OFFICIAL Potential Three-Way Tiebreaker Announced

[fatcowxlive]

Unless of course the people who made that decision calculated such a low percentage chance of winning in Toronto they figured that was the best way. If I was one of the players I'd be pissed. It's a slap in the face to them.

 

It doesn't matter, you still roll the dice. The only other thing i can think of is you get to line up your best starter with one additional days rest vs. the team's 2nd/3rd best starter. But then again that doesn't make much sense either because if we decide to throw up Stroman in the tie breaker then in the WC we can roll with Happ or Estrada who are just as good or for the Tigers they're pitching Verlander tomorrow, Fulmer Monday so Tuesday would be Zimmerman/Norris and they might pitch Verlander for the Baltimore game on 4 days rest (before throwing up Fulmer for a start in the WC). I have no idea how they chose this route, it doesn't look positive anywhere

[fatcowxlive]

This is the team that asked for Aaron Sanchez for Dan Duquette and in the process:

 

1) tied themselves to Dan Duquette lmao

2) created a vacuum that Toronto filled with the highly competent Shapiro crew

 

Baltimore is so dumb

 

Gallardo-Miley-Ubaldo lmao

 

Won't it be just fitting if Ubaldo's sudden magic decided to disappear for the most crucial game of the season?

[Laika]

The only other thing i can think of is you get to line up your best starter with one additional days rest vs. the team's 2nd/3rd best starter.

 

They could do that anyway with the two road games... just line up Gausman (their best SP) for game #2 / the WC game if they win game #1.

[fatcowxlive]

Probably having the gate for one game mattered too. What's an extra sold out game worth $10M ?

 

What? They ruined their chances of getting a WC spot, let alone reaching the ALDS (which is 2 games at increased prices almost guaranteed). Business wise this blows too lmao

[Dick_Pole]

It doesn't matter, you still roll the dice. The only other thing i can think of is you get to line up your best starter with one additional days rest vs. the team's 2nd/3rd best starter. But then again that doesn't make much sense either because if we decide to throw up Stroman in the tie breaker then in the WC we can roll with Happ or Estrada who are just as good or for the Tigers they're pitching Verlander tomorrow, Fulmer Monday so Tuesday would be Zimmerman/Norris and they might pitch Verlander for the Baltimore game on 4 days rest (before throwing up Fulmer for a start in the WC). I have no idea how they chose this route, it doesn't look positive anywhere

 

TLDR conclusion is:

 

O's front office is either very stupid, or they don't believe their team can win in Toronto.

 

It's just so funny. I hope Buck Showalter played a hand in this. Manager of the year really adding value.

[RealAccountant]

Is there an precedent at all about a 4 way tie

[havok24]

Are the Orioles f***ing that stupid? lol

[Dick_Pole]

It's almost like they think they are in the NFL. Hmmm....two road games, or one home game with the first round of playoffs being a bye. Easy choice!

 

No Buck, it doesn't work like that.

[RealAccountant]

What? They ruined their chances of getting a WC spot, let alone reaching the ALDS (which is 2 games at increased prices almost guaranteed). Business wise this blows too lmao

 

I don't think so. The Delta of winning probablity is 15 percent let's say. 75 percent you win 1 of 2 on the road 60 percent you win on the road.

 

So is that 15 percent worth $10 Mil?

 

10 Mil is a lot of money to a team like the Orioles

[fatcowxlive]

They could do that anyway with the two road games... just line up Gausman (their best SP) for game #2 / the WC game if they win game #1.

 

True, even then lets say they wanted to go with that, teams aren't afraid to start their best on short rest, the entire post season will be running on 3 or 4 starters anyways. Whatever, I prefer us just winning tomorrow while the O's and Tigers win tomorrow (but lose to the Indians) so we have nothing to worry about and 2 teams bash their heads in to face us

[STLJaysFan]

6-4 A's bottom 6th.

