MLB 2020 Draft

[BlueRocky]

[BlueRocky]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-mlb-draft-prospects-chat-492020/

More Carlos Collazo Q&A on Baseball America, he answered a couple of my questions:

 

Linc (Canada):

Hi Carlos, thanks for providing so much draft content! Could you enlighten us, how do you guys separate prospects like Zac Veen, Austin Hendrick, and Robert Hassell? They’re all very intriguing OF prep bats with just as much risk, but a lot of upside with the stick. Is projectability & size the main factor?

 

Carlos Collazo: Yeah, tough to separate all those guys a ton. They are all roughly in the same range. Depends on the flavor you prefer. Hassell has the best pure hit tool IMO. Hendrick has the biggest raw power and the best bat speed. Veen has the frame you want to dream on and perhaps my favorite amateur swing—ever. Veen is the most patient hitter of the group, Hassell has the fewest holes in his swing and Hendrick has the best chance to do damage in-game right now. Hassell I think has a better shot to stick in CF than the other two, but all are likely corner guys, with Hendrick boasting the biggest arm. Hope that helps you think about how they compare and contrast.

 

And last week he answered this one:

 

Linc (Canada):

Hi Carlos, great work with all the draft content! On one of your recent pod cast with JJ Cooper, you mentioned Max Meyer has one of the nastiest breaking balls (slider) in the class. Are there any other pitchers in this class carrying a potential double-plus pitch?

 

Carlos Collazo: Love this question. And thanks for listening to the podcast! Hoping to hop on and do another one soon. Garret Crochet's fastball is probably just that. Jared Kelley's fastball might be that as well. Chris McMahon's changeup. JT Ginn might have two when he's healthy with his FB and SL.

[BlueRocky]

Here’s a couple more interesting ones from this week.

 

Keith (California):

Outside of the top 3 arms (Lacy, Hancock, Detmers), which 3 have the highest ceiling and which 3 have the highest floor?

 

Carlos Collazo: Fun one to get things started with. After those three our next arms are: Max Meyer, Jared Kelley, Mick Abel, Garrett Crochet, Tanner Burns, Nick Bitsko, Carmen Mlodzinski, and Bobby Miller. Ceiling: 1. Crochet 2. Meyer 3. Abel. Floor: 1. Burns 2. Mlodzinski 3. Meyer. Thought about putting Kelley in as the No. 3 floor guy but that just seems too crazy for the demographic.

 

Jeff (NY):

Thoughts on Casey Martin as a draft prospect? Where do you see him going in this years draft?

 

Carlos Collazo: He’s a difficult one. The tools are electric and no one doubts that. I had conversations this week with scouts who think his pure toolset belongs in the top 10, but the big question marks about his offensive approach and defensive polish likely mean he’ll go more towards the middle or back of the first round and it wouldn’t shock me if he slid into the second either. I think some teams are really excited about him and some are really scared of him.

 

Brandon (California):

How confident are you that Crochet can remain a starter? Do you think he will fall in the draft because he has yet to show he has the durability to be a starter?

 

Carlos Collazo: Less confident than I am about Reid Detmers being a starter and more confident than a lot of the pitchers in the back of the first and second/third/fourth round range. I don’t know how far he’ll fall from where we have him currently ranked (13). He seems like a safe bet to go in the 10-20 range based on his pure stuff, but I do think he would have had a good chance to move into the top 10 with a strong season in a starting role. His strike throwing has been fine and there aren’t any glaring concerns about why he couldn’t start, outside of less track record in the role than you’d like to see.

 

Michael Smith (Lake Louise):

Do you think Max Meyer could go in the top 5 ?

 

Carlos Collazo: Sure. But it seems unlikely that he would jump each of the top three bats on our board as well as all three college arms in front of him. It only takes one team to do it though. I wouldn’t bet on it.

 

James (Texas):

What separates Spencer Torkelson from Aaron Sabato?

 

Carlos Collazo: Torkelson's hit tool is a full grade better or more than Sabato's. That's the biggest difference, but Torkelson also has a lengthier track record of hitting for impact power in-game, better zone control, fewer swing-and-miss concerns and he's also more athletic and a better defender at first base. Both have loud raw power, but Torkelson is one of the better prospects in recent years in terms of his actual in-game power production.

 

 

Brandon (California):

How many guys from this draft project to be in the BA Top 100 prospects?

 

Carlos Collazo: I have a bit better feel for this question this year than in previous years, after sitting through many of our Top 100 meetings. I believe right now we have 10 players from the 2019 class on the Top 100, while seven or eight made that list initially. This year’s class is deeper, but graduations could be tricky considering the shortened (or nonexistent) season. That will complicate things, but definitely Austin Martin, Spencer Torkelson, Asa Lacy, Emerson Hancock and Nick Gonzales would be on the list. That’s five. I would fight for Garrett Mitchell, Reid Detmers, Zac Even and Austin Hendrick to be on the list as well. That’s nine. After that it gets dicier, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see 1-4 more players with a good chance depending on how things work out this summer. 14 seems pretty high though, even for a deep class and especially considering the 2020 circumstances. I’ll guess nine, but anywhere in the 7-12 range seems like a good guess.

 

Keith (California):

How much do you think the prep arms will fall in this years draft? Would you be confident taking a guy like Kelley or Abel in top 15?

 

Carlos Collazo: This one’s interesting. There are three players who are no-doubt first round talents: Jared Kelly, Mick Abel and Nick Bistko. A few others who are more fringe first round talents in Carson Montgomery, Alex Santos, Jared Jones, Masyn Winn and Victor Mederos. I personally probably would opt for a bat or a college arm if I were picking in this class. I like most of these prep arms but the risk in that demographic would likely scare me off considering the range and the other options available to me. Depending on where a team is picking, I think a viable strategy in this year’s class would be to take a bat or two at the top and then get some good value arms later. There are just so many to pick from. The prep arms always slide in some capacity, or at least they have in recent years. Your guess is as good as mine this year.

