General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[glory]

Can you message me when you have a new point or opinion to make? Thanks.

 

About what, Stroman or Grichuk? I've been pretty consistent with both opinions. Do you truly believe that bringing up Grichuk's deal is irrelevant to this discussion? The front office somehow overpaid a 2 win player in an era of baseball where no one gets overpaid anymore, and yet I can't compare that to them not having success (or possibly interest) in extending better players on the team? I can understand being tired of hearing how bad of a contract it is (and it is!), but it's not like I brought it up for no reason. It's pretty relevant when talking about other players who the team can extend in a similar fashion.

[5ToolPhenom]

Don't worry, it's a good point. The fact that Grichuk of all players was the guy they were focusing on extending is more than a little puzzling.

[Jonn]

I thought the Grichuk extension was a relatively safe move. Not one I would have preferred but not one that would suck. Now I'm kind of scared. He looks pretty f***ing bad. I am still waiting for him to turn into second half Grichuk.

[5ToolPhenom]

He'll undoubtedly run into a few long-balls down the stretch, but he's not the kinda guy I wanna see penciled into the starting lineup 2 years from now, let alone 5. And if he's gonna be regulated to the bench, he's not worth 50 mill.

[glory]

My fear is players that walk as infrequently as he does are less likely to maintain good offensive performance over a long period of time with his K%. I'm sure there are exceptions, but I don't think Grichuk is one of them. He's been pretty much a 100 wRC+ player from 2016-present, and unless he's killing it on defence, that's not a very good player overall. Solid/good player, sure, but not someone I'd prioritize for $50m. I'm sure he'll go on his summer hot streak and people will rejoice but between this and Morales, those are the longest contracts Atkins has given anyone in the bigs to this point (Happ was LaCava). That's a pretty bad track record, albeit in a small sample size.

 

The good news about the contract is it is front loaded, so the final 3 years I believe is $28m total. If he's still a 2 win player by year 3 of the deal then it won't be terrible.

[Spanky99]

Don't worry, it's a good point. The fact that Grichuk of all players was the guy they were focusing on extending is more than a little puzzling.

 

At 10 million, why?

[Spanky99]

You guys are f***ed, talk to me in October. The contract is peanuts, lol.

[Krylian]

You guys are f***ed, talk to me in October. The contract is peanuts, lol.

 

Agreed. When the Jays are WS champs in October we'll all look pretty stupid for questioning that extension.

[Spanky99]

Agreed. When the Jays are WS champs in October we'll all look pretty stupid for questioning that extension.

 

lol... do tell, smart guy? Stroman and Giles too?

[Spanky99]

Agreed. When the Jays are WS champs in October we'll all look pretty stupid for questioning that extension.

 

I expect nothing from you but tank, lol.

[Krylian]

lol... do tell, smart guy? Stroman and Giles too?

 

Too what? Are we not talking about Grichuk's extension?

[Spanky99]

Too what? Are we not talking about Grichuk's extension?

 

Yes... I'm asking on top of that, is it hard? Talk to me in October in concern of Grichuk.

[Krylian]

I expect nothing from you but tank, lol.

 

There's a time and place for everything. The time and place is here and now to consider maximizing any and all assets that you don't see as viable pieces for when you're a contender again.

 

Unless you overpay for Stroman he's not going to re-sign here to be part of this rebuild. As for Giles, he's been exceptional...and I wouldn't be opposed to keeping him, but a closer is not what you build around. Maximize his value while it's high...if you can get a strong return, but don't give him away.

[Spanky99]

Stop being facetious, tell us how you really feel, you're captain hindsight, I'd like to see some foresight K?

[Spanky99]

There's a time and place for everything. The time and place is here and now to consider maximizing any and all assets that you don't see as viable pieces for when you're a contender again.

 

Unless you overpay for Stroman he's not going to re-sign here to be part of this rebuild. As for Giles, he's been exceptional...and I wouldn't be opposed to keeping him, but a closer is not what you build around. Maximize his value while it's high...if you can get a strong return, but don't give him away.

 

So vanilla, what most say. lol

[Krylian]

Yes... I'm asking on top of that, is it hard? Talk to me in October in concern of Grichuk.

