MLB 2019 Draft

[Krylian]

When is MLB finally going to allow the trading of draft picks.

[Boxcar]

Oh god, I really hope we avoid the yearly thing of mock drafts pegging us to pick a certain player, being wrong as always, and then having people who know nothing about any of the players throwing tantrums.

[Deadpool]

When is MLB finally going to allow the trading of draft picks.

 

Hopefully never? 'cause you know that we'd wind up with a GM like J.P. Ricciardi again who would trade a 1st, 2nd and 4th round pick for a .5 WAR bench player.

[Krylian]

Hopefully never? 'cause you know that we'd wind up with a GM like J.P. Ricciardi again who would trade a 1st, 2nd and 4th round pick for a .5 WAR bench player.

 

True.

 

Or we could end up with a GM that would be the guy receiving the 1st, 2nd, and 4th for a .5 WAR bench player.

[metafour]

Hopefully never? 'cause you know that we'd wind up with a GM like J.P. Ricciardi again who would trade a 1st, 2nd and 4th round pick for a .5 WAR bench player.

 

Those GM's don't even exist anymore.

[Pendleton]

This kid would be part of the 2020 draft class but still pretty neat -

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/ohio-high-school-baseball-player-hits-for-home-run-cycle-in-remarkable-10-rbi-performance/

[Pendleton]

https://twitter.com/JordanStrack/status/1117947333268987904?s=19

[Spanky99]

This kid would be part of the 2020 draft class but still pretty neat -

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/ohio-high-school-baseball-player-hits-for-home-run-cycle-in-remarkable-10-rbi-performance/

 

That's so cool.

 

 

Ftfy

[Brownie19]

This kid would be part of the 2020 draft class but still pretty neat -

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/ohio-high-school-baseball-player-hits-for-home-run-cycle-in-remarkable-10-rbi-performance/

 

Do all high school kids treat solo home runs like they are walk offs?

[Spanky99]

Do all high school kids treat solo home runs like they are walk offs?

 

Yes, same as travel ball as well.

[BlueRocky]

Been looking through the realistic outfield prospects we could nab at #11.

 

https://d1baseball.com/position-power-rankings/week-6-power-rankings-outfield-2/

 

Hunter Bishop really broke through into a class of his own in the college scene. At least for this season no other outfielder comes close to his numbers.

 

You’ll have to buy into his adjustments this year though if you take him as a top 10 pick.. his OPS went from .847 to .759 to 1.358 from 2017 to 2019, while cutting his K rate almost by half and doubling his walk rate. Chances are he’s having a flukey unbelievable season or his adjustments are real. But either way, Bishop seems out of reach for our pick. Can’t pinpoint where, but likely will be in the top 8.

 

JJ Bleday seems like a legit corner outfield bat with an above average arm, just below the Bishop tier and maybe about the same tier as Kameron Misner (though his stock as fallen slightly). Certainly his batting numbers are more consistent than Kameron Misner, but Misner has a higher ceiling—potential CF, above average run tool, can steal bases. In contrast, Bledday is a pure bat and still has untapped raw power. Bledday (6’3, 205 L/L) is slashing .361./.462/.762, 1.224 with 17 HR in 38 games and walks equal to strikeouts. He also has a track record of hitting in both the SEC and Cape Cod League.

 

This seems like a potentially good pick for us if we decide not to go for another middle infield guy. There’s also some intriguing prep arms but I’m a bit cringy about going that route.. and we could really use a real bluechip outfield prospect.

 

Last year we front-loaded on position prospects early rounds and heavy-backloaded pitching prospects past round 2. This is not a bad approach and they could do it again this year. There’s just so much volatility with arms especially prep ones.

 

Edit: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1&type=0&pageitems=10000000000000&pagenum=0

fangraphs just updated their draft board. Welp.

Edited April 21, 2019 by BlueRocky

[Brownie19]

BlueRocky - you've really up'd your posting game man. You've been awesome over the past 3-4 weeks. Kudos.

[Spanky99]

BlueRocky - you've really up'd your posting game man. You've been awesome over the past 3-4 weeks. Kudos.

 

He's great.

[BlueRocky]

Hey guys, I really appreciate it.

 

I’m just bored on my days off and spend time looking up numbers and watching Jays prospects.

Thought I’d share some tidbits. And if even one person finds them interesting I guess it’s worth sharing.

[Spanky99]

Hey guys, I really appreciate it.

 

I’m just bored on my days off and spend time looking up numbers and watching Jays prospects.

Thought I’d share some tidbits. And if even one person finds them interesting I guess it’s worth sharing.

 

Well played, I do the same at times, lol.

[Brownie19]

Hey guys, I really appreciate it.

 

I’m just bored on my days off and spend time looking up numbers and watching Jays prospects.