 

 

James (Texas):

Which college pitching prospects projected to go in the first round/comp first round present the greatest relief risk?

 

Carlos Collazo: Bobby Miller is the first guy who jumps out to me in that range and probably fits that description most accurately. Cole Wilcox still has some reliever risk as well.

 

Brandon (California):

What type of offensive potential does Ed Howard have? Does most of his value come from his defense? What kind of hit/power grades would you give him?

 

Carlos Collazo: The value comes on projecting on his athleticism, frame and offensive, along with the high level of defense he plays at shortstop. It’s not just one or the other but the total package. The defensive side is certainly more of a known commodity for Howard right now. Most scouts feel pretty safe about that side of his game. There’s significantly more risk on the bat, but he has all the physical tools to be an average hitter. I think what you are really hoping is that he take the necessary steps forward in his offensive approach and pitch recognition to tap into those physical skills.

 

Ryan (LA):

Is Brandon Marsh a good comp for Garrett Mitchell? Do you think Mitchell will ever get his power in games?

 

Carlos Collazo: I think Mitchell’s raw tools are quite a bit louder than Marsh. I wouldn’t necessarily compare the two. I do think Mitchell will start tapping into his power more in games. I’ve spoken about this before but I think he has the raw power, the bat-to-ball ability and the athleticism necessary to make the adjustments he’ll need to make.

 

Justin (Missouri):

Any chance the royals pass on Nick Gonzalez? I’m just not a big fan of him, for some reason he reminds me of Christian Colon and we all seen how that turned out for the royals when they selected him with the 4th pick in the draft. If they do pass on him who do you think they will select? I’m kinda hoping they select ed Howard or zac veen and pay them under slot value, so they could maybe get Jordan walker and blaze Jordan in the comp round and 2nd.. I’m also a joe Boyle fan!

 

Carlos Collazo: Sure, there’s a chance. Like I’ve said there’s not a ton of clarity on what teams are doing at this point. Based on your picks, you seem to have an extremely high risk tolerance. I’d love to see a 10-round draft with you in charge. That seems rich for Howard, would be a fine spot for Veen IMO.

 

Andrew (Alberta):

Would it be a reach for the Jays to pick Mitchell at 5? I know everyone predicts them to choose whomever is left of the 'Big Five'. I just really like his tools and the Jays desperately need impact OF's at all levels.

 

Carlos Collazo: Nope. I don’t think so. The talent fits. If they think he’s going to hit and are confident with his medical situation I think it would be a fine pick. I’m with you, I really like his toolset. I would not want to draft for organization need with that pick, however. If he’s the best player on your board, sure. Win-win. Don’t pass up a player who you have graded out as a better talent just because you need outfielders.

 

Joe (Seattle):

Carlos, Of all the guys in this year's class, who do you think has the highest ceiling? In other words, is there a guy that sticks out as having the best shot at a Cy Young or multiple MVPs down the road?

 

Carlos Collazo: I tend to go with Garrett Mitchell for this pick. Just look at the raw tools. If he hits he's a regular all-star. On the mound I suppose it's Lacy.

 

James (Los Angeles):

How concerned are you about Austin Hendrick's hit tool?

 

Carlos Collazo: I was more concerned at the beginning of last summer than the end of it. He is aggressive at times and he showed some swing and miss, but he also showed the ability to make some adjustments—both mechanically and approach wise. I think Hendrick has the mentality that you need to fail and then respond positively to that failure in order to get better. Because of that and because of his bat speed (up there with Austin Beck for the quickest hands I've ever seen in person) I think he will be able to figure it out. I wrote about some of his mechanical adjustments here if you are curious: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-austin-hendrick-re-tooled-his-swing-around-utterly-elite-bat-speed/

 

Ryan (Fort Worth):

Robert Hassell sounds like a corner outfielder without much pop or speed? What am I missing in his evaluation? Is his hit tool that strong?

 

Carlos Collazo: He could have average power production, a plus hit tool and be a good defender in a corner or average in center field. That's a good player. Yes the hit tool is that strong and I think you're also underrating his running ability and power.

 

KB (NY):

Any chance Nick Gonzales is the number one draft pick?

 

Carlos Collazo: I would be surprised.

 

 

Cheers

[Jimcanuck]

Rest of the chat below. The answer to the Zac Veen swing question reminded me of Olerud. Smoothest swing I ever saw.

 

 

Lou (Atlanta):

 

Do you think Austin Wells can stick at catcher for the long term?

 

Carlos Collazo: I would lean towards no, based on the industry feedback. But how teams value catcher defense is going to change fairly significantly soon, too.

 

 

Joe (Ithaca, NY):

 

Could you elaborate on what makes Zac Veen's swing the best amateur swing you've ever seen? That is incredibly high praise.

 

Carlos Collazo: Mechanically, the best swing I've ever seen, yeah. Also, know that this is my fourth year really doing this for BA, so my pool of hitters is much smaller than a lot of the scouts in the game who have been doing this for decades. I just love how fluid and loose the swing is. He's explosive without being violent, he has a sizeable load in his lower half but it doesn't disrupt his timing on getting the foot down and his hands are remarkable quiet throughout the entire process. He seems balanced before, during and after the swing in his follow through and it looks like he has plenty of natural leverage and loft as well without creating a ton of holes in the zone. We have some video of his swing on the site (go to the BA 300 and click the video), and from the open side it's just nice to watch.

 

 

Frank (Des Moines):

 

Based on several scouting reports it sounds as if Ed Howard has limited offensive potential. Is this an accurate conclusion or am I missing something?

