Do the Blue Jays ever consider a sac bunt?

[EastCoaster]

Because bunting is, by and large, a horrible thing to do in baseball, so wasting time to learn it is taking away time you could practice an actual skill that matters.

 

Obviously you don't know how baseball is supposed to be played anyone can tell you that bunting is good in baseball for different reasons. First off strategically a bunt can be used against a tough pitcher, it also can be used against a poor fielding team, it can be used against the shift no matter how slow the runner is there's noway a 3rd baseman standing near second base can get to a ball bunted at 3rd and throw the runner out at first . The element of the bunt is to catch the opposing team by surprise and disrupt their defense it can presents so many option to the offensive team in advancing players, in scoring or simply get on base. The bunt is very good in baseball and leaves a managers with options to play different types of baseball.

[Brownie19]

Obviously you don't know how baseball is supposed to be played anyone can tell you that bunting is good in baseball for different reasons. First off strategically a bunt can be used against a tough pitcher, it also can be used against a poor fielding team, it can be used against the shift no matter how slow the runner is there's noway a 3rd baseman standing near second base can get to a ball bunted at 3rd and throw the runner out at first . The element of the bunt is to catch the opposing team by surprise and disrupt their defense it can presents so many option to the offensive team in advancing players, in scoring or simply get on base. The bunt is very good in baseball and leaves a managers with options to play different types of baseball.

 

I don't think you're going to enjoy your experience on this board. Nobody around here know's baseball like you do.

Edited April 11, 2019 by Brownie19

[Omar]

Assuming this is troll thread but from last series in Cleveland thread...

 

Honestly I think it is you who is missing the point.

 

1. Run expectancy is not a team stat, ie. good teams and s***** teams. It is a stat based on individual ab's of all players in the league to determine outcomes measured in runs. Bad teams can have good hitters and vice versa (Goins was on the 2015,16 Jays). Run expectancies have the same veracity for bad teams as they do for good teams.

 

2. The fact that run expectancy when a player is allowed to bat is higher than when he bunts is true irrespective of how good/bad the team is. On a s***** team team, yes the chances of a producing a run via a hit is lower than a good team, but it is still better than bunting for that same s***** team. A poor hitting team just moves down on the run expectancy scale, but their run expectancy via a bunt also moves down. It is all relative and not based on how good or bad a team is.

 

3. No one puts weight on metrics based on two games in Cleveland much less a season with 10 games played. Why would you even bring up such a weak point? (

)

 

4. Another glaring omission is that you fail to consider babip. With a runner in scoring position just putting the ball in play could yield a run. BABIP in mlb is somewhere around .300 year over year. That is why you swing the bat, EVERYTIME, because as Tercet will tell you, even Gurriel can get a hit if he puts the ball in play. Why give up those odds for even lower odds with a bunt? With a runner on second and no outs, it is unfathomable why anyone would chose to bunt.

 

“outs are a commodity. They are the currency by which the game is governed, and willfully giving up an out is never worth the extra base that a bunt can provide. It's trading a piece of gold for a piece of silver."

Greg Jayne

 

 

[Carlos Danger]

Originally Posted by Omar View Post

Honestly I think it is you who is missing the point.

 

1. Run expectancy is not a team stat, ie. good teams and s***** teams. It is a stat based on individual ab's of all players in the league to determine outcomes measured in runs. Bad teams can have good hitters and vice versa (Goins was on the 2015,16 Jays). Run expectancies have the same veracity for bad teams as they do for good teams.

 

2. The fact that run expectancy when a player is allowed to bat is higher than when he bunts is true irrespective of how good/bad the team is. On a s***** team team, yes the chances of a producing a run via a hit is lower than a good team, but it is still better than bunting for that same s***** team. A poor hitting team just moves down on the run expectancy scale, but their run expectancy via a bunt also moves down. It is all relative and not based on how good or bad a team is.

 

3. No one puts weight on metrics based on two games in Cleveland much less a season with 10 games played. Why would you even bring up such a weak point? (

)

 

4. Another glaring omission is that you fail to consider babip. With a runner in scoring position just putting the ball in play could yield a run. BABIP in mlb is somewhere around .300 year over year. That is why you swing the bat, EVERYTIME, because as Tercet will tell you, even Gurriel can get a hit if he puts the ball in play. Why give up those odds for even lower odds with a bunt? With a runner on second and no outs, it is unfathomable why anyone would chose to bunt.

 

“outs are a commodity. They are the currency by which the game is governed, and willfully giving up an out is never worth the extra base that a bunt can provide. It's trading a piece of gold for a piece of silver."

Greg Jayne

 

 

When you originally posted this I was travelling and did not have a chance to respond. Now you are posting it again like it is one of the Ten Commandments of baseball, I feel obliged to respond and tell you why you are wrong.

1. Run expectancy is not a team stat, ie. good teams and s***** teams. It is a stat based on individual ab's of all players in the league to determine outcomes measured in runs. Bad teams can have good hitters and vice versa (Goins was on the 2015,16 Jays). Run expectancies have the same veracity for bad teams as they do for good teams. Doesn't matter if it is teams or individuals. The high side numbers that get you the average run expectancy are created by good hitters. The Blue Jays, by any reasonable standard did not have any high performing good hitters on their team that series. In that situation bunting was a good move and with the players who were AB or coming to bat you do not have the average run expectancy which is a number derived from the average of GOOD and bad hitters.

This is from Abdomination to my point (Thank you) It pains me to say it, but he's at least partially right. The aggregate data allows us to challenge established (and possibly inaccurate) strategies in general, but it is not correct to blindly apply it to specific situations. What matters in an individual situation is the likelihood for the players coming up in the game to get the runner in. I suspect the data would show that sometimes in individual situations it is correct to bunt, and most of the time it is not.

