General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Orgfiller]

Who has the higher upside, McKinney or Fisher?

 

I think it's Fisher too, but is one day off the end of the world to play another guy who was once also well touted?

[glory]

I don't care about days off here and there, but literally every game there is a different lineup because Montoyo wants to play everyone regardless of actual talent or upside. Even Vlad's lucky to get 5 games in a 7 game stretch. If you enjoy that, be my guest. I want to see the players with actual upside as much as possible.

[wk680]

Reality is vlad grew up rich and pampered, and has genes meant for backbreaking daily labour. Gonna be quite a challenge for him.

 

This is complete and utter ********! Yes, people of African descent have a somewhat greater propensity towards obesity in N. America (and likely rest of developed world). But there are also multiple confounding factors, such as these black people are disproportionately poor and we know poor people tend to eat high calorie / unhealthy diets. Take a look at Appalachia in the US (which is overwhelmingly white) where obesity rates are sky high. Jimbo - seriously stick to construction or whatever your specialty is. You are making a total f***ing fool of yourself on this one.

[saskjayfan]

I think it's Fisher too, but is one day off the end of the world to play another guy who was once also well touted?

 

It's his Birthday today. I'm pretty meh on Fisher, but come on. You can sit a guy on his Birthday!

[Ex Player]

Kay pitched a 6-inning gem tonight:

 

https://www.milb.com/gameday/bisons-vs-red-wings/2019/08/21/575924#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=575924

[wk680]

TIL being rich changes your genes

 

Isn’t Jim a purported PhD?

 

I think he said he has a MS in something or other but is related to a field that he has leveraged into his work in the construction industry - but he obviously knows JACK s*** about biochemistry in which I am the one with a PhD.

[gruber92]

I think it's Fisher too, but is one day off the end of the world to play another guy who was once also well touted?

 

It's a perfect storm for Fisher to assume Gurriel's playing time.

[5ToolPhenom]

Kay pitched a 6-inning gem tonight:

 

https://www.milb.com/gameday/bisons-vs-red-wings/2019/08/21/575924#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=575924

 

Nice, I think we'll see him up in September to start a few games.

[Jimcanuck]

This is complete and utter ********! Yes, people of African descent have a somewhat greater propensity towards obesity in N. America (and likely rest of developed world). But there are also multiple confounding factors, such as these black people are disproportionately poor and we know poor people tend to eat high calorie / unhealthy diets. Take a look at Appalachia in the US (which is overwhelmingly white) where obesity rates are sky high. Jimbo - seriously stick to construction or whatever your specialty is. You are making a total f***ing fool of yourself on this one.

 

Thanks for somewhat proving my point, but my posts have nothing to do with race. Any part of the world where people have been poor, eating marginal diets for hundreds of years, if you suddenly stick one of them in N.A. culture with a rich family will likely blow up to be obese.

 

The discussion was whether Vlad will get leaner, I'm saying with his family background and his childhood, not bloody likely. Which is why i voted 10+ lbs heavier in the Vlad spring training weight poll.

[Barkerfan23]

Kay pitched a 6-inning gem tonight:

 

https://www.milb.com/gameday/bisons-vs-red-wings/2019/08/21/575924#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=575924

 

Gem is a generous word there

[Ray]

I’ve had little issue with this front office thus far, but I will be extremely disappointed if they choose not to aggressively pursue good quality pitching this offseason. We’re at a point now where we can say the position player core is quite good. They’re also young enough that you can expect most of them to improve next year. I really hope they don’t waste a very valuable dirt cheap pre arbitration year of Vlad, Bo, Gurriel, Jansen etc, because this team might actually have an outside shot at a wildcard if they add good enough pitching.

 

Shoemaker and Borucki is a fine starting poin for a bottom of the rotation,, but guys like Thornton, Waguespack, Pannone should all be starting in the year at AAA next season. Our AAA rotation and SP depth will actually look quite strong.

 

Ideally, Gerrit Cole makes total sense, but at worst they need to add 2 guys from that middling pitcher free agency pool (Odorizzi, Roark, Miley, Wheeler etc).

[Pendleton]

Thanks for somewhat proving my point, but my posts have nothing to do with race. Any part of the world where people have been poor, eating marginal diets for hundreds of years, if you suddenly stick one of them in N.A. culture with a rich family will likely blow up to be obese.

 

The discussion was whether Vlad will get leaner, I'm saying with his family background and his childhood, not bloody likely. Which is why i voted 10+ lbs heavier in the Vlad spring training weight poll.

