Is the 2017 team better, worse or equivalent to the 2016 team

[Grant77]

Realistically though all the old position players didn't have great years last year, so they've not got as much to live up to, and there is a good chance some bounce back.

 

Martin and Tulo - both had terrible starts with the bat.

Bautista - 2 major injuries, worst season in years.

Pearce - bit part player.

Morales - 0.7 WAR.

Carrera - 0.7 WAR

Upton - 1.2 WAR

 

Pitching wise:

 

relievers are so variable even if Grilli is bad, someone else will step up (Barnes?).

Starters - yes Happ and Estrada may struggle to repeat last year. But Liriano wasn't very good overall, and a year of extra experience is a very good thing for Stroman and Sanchez. Sanchez with no inning restrictions too.

 

Is that realistic? When I see old players get injured and have poor years, it doesn't exactly fill me with optimism. Morales is what he is, a mediocre DH. I don't see any reason to expect more from him.

[Bobthe4th]

Is that realistic? When I see old players get injured and have poor years, it doesn't exactly fill me with optimism. Morales is what he is, a mediocre DH. I don't see any reason to expect more from him.

 

Yes, I think it's realistic to expect those 7 older position players to have a good chance of collectively producing a higher WAR than they did last year.

[Bobthe4th]

2016:

 

Tulowitzki = 2.8 WAR

Pearce = 2 WAR (in 85 games)

Martin = 1.9 WAR

Bautista = 1.4 WAR (in 116 games)

Upton = 1.2 WAR

Morales = 0.7 WAR.

Carrera = 0.7 WAR

 

Total = 10.7 WAR roughly an average of 1.5 each.

 

Tulo, Pearce, Martin and Bautista should easily reach that average even if they miss games through injury and/or their skills decline from being a year older. Upton and Morales could, but probably won't. Carrera is very unlikely to.

[Grant77]

Yes, I think it's realistic to expect those 7 older position players to have a good chance of collectively producing a higher WAR than they did last year.

 

Steamer projects those 7 players for 10.2 WAR after they put up 10.7 WAR in 2016, just for reference. I'm not disputing the possibility that we could be better. I expect bounce backs from Tulo and Bautista in particular. If we're being realistic though, more of the same is a pretty strong possibility.

[Bobthe4th]

Steamer projects those 7 players for 10.2 WAR after they put up 10.7 WAR in 2016, just for reference. I'm not disputing the possibility that we could be better. I expect bounce backs from Tulo and Bautista in particular. If we're being realistic though, more of the same is a pretty strong possibility.

 

Sure, I doubt there will be a major swing either way. I think it's more likely they provide over (prob around 12 WAR in total), but you could easily see say Tulo and Bautista miss the majority of the season, and the total be more like 7-8 WAR.

 

FWIW Steamer notoriously undervalues players - for example it's got Pearce predicted for 1.3 WAR in 91 games.

[glory]

They are probably in the 82-85 win talent range. I see it playing out similarly to how depth charts has the standings. Boston, Houston, and Cleveland winning their respective divisions, and the Jays being right in the thick of the WC race with a few other teams.

 

Other than the AAA outfield, the Jays don't seem to have any depth in the minors. That will make health very important to them, especially in the rotation. Obviously if they lose Donaldson for any extended period of time they are screwed regardless.

[G-Snarls]

I would put money on Bautista and Martin both posting a higher WAR in 2017

[Daniel Labude]

I think we will be better. The offense will probably be similar (less HRs but same runs overall I hope), but the pitching I think will be much better. Liriano can match or exceed Dickey's output and I believe Sanchez and Stroman will both be even better this season

[G-Snarls]

I think we will be better. The offense will probably be similar (less HRs but same runs overall I hope), but the pitching I think will be much better. Liriano can match or exceed Dickey's output and I believe Sanchez and Stroman will both be even better this season

 

Stroman certainly could be better, in fact I'd expect him to be

 

And Liriano better than Dickey yes

 

Hard to imagine Sanchez being any better though... dude had a 143 ERA+ and finished 7th in Cy Young voting

 

And it's hard to see BOTH Happ and Estrada keeping it up too, though that would be awesome

Edited February 3, 2017 by G-Snarls

[Bobthe4th]

Stroman certainly could be better, in fact I'd expect him to be

 

And Liriano better than Dickey yes

 

Hard to imagine Sanchez being any better though... dude had a 143 ERA+ and finished 7th in Cy Young voting

 

And it's hard to see BOTH Happ and Estrada keeping it up too, though that would be awesome

 

Was that a fluke though, or is he genuinely now turning into a young ace? Because if it's the latter, a season with no innings restrictions = no skipped starts = potentially higher WAR.