 

2. The fact that run expectancy when a player is allowed to bat is higher than when he bunts is true irrespective of how good/bad the team is. On a s***** team team, yes the chances of a producing a run via a hit is lower than a good team, but it is still better than bunting for that same s***** team. A poor hitting team just moves down on the run expectancy scale, but their run expectancy via a bunt also moves down. It is all relative and not based on how good or bad a team is.

There is not a correlation between a team that can't score runs via a hit and a team cannot lay a bunt down and score vs an out. You used Ryan Goins as an example of a s***** hitter on good team. Do you know what he could do though? He could bunt... Then with the man on 3rd in 1 out in the SITUATION we were discussing, you only need a good out, hit expectancy does not matter, you can score a good out/pass ball, wild pitch, defensive bobble etc.

 

4. Another glaring omission is that you fail to consider babip. With a runner in scoring position just putting the ball in play could yield a run. BABIP in mlb is somewhere around .300 year over year. That is why you swing the bat, EVERYTIME, because as Tercet will tell you, even Gurriel can get a hit if he puts the ball in play. Why give up those odds for even lower odds with a bunt? With a runner on second and no outs, it is unfathomable why anyone would chose to bunt.

 

I agree 110% with you you want to put the ball in play.. Bunting IS putting the ball in play. You know what is not putting the ball in play? Ks!!! The team that weekend was literally setting records for Ks. FACT: The first time in franchise history the Blue Jays had struck out 13 times in four consecutive games. Only ever done four times EVER in major league history. Dude that is like a 48% K rate of hitters based on 27 outs in a game. So that series you had a near 50% chance of one of our hitters Kng, let alone 2-3 hits back to back hits in an inning.

 

As Abomination rightly points out. There are no absolutes and those numbers are averages that don't always correlate to the situation at hand. Some of you can't see the forest through the trees and think because there is a mathematical % based on aggregate statics that is is always and every time the right play in every situation.

 

If you need one run to win or tie a game in the 9th man on 2b no out, are you going to do the same strategy if you have 2015 JD coming up vs Ryan Goins, are you going to do the exact same strategy if it is 2015 JB vs a lefty then if it is Ryan Goins vs a lefty..

 

The fact of the matter is, we didn't lay down a bunt in Cleveland, the hitter hit away, it was NOT successful and we lost. We didn't bunt last night either, we could have really used a cushion run.. The hitters Kd and didnt get a hit we got nothing and then we lost by a run..

 

With this team so far, situationaly where we have been in games and where we are at as a team this season.. The 2019 Toronto Blue Jays so far do NOT have the average run expectancy per Fangraphs are wherever..

 

This is the real world and a team of sucky, high K low contact hitters, not some spread sheet fantasy league..

[TheHurl]

A fun bunting stats. between 2008 and 2013

 

49.6% of non-pitchers bunts were in play (sample size of 26,000 bunt attempts)

 

that is just in play. Successful bunts would be lower as that in play number includes pop ups, unsuccessful sacrifice attempts and batters bunting for base hits unsuccessfully. Numbers for bunts are really not good. The most successful bunters in history put it in play 70% of the time. It's not a skill being taught anymore so these numbers have probably gone down and will continue to go down. Can we just stop talking cause the really dumb folks trying to sound smart are making my head hurt. Thread closure to follow.

[Spanky99]

Holy f***...

 

[Omar]

I agree 110% with you you want to put the ball in play.. Bunting IS putting the ball in play.

 

Sac bunts are not included in babip for a reason. As for the rest, I've stated the case.

[Carlos Danger]

. Can we just stop talking cause the really dumb folks trying to sound smart are making my head hurt. Thread closure to follow.

 

So, let me address you Hurl, this is also for the board as a whole as a FYI.

 

Since I know the dumb remark is aimed at me, gloves are off Hurl the 50 yr old virgin.

 

I actually voted for you as the best MOD. I want my fnnn vote back.

 

So a number of months ago, the Hurl sent me a few PMs.. I was actually very appreciative, and kind thought like most of you probably do, that the Hurl is some kind Grandpa/Uncle type and fair to all.

 

Wrong! He is more like Creepy Uncle Joe.

 

The Hurl is the most elitist Machiavellian two faced guy on this board. With small to non-existent balls. How do I know he has no balls..

 

The Make me Hurl sent me a PM that basically said that I am not liked on this board because "some on this board" (remember that for later) think I am old school. I respectfully replied Ok, but we are not allowed to be on this board if we don't have a different opinion? Then after that, he wrote me a number of cautionary PMs due to my use of terms and expressions on the board, as well as publicly calling me out on the board. I actually thought those PMs were fair at the time also,. I was WRONG again.

 

I have been on this board long enough now to realize that when the Hurl said some on this board, it meant him. But he didn't have a sack big enough to say it to my face, even via PM. Then I realized that I had been selectively targeted for my use of words and expression that were rampant from other posters and still are and I didn't see one idota of them being called out and I highly doubt they received PMs. Now that my eyes are open, you make BTS look like the best Mod ever.. Congratulations, add miracle worker to your resume.

 

Let's talk about you as a general Mod and not just about your interactions with me.

 

You are an elitist oppressive A-Hole for even suggesting you would close this thread. Are you fnnn serious Uncle Stalin? Under your Super Mod watch of this board you are going to call posters stupid and close a thread for making an opposing argument against the sabremetrics cock you have so far down your throat. All Hail Hurl, the Sabremetrics Dictator. All fall in line or you will ridiculed and threads will be closed. Dissenting thought is not tolerated. Hail sabremetrics or be squashed!

 

I already know how you vote just by your actions on this board. You probably haven't see a ban that hasn't made your little grapes you have hiding in your Speedo tingle.

 

I have no problem with Deadpool, who is diametrically opposed to me on this issue nor Omar. They make their points, we not might agree, but it is a baseball message board, we debate and talk baseball you oppressive special marble Olympic nerd. Same can be said with John Havok, BTS and tons of posters on this board.. They make their arguments, tell me why they think I am f***ed up by sticking to baseball. I disagree with virtually everything Jim says outside of the baseball forum, yet, he never gets personal. I actually think that even though Jim is a card carrying commie, he would never ever want a thread closed for offering baseball opinion.

