikes, but teams wanted to see more finishing stuff than he showed—particularly in the 2020 draft class.

 

Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore.

Areas To Improve: Add strength, hold stuff over full season

 

Previous Rank — 9

Current Rank — 12

 

By all accounts Abel has gotten stronger and more physical over the offseason. However without playing any high school games this spring, it was impossible to see how his stuff would play over the course of five, six or seven innings. Abel did reach new peaks in fastball velocity, which is encouraging, but like Bitsko, evaluators simply weren’t able to see him pitch in game scenarios this spring.

 

Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA

Areas To Improve: Prove center field defense, tap into power

 

Previous Rank — 8

Current Rank — 6

 

Mitchell wasn’t able to fully prove either of his areas. While most scouts believe he’ll be a good center fielder in the future, that’s based more on his toolset than by actually watching him handle the position for any long amount of time. Mitchell has less track record in centerfield in college than most 80-grade runners would, but he showed nothing in his time at the position to worry evaluators. His game power is another question, as Mitchell didn’t homer once in 15 games, though his extra-base percentage was reasonably close to his career 2019 season. Mitchell will more than likely need mechanical adjustments at the next level if he’s able to tap into average or better game power.

 

Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny HS, Imperial, Pa.

Areas To Improve: Defense, running

 

Previous Rank — 7

Current Rank — 9

 

While Hendrick likely won’t ever have the speed to be a center fielder at the next level, scouts have praised his decision-making, route running and arm strength in the outfield. He has the tools and offensive upside to become a prototypical major league right fielder. A Pennsylvania product, Hendrick wasn’t able to play his high school season.

 

Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio (Texas) HS

Areas To Improve: More consistent breaking ball

 

Previous Rank — 6

Current Rank — 11

 

Kelley did get some time on the mound in front of scouts this spring as a Texas product, and he largely looked like the same power arm he was last summer. Teams were mixed on the improvement of his breaking ball. Some thought he showed progress with the pitch and that it was a solid-average to even plus future offering, while other evaluators are still skeptical it will be more than fringe-average. Regardless, Kelley should still be one of the first three prep arms off the board if signability isn’t a factor.

 

Nick Gonzales, SS, New Mexico State

Areas to Improve: Hit away from altitude, improve speed

 

Previous Rank — 5

Current Rank — 5

 

Gonzales played just four games away from the hitter-friendly confines of Presley Askew Field, and those games featured his biggest competition of the year—against Arizona State and Texas A&M. While it’s only four games, Gonzales went 2-for-13 (.154) with five walks and four strikeouts. As for his speed, Gonzales is cited as a solid-average or above-average runner, and while he moved to shortstop, most scouts still think second base is the best fit for him long term.

 

Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M

Areas To Improve: Improve control and command

 

Previous Rank — 4

Current Rank — 3

 

One of the biggest criticisms of Lacy entering the season was that he tended to let his pitch counts get away from him and wasn’t the most efficient in terms of getting quick outs. Part of that is simply a function of missing bats as frequently as Lacy does, but scouts still wanted to see him become more efficient and improve his command. While his pitch counts were still in the 90-100 range this spring, Lacy did post the lowest walk rate of his career—3.0 BB/9—over his first four starts.

 

Austin Martin, OF, Vanderbilt

Areas To Improve: Handle shortstop, hit for more power

 

Previous Rank — 3

Current Rank — 1

 

Martin started the season at third base and shortly moved positions for Vanderbilt, but it wasn’t to shortstop where many evaluators wanted to see him, but center field. Because of that, scouts have become increasingly skeptical of Martin’s ability to ever handle shortstop at the big league level, and don’t have a great feel for his best defensive home long term. After tapping into double-digit power as a sophomore, Martin was well on his way to more of the same in 2020, with three home runs and six doubles through his first 15 games while keeping his strikeout-to-walk rate well in line—10 walks to just two strikeouts.

 

Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia

Areas To Improve: Breaking ball development

 

Previous Rank — 2

Current Rank — 4

 

Hancock has an easy plus fastball and changeup, but the industry entered the year wondering whether or not his slider fit that categorization as well. The slider flashes plus at its best, but after four starts this spring, the consensus on the offering is more above-average than a true wipeout breaking ball. At times the slider lacks two-plane biting action and is more east to west, and scouts have pointed to a lower arm slot that might limit the effectiveness of the pitch at the moment.