[G-Snarls]

Was that a fluke though, or is he genuinely now turning into a young ace? Because if it's the latter, a season with no innings restrictions = no skipped starts = potentially higher WAR.

 

I think he might be this good, yes. And true, could put up a little more WAR if he makes 4-5 more starts.

[G-Snarls]

I tell yah, having Sanchez get this good reduces the pain of missing Syndergaard at least a bit (cause the Mets were getting one or the other)

 

If Sanchez had become nothing more than a high velocity high walk rate middle reliever it would sting a lot more

[Daniel Labude]

Stroman certainly could be better, in fact I'd expect him to be

 

And Liriano better than Dickey yes

 

Hard to imagine Sanchez being any better though... dude had a 143 ERA+ and finished 7th in Cy Young voting

 

And it's hard to see BOTH Happ and Estrada keeping it up too, though that would be awesome

 

I think this year with Sanchez he can definitely get better, but it comes down to his strikeout rate. If he can increase that he could probably lower his ERA and increase his WAR...ultimately being in high contention for the CY Young.

 

With Stroman, he needs to lower his mistake rate (is that even a thing lol) and start to refine his arsenal. He was all over the place most of last season (using about 7 diff pitches), which led to the erradic command of his pitches (mistakes giving up runs). If he stays with the pitches he was using at the end of last season he could have a dramatic jump and be a similar type of pitcher that Sanchez was last year.

 

Estrada was pitching the majority of the year with a back problem. If he is closer to 100% this year I would assume he could be even better than how he pitched in the 2nd half of the year.

 

There is some room for improvment at almost all of our starting spots...should be a fun first month to see what types of adjustments everyone has made

[wk680]

I tell yah, having Sanchez get this good reduces the pain of missing Syndergaard at least a bit (cause the Mets were getting one or the other)

 

If Sanchez had become nothing more than a high velocity high walk rate middle reliever it would sting a lot more

 

Yes this has been my thinking as well. It's early but both look primed to have good careers moving forward. And the Jays did get 4 decent years out of Dickey (824 ip, 6.4 fWAR).

 

When I think of Sanchez, three things come to mind (other than being the guy they kept over Syndergaard): born on July 1st (what a story it would be if he were to pitch a no hitter on his birthday!); excellent performance in game 162 in 2016 against Price; 3 game suspension for hitting the Royals player in Aug 2015 game after they had been throwing at our guys all game and hit Tulo the prior half inning.

[BTS]

Yes this has been my thinking as well. It's early but both look primed to have good careers moving forward. And the Jays did get 4 decent years out of Dickey (824 ip, 6.4 fWAR).

 

When I think of Sanchez, three things come to mind (other than being the guy they kept over Syndergaard): born on July 1st (what a story it would be if he were to pitch a no hitter on his birthday!); excellent performance in game 162 in 2016 against Price; 3 game suspension for hitting the Royals player in Aug 2015 game after they had been throwing at our guys all game and hit Tulo the prior half inning.

 

My lasting memory of Dickey will be his sweaty look of exasperation as a 450-ft dinger sails over his head.

[G-Snarls]

My lasting memory of Dickey will be his sweaty look of exasperation as a 450-ft dinger sails over his head.

 

You mean like this?