 

It is more of a joke you want to close this thread when you are taking up pages and pages talking about f***ing Marble or some f***ing nerd Olympics.. You are a fnn horrible Mod who apparently needs to get a life between marbles, blow up dolls and wielding your big stick with small balls on a baseball message board.

 

By the way, I said cock, in this thread.. Cock, balls, suck cock, cock in ass. Am I going to get another cautionary PM.. I will probably be banned, closed minded oppressive personalities like you don't like to be challenged or told they are an internet loser.

 

Have you seen the threads on this board?? Did you see the epileptic meth induced posting seizures that Boxy and Olerud had on this board the other night?

 

Are you on crack that you are threatening to close this thread.. Obviously, it is because this thread is much more challenging to your sabrenazi manifesto you are the nerd king off.

 

It is no secret that Spanky and I had had our issues, but to his credit, at least he tells it to my face as much as you can on the internet.

 

You are weak back stabbing nutless dweeble if you close this thread.

 

If you ban me for this, it really will be a shame because I like a lot of you on this board. I don't have hate for anyone.

 

However, I am going to sleep well at night regardless what you do because I know I would NEVER in million years think about closing a thread that has been respectful and is just debating baseball philosophies. I AM a better person then you and obviously much more secure..

 

Go look in the mirror and repeat after me: I am a horrible MOD and a pathetic little man. I should resign my position, I am not worthy. Do it, do it now!

 

For the record, Not that it should make an fnnn difference. I do believe in a lot of sabremetrics/analytics etc. I love metrics and comparative/ analysis and I am on the forefront of all the above and using data to make us more efficient, and successful in my professional field. I do not however worship it to the point of blind uninhabited worship where I discount human intuition and instincts and don't look at real world scenarios unfolding and make a smart decision, even if it goes against the cult of stats.

 

I think one of the best GMs and he has proven so is Theo Epstien.. Look up any interviews with him and he will tell you gobbed Bill James knob harder than anyone 15 yrs ago. Now he is a mix of old school and new school.. That is exactly what I am.

 

If I am banned fine, if this board is a fall in line with the cult like thinking and be one of the clique or else, and having the town drunk Spanky Simpson follow you around like a leech on your cock , I don't want anything to do with this board.

 

De oppresso liber!

Edited April 13, 2019 by Carlos Danger

[Omar]

Stick around Carlos, it's all good. If we agreed on everything this place would be boring.

[TheHurl]

Are you done with your rant now CD?

[DigitalRock]

So, let me address you Hurl, this is also for the board as a whole as a FYI.

 

Since I know the dumb remark is aimed at me, gloves are off Hurl the 50 yr old virgin.

 

I actually voted for you as the best MOD. I want my fnnn vote back.

 

So a number of months ago, the Hurl sent me a few PMs.. I was actually very appreciative, and kind thought like most of you probably do, that the Hurl is some kind Grandpa/Uncle type and fair to all.

 

Wrong! He is more like Creepy Uncle Joe.

 

The Hurl is the most elitist Machiavellian two faced guy on this board. With small to non-existent balls. How do I know he has no balls..

 

The Make me Hurl sent me a PM that basically said that I am not liked on this board because "some on this board" (remember that for later) think I am old school. I respectfully replied Ok, but we are not allowed to be on this board if we don't have a different opinion? Then after that, he wrote me a number of cautionary PMs due to my use of terms and expressions on the board, as well as publicly calling me out on the board. I actually thought those PMs were fair at the time also,. I was WRONG again.

 

I have been on this board long enough now to realize that when the Hurl said some on this board, it meant him. But he didn't have a sack big enough to say it to my face, even via PM. Then I realized that I had been selectively targeted for my use of words and expression that were rampant from other posters and still are and I didn't see one idota of them being called out and I highly doubt they received PMs. Now that my eyes are open, you make BTS look like the best Mod ever.. Congratulations, add miracle worker to your resume.

 

Let's talk about you as a general Mod and not just about your interactions with me.

 

You are an elitist oppressive A-Hole for even suggesting you would close this thread. Are you fnnn serious Uncle Stalin? Under your Super Mod watch of this board you are going to call posters stupid and close a thread for making an opposing argument against the sabremetrics cock you have so far down your throat. All Hail Hurl, the Sabremetrics Dictator. All fall in line or you will ridiculed and threads will be closed. Dissenting thought is not tolerated. Hail sabremetrics or be squashed!

 

I already know how you vote just by your actions on this board. You probably haven't see a ban that hasn't made your little grapes you have hiding in your Speedo tingle.

 

I have no problem with Deadpool, who is diametrically opposed to me on this issue nor Omar. They make their points, we not might agree, but it is a baseball message board, we debate and talk baseball you oppressive special marble Olympic nerd. Same can be said with John Havok, BTS and tons of posters on this board.. They make their arguments, tell me why they think I am f***ed up by sticking to baseball. I disagree with virtually everything Jim says outside of the baseball forum, yet, he never gets personal. I actually think that even though Jim is a card carrying commie, he would never ever want a thread closed for offering baseball opinion.

 

It is more of a joke you want to close this thread when you are taking up pages and pages talking about f***ing Marble or some f***ing nerd Olympics.. You are a fnn horrible Mod who apparently needs to get a life between marbles, blow up dolls and wielding your big stick with small balls on a baseball message board.

 

By the way, I said cock, in this thread.. Cock, balls, suck cock, cock in ass. Am I going to get another cautionary PM.. I will probably be banned, closed minded oppressive personalities like you don't like to be challenged or told they are an internet loser.

 

Have you seen the threads on this board?? Did you see the epileptic meth induced posting seizures that Boxy and Olerud had on this board the other night?

 

Are you on crack that you are threatening to close this thread.. Obviously, it is because this thread is much more challenging to your sabrenazi manifesto you are the nerd king off.