 

Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State

Areas To Improve: Defensive profile

 

Previous Rank — 1

Current Rank — 2

 

Adding to Torkelson’s defensive profile is just a cherry on top of his profile, as every scout knows you’re taking an impact bat with the Arizona State slugger. He has the athleticism, hands and makeup to become an above-average defender at first base but some scouts believe he runs well enough to handle a corner outfield spot if necessary. While that’s not a consensus belief in the industry, evaluators are generally positive of the way he moves around the bag at the very least.

[Spanky99]

Fun read on who will go first overall debate, Torkelson or Martin... insider takes.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-spencer-torkelson-or-austin-martin

 

Who's the better prospect?

 

Torkelson has batted .337/.463/.729 with 87 extra-base hits, 110 walks and 104 strikeouts in two-plus college seasons, while Martin has hit .368/.474/.532 with 57 extra-base knocks, 85 free passes and 82 whiffs, not to mention 43 steals. They're different types of players, with most of Torkelson's value coming from his bat and Martin providing a broader array of tools but none as striking as Torkelson's power.

 

Though Torkelson likely will remain at first base, many scouts believe he could handle left field. Martin is clearly the superior athlete but his defensive home remains in question. Teams hoped to see him at shortstop this spring, but he opened the season at third base before moving to center field, and most evaluators think he'll wind up in center or at second base.

 

The Tigers still have six weeks to make up their minds, but most clubs believe they're zeroing in on Torkelson. Most of our respondents believe that's what exactly they should do, with 29 preferring him to Martin, five liking Martin over Torkelson and one saying it was too close to call.

 

2020 Draft: Torkelson, 1B

Apr 20, 2020 · 0:43

2020 Draft: Torkelson, 1B

Torkelson's proponents say his bat is just too special to pass up. A sampling of their opinions:

 

National League scouting director: "Torkelson is as Major League-ready as any player I've ever seen in my entire life with his bat. If you want to take him and put him in the Major Leagues right away like Bob Horner, you could. Everything he does in the batter's box is elite: his ability to take pitches, to walk, to hit for power, to hit for average. It's like watching a Major League player in college. He's as good a hitter as I've ever seen. Torkelson is like watching a No. 4 hitter on a Major League team in college." [Editor's note: Horner went No. 1 overall in 1978 and immediately won the NL Rookie of the Year award after homering 23 times in 89 games with the Braves.]

 

American League executive: "It's a tough call, basically comes down to Frank Thomas or Mookie Betts. Torkelson is the Tyrannosaurus rex version of college power hitters in the last decade, while Martin is a WAR monster with multidimensional abilities. I normally prefer the all-around player, although for this exercise, I’m leaning toward the Big Tork!"

 

NL scouting director: "I don't think it's close. It's Torkelson. Torkelson is one of the more prolific power hitters and hitters I've seen in a long time. I get he's a first baseman, but he's athletic for the position and his general athleticism speaks for what he can do. There's nothing wrong with his swing, his analytics are great, he checks every single box. When you combine that bat with that power, you get an elite offensive performer. He's a bigger, stronger, more athletic version of [last year's No. 3 overall pick] Andrew Vaughn."

 

AL crosschecker: "Spencer Torkelson is the better prospect for me. It's a unique conversation because both of these guys are completely different players but I feel Torkelson has the most overall future value with his middle-of-the-order potential and, from a scouting side, a chance at 70 hit/70 power or even better [on the 20-80 scale]. Torkelson's athleticism gets discredited some for the situation he's in at Arizona State with an infield of four players who may get drafted high next month. If he was playing at a different school, he'd likely get more of an opportunity to show his versatility. He gets compared a lot to Andrew Vaughn, but for me there is much more defensive versatility with Torkelson's flexibility for his size and arm strength."

 

AL scouting director: "While I understand Martin offers up more positional value, I'd have a hard time passing on Torkelson's bat. First and foremost, he has a natural feel to hit, and then there just happens to be plus-plus raw power attached. It's an advanced approach. We have seen him take two-strike sliders off the dish and deposit them into the right-field seats. Martin would likely go 1-1 in quite a few of our recent Drafts, but he's up against a monster this year."