 

Lol f***ing anthropology lectures from Jim

[Barkerfan23]

Shoemaker and Borucki is a fine starting poin for a bottom of the rotation,, but guys like Thornton, Waguespack, Pannone should all be starting in the year at AAA next season. Our AAA rotation and SP depth will actually look quite strong.

 

You can have a lot of s***** depth. its pretty easy. Just acquire nothing but AAAA players from other organisations while giving away trade chips, then patting yourself on the back. I.e. Pannone has a FIP of 5.3 in over a 100 innings at the MLB level. Is that depth, you can at anytime find guys who will do that for you.

 

Depth is when you have above replacement talent, not below.

[BTS]

I’ve had little issue with this front office thus far, but I will be extremely disappointed if they choose not to aggressively pursue good quality pitching this offseason. We’re at a point now where we can say the position player core is quite good. They’re also young enough that you can expect most of them to improve next year. I really hope they don’t waste a very valuable dirt cheap pre arbitration year of Vlad, Bo, Gurriel, Jansen etc, because this team might actually have an outside shot at a wildcard if they add good enough pitching.

 

Shoemaker and Borucki is a fine starting poin for a bottom of the rotation,, but guys like Thornton, Waguespack, Pannone should all be starting in the year at AAA next season. Our AAA rotation and SP depth will actually look quite strong.

 

Ideally, Gerrit Cole makes total sense, but at worst they need to add 2 guys from that middling pitcher free agency pool (Odorizzi, Roark, Miley, Wheeler etc).

 

Bumgarner

Cole

Gibson

Hamels

Hill

Keuchel

Miley

Odorizzi

Porcello

Roark

Ryu

Strasbug (if opts out)

Wheeler

Wood

 

Are all interesting to at least some degree, and I think you can make the argument that no team should be more aggressive in the SP market than the Blue Jays. We have the payroll flexibility, the huge need, and a good young core of position players. We should be trying to land a 1/2 and at least another mid-rotation guy.

[Deadpool]

 

We definitely have to sign some UFAs though. Our payroll's going to be lower than TB/PIT.

 

a) UFA isn't a thing in baseball

 

Our position player core is quite good. 3rd, SS, 2nd and C are all locked down, we've got OFs who reasonable should be expected to be 2+ WAR guys across the board, and like 15 4th OFs who have potential to contribute, honestly we need to make a decision at 1B and that's about it.

[Spanky99]

Speaking of our youngins'....

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-part-of-young-talent-wave

[Bobthe4th]

a) UFA isn't a thing in baseball

 

Our position player core is quite good. 3rd, SS, 2nd and C are all locked down, we've got OFs who reasonable should be expected to be 2+ WAR guys across the board, and like 15 4th OFs who have potential to contribute, honestly we need to make a decision at 1B and that's about it.

 

That’s quite optimistic really. Our outfield is average at best. Biggio and Jansen may need another season of development before they can be considered really good players. There’s genuine questions over Vlad’s weight and effectiveness at 3B. Our current bench players like Drury and McKinney are s***.

 

Most of our players have more potential than current ability, and that’s going to be the excuse the front office uses to delay spending big bucks on pitching for another year IMO.

[Bobthe4th]

I’d love for us to reinvigorate the team by getting some top of the rotation talent. Can’t see it happening this offseason, but hope I’m wrong.

[glory]

Aside from free agents, there is also trades. We saw pitchers like Roark get traded for nothing in the winter simply because he was arb eligible and expensive. Sonny Gray was another. Ivan Nova is a 2 win SP who was traded for nothing because of his salary. There will be teams out there looking to shed salary, or move a player that is overpaid but still potentially useful. Not sure who would fall under that category this winter. Maybe the Pirates would trade Archer, though he's out with a shoulder issue now so maybe not. There will be pitchers out there on the trade market who a team doesn't want to pay. The Jays should be all over those.

 

Trading for vets is easy now. Doesn't require top prospects.

[Orgfiller]

That’s quite optimistic really. Our outfield is average at best. Biggio and Jansen may need another season of development before they can be considered really good players. There’s genuine questions over Vlad’s weight and effectiveness at 3B. Our current bench players like Drury and McKinney are s***.

 

Most of our players have more potential than current ability, and that’s going to be the excuse the front office uses to delay spending big bucks on pitching for another year IMO.

 

Danny Jansen is the 13th most valuable catcher in baseball despite underperforming both his projections and xWOBA significantly, he's now provided 2.3 WAR since he debuted last season in a season's worth of games (125 games). He really is quite good presently, and should only get better once his hitting regresses to the mean.