 

It is no secret that Spanky and I had had our issues, but to his credit, at least he tells it to my face as much as you can on the internet.

 

You are weak back stabbing nutless dweeble if you close this thread.

 

If you ban me for this, it really will be a shame because I like a lot of you on this board. I don't have hate for anyone.

 

However, I am going to sleep well at night regardless what you do because I know I would NEVER in million years think about closing a thread that has been respectful and is just debating baseball philosophies. I AM a better person then you and obviously much more secure..

 

Go look in the mirror and repeat after me: I am a horrible MOD and a pathetic little man. I should resign my position, I am not worthy. Do it, do it now!

 

For the record, Not that it should make an fnnn difference. I do believe in a lot of sabremetrics/analytics etc. I love metrics and comparative/ analysis and I am on the forefront of all the above and using data to make us more efficient, and successful in my professional field. I do not however worship it to the point of blind uninhabited worship where I discount human intuition and instincts and don't look at real world scenarios unfolding and make a smart decision, even if it goes against the cult of stats.

 

I think one of the best GMs and he has proven so is Theo Epstien.. Look up any interviews with him and he will tell you gobbed Bill James knob harder than anyone 15 yrs ago. Now he is a mix of old school and new school.. That is exactly what I am.

 

If I am banned fine, if this board is a fall in line with the cult like thinking and be one of the clique or else, and having the town drunk Spanky Simpson follow you around like a leech on your cock , I don't want anything to do with this board.

 

De oppresso liber!

 

This is such a 2019 victim mentality post.

[Carlos Danger]

This is such a 2019 victim mentality post.

 

Actually it is the opposite.. I am saying I am sticking to my guns, holding my ground and calling someone out. However, if that is all you get from it so be it. I believe in free thought and differing opinions on this board, no matter how f***ed up..

[Spanky99]

Actually it is the opposite.. I am saying I am sticking to my guns, holding my ground and calling someone out. However, if that is all you get from it so be it. I believe in free thought and differing opinions on this board, no matter how f***ed up..

 

Dumn... per se...

[Spanky99]

Are you done with your rant now CD?

 

That rant is egregious and indefensible.

[Carlos Danger]

That rant is egregious and indefensible.

 

You missed 4 innings of baseball looking up those big words.. I am impressed though, your normal vocabulary consists of dumbr, errr, duh, and other caveman words.

[Spanky99]

You missed 4 innings of baseball looking up those big words.. I am impressed though, your normal vocabulary consists of dumbr, errr, duh, and other caveman words.

 

Attagirl.

[jays4life19]

So, let me address you Hurl, this is also for the board as a whole as a FYI.

 

Since I know the dumb remark is aimed at me, gloves are off Hurl the 50 yr old virgin.

 

I actually voted for you as the best MOD. I want my fnnn vote back.

 

So a number of months ago, the Hurl sent me a few PMs.. I was actually very appreciative, and kind thought like most of you probably do, that the Hurl is some kind Grandpa/Uncle type and fair to all.

 

Wrong! He is more like Creepy Uncle Joe.

 

The Hurl is the most elitist Machiavellian two faced guy on this board. With small to non-existent balls. How do I know he has no balls..

 

The Make me Hurl sent me a PM that basically said that I am not liked on this board because "some on this board" (remember that for later) think I am old school. I respectfully replied Ok, but we are not allowed to be on this board if we don't have a different opinion? Then after that, he wrote me a number of cautionary PMs due to my use of terms and expressions on the board, as well as publicly calling me out on the board. I actually thought those PMs were fair at the time also,. I was WRONG again.

 

I have been on this board long enough now to realize that when the Hurl said some on this board, it meant him. But he didn't have a sack big enough to say it to my face, even via PM. Then I realized that I had been selectively targeted for my use of words and expression that were rampant from other posters and still are and I didn't see one idota of them being called out and I highly doubt they received PMs. Now that my eyes are open, you make BTS look like the best Mod ever.. Congratulations, add miracle worker to your resume.

 

Let's talk about you as a general Mod and not just about your interactions with me.

 

You are an elitist oppressive A-Hole for even suggesting you would close this thread. Are you fnnn serious Uncle Stalin? Under your Super Mod watch of this board you are going to call posters stupid and close a thread for making an opposing argument against the sabremetrics cock you have so far down your throat. All Hail Hurl, the Sabremetrics Dictator. All fall in line or you will ridiculed and threads will be closed. Dissenting thought is not tolerated. Hail sabremetrics or be squashed!

 

I already know how you vote just by your actions on this board. You probably haven't see a ban that hasn't made your little grapes you have hiding in your Speedo tingle.

 

I have no problem with Deadpool, who is diametrically opposed to me on this issue nor Omar. They make their points, we not might agree, but it is a baseball message board, we debate and talk baseball you oppressive special marble Olympic nerd. Same can be said with John Havok, BTS and tons of posters on this board.. They make their arguments, tell me why they think I am f***ed up by sticking to baseball. I disagree with virtually everything Jim says outside of the baseball forum, yet, he never gets personal. I actually think that even though Jim is a card carrying commie, he would never ever want a thread closed for offering baseball opinion.

 

It is more of a joke you want to close this thread when you are taking up pages and pages talking about f***ing Marble or some f***ing nerd Olympics.. You are a fnn horrible Mod who apparently needs to get a life between marbles, blow up dolls and wielding your big stick with small balls on a baseball message board.

 

By the way, I said cock, in this thread.. Cock, balls, suck cock, cock in ass. Am I going to get another cautionary PM.. I will probably be banned, closed minded oppressive personalities like you don't like to be challenged or told they are an internet loser.

 

Have you seen the threads on this board?? Did you see the epileptic meth induced posting seizures that Boxy and Olerud had on this board the other night?

 

Are you on crack that you are threatening to close this thread.. Obviously, it is because this thread is much more challenging to your sabrenazi manifesto you are the nerd king off.