 

NL scouting director: "Torkelson would be 1, Martin would be 2. They're both very good players but Torkelson, man, it's big power with good hitting ability. He doesn't swing and miss much, he walks, he's the total package. It's a different bat. I don't see a bat close to his in the last few Drafts. Kris Bryant is probably the closest, but Torkelson has similar power with a shorter swing and less swing and miss. Martin doesn't have that same power or exit velocity. He's a good player, a center fielder who can run and do it all. I just think Torkelson is going to be an aircraft carrier, 'get on my back,' hitting .300-plus with 30 homers and an insane OPS."

 

AL scouting director: "I’m a big Torkelson fan. I think he is a sure-thing Major League 2-4 hole hitter who will hit for OPS and power. His swing generates so much easy strength with a ridiculous amount of hard contact, and his excellent plate discipline is going to allow him to walk and hit home runs. His power is the type that allows him to produce home runs even when he doesn’t square it up. He has confidence and owns the batter's box -- the mentality of the great Major League hitters."

 

The case for Martin

 

While they were in the clear minority, Martin's backers pointed to his pure hitting ability, more all-around game and defensive versatility. Several of the executives who opted for Torkelson still lavished praise on Martin, with an AL scouting director saying that Martin would have the higher ceiling if he proves he can handle center field and an AL crosschecker opining that Martin has a chance to be an 80 hitter.

 

2020 Draft: Austin Martin, OF/3B

Apr 20, 2020 · 0:55

2020 Draft: Austin Martin, OF/3B

Here's what Martin's advocates had to say:

 

AL executive: "Martin, by a smidge, due to the positional versatility and superior contact ability. They’re both exceptional talents -- two of the better position players in the Draft in years. It’s a shame we won’t get to see the performance lines they would’ve put up this year. Torkelson will likely be the better hitter but Martin will have more overall value. In fact, Martin is among the most well-rounded college position players of the last decade."

 

NL crosschecker: "Martin is the better prospect. The only tool Torkelson has better is raw power and probably power production. Martin does have good usable power though. The hit tools are close to even but I would give Martin the edge. Athletically, they're not in the same hemisphere. Martin throws, runs and fields better than Torkelson. Martin is more versatile positionally. I saw him in center field this spring and he has a chance there."

 

Who else should be in the mix?

 

When we asked if there were any other prospects who belonged in the No. 1 overall pick discussion along with Torkelson and Martin, 26 of the 35 executives said they wouldn't consider anyone else. But one name kept coming up for those who would: Texas A&M left-hander Asa Lacy.

 

No. 3 on MLB Pipeline's Draft Top 150, Lacy features three pitches that grade as at least plus in his fastball, slider and changeup, and his curveball isn't far behind. He ranked third in NCAA Division I in opponent average (.162) and strikeout rate (13.2 per nine innings) as a sophomore in 2019 and improved those numbers to .111 and 17.3 in four starts this spring.

 

Five respondents said Lacy would be part of their mix if they had the top choice. Two more said they wouldn't take him over Torkelson but preferred him to Martin. Another said Lacy and Georgia right-hander Emerson Hancock could factor into No. 1 talk for a club that believes you win with pitching.

 

"I could take Asa Lacy," a NL executive said. "He’s the full package, left-handed, pluses across the board and performance in the SEC. He ranks up there with any left-hander in recent years. I would still take the bat but Lacy would be in the discussion."

 

An AL scouting director noted that he'd consider one of the high school players with the first selection, though he didn't want to tip his hand by saying which one. Spruce Creek High (Port Orange, Fla.) outfielder Zac Veen is MLB Pipeline's highest-rated prepster at No. 7 on the Top 150.

 

But one NL scouting director summed up the thinking of most of the executives who weighed in: "If I'm Detroit, I'm not worrying about the No. 1 pick. I'm thinking about my next pick because I'm taking Torkelson."

[Slade]

That's a perfect article to go with a question someone from Toronto asked Kyle Glaser.

 

 

Do you see Veen breaking into the Top 5 or do you think the top 5 have separated themselves from the rest of the class?

 

Kyle Glaser: The upper-level, national evaluators I've spoke to have the top five of Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, Asa Lacy, Nick Gonzales and Emerson Hancock as the clear top five in the class with a clear separation between them and the next group, which includes Veen. That said, all it takes is one team to feel differently for Veen or someone else to sneak into the top five.

[jaysguy44]

My gut is telling me Hancock is going to be a Bluejay, I'd put money on it.

[Todd]

Good evening. By the end of the week i will have a blue jays mock draft of fifteen rounds.

Even though i have heard it might only be ten rounds. My question is how will this

affect the 2020-2021 international free agent spending money?