Trade for Andrew McCutchen (NJH #7)

[Dr. Dinger]

Projected surplus value on Quintana's contract is an absurd $100M.

[Dr. Dinger]

 

This is what I was replying to. I didn't notice you had edited your post by then. They'll still be playing their respective age 30 and 28 seasons, it's not a huge difference and again accounting for the fact that Quintana is more likely to miss an extended period of time.

 

Disagree. Cutch is already battling knee problems.

[Orgfiller]

He's boring AF to me but could provide 15+ WAR on a bargain basement contract. Tons of surplus value, whereas Cutch's value completely tanked. They want Quintana, clearly, but they aren't getting him with Glasnow alone and they won't trade Meadows. They're also cash strapped. Trading Cutch in a 3-way for Quintana makes sense, but clearly they would need to add a piece.

 

You realize that as recently as August of this year Baseball America had Glasnow ranked 4 spots higher than Meadows right? I don't see why you have this certainty (or a less pretentious word if you'd prefer) that they wouldn't trade Meadows but would trade the guy who the industry ranks as the more valuable prospect. Also, McCutchen's value is certainly not tanked, he projects as a 3+ win player with potential for more and is being paid to produce like a sub 2 win player. His contract is still very valuable, even if it's for a shorter term than Quintana and not as cheap.

[Dr. Dinger]

You realize that as recently as August of this year Baseball America had Glasnow ranked 4 spots higher than Meadows right? I don't see why you have this certainty (or a less pretentious word if you'd prefer) that they wouldn't trade Meadows but would trade the guy who the industry ranks as the more valuable prospect. Also, McCutchen's value is certainly not tanked, he projects as a 3+ win player with potential for more and is being paid to produce like a sub 2 win player. His contract is still very valuable, even if it's for a shorter term than Quintana and not as cheap.

 

Even if I believe you and treat McCutchen as a 3 WAR player, Quintana is worth $90M more in surplus value.

 

[TABLE=width: 641]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]$/WAR[/TD]

[TD]AM Proj War[/TD]

[TD]AM WAR Value[/TD]

[TD]JQ Proj WAR[/TD]

[TD]JQ WAR Value[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2017[/TD]

[TD]$9,000,000[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]$27,000,000[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$36,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2018[/TD]

[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]$28,500,000[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$38,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2019[/TD]

[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2020[/TD]

[TD]$10,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$42,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total value[/TD]

[TD]$55,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$156,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total salary[/TD]

[TD]$28,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$35,800,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Surplus value[/TD]

[TD]$27,000,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$120,200,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[crmr]

Even if I believe you and treat McCutchen as a 3 WAR player, Quintana is worth $90M more in surplus value.

 

[TABLE=width: 641]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]$/WAR[/TD]

[TD]AM Proj War[/TD]

[TD]AM WAR Value[/TD]

[TD]JQ Proj WAR[/TD]

[TD]JQ WAR Value[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2017[/TD]

[TD]$9,000,000[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]$27,000,000[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$36,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2018[/TD]

[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]$28,500,000[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$38,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2019[/TD]

[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2020[/TD]

[TD]$10,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$42,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total value[/TD]

[TD]$55,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$156,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total salary[/TD]

[TD]$28,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$35,800,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Surplus value[/TD]

[TD]$27,000,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$120,200,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

What about the other guy in the deal?

[Dr. Dinger]

What about the other guy in the deal?

 

Surplus value of pitching prospects ranked #1-10 in baseball is on the order of $70M, $40M for pitchers ranked 11-25.

 

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

[crmr]

Surplus value of pitching prospects ranked #1-10 in baseball is on the order of $70M, $40M for pitchers ranked 11-25.

 

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

 

Oh great, thanks.

 

Also, how much should we age Quintana? I assume that makes a difference in the later years

[Dr. Dinger]

Oh great, thanks.

 

Also, how much should we age Quintana? I assume that makes a difference in the later years

 

You can't really fade him for decline over the course of this contract, he's not old enough for that. A 4 WAR projection for him this year might even be conservative.

[Orgfiller]

Oh great, thanks.

 

Also, how much should we age Quintana? I assume that makes a difference in the later years

 

Well he's still presumedly in his prime, shouldn't really expect any significant decline throughout the duration of the contract. I think Dinger's projections in that regard were fair and it accounts for any uptics that he may have during his prime 28 and 29 years along with any small decline in his age 30 and 31 seasons.

[crmr]

You can't really fade him for decline over the course of this contract, he's not old enough for that. A 4 WAR projection for him this year might even be conservative.

 

Oh ok. I didn't know. I just saw this chart http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Pitcher_Curves_Starters.png which suggested he's entering his prime aging time.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Even if I believe you and treat McCutchen as a 3 WAR player, Quintana is worth $90M more in surplus value.