 

Carlos Collazo: I don't think limited is the right word. If you said there's a lot you have to project on to get to solid offensive potential I think that would be more fair. The offensive tools are in the tank. He just needs more reps and continued improvement. Bat speed and the swing itself are fine.

 

 

RT (NC):

 

CJ Abrams, arguably, had the best debut in 2019 for first year players. Who do you see having that type of debut in this class?

 

Carlos Collazo: Abrams has fantastic pure bat-to-ball skills and is a 70 or 80 grade runner from the left side. There's no one in that range on the high school side this year.

 

Carlos Collazo: By that, I mean no high school player ranked close to where Abrams was a year ago with that skillset.

 

 

Steve (Houston):

 

What is the usual proportion of high school to college kids drafted each year? And would you expect that number to change in one direction or another this year?

 

Carlos Collazo: This is a good question. We wrote a piece last summer discussing how teams have increasingly drafted college players. When we did the research then, high school players accounted for roughly 18-30 percent of the players drafted and signed going back to 1981. In 2019, 137 of the 960 players drafted and signed came from the high school ranks. That's a tick over 14 percent. If you just look at the top 10 rounds, 56 of 291 drafted and signed players were high schoolers (19 percent). I would be surprised if we didn't see lower percentages in the high school demographic this year, considering the number of players who simply didn't play. Though how teams handle money-savers in the draft this year could affect those numbers.

 

 

Devin (Columbus):

 

Might the shorter draft actually help most college seniors? Since most will now go undrafted, many might be able to get the $20k max instead of being drafted and signing for $5k.

 

Carlos Collazo: Do not bet on owners simply going up to that $20K limit because they can. It's a cap, not a floor. Plenty of guys are going to sign for $5K.

 

 

Adam (Crown Point, IN):

 

Love the work you guys do, but being a huge college baseball guy and want that sport to keep thriving, I feel like Zac Veen is a generational talent, percentage he actually lands at Florida?! Hey,there's always a chance!

 

Carlos Collazo: Veen doesn't need to get to Gainesville for college baseball to thrive next year. It's going to have more talent than it knows what to do with.

 

 

Keith (California):

 

Similar question as before... Outside of the top 4 hitters (Martin, Torkelson, Gonzales, Veen) which 3 hitters have the highest ceiling and which 3 hitters have the highest floor? Thanks!

 

Carlos Collazo: Wow. I'm disappointed you excluded Garrett Mitchell from this group. He is our fourth bat, and I'll just group him in this selection of players because he would be the highest ceiling if we didn't. Ceiling: 1) Austin Hendrick 2) Casey Martin 3) Pete Crow Armstrong. Floor 1) Patrick Bailey 2) Heston Kjerstad 3) Austin Wells/Daniel Cabrera.

 

Carlos Collazo: We have successfully ended with a question similar to what we started with. That's good circular writing strategy, folks. Thanks for joining and thanks as always for your continued passion about the draft and amateur players in general. I'm glad we could talk some actual baseball and I look forward to seeing this transcript in a few years and looking foolish! Until next time. Stay safe.

[BlueRocky]

Thanks I missed that last part, didn’t stay for the whole chat session.

 

Joe (Ithaca, NY):

Could you elaborate on what makes Zac Veen's swing the best amateur swing you've ever seen? That is incredibly high praise.

 

Carlos Collazo: Mechanically, the best swing I've ever seen, yeah. Also, know that this is my fourth year really doing this for BA, so my pool of hitters is much smaller than a lot of the scouts in the game who have been doing this for decades. I just love how fluid and loose the swing is. He's explosive without being violent, he has a sizeable load in his lower half but it doesn't disrupt his timing on getting the foot down and his hands are remarkable quiet throughout the entire process. He seems balanced before, during and after the swing in his follow through and it looks like he has plenty of natural leverage and loft as well without creating a ton of holes in the zone. We have some video of his swing on the site (go to the BA 300 and click the video), and from the open side it's just nice to watch.

Here’s the video Carlos was referring to:

 

I did post a tweet with his swing about a week ago, though it’s not quite as long as BA’s clip from different angles. Zac Veen definitely has a pretty swing. Put that left handed swing on a 6’5” high schooler and there’s really something to dream on.

 

By the way, Jordan Groshans also has a pretty sweet swing himself. Groshans, Orelvis Martinez, Miguel Hiraldo and Zac Veen tearing up the minors would be pretty sick to watch.

 

Edit: Found a couple more twitter clips of Zac Veen’s swing if anyone is interested.

Edited April 10, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Vdubfan]

I’ve been talking myself into Veen for the past month. There’s a lot to like there.

[Iggy]

I’ve been talking myself into Veen for the past month. There’s a lot to like there.

 

Agreed

 

If Martin, Torkelson, Hancock and Lacy are taken as top 4 I would seriously consider Veen over Gonzales

[BlueRocky]

Agreed

 

If Martin, Torkelson, Hancock and Lacy are taken as top 4 I would seriously consider Veen over Gonzales

 

There’s little chance that Austin Martin or Spencer Torkelson gets passed four times and land on the Blue Jays, though I would love that scenario.

 

It’s more likely one of Emerson Hancock or Asa Lacy gets down to no. 5. At this point, Lacy might’ve slightly edged out Hancock in the rankings due to a strong 2020 start, this bodes very well for the Blue Jays potentially having a chance at Hancock.. which was the no. 1 ranked draft prospect entering the season and the most dominant college starting pitcher in 2019.

 

But don’t overlook Nick Gonzales’ bat. He wasn’t just good, he was the best hitter in college baseball. Albeit some question marks due to facing weaker competition. He did lead college in home runs, set on-base records, won Cape Cod MVP, and was well on his way to being a 2020 golden spikes finalist if the season didn’t end abruptly, he was leading that discussion back in early March.