Thought I’d share some tidbits. And if even one person finds them interesting I guess it’s worth sharing.

 

I love that type of thing - keep sharing!

[BlueRocky]

Jennifer : Loved your top 10 mock! Who would be your pick for the Blue Jays in that scenario?

12:30

 

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t have a ton of dope on their preferences there, but the leading candidates would be the four referenced in the article (Jung, Busch, Carroll, Thompson) as top 10 candidates that didn’t make the mock. I think they are leaning college and Jung would be my best guess.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-5-1-19/

 

Fangraphs draft board: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1&type=0&pageitems=10000000000000&pagenum=0

 

Personal note: JJ Bledday’s stock has risen considerably since my last post. Not sure he’ll fall outside top 10. Position player pool is strong in this draft, pitching pool has depth but no run away winners or elite talent like Casey Mize last year.

 

Nick Lodolo, Alek Manoah, and Zach Thompson are the top college arms and prep side it’s between Matt Allan, Brennan Malone, Daniel Espino. Jackson Rutledge & Carter Stewart are juco picks.

 

If OF is the target, with Bledday & Bishop off the board, Corbin Carroll wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize: HS lefty (L/L), elite contact hitter, regarded as one of the top pure bats in the class but some question marks if he can hit for power. Projected MLB center fielder with possibly double plus speed. Only concern is his frame.. 5-10 160lbs.

 

Not ruling out another middle infielder like Bryson Stott, Will Holland, Logan Davidson.. but honestly they don’t intrigue me that much. Perhaps because the bar has been set quite high with our infield prospects.

 

OF Kameron Misner is toolsy and has a lot of upside, could’ve had a better year though. 3B Josh Jung also seems a bit underrated, great college numbers and chance to stick at third. Possibly prospect fatigue.

Edited May 1, 2019 by BlueRocky

[Brownie19]

Jesus - fangraphs has Will Holland at 111, listed as a 2nd baseman.

[Slade]

In McDaniels top 10 mock he pretty much made it seem like everyone likes Bledday so I doubt he falls to us unless he significantly drops off this month.

 

If McDaniels is right and they go the college route I can see Jung. I've been watching a lot of video of Brett Baty who looks like he's going to have big power with a lofty left handed swing but he's a HS guy.

 

I don't see us grabbing any HS arms in the first round, maybe a JuCo guy. Still got to like Jackson Rutledge.

[jays4life19]

Jesus - fangraphs has Will Holland at 111, listed as a 2nd baseman.

 

Holland has had a really bad year both at the plate and with the glove. He has the tools I guess to stick at SS but he derps on the routine play and has not hit at all his junior year.

 

I doubt he goes in the top 2 rounds

[BlueRocky]

In McDaniels top 10 mock he pretty much made it seem like everyone likes Bledday so I doubt he falls to us unless he significantly drops off this month.

 

If McDaniels is right and they go the college route I can see Jung. I've been watching a lot of video of Brett Baty who looks like he's going to have big power with a lofty left handed swing but he's a HS guy.

 

I don't see us grabbing any HS arms in the first round, maybe a JuCo guy. Still got to like Jackson Rutledge.

 

We could go down the list and mention guys like Jack Leiter, J.J. Goss, and Hunter Barco but I also have doubts we will grab a prep arm with our 1st rounder. 2nd round though.. would love it if we somehow figure out the signability issues like we did with Adam Kloffenstein.

 

Baty is intriguing, also hearing guys like Kody Hoese with some helium. This front office really likes their power bats.

 

College arm I’m a bit iffy on Alek Manoah despite the success. 6-7 270lbs at 21 is a very THICC boy, unless we’re really hopping on that train of embracing thicc-ness.

 

We might actually have a chance to land Hunter Bishop though, which could turn out to be a serious blue chip lottery ticket. We have a couple teams ahead of 11 that loves drafting arms, there’s chances for a couple bats to slide down. Sometimes you gotta swing for the fences?

Edited May 1, 2019 by BlueRocky

[Brownie19]

Holland has had a really bad year both at the plate and with the glove. He has the tools I guess to stick at SS but he derps on the routine play and has not hit at all his junior year.

 

I doubt he goes in the top 2 rounds

 

Dude - I FAP'd over his videos on page 3. What a let down. Jung and Carrol sound interesting.

[metafour]

We are kind of in a blah position because unless something weird happens, we are more or less picking first among essentially the 3rd tier of prospects. It looks like a zero chance of Bleday being there, and a slim chance of Bishop being there (and even that is prob. a stretch given his overall athleticism + power + production this year). Corbin Carroll looks like the highest "rated" prospect who could potentially get pushed down to us. Jung, Thompson, and Busch are all completely underwhelming picks IMO. In that scenario I would rather just do what we did last year and "reach" for a HS bat that we like who will sign for a discount. Brett Baty is old as s*** but I'd rather take him than Jung who's bat is still largely a product of hype (his power doesn't seem to actually show up). This draft looked a lot better for us back when Misner was looking like a legit top 11 pick because it assured us one of those guys being there.

