Sign Bud Norris (NJH #6)

[Laika]

This will be the sixth of many offseason threads where I'll take a stance and advocate for the Blue Jays to make (or not make) a specific move.

I may not actually think Toronto should make every move, but I'll lay out the case for it in order to generate discussion.

 

Toronto should sign Bud Norris

 

Bud Norris has an ugly name, an ugly face, an ugly personality, and ugly numbers over the last two years.

 

Toronto should sign him anyway.

 

From 2010 to 2014 Bud Norris was a pretty consistent league average starting pitcher. His WAR values oscillated between 1.4 and 2.7. He started 145 in that span and his xFIP, FIP , and ERA were all between 4.00 and 4.21.

 

He was in the same class of durability and talent in that timeframe as pitchers like Jason Vargas, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Lohse, and Mike Leake. Those four signed contracts in free agency ranging from $30M to $80M between 2013 and 2016. Bud Norris' value as a pitcher during this timeframe is evident from the 2013 trade to the Orioles that netted the Astros Josh Hader - an extremely talented left-handed SP prospect who has since ascended to top ~30 overall prospect status.

 

But when Bud Norris reached free agency in 2016 all he could land was a 2.5M contract with the Atlanta Braves. This is because Bud Norris was a nightmare in 2015 - his final arbitration year. He was so bad in 2015 that he got released mid-season and finished his year as a reliever for the Padres. He was also an abomination of a pitcher in 2016; he started the year as a serviceable swingman for the Braves but after getting dealt to the Dodgers he threw up a 6.54 ERA and earned getting designated for assignment.

 

All told in 2015 and 2016 Norris pitched 196 innings (30 starts and 43 relief appearances) of 5.79 ERA and 4.63 FIP baseball. That's replacement level pitching.

 

The thing with Bud Norris is, there's no obvious reason why he went from good to terrible.

 

In his heyday, Norris' heater could tickle 95 and 96, sitting in the 92/93 range. In 2015 and 2016 he had the same velocity as ever (see image at bottom). His K and BB rates weren't much different than they've ever been. His GB rates in the two bad years were actually career highs. His pitch mix seems similar to his historical mix. He was in the strike zone as much as he used to be, he got swings and misses at basically the same rate.... the guy just gave up runs. His BABIP in both years was a bit higher than his career mark, his LOB% was lower than ever, and his HR/FB% was at career high percentages.

 

If you're familiar with the concept of "the signal and the noise", Bud Norris' "struggles" in these last two years look a lot like noise to me. The signal, in a holistic sense, seems to indicate that Bud Norris' talent level is the same as it was when he was a league average starting pitcher.

 

CLEARLY he would be available for free agency peanuts. He sucked butts on old-school paper in 2015 and then signed early for just $2.5M. Since he doubled down on the butt-sucking in 2016, there's no reason for him to cost any more than he got last year.

 

Two things that Toronto could use are viable relief pitching and SP depth. Conceivably, Bud Norris could fill both roles, starting the year in the pen with the ability to chew up some innings if needed.

 

My vision and personal hope is that they sign Norris and just tell him that he's a reliever. The fastball is good (at least in terms of velocity) and the slider, his bread and butter pitch, got good results even in his crummy 2016.

 

It's hard not to think of Joe Blanton, and to be honest that's probably why I want Norris so bad. Yes this isn't great reasoning, but humour while I tell you what you already know about Blanton.

 

Joe was a pretty solid, slightly above average SP up until 2013 when he was all of a sudden terrible. He pitched a few games in the minors in 2014 and then announced his retirement. But a change of heart brought him back to the sport as a reliever in 2015 and he has been dynamite, doing it all with a real good slider, a normal fastball, command, and veteran guile.

 

Norris might not have Blanton's command and guile but his stuff is certainly as good as if not better than Joe's. Guys who are starting pitchers in the big leagues for a long time are REALLY good at pitching, and we should almost expect them to be good relief pitchers even when they stop being good at starting (not that I think Bud Norris has necessarily lost his ability to start.)

 

Small sample size, but Norris may have given a tease of his RP capabilities in 2015 with San Diego, where he pitched 16.1 innings all in short relief. He had an 11.34 K/9 in that stint with a 2.65 FIP. He's also shown in the last two years that when he's used solely in relief his fastball can sit at 95+, touching 97+. Pretty good!

 

Anyway, too many words for a dirtbag like Bud Norris (remember his public comments calling Jon Singleton dumb and saying that foreign players should conform to baseball's white culture...).

 

It's pretty simple. Not much to lose here and a lot possibly to be gained.

 

Sign this piece of s*** already.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/9492_P_FA_20160918.png

[Joshtowers]

Warning original poster has hard on

[z3r0s]

love these NJH. Thanks.

[RealAccountant]

Warning original poster has hard on

 

At least he can get it up

 

Sadly not everyone can do the same

[SAAviour]

If we sign him we can't face him, and he sucks. I vote no to this one, but thanks for the post.

[Dr. Dinger]

Ew

 

Trade for Cutch

[Governator]

Ew

 

Trade for Cutch

 

Can we put him in our BP too?

[jaysblue]

Bud Norris looks like Adam Devine so I approve.

 

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Bud is not the wiser choice for us!!!

 

Moving right along .... Next!!!

[wamco]

Bud is no demamp!