 

My point is, whoever falls to the Blue Jays they will have a lot of great options and if it’s between Nicky G or Zac you really can’t go wrong.

 

I’m working on an article right now covering all the draft scenarios for the Blue Jays 5th overall pick (Zac Veen included), part one should be up on http://radioscouts.com sometime next week.

[Beans]

Wisconsin has joined the Ivy League in not allowing senior spring athletes to return to school next year for their final year of eligibility. More schools will likely follow. Sad.

 

https://www.si.com/college/2020/04/09/wisconsin-not-allow-spring-student-athletes-return

[Brownie19]

BlueRocky - FFS, the Zac Veen videos...

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think I like him over both the pitchers.

[jaysguy44]

I've been on the Veen train for a bit now, personally for me this is my top 10 when it comes to the Jays.

 

1. Martin

2. Torkelson

3. Lacy

4. Veen

5. Gonzales

6. Hancock

7. Mitchell

8. Hendricks

9. Detmers

10. Meyer

[BlueRocky]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-mock-draft-2020-vanderbilts-austin-martin-goes-no-1-to-tigers-royals-take-first-pitcher-off-board/amp/

Interesting mock draft here from CBS published today. They tried to put some reasoning behind their picks.

 

It’s difficult to speculate how things will turn out and it’s still unconfirmed if we’re getting more than five rounds. These are never correct either, but they’re fun to look at.

 

1. Tigers: Austin Martin

2. Orioles: Nick Gonzales

3. Marlins: Spencer Torkelson

4. Royals: Emerson Hancock

5. Blue Jays: Asa Lacy

 

6. Mariners: Garrett Mitchell

7. Pirates: Mick Abel

8. Padres: Austin Hendrick

9. Rockies: Reid Detmers

10. Angels: Jared Kelley

 

11. White Sox: Max Meyer

12. Reds: Garrett Crochet

13. Giants: Robert Hassell

14. Rangers: Zac Veen

15. Phillies: Heston Kjerstad

Edited April 14, 2020 by BlueRocky

[The Cats Ass]

I'd be contacting Veen to see if he would be willing to take underslot money if he was drafted 5th.

[Vdubfan]

I'd be contacting Veen to see if he would be willing to take underslot money if he was drafted 5th.

 

Veen underslot followed by Ginn overslot would be a pretty fantastic first two rounds for the Jays. Though I'd imagine someone else would try to land Ginn overslot before 42.

[BlueRocky]

Veen underslot followed by Ginn overslot would be a pretty fantastic first two rounds for the Jays. Though I'd imagine someone else would try to land Ginn overslot before 42.

 

There’s a few of first round talents that might be available to nab in later rounds with over slot money, the pitching is seriously deep this draft. JT Ginn would probably be the guy with highest ceiling, potentially two double-plus pitches. But he’s a draft-eligible sophomore with some injury risk, will likely need a significant offer (mid-first round money).

[BlueRocky]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

New mock draft (v 3.0) up on Baseball America.

 

By Carlos Collazo

 

It’s an odd time to be doing a mock, and honestly, there’s not a ton of information linking players to specific teams outside of the first few picks. That makes sense, considering we don’t yet know how many rounds the draft will be, or even when the draft is going to take place.

 

So it goes without saying that this mock draft steers heavily into the range of speculation and educated guesses more than any hard and fast information tying players to teams outside of the first four or five picks.

 

However, we have spent the last few weeks and months talking to area scouts, crosscheckers and scouting directors about the realistic ranges that players are going to be taken during the 2020 draft. I would urge readers to think of this mock draft as a more holistic overview of where the 2020 talent is stacking up at this point, rather than checking your favorite team’s selection and walking away with confidence that the player will be drafted in that spot.

 

While that’s generally true of mock drafts this far out from the draft, I want to be especially transparent about the information and the process considering the environment that teams, players and agents are navigating. Many clubs haven’t had any real discussion of the players they are targeting with their first picks at this point, and depending on the final logistics of the draft, much could still change despite no baseball taking place.

 

We’re also anticipating more difficulty with mock drafts this year even as we approach the draft itself. With less information available via ‘scouting the scouts’ at games, things should be more challenging. Still, we’re hoping to provide as much actual value as we can at this point and we’ll continue to gather information every day until the draft takes place.

 

There are some real pieces of information that can be gathered from this mock, such as what general range the industry is currently expecting a player to be selected in.

 

With that lengthy caveat out of the way, let’s get into the mock. Executive editor JJ Cooper and I alternated picks for this edition, and added commentary for each pick as we went. JJ had the first selection:

 

1

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Spencer Torkelson

Arizona State

1B

VIDEO

Notes:

JJ: Yes, it’s unconventional to take a first baseman first overall, but the track record for college first basemen is actually quite good at the top of the draft, and Torkelson is a special bat.

 

Carlos: At this point it sounds like one of Torkelson or Austin Martin are the favorites to be the first pick, so this selection makes all the sense in the world. There’s a much smaller gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 in this year’s class than in the 2018 or 2019 drafts.

 

 

Click here to see Spencer Torkelson's full scouting report

 

LESS

2

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Austin Martin

Vanderbilt

OF

Notes:

Carlos: I think this pick would come down to Martin or Texas A&M LHP Asa Lacy at the moment, and I believe Baltimore might prefer a high-end bat over a high-end arm in this spot, given the information we have right now.

 

JJ: An Austin Martin/Adley Rutschman combo in the middle of the O’s lineup in a few years sounds mighty appealing if you are an Orioles fan.