 

It is no secret that Spanky and I had had our issues, but to his credit, at least he tells it to my face as much as you can on the internet.

 

You are weak back stabbing nutless dweeble if you close this thread.

 

If you ban me for this, it really will be a shame because I like a lot of you on this board. I don't have hate for anyone.

 

However, I am going to sleep well at night regardless what you do because I know I would NEVER in million years think about closing a thread that has been respectful and is just debating baseball philosophies. I AM a better person then you and obviously much more secure..

 

Go look in the mirror and repeat after me: I am a horrible MOD and a pathetic little man. I should resign my position, I am not worthy. Do it, do it now!

 

For the record, Not that it should make an fnnn difference. I do believe in a lot of sabremetrics/analytics etc. I love metrics and comparative/ analysis and I am on the forefront of all the above and using data to make us more efficient, and successful in my professional field. I do not however worship it to the point of blind uninhabited worship where I discount human intuition and instincts and don't look at real world scenarios unfolding and make a smart decision, even if it goes against the cult of stats.

 

I think one of the best GMs and he has proven so is Theo Epstien.. Look up any interviews with him and he will tell you gobbed Bill James knob harder than anyone 15 yrs ago. Now he is a mix of old school and new school.. That is exactly what I am.

 

If I am banned fine, if this board is a fall in line with the cult like thinking and be one of the clique or else, and having the town drunk Spanky Simpson follow you around like a leech on your cock , I don't want anything to do with this board.

 

De oppresso liber!

 

Okay, i have some thoughts on this.

 

This is just my opinion, and might be shared by some, but some guys it might be a bit early to tell, and don't want to jump the gun on (see Hinske and Wells, though Wells, wasn't as bad, especially since AA somehow unloaded that contract) since you don't know if the player will regress or the league figure them out. I do like the idea of trying to get guys locked into fair, but team friendly deals, so it helps you know your budget with a bit more certainty years down the line, and if the player continues at their performance, wonderful, if they get even better, then it's a steal. On the other hand, you could wind up playing for a player who winds up injury plagued (sometimes that can't be helped, either it's just their body, or freak accidents, like JB getting his cleat stuck in the seem of the OF turn and straining his knee), or someone who doesn't live up to what they did before, or gets worse. But for sake of argument, and for the purposes of this thread, I'll throw out some names on who I would try to lock up, at least through arbitration, or a deal that includes team options for those years, so if the player doesn't have a good year, is injured, the team can decline the option, and either non-tender them, or go to arbitration/avoid it by signing them to a cheaper deal (Saunders this year received a very small, relative to arbitration, salary increase due to him being injured, and didn't have a leg to stand on to fight for a larger payday, and no that wasn't meant to be a s***** pun). So, here's my list:

 

Osuna. Relief pitchers are notoriously unstable, with the exception of a few, and they're usually closers, or set-up men. Roberto has been our closer the past two years (his first two in the bigs, and I believe the first time above A ball, correct me if I'm wrong). He seems to have had essentially a similar year to his first, minus some hiccups here and there, which, he's human, it's to be expected, but in the playoffs, he was even better than last year, going 9.0 IP giving up 0, as in zero, runs, walked no one, and struck out 10, better than last post season. He pitched about as many innings and games this year as last, so it's fair to compare them. Of course we don't know how he'll be next year, no one can predict how a player will be, but if he remains as is, he could get expensive in arbitration, and quickly, especially if he keeps racking up saves, and making big leaguers look foolish. He's also young, very young for his success, by MLB standards, (I think he'll be 23), and some guys don't break into the bigs until around 25 give or take. So, he still has some pretty good years ahead of him. Even if his velocity begins to drop, as it does with many pitchers just due to age, he seems to know how to pitch, already has two good off speed pitches in his slider, and change-up, so he could adjust a bit more easily, since he can locate the ball pretty well. He's only entering his 3rd year, and unless he gets sent down, which I don't see happening, he'll be eligible for arbitration next off season. They could try to go with a one-year deal, and talk extension, or if he has another solid year, or even better now that he's had more experience around, I wouldn't mind seeing them buyout his arbitration years, and maybe a year of FA, or just the arbitration years, and some team options. To keep the AAV lower, and maybe have him accept, offer larger buyouts on the options, or give him signing bonuses that would be paid, say first day of April of each year, when they're in Florida, so he doesn't lose income tax. Worse case, I would go one year of arbitration (hopefully avoiding it) to see what he does in 2017, and then maybe a 3-4 year deal with 1-2 options on it depending on the guaranteed years and money, and maybe some signing bonuses or larger buyouts than the typical $250-500K ones.

 

Sanchez. If Cot's is correct, this is his last year before he'll be eligible for arbitration in the offseason. So, similar deal with Osuna. I would let him play this season out, see how it goes, and if he pitches like he did this year, or better yet, improves on it, showing no signs of fatigue, or regression, or injury, make a similar offer where his arbitration years are bought out, with possibly a year or two of FA, either guaranteed or via option(s). He's still young, and if he can reproduce what he did last year, and better yet improve, he's a force to lead the rotation, and could get expensive, so offering up some guaranteed years, with some options, and/or higher buyouts, might be worth it.

 

Stroman. He qualified as a Super Two and will be eligible for arbitration this offseason with a projection of about $3-3.5M depending on your source. Keep in mind, many of them have predicted big contracts for JB and EE, and well, yeah. He still has 3 arbitration years ahead of him, so his price will only go up. Since he does have the stuff to be successful, even at the top of the rotation, I would let this year play out and see if he can rebound from a back and forth kind of year last year. He's another guy I would offer a similar contract to like Osuna and Sanchez, buying out arbitration for guaranteed money, maybe a FA year or two, and/or some team or vesting option(s) (forgot to mention those before).