[RealAccountant]

Shouldn't MLB flip flop the AL NL wild card games. Move it to Wed old

[CJ-Freeway]

Khris Davis!!! 7-4 A's!!!

[RealAccountant]

Lmfao mariner tie it

[bones10]

If we win tomorrow we don't have to deal with this horse s*** do we....

[jaysfan2014]

Well Seattle's done. Now Detroit has to beat Atlanta and Cleveland to force a tiebreak with either Toronto or Baltimore (or both), depending what happens tomorrow. Detroit cannot afford a choke job with Verlander and Fullmer going the next two games.

 

Games of interest in the AL:

Toronto (Sanchez) vs. Boston (Price on a limited pitch count to tune up for the postseason)

Detroit (Verlander) vs. Atlanta (Teheran--FINAL game ever at Turner Field)

Orioles (Gausman) vs. New York (Cessa)

Cleveland (Tomlin) vs. KC (Kennedy)

 

Monday

Cleveland (TBA--likely Merritt or Plutko) vs. Detroit(Fullmer)

 

Detroit really can't afford tiebreakers--they're looking at Boyd/Norris/Zimmermann(who was awful tonight) having to pitch tiebreak and potential wild card games vs. the Jays and/or Orioles.

[GodDonaldson]

Well Seattle's done. Now Detroit has to beat Atlanta and Cleveland to force a tiebreak with either Toronto or Baltimore (or both), depending what happens tomorrow. Detroit cannot afford a choke job with Verlander and Fullmer going the next two games.

 

Games of interest in the AL:

Toronto (Sanchez) vs. Boston (Price on a limited pitch count to tune up for the postseason)

Detroit (Verlander) vs. Atlanta (Teheran--FINAL game ever at Turner Field)

Orioles (Gausman) vs. New York (Cessa)

Cleveland (Tomlin) vs. KC (Kennedy)

 

Monday

Cleveland (TBA--likely Merritt or Plutko) vs. Detroit(Fullmer)

 

Detroit really can't afford tiebreakers--they're looking at Boyd/Norris/Zimmermann(who was awful tonight) having to pitch tiebreak and potential wild card games vs. the Jays and/or Orioles.

 

I think Baltimore is likely to beat the Yanks.. Gausman has 2-1 record and 0.80 ERA in 5 games against the Yanks this season. He also has 1.32 ERA at the Yankee Stadium too. Cessa is 0-3 and 4.18 ERA in September. However, he recorded a win in his only appearance against the O's this season. (And that was at the Yankee Stadium as well)

For Detroit and Atlanta game, I really don't know who's gonna win. I know Verlander has been great this season, and Teheran is also decent compared to what his record shows. Also, the Braves will not back down since it is their final game at Turner Field, and it is expected to be a full house)

 

I also don't know who's gonna win in Toronto Boston game.. I don't know if we are going to face David Price who's been great against the Blue Jays, or other David Price who struggled against the Yankees. Although he is on limited pitch count, we need to knock him out early, but it is not going to be easy. Also, the Red Sox will try to win a game not only to secure their home field advantage against the Indians, but also for David Ortiz

Sanchez has 5.19 ERA in three games against the Red Sox this season, which is not that great.. However, he won his only outing at Fenway Park this year.

 

Let's keep our hope and see what happens tomorrow

[JoeCarter]

Blue Jays to host the 1st game of a potential three-way tiebreaker

 

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the first game of a potential three-way tiebreaker Tuesday while the Baltimore Orioles have opted to play one home game Wednesday instead of playing two potential road games to earn a wild-card berth, MLB officials told USA TODAY Sports.

 

The officials spoke to USA TODAY Sports on the condition of anonymity since MLB has not publicly announced the teams’ decisions if there’s a three-way tiebreaker between the Blue Jays, Orioles and Detroit Tigers.

 

The Blue Jays, designated as Team A in the tie-breaker procedure, informed MLB they would host the first game on Tuesday. If they lose, would play the following day in Baltimore against the Orioles.