 

 

Click here to see Austin Martin's full scouting report

 

LESS

3

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Asa Lacy

Texas A&M

LHP

VIDEO

Notes:

JJ: This is the easiest call in the draft to me. The Marlins are sitting pretty with the third pick in a draft with a clear top three. No need to play games, just take whichever of the top three falls to their pick. Lacy is the best pitcher in the draft as a polished lefty with track record and advanced control.

 

Carlos: Well said, JJ.

 

 

Click here to see Asa Lacy's full scouting report

 

LESS

4

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Nick Gonzales

New Mexico State

2B

VIDEO

Notes:

Carlos: Gonzales and Georgia righty Emerson Hancock are the two favorites for this spot, and I’ve heard Gonzales’ name mentioned a few times with the Royals, though it’s all preliminary and mostly guesswork. It does make some sense for the Royals to go with the bat considering the amount of impressive college pitching depth they have in the system. Prep bat Zac Veen wouldn't surprise me at any pick from here throughout the rest of the top 10.

 

JJ: When the Royals went high school heavy in 2007-2008, they then went college heavy in 2010-2013 to try to have a wave of prospects all arrive together. It didn’t work out when the Royals took Christian Colon fourth overall in 2010, but putting Gonzales at second base alongside Bobby Witt Jr. at shortstop would give them one of the best middle-infield prospect pairings in baseball.

 

 

Click here to see Nick Gonzales' full scouting report

 

LESS

5

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Emerson Hancock

Georgia

RHP

VIDEO

Notes:

JJ: Hancock didn’t dominate as much in the early going of 2020 as he did in 2019, when some scouts saw him as a viable 1-1 pick, but he’s excellent value at pick No. 5.

 

Carlos: In some ways I’m thinking of this pick in the same way that JJ thought through the Marlins at pick No. 3. Take your pick of whoever of the Gonzales/Hancock duo gets to you.

 

 

Click here to see Emerson Hancock's full scouting report

 

LESS

6

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Garrett Mitchell

UCLA

OF

Notes:

Carlos: This is where it gets really tricky. Mitchell, Veen and Louisville lefty Reid Detmers all wouldn’t surprise me with this pick, and I think higher upside college arms like Minnesota’s Max Meyer and Tennessee’s Garrett Crochet could make sense here as well. The draft could really open up at this spot.

 

JJ: Mitchell is a college prospect who feels like a high-ceiling high school prospect. If it all clicks, he could be the best player in the draft—he’s that good. But there are questions about his offensive impact, so there’s more risk here than there is in the top tier of college hitters.

 

 

Click here to see Garrett Mitchell's full scouting report

 

LESS

7

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Max Meyer

Minnesota

RHP

VIDEO

Notes:

JJ: Maybe it will change with a new boss in Pittsburgh, but the Pirates love righthanders and rarely draft lefties, so I do think they will lean toward the upside of Meyer over the more polished stuff of Detmers. Since 2010, the Pirates have drafted 23 righthanders in the top five rounds. Over that span, they have drafted four lefties in the top five rounds.

 

Carlos: While I would be a bit surprised to see Meyer drafted in front of Detmers, it’s not shocking. Meyer’s upside is considerable.

 

 

Click here to see Max Meyer's full scouting report

 

LESS

8

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Zac Veen

Spruce Creek HS, Port Orange, Fla.

OF

VIDEO

Notes:

Carlos: Veen to the Padres works out beautifully in my mind. I think there’s a very real chance he goes before this pick, but San Diego is obsessed with high-upside prep talent and Veen fits that more than anyone else in the 2020 class. If there’s pressure to fully enter win-now mode, Detmers also makes a lot of sense in this spot.

 

JJ: We didn’t plan it this way, but Veen to the Padres is one of those picks that just seems to fit.

 

 

Click here to see Zac Veen's full scouting report

 

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9

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Mick Abel

Jesuit High, Portland, Ore.

RHP

VIDEO

Notes:

JJ: Abel was already one of the most well-rounded and projectable prep arms in the class. Now he’s throwing in the mid-to-high-90s to go with his best-in-class slider and advanced changeup.

 

Carlos: Hearing about the increased physicality and stuff that Abel has added over the offseason makes me incredibly disappointed we never got a real chance to see him. Abel could be a frontline monster one day.

 

 

Click here to see Mick Abel's full scouting report

 

LESS

10

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Reid Detmers

Louisville

LHP

VIDEO

Notes:

Carlos: While I am surprised Detmers got to this spot, I think when you take into account some of the realistic upside of players in front of him, this does make some sense. It seems like the Angels could use pitching every year, so I think this fits well with a need, and with talent on the board.

 

JJ: I feel like this is about the floor of where Detmers could go. He fits anywhere from six to here.

 

 

Click here to see Reid Detmers' full scouting report

 

LESS

11

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Garrett Crochet

Tennessee

LHP

VIDEO

Notes:

JJ: Where the White Sox are in their rebuild, it makes sense to go with a college arm or a college bat. Crochet carries some moderate risk because he missed time early this season, but before the shutdown, he showed some of the best pure stuff in a strong 2020 pitching class.

 

Carlos: Similar to Meyer, Crochet has plenty of upside to offer and I also think a college player would make sense considering Chicago’s window. This seems to be the range where Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad’s market could really open up.

 

 

Click here to see Garrett Crochet's full scouting report

 

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Austin Hendrick

West Allegheny HS, Imperial, Pa.

OF

VIDEO

Notes:

Carlos: The Reds certainly have gone after SEC performers in recent years (Nick Lodolo, Jonathan India, Nick Senzel) and they have a few options on the board here, but at some point Austin Hendrick’s power and upside will be too much to pass up. I think Cincinnati could use an infusion of talent in the lower levels of their system.