 

Pillar: Believe it or not, I would be tempted to give him a contract to lock him in. He'll be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, so it could be a see what happens, then see what he does next year before talking about buying out the last of his arbitration and a FA year or two. My method for this madness is, he'll only be 28 come ST, so he should have a few good years left, so why not try to get them for the Jays at a team friendly, but fair contract, to one of the games best defensive CFs, a guy with some speed, who's hit 66 2B since taking over full time, and if he can be a bit more patient, might be able to draw some more walks, hit for a little more power, and get on base just a bit more. Career OBP of .303 isn't horrible, especially since he'll likely hit lower in the lineup, and his defense is more of what the team wants, and anything offensively is a bonus. Again, maybe a 3-4 year contract that's team friendly, maybe some options, maybe higher buyouts on the options, maybe signing bonuses paid in ST, so less income tax taken out, and if we get someone else who comes up through the farm, or signed, or traded for, if he's on a team friendly contract, much like anyone on one, trading them will be easier. If he starts to decline and is forced into one of the corner OF spots, or a team wants a CF, they can have a cheaper alternative, and maybe some options on the contract.

 

Donaldson. OK technically he's not "young" in the sense of this thread being he just turned 31, and is under contract this year, with one more year of arbitration, but I wouldn't mind giving him another 2-3 year deal, with vesting or team options, especially since the team will need a new "face of the franchise" with EE gone, and who knows with Bautista, but rumours are he's only looking for a one year deal. 3 years makes him 34. EE had a pretty good year at 33, and if the team rotates guys, like Donaldson and others, to have some off days, or DH duties, he could still be a strong bat at 33 maybe 34. At worse he gets a contract that might be movable in a trade, and the Jays can get something of value back. I don't personally seeing him dropping off a cliff in the next few years, but his all out play might be a problem, so a few days at DH, or a schedule day off might be good, and could always come off the bench if needed.

 

Travis. He's a bit hard to get a grasp on. He was almost a lock for ROY before shoulder issues ended his season, and kept him out early this season. Good thing is they found out the problem and fixed it. He enjoyed a solid year, and exceeded expectation of some, and made the trade look like a complete steal by the Jays. in only 101 games and 410 ABs he hit 28 2B, 1 3B, 11HR, 50 RBI, hit an even .300 with a .332 OBP, while doing a pretty good job in the field. Then the knee issue started which was originally a bone bruise, then it was a bone bruise with cartilage being stuck in between the knee joint. This could be chalked up to a freak accident, or making a double play where he had to pivot on the leg, causing a tear. Hell, I tore a meniscus getting into my car. So, I would give him at least this year to see what he can bring. We know he's capable of being a solid offensive player at his position, and play at least average, if not above average defense, and either play out the first year of arbitration, or like the above, try to buyout the years, with an option or two, signing bonuses, combination thereof.

 

Just from what I've seen during the past couple of years, the players' work ethic, their ages, they're the ones I'd try to lock in for the core, and try to keep their contracts low, but fair, I know hard balancing act at times. We know we have some players who for the next 2-3 seasons will make $20M a year, we have some guys who might be lost on waivers, and a few FA next year, so if the Jays can lock them in at inexpensive rates, they can then have more money to go out on the FA market, resign other players, take on money in trades, know what the players are going to make for the next few years, giving them an advantage. If someone comes up through the system, and winds up being a better player, or via trade, or via FA, the contracts could make them easier to trade since it wouldn't be a large sum of money. We've seen some contracts that are getting handed out, so if we can keep some of the young core players in the fold, at cheaper prices, why not? Worse case the players regress, or start to slow down a bit, but then it's not a huge investment (depending on what the figures are), especially when compared to some contracts that players get, especially later in their careers (right side of 30, or some case 35), and then start to fade, and are shells of themselves, who are all but unmovable, and you're stuck.

 

Overall, I think it's a gamble no matter how you look at it. Most of the younger players are either under contract (Lourdes Gurriel if he pans out) for a low amount, or aren't FA eligible yet for a few more years, so there isn't a real sense of urgency. Well, maybe with Donaldson, if the team isn't competitive, or he enters the final year of arbitration without talk of an extension, or even if they start talking, he might want to test the waters like EE and JB, so he's the only question mark. The others, even Stroman who is arbitration eligible now, are either this season removed, and will hit arbitration for their first time and either way, even Stroman is under team control for years to come. They could wait a year or two of arbitration before talking contract extensions, but if they can land them for team friendly deals, that won't handcuff the team, and the players take it, and it gives us some of, if not, the best years of those players careers, I say go for it. No one knows what will happen, so that's a gamble, but even if there's a regression, injury, player can't live up to what they've done before, and are average or worse, then it's not like signing a FA to a high AAV and stuck with them for a few years, where if the contracts are fair on both sides, we might get a nice core, for a relatively fair amount of money, all entering their primes, while allowing the team to have money to use elsewhere to try and sustain a potential contender for a few years, or at least take a step back, regroup with some acquisitions, and still have a number of players there, so you're shopping list is smaller. It's almost a Catch-22 since you might get a great deal with some of that players best years, for an inexpensive rate (relative to some of the market values), or at worse, it winds up like a Hinske deal, where the player is average, or subaverage, and you have to just eat the money, which isn't nearly as much as market value could be.

 

I'd say start talking to their reps and the players to get an idea, and take it from there. See what you have in house for replacements, or who you could get as a replacement without gutting the farm or having to overpay (well, more so) on the market.

 

Going year by year is another option, like some have said, because an injury could make that year's salary lesser, but it could rise, and then you could be stuck with trying to sign the player before or when they hit FA if you don't have another replacement. Or like I said before, give them a deal, with options on the last one or two option years, and/or FA year and see.

 

Just my opinions.

[TheHurl]

For the record...I threatened to close the thread because I have a lot of experience and I know when a thread is about to get out of hand/go in circles. That's why I'm an elitist cause I'm always right.

[Dick_Pole]

I hope that's only a temp ban, no way does he deserve a permanent ban for this. Carlos Danger is this board's CM Punk. Taking it to the man and breaking the fourth wall with his truthbombs. A mediocre poster who will forever have a cult following. Many YouTube videos will be made in his honour.