 

http://i13.photobucket.com/albums/a285/lozocara/radickey.gif

 

Well that happened so many times is the thing

Edited February 3, 2017 by G-Snarls

[G-Snarls]

Say, do we play the Braves this year? Would love to face him

[TholesWeirdEye]

Say, do we play the Braves this year? Would love to face him

 

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=toronto+blue+jays+2017+schedule

[G-Snarls]

Damn though, there were stretches when he made good hitters look horrible

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/images/8/4/2/178058842/051316_beltre_knee_med_87r24w8d.gif

[G-Snarls]

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=toronto+blue+jays+2017+schedule

 

Thanks

 

LOL

 

f***er

[wk680]

My lasting memory of Dickey will be his sweaty look of exasperation as a 450-ft dinger sails over his head.

 

It's easy to look back in hindsight and bash Anthopoulus over that Dickey trade all you want, and by extension be a Dickey hater. BUT at the time Syndergaard was just a young prospect with no guarantee of being a major leaguer, let alone a top line starter. People need to get over it, but I suspect the only way some Jays fans will ever do so is if the Jays own Syndergaard in the World Series. Hey maybe 2017 will be the year it happens.....

[KingKat]

Four games in May against the Braves. Just to annoy us further, Dickey will probably pitch his best game of the season and shut out the Jays.

 

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/schedule/sortable.jsp?c_id=tor&year=2017

[G-Snarls]

Four games in May against the Braves. Just to annoy us further, Dickey will probably pitch his best game of the season and shut out the Jays.

 

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/schedule/sortable.jsp?c_id=tor&year=2017

 

Home/away series 2 games each I see

 

Will be curious to see if he ends up pitching in Toronto or not. He'll get a pretty mixed reaction even though it should be a mostly positive one.

[Captain Adama]

It's easy to look back in hindsight and bash Anthopoulus over that Dickey trade all you want, and by extension be a Dickey hater. BUT at the time Syndergaard was just a young prospect with no guarantee of being a major leaguer, let alone a top line starter. People need to get over it, but I suspect the only way some Jays fans will ever do so is if the Jays own Syndergaard in the World Series. Hey maybe 2017 will be the year it happens.....

 

I hate when people say we bashed it in hindsight. We f***ing ripped that deal a new one immediately when it happened. Jesus Christ.

[G-Snarls]

Also... D'Arnaud kinda suxx

[wk680]

I hate when people say we bashed it in hindsight. We f***ing ripped that deal a new one immediately when it happened. Jesus Christ.

 

Right, and you of course are the number 1 butt-hurt Jays fan over that deal, seeing as how you had that crystal ball telling you Syndergaard, who was only 20 years old and had not pitched an inning above A ball at the time, was a lock to become a dominant MLBer. Get over it and look into getting a new avatar pic while you are at it. Or maybe consider becoming a Mets fan.......

[jays_fever]

Right, and you of course are the number 1 butt-hurt Jays fan over that deal, seeing as how you had that crystal ball telling you Syndergaard, who was only 20 years old and had not pitched an inning above A ball at the time, was a lock to become a dominant MLBer. Get over it and look into getting a new avatar pic while you are at it. Or maybe consider becoming a Mets fan.......

 

To be fair he was Noah's number 1 fan way for years.

 

Everyone had to talk him down from the ledge IRC

[wk680]

To be fair he was Noah's number 1 fan way for years.

 

Everyone had to talk him down from the ledge IRC

 

Thanks for the info. I was not following this board until recently so obviously don't know the backstory. BUT like I posted before, life goes on and you need to cheer for the guys that are on your team, not pine away over the prospects that got away.

 

ETA: and as discussed above, at least we have Sanchez (knock on wood for continued success), and being born on the July 1st, he is like an honorary Canadian. Yeah I know what many of you are thinking, piss off with the nationalism nonsense.

[burlingtonbandit]

I hate when people say we bashed it in hindsight. We f***ing ripped that deal a new one immediately when it happened. Jesus Christ.

 

I remember people hating the deal thinking it was d'Arnaud straight up. Then when Synder was announced as a 2nd piece people lost their s***.

 

The only people saying well they're just "prospects" were the idiots in the MSM.

[wk680]

I remember people hating the deal thinking it was d'Arnaud straight up. Then when Synder was announced as a 2nd piece people lost their s***.

 

The only people saying well they're just "prospects" were the idiots in the MSM.

 

So with your awesome talent evaluation skills and wisdom, how is it none of you are running an MLB front office!?