 

JJ: There have been four Pennsylvania prep position players taken in the first round in the 21st century. The Reds had some success taking Devin Mesoraco out of Punxsutawney in 2007.

 

 

Click here to see Austin Hendrick's full scouting report

 

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Heston Kjerstad

Arkansas

OF

VIDEO

Notes:

JJ: The Giants already have Joey Bart, so Patrick Bailey may not fit perfectly here. Kjerstad gives the club another potent college bat to help the rebuild.

 

Carlos: I wonder if the Giants would be tempted with one of Meyer or Crochet if either arm were to reach them in this spot.

 

 

Click here to see Heston Kjerstad's full scouting report

 

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Patrick Bailey

North Carolina State

C

VIDEO

Notes:

Carlos: The Rangers have been burned by some prep picks in recent years and last year went to a relatively safe demographic with Texas Tech third baseman Josh Jung. Bailey also has a high floor in this draft class and I think fits on talent in this 10-15 range.

 

JJ: Much like the Royals, I think the Rangers’ rebuild is at a point where closer-to-the-major college players make more sense.

 

 

Click here to see Patrick Bailey's full scouting report

 

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Cade Cavalli

Oklahoma

RHP

VIDEO

Notes:

JJ: The Phillies haven’t taken a pitcher in the first round since they selected Aaron Nola in 2014. This may be a little steep for where he could go, but he has a higher ceiling than a number of the other college pitchers in this range.

 

Carlos: At this point too many sources have put Cavalli in the first round for me to expect him to fall out of it. While this is the higher range of where I would have him, I think it makes sense. He checks a significant number of boxes if you’re looking for a frontline arm.

 

 

Click here to see Cade Cavalli's full scouting report

 

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Tyler Soderstrom

Turlock (Calif.) HS

C

VIDEO

Notes:

Carlos: Soderstrom has a lot of buzz in the 10-20 range and I feel pretty confident that someone in that range is going to like the upside of his bat and power too much to let him slide. While he might not be a catcher long-term, everyone loves the bat.

 

JJ: I will be interested if the likely arrival of robo-umps will help Soderstrom stay at catcher, but the bat plays whether he’s a catcher or somewhere else.

 

 

Click here to see Tyler Soderstrom's full scouting report

 

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Pete Crow-Armstrong

Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif.

OF

VIDEO

Notes:

JJ: Crow-Armstrong or Robert Hassell both fit here, but Crow-Armstrong’s upside and defensive value give him the edge to me.

 

Carlos: I’m curious whether or not teams will penalize Crow-Armstrong for the lack of development that some other notable SoCal center fielders like Mickey Moniak and Blake Rutherford have shown recently—but that seems like warped logic. This is the range I’ve heard PCA mentioned in and he is one of the better prep center fielders I’ve ever seen.

 

 

Click here to see Pete Crow-Armstrong's full scouting report

 

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Robert Hassell

Independence HS, Thompson's Station, Tenn.

OF

VIDEO

Notes:

Carlos: I think Hassell could be a fit in the same range that I mentioned for Soderstrom and this would continue Arizona’s attachment for polished hit tools. Hassell might be the best pure hitter in the 2020 high school class—I think this would be exceptional value.

 

JJ: Hassell can really, really hit. So could Corbin Carroll. A rich farm system gets richer.

 

 

Click here to see Robert Hassell's full scouting report

 

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Jared Kelley

Refugio (Texas) HS

RHP

VIDEO

Notes:

JJ: The Mets had tended to wait until the second or third rounds to take a prep arm, but Kelley would pair nicely with last year’s picks of Josh Wolf and Matt Allan.

 

Carlos: I think the gap between Abel and Kelley on this draft board overstates the difference in their talent level. The Mets have taken prep bats with their first-round picks in the last two drafts, so if any of those hitters fall to this range I could see them going here as well.

 

 

Click here to see Jared Kelley's full scouting report

 

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Austin Wells

Arizona

RHP

VIDEO

Notes:

Carlos: At this point I think Wells has the best bat on the board, and the gap between him and the next-best hitter seems pretty significant in my mind, though there are a ton of interesting college arms who start to make sense in this range as well.

 

JJ: There does seem to be a gap here from Wells to the next college hitter. There are some college middle infielders with well-rounded potential, but Wells is the best college bat left in this tier.

 

 

Click here to see Austin Wells' full scouting report

 

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Tanner Burns

Auburn

RHP

VIDEO

Notes:

JJ: Burns is a polished performer (14-9, 2.86 in 188.2 IP with 210 strikeouts and 67 walks) in a top-notch college conference. The Cardinals have had plenty of success in that demographic with Dakota Hudson, Luke Weaver and Michael Wacha.

 

Carlos: I think there are pitchers on the board who have more upside than Burns here, but outside of Detmers, I think he’s one of the more high-baseline pitchers in the class. His track record is impressive.

 

 

Click here to see Tanner Burns' full scouting report

 

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JT Ginn

Mississippi State

RHP

Notes:

Carlos: There’s not a player who screams Nationals first-round pick more than Ginn in this class. They’re not going to care about his elbow injury, and they might be right in thinking that, as his pure talent fits much closer to the top 10.

 

JJ: Completely agree. The Nationals have had plenty of willingness to take pitchers recovering from elbow injuries (Lucas Giolito, Erick Fedde).

 

 

Click here to see JT Ginn's full scouting report

 

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Nick Bitsko

Central Bucks East HS, Doylestown, Pa.

RHP

VIDEO

Notes:

JJ: Like Abel, Bitsko didn’t get to pitch in a game this spring, but he fits here for all the reasons Carlos lays out below.

 

Carlos: Bitsko screams Indians pick in the same way that Ginn and the Nationals makes sense. Bitsko is young for the class, he’s a prep arm and he has considerable upside.