 

[TABLE=width: 641]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]$/WAR[/TD]

[TD]AM Proj War[/TD]

[TD]AM WAR Value[/TD]

[TD]JQ Proj WAR[/TD]

[TD]JQ WAR Value[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2017[/TD]

[TD]$9,000,000[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]$27,000,000[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$36,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2018[/TD]

[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]$28,500,000[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$38,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2019[/TD]

[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2020[/TD]

[TD]$10,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$42,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total value[/TD]

[TD]$55,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$156,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total salary[/TD]

[TD]$28,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$35,800,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Surplus value[/TD]

[TD]$27,000,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$120,200,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Are these $/WAR projections present value?

[Dr. Dinger]

Well he's still presumedly in his prime, shouldn't really expect any significant decline throughout the duration of the contract. I think Dinger's projections in that regard were fair and it accounts for any uptics that he may have during his prime 28 and 29 years along with any small decline in his age 30 and 31 seasons.

 

I'll also just point out that even if McCutchen bounces back to a 6 WAR player for the next two seasons, Quintana's value is superior. If Cutch bounces back to 6 WAR and Quintana loses a whole year to injury, surplus value would be approximately even.

 

[TABLE=width: 641]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]$/WAR[/TD]

[TD]AM Proj War[/TD]

[TD]AM WAR Value[/TD]

[TD]JQ Proj WAR[/TD]

[TD]JQ WAR Value[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2017[/TD]

[TD]$9,000,000[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]$54,000,000[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$36,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2018[/TD]

[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]$57,000,000[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$38,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2019[/TD]

[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2020[/TD]

[TD]$10,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$42,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total value[/TD]

[TD]$111,000,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$156,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total salary[/TD]

[TD]$28,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$35,800,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Surplus value[/TD]

[TD]$82,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$120,200,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[Dr. Dinger]

Are these $/WAR projections present value?

 

2017 is present value then $500,000 inflation per year. This may seem inconsequential now, but it makes Quintana's contract that much more valuable 3-4 years from now.

[crmr]

I'll also just point on that even if McCutchen bounces back to a 6 WAR player for the next two seasons, Quintana's value is superior. If Cutch bounces back to 6 WAR and Quintana loses a whole year to injury, surplus value would be approximately even.

 

[TABLE=width: 641]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]$/WAR[/TD]

[TD]AM Proj War[/TD]

[TD]AM WAR Value[/TD]

[TD]JQ Proj WAR[/TD]

[TD]JQ WAR Value[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2017[/TD]

[TD]$9,000,000[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]$54,000,000[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$36,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2018[/TD]

[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]$57,000,000[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$38,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2019[/TD]

[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2020[/TD]

[TD]$10,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$42,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total value[/TD]

[TD]$111,000,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$156,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total salary[/TD]

[TD]$28,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$35,800,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Surplus value[/TD]

[TD]$82,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$120,200,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

I'm confused, does this inlude the approximately $60 mil in value from the prospect?

[reedjohnsonfan]

2017 is present value then $500,000 inflation per year.

 

I mean, what's the present value of 1 WAR in 2020? Is it 10,500,000? Or should we make some adjustment?

[Orgfiller]

Are these $/WAR projections present value?

 

Probably his own estimate of where the value of a win is at now compared to our most recent estimator of the same (about 8-8.5 a year or two ago?). What's crazy is that his estimate might even be on the low end, but it's probably fair and I like that he accounts for inflation in the coming years.

[Dr. Dinger]

I'm confused, does this inlude the approximately $60 mil in value from the prospect?

 

This is strictly a comparison between the value of the contracts of the two MLBers.

[Dr. Dinger]

I mean, what's the present value of 1 WAR in 2020? Is it 10,500,000? Or should we make some adjustment?

 

We can only guess, really, but based on recent history, the value of 1 WAR inflates by about half a million per year. Just a few years ago we were making these calculations based on $6M or $7M per WAR. This offseason, $9M seems to be the typical figure.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Probably his own estimate of where the value of a win is at now compared to our most recent estimator of the same (about 8-8.5 a year or two ago?). What's crazy is that his estimate might even be on the low end, but it's probably fair and I like that he accounts for inflation in the coming years.

 

Yeah it is crazy, I agree it's probably fair, but I think he misinterpreted my question. Maybe this is a bit more clear:

 

If 1 WAR is worth 10,500,000 in 2020, what is it worth today? Or is does that amount take into account discounting in future years?

[crmr]

This is strictly a comparison between the value of the contracts of the two MLBers.

 

Oh alright. So there seem to be some fairly realistic scenarios where this deal would be awful for Pittsburgh, especially if you discount Quintana's value in the outer years.

 

Anyway, fun discussion

[Orgfiller]

I'll also just point out that even if McCutchen bounces back to a 6 WAR player for the next two seasons, Quintana's value is superior. If Cutch bounces back to 6 WAR and Quintana loses a whole year to injury, surplus value would be approximately even.

