Astros vs. Blue Jays - June 14, 2019

[Dick_Pole]

I feel like anyone still watching these games and actively posting here is in one of those contests where you try to be the last person with their hand on a prize in order to win it. But instead of winning something nice like a car, you win disappointment and irritation and witnessing very bad baseball.

[Abomination]

Yeah, Siddal explained that well, still miscommunication any way we look at it.

 

Definitely, and something that can't happen.

[Ex Player]

I feel like anyone still watching these games and actively posting here is in one of those contests where you try to be the last person with their hand on a prize in order to win it. But instead of winning something nice like a car, you win disappointment and irritation and witnessing very bad baseball

I think most here are watching to see how the kids are developing, not so much for the wins

[5ToolPhenom]

Attaboy Cavan... I legit love his swing.

 

He's had some nice rips and has good plate discipline. I've liked what I've seen out of this kid. Hopefully he becomes one of the bright spots of the season.

[Dick_Pole]

I think most here are watching to see how the kids are developing, not so much for the wins

 

At best all I can tune into is some of the at bats.

[Spanky99]

I feel like anyone still watching these games and actively posting here is in one of those contests where you try to be the last person with their hand on a prize in order to win it. But instead of winning something nice like a car, you win disappointment and irritation and witnessing very bad baseball.

 

Meh... I watch baseball all the time. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Ex Player]

At best all I can tune into is some of the at bats

It also makes for a great insomnia cure

[Spanky99]

This park's left field is similar to the Green Monster in Fenway. Good hitting.

[Spanky99]

Gibby!!!

[Abomination]

Gibby sounds happy. Says he would like to return in some capacity next year, but needed a break.

[Spanky99]

Alvarez hasn't hit a ball under 108.7 EV, his HR, lol... both singles at 110.2 and 114.1...

[Abomination]

Sanchez is apparently contagious.

 

Maybe some of the Astros pitchers will catch it.

[5ToolPhenom]

Well at least our divisional brothers were similarly embarrassed against Boston tonight haha

[JFD]

This one is looking like one of my MLB the show matches

[Spanky99]

Close Game...

[Ex Player]

Jays are going to mount a comeback, I can feel it

[Daniel Labude]

Jays are going to mount a comeback, I can feel it

 

Only missed it by 13 runs

[Abomination]

This one is looking like one of my MLB the show matches

 

You'll improve. Keep at it, and never give up!

[Orgfiller]

Sanchez hasn’t ever induced weak contact. We were all fooled by a small sample into thinking he was a FIP beater. He’s just a gas can who has no business starting MLB games.

 

I have it on good authority from a prominent, certified radio scout (no, not the blog/podcast guys) that Aaron Sanchez is a proven FIP beater.

[Abomination]

I have it on good authority from a prominent, certified radio scout (no, not the blog/podcast guys) that Aaron Sanchez is a proven FIP beater.

 

He HAS been in the league for at least parts of 6 years, covering 530 innings, and has beaten it in 5 of them (the one that missed was 4.89 vs 4.74). Proven might be a bit strong, but it's not an unreasonable suggestion. The main issue is with regards to whether it matters.

[Abomination]

Of the Astros 4 home runs today, 2 of them had an 8% hit probability, and one had a 31%.

[BTS]

He HAS been in the league for at least parts of 6 years, covering 530 innings, and has beaten it in 5 of them (the one that missed was 4.89 vs 4.74). Proven might be a bit strong, but it's not an unreasonable suggestion. The main issue is with regards to whether it matters.

 

I think we should probably chalk it up to luck. It’s still less than three full seasons of data, and the difference isn’t supported by weak contact.

[glory]

Once Giles is traded, move Sanchez to the closer role. Convince him and Boras that he'll make more money as a reliever than a starter, and then trade him as a RP next summer. Even as a RP rental he'd probably fetch more than as a SP with 1.5 years of control left.

[Abomination]

I think we should probably chalk it up to luck. It’s still less than three full seasons of data, and the difference isn’t supported by weak contact.

 

I don't think it has anything to do with luck, just flaws in the process used by FIP, xFIP, etc. They're some of the best tools we have at our disposal, but they aren't perfect, especially when it comes to pitchers like Sanchez and Estrada who live at the extremes.

[BTS]

I don't think it has anything to do with luck, just flaws in the process used by FIP, xFIP, etc. They're some of the best tools we have at our disposal, but they aren't perfect, especially when it comes to pitchers like Sanchez and Estrada who live at the extremes.

 

What extremes does he live at?

[Abomination]

What extremes does he live at?

 

High ground ball rate combined with high walk rates.

[Abomination]

Actually, it's kind of interesting. Between 2016 and this year, we've essentially at some point had (either at the majors or previously minors) 6 of the top 21 ground ball pitchers.

 

It might be time to change things up.

[BTS]

High ground ball rate combined with high walk rates.

 

I don’t think there’s any reason you’d expect that to beat DIPS in a way that doesn’t show up in the data via low ev on ground balls or something. The exit velo on the ground balls he gives up is actually above average IIRC. There’s really nothing to suggest we should expect Sanchez to keep beating his DIPS and 550 innings or whatever isn’t a huge sample. The best explanation at this point is that he got lucky.

[Spanky99]

Once Giles is traded, move Sanchez to the closer role. Convince him and Boras that he'll make more money as a reliever than a starter, and then trade him as a RP next summer. Even as a RP rental he'd probably fetch more than as a SP with 1.5 years of control left.

 

They don't have to convince anybody s***, just move him to the pen. They can't tell the team how to run things, lol.

[Spanky99]

I don’t think there’s any reason you’d expect that to beat DIPS in a way that doesn’t show up in the data via low ev on ground balls or something. The exit velo on the ground balls he gives up is actually above average IIRC. There’s really nothing to suggest we should expect Sanchez to keep beating his DIPS and 550 innings or whatever isn’t a huge sample. The best explanation at this point is that he got lucky.

 

What were his DIPS as a reliever, do you know? I agree by the way. Never mind, found it... so much better.

Edited June 15, 2019 by Spanky99