 

 

Click here to see Nick Bitsko's full scouting report

 

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Chris McMahon

Miami

RHP

Notes:

Carlos: The Rays have taken players from all sorts of demographics in recent years. They don’t seem to have a type lately. So I’ll peg them with a polished college arm who is getting a lot of chatter in the 20-30 range. McMahon doesn’t have many holes to speak of.

 

JJ: This feels to me like a pick that makes sense more because McMahon fits around here than for any clear tie to the Rays.

 

 

Click here to see Chris McMahon's full scouting report

 

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Cole Wilcox

Georgia

RHP

VIDEO

Notes:

Carlos: This seems like more of a pick that the previous regime in Atlanta would make, but the talent fits. I wonder if Atlanta would be interested in the next tier of college hitters that includes Nick Loftin, Alika Williams, Casey Martin, Jordan Westburg and Aaron Sabato. Or a more high-floor college arm like Carmen Mlodzinski.

 

JJ: You are correct that I’m tying this probably too much to Braves trends that go back to Roy Clark and John Schuerholz, not the current Alex Anthopoulous regime, but the talent fits here. It’s worth noting that Georgia has only had three pitchers drafted in the first round. The Bulldogs should see two go in the first round this year.

 

 

Click here to see Cole Wilcox's full scouting report

 

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Slade Cecconi

Miami

RHP

Notes:

Carlos: I’m curious to see whether Cecconi goes before or after his Miami teammate. I think Cecconi has a higher ceiling, but also a few more questions to answer. It’s hard for me to forget the first time I saw Cecconi throw as a rising senior in high school. His upside is exceptional and I love the way his arm works.

 

JJ: The McMahon vs. Cecconi debate will be a fun one to watch. It’s a shame we didn’t get to see if one could have separated himself more over the course of a normal season. For all of Miami’s success over the years, if Cecconi and McMahon both go in the first round, they will double the total number of Hurricane pitchers picked in the first round (joining Carlos Gutierrez and Cesar Carrillo).

 

 

Click here to see Slade Cecconi's full scouting report

 

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Dillon Dingler

Ohio State

C

Notes:

JJ: Dingler is someone rising up boards. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him slide into the back of the first round, although he could fit anywhere from here to the early second round.

 

Carlos: This pick checks out with some of the late heat I’ve heard with Dingler. I’m not sure if the Twins specifically are the team to take him, but anywhere around here through pick No. 40 makes sense to me.

 

 

Click here to see Dillon Dingler's full scouting report

 

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Nick Loftin

Baylor

SS

VIDEO

Notes:

Carlos: Like Dingler, I keep hearing Loftin’s name mentioned towards the back of the first round. He’s that college performer who everyone likes, and he started tapping into more power before the 2020 season got shut down.

 

JJ: The track record on college middle infielders who perform is generally quite good. I like this pick for the Yankees.

 

 

Click here to see Nick Loftin's full scouting report

 

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Ed Howard

Mount Carmel (Ill.) HS

SS

VIDEO

Notes:

JJ: This is a poor prep shortstop class, but if Howard slides to pick 29 and gets taken by the Dodgers, it sure feels like the rich getting richer. The Dodgers’ player development system does a wonderful job and when Los Angeles goes with a prep position player in the first round, its success rate has been excellent (Gavin Lux and Corey Seager are the two they have taken in the past decade).

 

Carlos: This would be the latest the first prep shortstop has come off the board since 2006. It’s not a great class at the top for prep shortstops, but I would love to see Howard in this system.

 

 

Click here to see Ed Howard's full scouting report

[BlueRocky]

[Jimcanuck]

Am I the only one with serious misgivings of taking a pitcher with a top pick? Unless a pitcher is considered a generational talent, I'd go with a bat. If Lacy or Hancock are available at #5, would you take one them or go with Veen or Mitchell?

[Carlos Danger]

Am I the only one with serious misgivings of taking a pitcher with a top pick? Unless a pitcher is considered a generational talent, I'd go with a bat. If Lacy or Hancock are available at #5, would you take one them or go with Veen or Mitchell?

 

If you are talking real life vs Fantasy. Look at the 2009 Draft.

 

We all know Stratsburg went # 1

 

The first hitter taken was Dustin Ackley at #2 then another hitter at #3 and #4.

 

Pitchers were taken 5 through 12

 

The pitchers from 5 through 12 had as an aggregate, much better careers then the hitters who were 2 through 4.

[Jimcanuck]

If you are talking real life vs Fantasy. Look at the 2009 Draft.

 

We all know Stratsburg went # 1

 

The first hitter taken was Dustin Ackley at #2 then another hitter at #3 and #4.

 

Pitchers were taken 5 through 12

 

The pitchers from 5 through 12 had as an aggregate, much better careers then the hitters who were 2 through 4.

 

That's one draft lol

 

What's your answer to the question I posed? Lacy / Hancock or Veen / Mitchell?

[BlueRocky]

Am I the only one with serious misgivings of taking a pitcher with a top pick? Unless a pitcher is considered a generational talent, I'd go with a bat. If Lacy or Hancock are available at #5, would you take one them or go with Veen or Mitchell?

 

It’s understandable given the risk, I’ve been debating on this point as well. I’d also rather take a bat and actually hope we land Nick Gonzales or Zac Veen assuming Torkelson and Martin are off the board. But if there’s a year to take college pitching this is one of the years to do it. They took Alek Manoah last season despite several good bats available, and went with a vanderbilt commit in Kendall Williams after that, Atkins & team seem to be coveting arms to compliment our position core.

 

This is perhaps the deepest college pitching class in the past decade, and the two guys potentially available are in a class of their own. If Emerson Hancock was draft eligible last year, there would’ve been serious consideration between Hancock and Rutschman as the no. 1 overall pick. And the drop off between Hancock and the next two (Lodolo & Manoah) were cataclysmic in eyes of the industry and scouts at the time.