 

[TABLE=width: 641]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]$/WAR[/TD]

[TD]AM Proj War[/TD]

[TD]AM WAR Value[/TD]

[TD]JQ Proj WAR[/TD]

[TD]JQ WAR Value[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2017[/TD]

[TD]$9,000,000[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]$54,000,000[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$36,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2018[/TD]

[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]$57,000,000[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$38,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2019[/TD]

[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2020[/TD]

[TD]$10,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$42,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total value[/TD]

[TD]$111,000,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$156,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total salary[/TD]

[TD]$28,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$35,800,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Surplus value[/TD]

[TD]$82,500,000[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$120,200,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Oh for sure, I think Quintana is clearly the more valuable asset right now, no argument from me there. However I think that Glasnow would be a bit too much to ask for and for that reason believe that the Pirates would reject your proposed 3-way deal. I don't have a problem with your valuation of Quintana at all, I think you're either slightly underestimating McCutchen's value on the market or Glasnow's but in either case I'm probably overstating how much the discrepancy is.

[Dr. Dinger]

Oh alright. So there seem to be some fairly realistic scenarios where this deal would be awful for Pittsburgh, especially if you discount Quintana's value in the outer years.

 

Anyway, fun discussion

 

Actually what that table shows is that even if Cutch posts 12 WAR over the next two seasons, the additional surplus value of Quintana's contract is still worth a pitching prospect ranked 11-25 in baseball.

[crmr]

Actually what that table shows is that even if Cutch posts 12 WAR over the next two seasons, the additional surplus value of Quintana's contract is still worth a pitching prospect ranked 11-25 in baseball.

 

I don't follow prospects, I just used baseball america's midseason list which has Glasnow 6th with some of the guys infront of him likely to lose prospect status so I used a below average value in your 1-10 bucket.

[Orgfiller]

Yeah it is crazy, I agree it's probably fair, but I think he misinterpreted my question. Maybe this is a bit more clear:

 

If 1 WAR is worth 10,500,000 in 2020, what is it worth today? Or is does that amount take into account discounting in future years?

 

I don't think I understand your confusion then. Do you understand what he means by inflation? By his estimate 1 win today is worth $9 million, and in 2020 it will be roughly $10.5 million accounting for the $0.5 million inflation per year. No matter how the cost of a win changes, Quintana's contract value will not, thus we can project the surplus value by taking the difference of his projected performance value versus his actual contract value.

[Dr. Dinger]

I don't follow prospects, I just used baseball america's midseason list which has Glasnow 6th with some of the guys infront of him likely to lose prospect status so I used a below average value in your 1-10 bucket.

 

Since you are interested

 

Hitters ranked 75-100 (Alford) = $20M

Pitchers ranked 75-100 (SRF) = $15.6M

 

Total value of Jays offer = ~$35.6M compared to projected surplus value of $27M for two years of Cutch at 3 WAR per.

 

So perhaps you have undervalued our prospects a touch. It's not as crazy as you might think.

[crmr]

Since you are interested

 

Hitters ranked 75-100 (Alford) = $20M

Pitchers ranked 75-100 (SRF) = $15.6M

 

Total value of Jays offer = ~$35.6M compared to projected surplus value of $27M for two years of Cutch at 3 WAR per.

 

I never thought about the Jays much, as I think Pittsburgh is the one who don't do that deal.

 

Lots of extra things to think about when you actually pull the trigger obviously, such as Mccutchen upside, win curve position, war timing and so on. I'll have to look more into these prospect valuations... I'm more interested now, thx

[Dr. Dinger]

$35.6M for our two prospects plus $40-70M for Glasnow is right in the ballpark of Quintana's expected value.

[Dr. Dinger]

I'll have to look more into these prospect valuations... I'm more interested now, thx

 

I dunno how accurate they are. These are averages, but you have to keep in mind prospects carry considerable risk, especially pitchers.

[Dr. Dinger]

I never thought about the Jays much, as I think Pittsburgh is the one who don't do that deal.

 

Pittsburgh is so strapped for cash that they gave us prospects just to take Liriano's contract. Quintana would be considerable cost savings for them even over the next two years.

[reedjohnsonfan]

I don't think I understand your confusion then. Do you understand what he means by inflation? By his estimate 1 win today is worth $9 million, and in 2020 it will be roughly $10.5 million accounting for the $0.5 million inflation per year. No matter how the cost of a win changes, Quintana's contract value will not, thus we can project the surplus value by taking the difference of his projected performance value versus his actual contract value.

 

I know what inflation is, but my question is:

 

how much do you think 1 WAR will cost in 2020?

how much do you think 1 WAR (projected) in 2020 costs today?

 

Those are two separate values. Which one is he estimating to be 10,500,000?