 

Do you s*** literal Blue Jays? You seem to be incapable of finding anything wrong with the Jays...ever. You should get a tattoo of that dog sitting in a burning building meme on your ass. "This is fine"

[Terminator]

[Spanky99]

Tell us a return you'd expect, is that a better question, vanilla? One for Stroman, 2nd for Giles?

[Krylian]

Outstanding. If Edwin keeps this up it'll be like trading him for the 1st overall pick. In Edwin we trust.

[Spanky99]

Do you s*** literal Blue Jays? You seem to be incapable of finding anything wrong with the Jays...ever. You should get a tattoo of that dog sitting in a burning building meme on your ass. "This is fine"

 

Answer.

[Spanky99]

Do you s*** literal Blue Jays? You seem to be incapable of finding anything wrong with the Jays...ever. You should get a tattoo of that dog sitting in a burning building meme on your ass. "This is fine"

 

His splits tell otherwise? You asked me... buddy boy!!

[Spanky99]

*tumbleweeds*

[BlueRocky]

Outstanding. If Edwin keeps this up it'll be like trading him for the 1st overall pick. In Edwin we trust.

 

It’s actually pretty impressive. I’m wondering if the Marlins would want him to secure their tank.

 

They’d have to give us a very good offer though, guys with that much negative impact on both WAR and run differential are very hard to come by (that actually has a MLB track record and not some dude pulled from independent league)

[Boxcar]

*tumbleweeds*

 

Yeah you really got him. Your incoherent homerism is incredibly convincing

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

You guys are f***ed, talk to me in October. The contract is peanuts, lol.

 

So I was thinking about this Statement and wondered how many peanuts that would be ?

 

So I went to Nuts.com and Ironically thought of you Spanky.

 

I looked up Roasted Salty Peanuts !!!

 

So 10 mill dollars gets us about 4.166 million

Pounds of Roasted Salty peanuts Year

 

Damn that is a pile of peanuts, probably

Enough to keep everyone in Toronto in peanuts or peanut butter for a year ummm 5 years!

 

And Damn Skippy errrr Spanky probably make more people Happy too !

 

Cheers !

 

Ps. They pay shipping on all orders over 59

Dollars too .... Whew !!!

[Spanky99]

So I was thinking about this Statement and wondered how many peanuts that would be ?

 

So I went to Nuts.com and Ironically thought of you Spanky.

 

I looked up Roasted Salty Peanuts !!!

 

So 10 mill dollars gets us about 4.166 million

Pounds of Roasted Salty peanuts Year

 

Damn that is a pile of peanuts, probably

Enough to keep everyone in Toronto in peanuts or peanut butter for a year ummm 5 years!

 

And Damn Skippy errrr Spanky probably make more people Happy too !

 

Cheers !

 

Ps. They pay shipping on all orders over 59

Dollars too .... Whew !!!

 

Now that's what I'm talking about, 4.166 peanuts, squirrels be damned.

[Ray]

Great article on Cavan Biggio: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-we-can-learn-about-cavan-biggio-so-far/

 

Basically compares Biggios 3 week O-Swing% to previous samples and predicts how it would translate over the full season, and his findings are pretty incredible:

 

There’s a pretty strong correlation (r = 0.79) between O-Swing% after three weeks and full season O-Swing%. Our line of best fit doesn’t explain all of the variation in full season O-Swing%, but it does a pretty good job. If we use this regression equation to predict Biggio’s full-season O-Swing%, we would expect him to swing at just 19.4% of pitches outside of the strike zone. That would rank seventh in baseball among qualified hitters. That’s incredible. Even a mean projection for Biggio’s O-Swing% puts him in the top-10 in baseball in the statistic.

 

Also, here's what's really gonna get people excited:

 

I wanted to find a hitter who had comparable plate discipline figures to Biggio. In a less-than-scientific method, I took a look at every qualified hitter who had an O-Swing% within 10 points of Biggio. Then I further whittled down the list by looking at hitters who had a Z-Swing% and a Swing% within 5 points of Biggio. That left me with two “comparable” options: Tommy Pham and Alex Bregman.

 

There you have it. Cavan Biggio has Alex Bregman and Tommy Pham upside.