 

Hancock’s early struggles in 2020 were also way overblown due to small sample, he looked like an absolute stud by his 4th start, right before COVID ended the college season.

He went 7.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 K in his last start against UMASS.

 

I went back and watched games of his 2019 season, he is pretty legit with both pitchability, physicality, & stuff. He sat 97-98 mph deep into his start with plus command in one of the games I watched. He is typically 93-96, T99 with solid changeup and slider, curveball flashes potential. The stuff is front of the rotation with plus-command on his fastball. He’s a late bloomer similar to Casey Mize, there’s a lot of unscratched potential there in both his frame and development of his secondaries. That’s saying a lot about a guy that had 1.99 ERA, 97K/18BB last season in 90.1 IP, and one of the runner ups for 2019 golden spikes.

 

Asa Lacy has really surprised scouts this season in the first four starts. By far the best-looking college pitching prospect if you’re just purely looking at 2020 and pure stuff.

 

I watched a couple of his games from 2019, he has an obvious mound presence that you don’t really see, even with Hancock. His breaking balls are more advanced and downright nasty, while sitting 94-96 mph most games, touching 97 on occasion. The word on Lacy has been his improved command from last season, which has translated to higher K and much lower BB. I try to point out exactly what has changed from 2019, it looks to me his delivery is a bit more consistent and his arm slot is higher. Fastball command was his primary achilles heel last season which has somewhat been rectified in early showing 2020.

 

But it’s still a work in progress IMO, you often see wild pitches that miss badly in the dirt or way upstairs, and his pitch counts run up often. Acy also is a culprit of losing control and hitting batters often. I saw him plunk a guy in an 0-2 count and nobody was surprised. He hit 13 guys last season and 43 walks in 15 starts, 88.2 IP. Even in 2020 he’s plunked 4 guys in 4 starts, 24 IP. When his stuff is working he looks like an ace, so it’s really about consistency. I feel like he’s deliberately trying to strikeout guys, maybe trying a little too hard, fishing for K’s when he’s ahead in the count, rather than just getting them out and challenging hitters. But for a lefty it’s really premium stuff, and i can see why JJ Cooper thinks he’s potentially a no. 1 overall pick level talent.

Edited April 15, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Carlos Danger]

That's one draft lol

 

What's your answer to the question I posed? Lacy / Hancock or Veen / Mitchell?

 

If I were Blue Jays FO- Veen.

[Brownie19]

There's more to it than just who's the guy you want. If I can get Veen underslot and leverage that to get a top 30 talent with our 42nd pick - than I think that's a sexy option and is something this FO has done before.

[BlueRocky]

The BA draft list extended to 400 with a few updates

By Carlos Collazo

 

Baseball America’s MLB Draft Prospects rankings are compiled in consultation with scouts and evaluators from major league clubs.

 

April 13 Update: Today we’re expanding our draft list to the top 400 players in the country, adding 50 more reports at the top of the list and also making a few tweaks to the list where necessary. Over the last few weeks we’ve continued to have conversations with scouts and solicited feedback from directors, crosscheckers and others on how the players in the 2020 class stack up. Below are notable movers at the top of the draft list.

 

No. 22 Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma (+10)

No. 37 Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State (+38)

No. 45 Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke (+36)

No. 47 Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest (+29)

No. 69 Kyle Nicolas, RHP, Ball State (+17)

No. 87 Nick Yorke, SS, Archbishop Mitty HS, San Jose, Calif. (+177)

No. 94 Anthony Servideo, SS, Mississippi (+62)

No. 98 Connor Phillips, RHP, McLennan (Texas) JC (+52)

No. 107 Stevie Emanuels, RHP, Washington

No. 127 Dane Acker, RHP, Oklahoma (+86)

It’s notable that most of the biggest risers here are college performers, and a majority of the players are pitchers, again highlighting the depth of the college pitching class and the difficulty of lining that specific demographic up accurately.

[Krylian]

The BA draft list extended to 400 with a few updates

 

Dillon Dingler needs to be drafted just for his name alone.

[BlueRocky]

Dillon Dingler needs to be drafted just for his name alone.

 

For sure that’s a great name.

This class also has a “Itchy Burts”, “Zacchaeus Rasberry”, “Scotty Scott”, “Blake Deatherage”, “Konnor Zickefoose”, and “Bubba Hubbard”

[jays4life19]

Don't even care about scouting reports and not going to look him up but Itchy Burts needs to be a Toronto Bluejay.

[THANOS]

Am I the only one with serious misgivings of taking a pitcher with a top pick? Unless a pitcher is considered a generational talent, I'd go with a bat. If Lacy or Hancock are available at #5, would you take one them or go with Veen or Mitchell?

 

BPA man regardless of type. If a hitter is the BPA on the Jays' board at 5, take him, if he's not so be it.

[Spanky99]

BPA man regardless of type. If a hitter is the BPA on the Jays' board at 5, take him, if he's not so be it.

 

I 100% agree with this, but I think he's asking our preference, I'm really liking Veen personally, we're getting a damn good player, regardless. lol

[THANOS]

I 100% agree with this, but I think he's asking our preference, I'm really liking Veen personally, we're getting a damn good player, regardless. lol

 

Yeah I agree. Based on what I've read and watched with my unqualified opinion, I like Veen a lot, maybe more than both pitchers and even Gonzales.

 

1) Austin Martin

2) Spencer Torkelson

3) Zac Veen/Nick Gonzales

4) Zac Veen/Nick Gonzales

5) Emerson Hancock

6) Asa Lacy

 

I probably rank them like that. But I don't know s*** lol.