[Todd]

Number one thing the blue jays should do with first five draft picks is draft all pitchers.

When after that outfielders. Then everything else.

[metafour]

Number one thing the blue jays should do with first five draft picks is draft all pitchers.

When after that outfielders. Then everything else.

 

Brilliant idea Todd - just use all of your top picks on the least predictable prospects (pitchers). You should definitely look to fill needs with MLB draft picks. Thanks for the sweet post man.

[jays4life19]

Dude - I FAP'd over his videos on page 3. What a let down. Jung and Carrol sound interesting.

 

Yeah that was my bad. Got a little ahead of myself there

[Ray]

Weird s*** happens all the time in the draft. High ranked players always fall on draft day for one reason or another. Last season, Singer, Libertore, and Gorman were all available when we picked. Chances are, some top ranked guys fall to us.

 

I'm liking the idea of a Brett Baty a lot. He seems to be the best high school hitter. He's projected to go in the 20-30 range, but he's good enough that you can warrant him at #11. Go underslot for a good player, and then use the savings to go overslot in the later rouds. Basically the same strategy we adapted with Groshans/Kloffenstein.

[Todd]

For the record pitching is a need. So is the outfield. But pitching is always number one. very thin

[BlueRocky]

Weird s*** happens all the time in the draft. High ranked players always fall on draft day for one reason or another. Last season, Singer, Libertore, and Gorman were all available when we picked. Chances are, some top ranked guys fall to us.

 

I'm liking the idea of a Brett Baty a lot. He seems to be the best high school hitter. He's projected to go in the 20-30 range, but he's good enough that you can warrant him at #11. Go underslot for a good player, and then use the savings to go overslot in the later rouds. Basically the same strategy we adapted with Groshans/Kloffenstein.

 

From Baseball America:

 

Projected Draft pick No. 24

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 218 | B-T: L-R

Commit/Drafted: Texas

 

Scouting Report: If there’s a player who could rival Rece Hinds for the most raw power in the 2018 class, Baty might be the best bet. The corner infielder from Texas brings plenty of pop to the table with a physical, 6-foot-3, 218-pound frame and quick, uppercut swing from the left side. Baty hit the ball hard more consistently than most prep hitters throughout the summer and routinely stands out during batting practice with power to all fields. Like many big, power-hitting high school infielders, defense will be the question with Baty. He’s a more natural fit for first base and will need to improve his glovework, exchange and throwing accuracy to continue at third base. Baty is committed to Texas.

 

Baty might get crushed on some teams’ internal models because of his age, but he’s got 70-grade raw power, has improved his defensive work and has a polished hit tool.

 

From MLB Pipeline:

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 30 | Arm: 60 | Field: 40 | Overall: 50

 

Baty has several parallels to Josh Jung, a fellow Texas prep product who's now a third baseman at Texas Tech and expected to be one of the first college players selected in June. They're built similarly, they rank among the best all-around hitters in their respective high school and college classes and they still have to convince evaluators that they can stick at the hot corner. While Baty doesn't have Jung's college track record and is a lesser defender, his bat still could land him in the first round.

 

Baty possesses some of the best raw power in the 2019 Draft, the product of bat speed, strength and loft in his left-handed swing. He's also more of an advanced hitter than just a pure masher. A Texas recruit who would be eligible for the 2021 Draft as a sophomore, he makes repeated hard contact, isn't fooled by breaking pitches and doesn't get caught selling out for power.

 

Though he clocks well below-average running times, Baty is a better athlete than his lack of speed might indicate. He played basketball at Lake Travis High (Austin) and could remain a third baseman if he improves his agility and maintains the conditioning on his big frame. There's no question about his arm because he has registered fastballs up to 92 mph off the mound.

 

https://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/brett-baty/HhJDM_FVEeW-8KA2nzwbTA/gendersport/baseball-stats.htm

 

3B @ Lake Travis HS, in 26 games he slashed .639/.738/1.361, OPS 2.099

15 HR, 2 triples, 3 doubles, 46 hits, 54 runs, 40 RBI in 107 PA

31 BB, 6 K

 

Varsity baseball must’ve been fun for him

Edited May 2, 2019 by BlueRocky

[Pendleton]

Number one thing the blue jays should do with first five draft picks is draft all pitchers.

When after that outfielders. Then everything else.

 

Pitching prospects will break your heart. Build a great core of young hitters and then trade for established arms.