 

The Orioles, designated as Team B, decided to host a one-game sudden-elimination game Wednesday at Camden Yards against the loser of the Blue Jays and Tigers’ game. They had the option of having two chances, both on the road, to reach the wild-card game. They instead opted to play the one home game, an Orioles executive confirmed to USA TODAY Sports.

 

The Tigers now will have the two chances to win one, each on the road.

 

The two winners would play Thursday for the American League wild card berth. If the Blue Jays were in the wild-card game, it would be played in Toronto. If the Orioles play the Tigers, the game would be in Baltimore.

 

The winner of the wild-card game would then play the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Tex., on Friday in the best-of-five division series.

 

While the Blue Jays and Orioles play their final games Sunday, the Tigers must make up a rainout against the Cleveland Indians on Monday in Detroit, pushing the tiebreaker process back a day.

 

The Orioles, who lost 7-3 Saturday to the New York Yankees, are 88-73 with a half-game lead over the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays, 87-73, who were playing the Boston Red Sox on Saturday night, have a half-game lead over the Tigers. The Tigers, 86-73, who are playing the Atlanta Braves, still have a makeup game Monday against the Cleveland Indians to determine their fate in the wild-card race. The Blue Jays and Orioles play their final games Sunday.

 

Source

 

Edit: Here's a TL;DR:

 

First game, Tuesday: Tigers @ Blue Jays

Second game, Wednesday: Loser of Tuesday's game @ Orioles

 

Wild Card game, Thursday: Winner of Wednesday's game @ Winner of Tuesday's game.

 

So the two ways Jays can make the ALDS if we tie is we either:

 

a) Beat the Tigers at home Tuesday and then beat the Tigers/Orioles at home to get entry into ALDS

Lose to the Tigers at home Tuesday, beat the Orioles at Camden Yards, then beat the Tigers at Comerica to get entry into ALDS

 

Not accurate. Read the article again: If Jays are in the WC game on Thursday, it's in Toronto, no matter who we play.

[King]

You literally get 2 chances. I don't know what's the negative thing about that? Like how confident (or stupid) do you have to be to forgo a second chance, just so you can play at home?

 

Actually as I'm typing this out i just thought about how stupid this is. Lets say they win their home game, they still have to play ON THE ROAD in the only game that counts, the true wild card game Thursday. Had they took their chances, they could have beat us at home then HOSTED the WC game. This is SO stupid.

This is truly mind boggling

[JoeCarter]

The answer to how dumb this was on BAL's part (assuming the 3 teams are evenly-matched skill-wise) depends on how important they believe home field advantage to be. If there is ZERO advantage to home field, then BAL's decision decreased their odds of making the WC game from 75% to 50% and decreased their odds of advancing to the ALDS from 37.5% to 25%. In other words, catastrophically stupid. There is, however, an inflection point at which their decision makes sense: if Baltimore believes a home team will beat an evenly-skilled away team at least ~61.8% of the time, their decision makes sense. Would like someone to check my math, though. There are other variables too, like who their lined-up starters are, the effects of potentially playing 3 games in 3 days in dif cities, and of course non-gameplay considerations like how much $ they earn from home vs. away games, etc. I personally don't think home field is worth anywhere close to that figure, and playoff stats suggest as much (though sample size way too small.) Edited October 2, 2016 by JoeCarter

[Laika]

The answer to how dumb this was on BAL's part (assuming the 3 teams are evenly-matched skill-wise) depends on how important they believe home field advantage to be. If there is ZERO advantage to home field, then BAL's decision decreased their odds of making the WC game from 75% to 50% and decreased their odds of advancing to the ALDS from 37.5% to 25%. In other words, catastrophically stupid. There is, however, an inflection point at which their decision makes sense: if Baltimore believes a home team will beat an evenly-skilled away team at least ~61.8% of the time, their decision makes sense. Would like someone to check my math, though. There are other variables too, like who their lined-up starters are, the effects of potentially playing 3 games in 3 days in dif cities, and of course non-gameplay considerations like how much $ they earn from home vs. away games, etc. I personally don't think home field is worth anywhere close to that figure, and playoff stats suggest as much (though sample size way too small.)