[Bobthe4th]

Danny Jansen is the 13th most valuable catcher in baseball despite underperforming both his projections and xWOBA significantly, he's now provided 2.3 WAR since he debuted last season in a season's worth of games (125 games). He really is quite good presently, and should only get better once his hitting regresses to the mean.

 

That’s exactly my point. Yes he’s going to be really good. He is not yet really good compared to the rest of the league.

[Orgfiller]

c) Without Galvis/Sogard, our position player WAR is 5.4 which is 4th worst in baseball, below CWS and ahead of BAL.

 

It is not quite good. It might be quite good if you project a substantial improvement for every single guy. I'm optimistic as well but the possibility exists that not all of them will make the improvements we expect.

 

I would definitely be actively trying to upgrade it. There are a lot of teams in the AL with multiple elite position players (HOU, BOS, NYY, MIN, OAK for example).

 

You can't just take away Galvis and Sogard, because they're being directly replaced by guys like Bichette and Biggio. If we're gonna do cherry picking like this then I'd point out that the Jays have the 14 highest position player WAR in August, with Bo playing full-time, ahead of the Rays, Phillies, Brewers and Cardinals.

[Spanky99]

That’s exactly my point. Yes he’s going to be really good. He is not yet really good compared to the rest of the league.

 

9 guys are better at the position?

[Orgfiller]

That’s exactly my point. Yes he’s going to be really good. He is not yet really good compared to the rest of the league.

 

He's a top 10 defensive catcher and projects by Steamer to be a top 10 offensive catcher from now until the end of the season, which is supported by his xWOBA which indicates he's closer to a league average hitter than what he's currently been. Danny Jansen is literally very good, right now, compared to the rest of the catchers who are the players we should be comparing him to.

[Ex Player]

Tonight we're gonna find out how Wagpack does against one of the better hitting teams in MLB

[Bobthe4th]

He's a top 10 defensive catcher and projects by Steamer to be a top 10 offensive catcher from now until the end of the season, which is supported by his xWOBA which indicates he's closer to a league average hitter than what he's currently been. Danny Jansen is literally very good, right now, compared to the rest of the catchers who are the players we should be comparing him to.

 

You’re making my point for me. All potential. Right now he’s the 17th best catcher by fWAR. That isn’t very good, that’s a bit above average.

 

No one is saying he won’t be a top catcher soon - but it’s optimistic to think that’ll be as soon as the beginning of next season.

[Captain Adama]

Danny Jansen is the 13th most valuable catcher in baseball despite underperforming both his projections and xWOBA significantly, he's now provided 2.3 WAR since he debuted last season in a season's worth of games (125 games). He really is quite good presently, and should only get better once his hitting regresses to the mean.

 

Since the start of July, Jansen's been hitting at a 119 wRC+ clip. He's fine.

[Orgfiller]

You can leave them in and we're still well below average though. I guess it depends on your definition of "quite good". I would disagree, personally.

 

If I had to bet, I think our position players will trend towards average pretty quickly but I'm not super confident in predicting they will be well above that.

 

Oh I wasn't really arguing against that, just that it's disingenuous to remove guys who played for our team and were replaced with better players and claim that without the former we've been a bottom 4 team. I agree, the core has some players which are/will be very good but it's not totally consolidated. We need someone like Teoscar to continue playing anywhere close to his second half performance, second half Grichuk to show up for more than half the season, Gurriel to continue a level close to this season's performance, or one of Fisher/McKinney to break out (or at least be average). Then there's Vlad's defense not being a tire fire, Biggio showing some more in-game power, and acquiring a replacement for Smoak.

 

The core has the potential to be very good but has a lot of question marks, at the very least we know that every team in baseball would kill to have Bo and Vlad, and we've got those two studs for the foreseeable future.

[Bobthe4th]

You can leave them in and we're still well below average though. I guess it depends on your definition of "quite good". I would disagree, personally.

 

If I had to bet, I think our position players will trend towards average pretty quickly but I'm not super confident in predicting they will be well above that.

 

It’s an exciting time to be a Jays fan, lots to be optimistic about. But before we all get carried away, a dose of realism is needed. We’re one injury to Gurriel away from having one of the worst outfields in the league. The young players (especially the infield) are still mainly potential. The pitching needs additions from external sources and internal development.

 

We don’t need a drastic rebuild, we just need to be patient.

[Orgfiller]

You’re making my point for me. All potential. Right now he’s the 17th best catcher by fWAR. That isn’t very good, that’s a bit above average.

 

No one is saying he won’t be a top catcher soon - but it’s optimistic to think that’ll be as soon as the beginning of next season.

 

A projection system claiming Jansen will be very good from now until the season isn't showing all potential, it means that it evaluates him as presently being very good.