[Boxcar]

Great article on Cavan Biggio: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-we-can-learn-about-cavan-biggio-so-far/

 

Basically compares Biggios 3 week O-Swing% to previous samples and predicts how it would translate over the full season, and his findings are pretty incredible:

 

 

 

Also, here's what's really gonna get people excited:

 

 

 

There you have it. Cavan Biggio has Alex Bregman and Tommy Pham upside.

 

I don't see Bregman. They are very different players.

 

If you're gonna go the perennial MVP route, Kris Bryant seems a lot better.

[Brownie19]

About what, Stroman or Grichuk? I've been pretty consistent with both opinions. Do you truly believe that bringing up Grichuk's deal is irrelevant to this discussion? The front office somehow overpaid a 2 win player in an era of baseball where no one gets overpaid anymore, and yet I can't compare that to them not having success (or possibly interest) in extending better players on the team? I can understand being tired of hearing how bad of a contract it is (and it is!), but it's not like I brought it up for no reason. It's pretty relevant when talking about other players who the team can extend in a similar fashion.

 

Ahhhh, here goes. You have been very consistent about your view on Grichuk's extension. THAT'S THE POINT. You've been repeating it in multiple threads for what feels like 4 or 5 weeks now. "You know, this FO is s*** - I mean just look at that stupid Grichuk extension".

 

FWIW, Grichuk has average 2.175 WAR per year over the past 4. I'll round that to 2.2 (because it helps my argument). There were 117 offensive players in baseball last year who posted 2.2 WAR or higher. That's 3.8 per team (which I'll round to 4 to even things out) and thus 5ToolPhenom's suggestion you don't want him in your lineup 2 years from now when he's in the middle of his prime is pretty insane. To suggest a '2 win' player is overpaid at $10M per season is pretty questionable as is, but to suggest no one of that talent level gets paid that much anymore is simply incorrect. He's a quick list of some 2019 FA signees who are still relatively young and have averaged about 2 WAR in previous years (ie, have some decent track record):

 

Moustakas - $10M

W.Ramos - $8.45M

DJ LeMahieu - $12M

J. Scoop - $8.5M

 

If you want to question the length of the deal - be my guest. We have to assume the FO thought there was a decent chance that once comfortable in TO and possibly with some maturity and improvement (as he enters his prime years) that instead of a 2 WAR player - he could be a 3 WAR player (much like Steven Piscotty was last year). There were just 68 offensive players who posted 3 WAR or higher last year (2.26 per team). That player, locked in at $10M per season is incredible value. To add to that - given his base running, solid defense and versatility - he comes with a pretty high floor.

 

It's not difficult to see how the team would evaluate the potential outcomes and the probabilities of each outcome and land on the decision to extend him. Will it work out? Maybe - maybe not. If the math suggests this extension works out (or provides excess value) 80% of the time, with a 40% change it produces a significant amount of excess value....is it fair to s*** on the FO when the outcome unfortunately falls into the 20% chance? I say it's not. Likewise, if the numbers suggest there's a 25% change this extension works out and a 5% change it produces a significant amount of excess value....is it fair to praise them when it works out? I say it's not.

 

I mean if you want to s*** on their projection and evaluation process - by all means do that; however, you (and I) probably know next to nothing about it, so how the F do you form an opinion?

 

In general, we all need to stop pretending we understand the evaluations, projections and probabilities. But one thing is for sure - we should stop reemphasizing our opinion over and over again (for 4 or 5 weeks) like it's the only answer, when in fact, we have no f***ing idea.

[Terminator]

If Biggio can exceed expectations that might be one of the few things to go better than expected this year and will take some of the sting off of this disastrous season.

 

Other realistic things that can help:

-Gurriel establishing himself as a solid corner OF who can play the INF in a pinch

-Vlad becoming a star

-Grichuk pulling his head out of his ass (that extension looks awful)

-Jansen also pulling his head out of his ass

-Thornton establishing himself as a solid mid-rotation starter

-Phelps regaining his form and showing he can be a setup man for next year

-Kingham showing something

-Borucki getting healthy and showing something heading in to next year

 

Not all of that will happen but it's just a list of realistic things that could happen. The more of those that go right the closer we will be to being competitive next year.