 

I think you found the most important factor here. Money!

 

You're right that .618 expected home winning percentage would be the inflection point but the MLB wide home team win % year to year tends to be between 53% and 56% so it's not likely correct to project any team to win 62% at home.

[wamco]

Hopefully price treats today like a playoff game

[fatcowxlive]

Not accurate. Read the article again: If Jays are in the WC game on Thursday, it's in Toronto, no matter who we play.

 

No that's not true, the article is s***. Here's the official one from MLB.com:

 

"For example, let's assume that Team A (first pick//Jays) and Team B (second pick//Tigers) both choose the designations that give them two chances to make the postseason, leaving Team C with only one chance. Teams A and B would play at the home field of Team A on Tuesday.

 

The winner of that game would become the host team in the actual Wild Card Game on Thursday; the loser would travel to face Team C on Wednesday."

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/199753224/2016-mlb-tiebreaker-scenarios//

[fatcowxlive]

Well Seattle's done. Now Detroit has to beat Atlanta and Cleveland to force a tiebreak with either Toronto or Baltimore (or both), depending what happens tomorrow. Detroit cannot afford a choke job with Verlander and Fullmer going the next two games.

 

Games of interest in the AL:

Toronto (Sanchez) vs. Boston (Price on a limited pitch count to tune up for the postseason)

Detroit (Verlander) vs. Atlanta (Teheran--FINAL game ever at Turner Field)

Orioles (Gausman) vs. New York (Cessa)

Cleveland (Tomlin) vs. KC (Kennedy)

 

Monday

Cleveland (TBA--likely Merritt or Plutko) vs. Detroit(Fullmer)

 

Detroit really can't afford tiebreakers--they're looking at Boyd/Norris/Zimmermann(who was awful tonight) having to pitch tiebreak and potential wild card games vs. the Jays and/or Orioles.

 

To be honest I can see Zimmerman going Tuesday then Verlander going Wednesday on 3 days rest. Too risky otherwise

[RealAccountant]

This is so confusing so even with the tournament there will be another wild card game. Potentially we are looking at 3 games for the Jays even before the ALDS begin?

[harvey16]

Quick question. Are you allowed to use expanded rosters for tiebreaker games since they aren't technically postseason games? Tried googling it, can't seem to find the answer. Thanks!

[Laika]

Quick question. Are you allowed to use expanded rosters for tiebreaker games since they aren't technically postseason games? Tried googling it, can't seem to find the answer. Thanks!

 

I am pretty sure it is technically an extension of the regular season and expanded rosters apply.

[JoeCarter]

This is so confusing so even with the tournament there will be another wild card game. Potentially we are looking at 3 games for the Jays even before the ALDS begin?

 

Could be worse. The Tigers could potentially be playing 6 games in 6 days in different cities:

Sun: @ ATL (#162 today)

Mon: vs Cle (make-up game which will be played unless both Cle wins and Bos loses today)

Tues: @ Tor (1st play-in game)

Wed: @ Bal (if they lose Tues)

Thurs: @ Tor (WC game)

Fri: @ Tex (ALDS)

[FrozenRopes]

Could be worse. The Tigers could potentially be playing 6 games in 6 days in different cities:

Sun: @ ATL (#162 today)

Mon: vs Cle (make-up game which will be played unless both Cle wins and Bos loses today)

Tues: @ Tor (1st play-in game)

Wed: @ Bal (if they lose Tues)

Thurs: @ Tor (WC game)

Fri: @ Tex (ALDS)

 

Haha, is that for real? I dont get how they could lose Tuesday and play again.

[CBlake]

I am pretty sure it is technically an extension of the regular season and expanded rosters apply.

 

That is true, game 163, 164 and so on are regular season games, stats also count for the season totals.