 

But if you really wanted to get under Hurl's skin, just join a fantasy league he is in and call your team the Drunken Injun Homos or something.

[BTS]

I hope that's only a temp ban, no way does he deserve a permanent ban for this. Carlos Danger is this board's CM Punk. Taking it to the man and breaking the fourth wall with his truthbombs. A mediocre poster who will forever have a cult following. Many YouTube videos will be made in his honour.

 

But if you really wanted to get under Hurl's skin, just join a fantasy league he is in and call your team the Drunken Injun Homos or something.

 

He’s back in a few hours.

[Dick_Pole]

Okay, i have some thoughts on this.

 

This is just my opinion, and might be shared by some, but some guys it might be a bit early to tell, and don't want to jump the gun on (see Hinske and Wells, though Wells, wasn't as bad, especially since AA somehow unloaded that contract) since you don't know if the player will regress or the league figure them out. I do like the idea of trying to get guys locked into fair, but team friendly deals, so it helps you know your budget with a bit more certainty years down the line, and if the player continues at their performance, wonderful, if they get even better, then it's a steal. On the other hand, you could wind up playing for a player who winds up injury plagued (sometimes that can't be helped, either it's just their body, or freak accidents, like JB getting his cleat stuck in the seem of the OF turn and straining his knee), or someone who doesn't live up to what they did before, or gets worse. But for sake of argument, and for the purposes of this thread, I'll throw out some names on who I would try to lock up, at least through arbitration, or a deal that includes team options for those years, so if the player doesn't have a good year, is injured, the team can decline the option, and either non-tender them, or go to arbitration/avoid it by signing them to a cheaper deal (Saunders this year received a very small, relative to arbitration, salary increase due to him being injured, and didn't have a leg to stand on to fight for a larger payday, and no that wasn't meant to be a s***** pun). So, here's my list:

 

Osuna. Relief pitchers are notoriously unstable, with the exception of a few, and they're usually closers, or set-up men. Roberto has been our closer the past two years (his first two in the bigs, and I believe the first time above A ball, correct me if I'm wrong). He seems to have had essentially a similar year to his first, minus some hiccups here and there, which, he's human, it's to be expected, but in the playoffs, he was even better than last year, going 9.0 IP giving up 0, as in zero, runs, walked no one, and struck out 10, better than last post season. He pitched about as many innings and games this year as last, so it's fair to compare them. Of course we don't know how he'll be next year, no one can predict how a player will be, but if he remains as is, he could get expensive in arbitration, and quickly, especially if he keeps racking up saves, and making big leaguers look foolish. He's also young, very young for his success, by MLB standards, (I think he'll be 23), and some guys don't break into the bigs until around 25 give or take. So, he still has some pretty good years ahead of him. Even if his velocity begins to drop, as it does with many pitchers just due to age, he seems to know how to pitch, already has two good off speed pitches in his slider, and change-up, so he could adjust a bit more easily, since he can locate the ball pretty well. He's only entering his 3rd year, and unless he gets sent down, which I don't see happening, he'll be eligible for arbitration next off season. They could try to go with a one-year deal, and talk extension, or if he has another solid year, or even better now that he's had more experience around, I wouldn't mind seeing them buyout his arbitration years, and maybe a year of FA, or just the arbitration years, and some team options. To keep the AAV lower, and maybe have him accept, offer larger buyouts on the options, or give him signing bonuses that would be paid, say first day of April of each year, when they're in Florida, so he doesn't lose income tax. Worse case, I would go one year of arbitration (hopefully avoiding it) to see what he does in 2017, and then maybe a 3-4 year deal with 1-2 options on it depending on the guaranteed years and money, and maybe some signing bonuses or larger buyouts than the typical $250-500K ones.

 

Sanchez. If Cot's is correct, this is his last year before he'll be eligible for arbitration in the offseason. So, similar deal with Osuna. I would let him play this season out, see how it goes, and if he pitches like he did this year, or better yet, improves on it, showing no signs of fatigue, or regression, or injury, make a similar offer where his arbitration years are bought out, with possibly a year or two of FA, either guaranteed or via option(s). He's still young, and if he can reproduce what he did last year, and better yet improve, he's a force to lead the rotation, and could get expensive, so offering up some guaranteed years, with some options, and/or higher buyouts, might be worth it.

 

Stroman. He qualified as a Super Two and will be eligible for arbitration this offseason with a projection of about $3-3.5M depending on your source. Keep in mind, many of them have predicted big contracts for JB and EE, and well, yeah. He still has 3 arbitration years ahead of him, so his price will only go up. Since he does have the stuff to be successful, even at the top of the rotation, I would let this year play out and see if he can rebound from a back and forth kind of year last year. He's another guy I would offer a similar contract to like Osuna and Sanchez, buying out arbitration for guaranteed money, maybe a FA year or two, and/or some team or vesting option(s) (forgot to mention those before).

 

Pillar: Believe it or not, I would be tempted to give him a contract to lock him in. He'll be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, so it could be a see what happens, then see what he does next year before talking about buying out the last of his arbitration and a FA year or two. My method for this madness is, he'll only be 28 come ST, so he should have a few good years left, so why not try to get them for the Jays at a team friendly, but fair contract, to one of the games best defensive CFs, a guy with some speed, who's hit 66 2B since taking over full time, and if he can be a bit more patient, might be able to draw some more walks, hit for a little more power, and get on base just a bit more. Career OBP of .303 isn't horrible, especially since he'll likely hit lower in the lineup, and his defense is more of what the team wants, and anything offensively is a bonus. Again, maybe a 3-4 year contract that's team friendly, maybe some options, maybe higher buyouts on the options, maybe signing bonuses paid in ST, so less income tax taken out, and if we get someone else who comes up through the farm, or signed, or traded for, if he's on a team friendly contract, much like anyone on one, trading them will be easier. If he starts to decline and is forced into one of the corner OF spots, or a team wants a CF, they can have a cheaper alternative, and maybe some options on the contract.

 

Donaldson. OK technically he's not "young" in the sense of this thread being he just turned 31, and is under contract this year, with one more year of arbitration, but I wouldn't mind giving him another 2-3 year deal, with vesting or team options, especially since the team will need a new "face of the franchise" with EE gone, and who knows with Bautista, but rumours are he's only looking for a one year deal. 3 years makes him 34. EE had a pretty good year at 33, and if the team rotates guys, like Donaldson and others, to have some off days, or DH duties, he could still be a strong bat at 33 maybe 34. At worse he gets a contract that might be movable in a trade, and the Jays can get something of value back. I don't personally seeing him dropping off a cliff in the next few years, but his all out play might be a problem, so a few days at DH, or a schedule day off might be good, and could always come off the bench if needed.

 

Travis. He's a bit hard to get a grasp on. He was almost a lock for ROY before shoulder issues ended his season, and kept him out early this season. Good thing is they found out the problem and fixed it. He enjoyed a solid year, and exceeded expectation of some, and made the trade look like a complete steal by the Jays. in only 101 games and 410 ABs he hit 28 2B, 1 3B, 11HR, 50 RBI, hit an even .300 with a .332 OBP, while doing a pretty good job in the field. Then the knee issue started which was originally a bone bruise, then it was a bone bruise with cartilage being stuck in between the knee joint. This could be chalked up to a freak accident, or making a double play where he had to pivot on the leg, causing a tear. Hell, I tore a meniscus getting into my car. So, I would give him at least this year to see what he can bring. We know he's capable of being a solid offensive player at his position, and play at least average, if not above average defense, and either play out the first year of arbitration, or like the above, try to buyout the years, with an option or two, signing bonuses, combination thereof.

 

Just from what I've seen during the past couple of years, the players' work ethic, their ages, they're the ones I'd try to lock in for the core, and try to keep their contracts low, but fair, I know hard balancing act at times. We know we have some players who for the next 2-3 seasons will make $20M a year, we have some guys who might be lost on waivers, and a few FA next year, so if the Jays can lock them in at inexpensive rates, they can then have more money to go out on the FA market, resign other players, take on money in trades, know what the players are going to make for the next few years, giving them an advantage. If someone comes up through the system, and winds up being a better player, or via trade, or via FA, the contracts could make them easier to trade since it wouldn't be a large sum of money. We've seen some contracts that are getting handed out, so if we can keep some of the young core players in the fold, at cheaper prices, why not? Worse case the players regress, or start to slow down a bit, but then it's not a huge investment (depending on what the figures are), especially when compared to some contracts that players get, especially later in their careers (right side of 30, or some case 35), and then start to fade, and are shells of themselves, who are all but unmovable, and you're stuck.

 

Overall, I think it's a gamble no matter how you look at it. Most of the younger players are either under contract (Lourdes Gurriel if he pans out) for a low amount, or aren't FA eligible yet for a few more years, so there isn't a real sense of urgency. Well, maybe with Donaldson, if the team isn't competitive, or he enters the final year of arbitration without talk of an extension, or even if they start talking, he might want to test the waters like EE and JB, so he's the only question mark. The others, even Stroman who is arbitration eligible now, are either this season removed, and will hit arbitration for their first time and either way, even Stroman is under team control for years to come. They could wait a year or two of arbitration before talking contract extensions, but if they can land them for team friendly deals, that won't handcuff the team, and the players take it, and it gives us some of, if not, the best years of those players careers, I say go for it. No one knows what will happen, so that's a gamble, but even if there's a regression, injury, player can't live up to what they've done before, and are average or worse, then it's not like signing a FA to a high AAV and stuck with them for a few years, where if the contracts are fair on both sides, we might get a nice core, for a relatively fair amount of money, all entering their primes, while allowing the team to have money to use elsewhere to try and sustain a potential contender for a few years, or at least take a step back, regroup with some acquisitions, and still have a number of players there, so you're shopping list is smaller. It's almost a Catch-22 since you might get a great deal with some of that players best years, for an inexpensive rate (relative to some of the market values), or at worse, it winds up like a Hinske deal, where the player is average, or subaverage, and you have to just eat the money, which isn't nearly as much as market value could be.

 

I'd say start talking to their reps and the players to get an idea, and take it from there. See what you have in house for replacements, or who you could get as a replacement without gutting the farm or having to overpay (well, more so) on the market.

 

Going year by year is another option, like some have said, because an injury could make that year's salary lesser, but it could rise, and then you could be stuck with trying to sign the player before or when they hit FA if you don't have another replacement. Or like I said before, give them a deal, with options on the last one or two option years, and/or FA year and see.

 

Just my opinions.

 

I'm waiting for one of you nerds to combine this, the Bautista 50/50 rant one and Carlos' rant into an epic one-post-per-page post.

[Dick_Pole]

He’s back in a few hours.

 

Hurray!!!

[TheHurl]

I hope that's only a temp ban, no way does he deserve a permanent ban for this. Carlos Danger is this board's CM Punk. Taking it to the man and breaking the fourth wall with his truthbombs. A mediocre poster who will forever have a cult following. Many YouTube videos will be made in his honour.

 

But if you really wanted to get under Hurl's skin, just join a fantasy league he is in and call your team the Drunken Injun Homos or something.

 

Honestly true. Him going off of me as a mod or person doesn't bother me at all and I welcome him back to the board (I was not the one who banned him)

[Boxcar]

Actually it is the opposite.. I am saying I am sticking to my guns, holding my ground and calling someone out. However, if that is all you get from it so be it. I believe in free thought and differing opinions on this board, no matter how f***ed up..

 

I support you, brother. When I'm a mod, this won't happen.

[Spanky99]

I support you, brother. When I'm a mod, this won't happen.

 

This won't happen.