Justin Smoak contract extension

[West Texas Forever]

On a side note, anyone going to the GNR concert tonight?

[Frenchsoup]

This FO is not that smart. I thought they were smarter.

 

They value the prospects so much, that's fine. Just don't go around disrespecting your star players. Eddy/Bautista with contracts, Tulo/Martin with poor play that was leaked to the media.

[BTS]

On a side note, anyone going to the GNR concert tonight?

 

What members of the original band are playing?

[AdamGreenwood]

Part of the issue is that AAA is a wasteland.

 

Who do we call up if we need a 1st baseman? Jesus Montero?

Who do we call up if we need a starter? Scott Diamond?

 

It's awful down there, probably the worst depth of any team in MLB.

If the Jays can't attract and keep mediocre talent in AAA, then they need to start paying guys, between 100,000 and 500,000 to stay all year, getting shuffled between MLB and AAA. Maybe it costs us a few million, but definitely worth it.

[West Texas Forever]

What members of the original band are playing?

 

Axl, Slash and Duff

[Boxcar]

He's probably the most boring regular on the team. He's been here almost two full years, but does anyone actually give half a s*** about Justin Smoak? He just kind of takes up space.

 

I kinda had some high hopes for him after he escaped Seattle but I'm over it by now. I suppose it isn't a terrible signing but I don't understand the urgency. It's like they are predicting some kind of second half Bautista-esque breakout.

[fatcowxlive]

Part of the issue is that AAA is a wasteland.

 

Who do we call up if we need a 1st baseman? Jesus Montero?

Who do we call up if we need a starter? Scott Diamond?

 

It's awful down there, probably the worst depth of any team in MLB.

If the Jays can't attract and keep mediocre talent in AAA, then they need to start paying guys, between 100,000 and 500,000 to stay all year, getting shuffled between MLB and AAA. Maybe it costs us a few million, but definitely worth it.

 

I agree with the depth problem, not sure about the whole attracting players thing

[BTS]

Axl, Slash and Duff

 

Wo, didn't know Axl and Slash had made amends.

[RealAccountant]

This signing signals a huge rebuilding after this year. Smoak being a filler really.

[West Texas Forever]

Wo, didn't know Axl and Slash had made amends.

 

Yeah they're doing it for the money I am sure, I am going and hoping for the best but expecting a gongshow Axl rant or a few.

[Angrioter]

Shapiro is good

 

2002: Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew FOR Lee Stevens, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore

2002: Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese FOR Travis Hafner and Aaron Myette

2006: Eduardo Perez FOR Asdrubal Cabrera

2006: Ben Broussard and cash FOR Shin-Soo Choo and PTBNL Shawn Nottingham

2008: CC Sabathia FOR Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and PTBNL Michael Brantley

2008: Casey Blake and cash FOR Carlos Santana and Jonathan Meloan

2009: Cliff Lee FOR Jason Knapp, Lou Marson, Jason Donald, and Carlos Carrasco

2011: Alex White and Drew Pomeranz FOR Ubaldo Jimenez

[Jimcanuck]

Ya I think 5 of those are basically AA regime moves. Estrada, Happ, Barney, Chavez and Carrera.

 

Saunders and prospects for Bruce was a pretty dumb attempt. This signing is pretty dumb.

 

I'm not saying this FO is like the D-Backs or anything, but I would have expected more. I think we all would have if we're being honest.

 

We don't know the full details of the Bruce deal. Who where the prospects involved for example.

 

Look at Cleveland this year, that's Shatkins' team

 

I'm sure they see the window for this team as rapidly closing and a need to acquire high end prospects by draft/trade/whatever

[fatcowxlive]

Shapiro is good

 

2002: Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew FOR Lee Stevens, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore

2002: Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese FOR Travis Hafner and Aaron Myette

2006: Eduardo Perez FOR Asdrubal Cabrera

2006: Ben Broussard and cash FOR Shin-Soo Choo and PTBNL Shawn Nottingham

2008: CC Sabathia FOR Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and PTBNL Michael Brantley

2008: Casey Blake and cash FOR Carlos Santana and Jonathan Meloan

2009: Cliff Lee FOR Jason Knapp, Lou Marson, Jason Donald, and Carlos Carrasco

2011: Alex White and Drew Pomeranz FOR Ubaldo Jimenez

 

Aha! But he had talent to trade! Lets see him trade with an empty cabinet!

 

Atkins scared the s*** out of me on Baseball Central yesterday, he said the Jays are a hard team to upgrade and keeps saying that budget isn't the issue but having players to trade. I'm not sure if he's lowering our expectations or we're not going to have a real eventful trade deadlien

[John_Havok]

Yeah they're doing it for the money I am sure, I am going and hoping for the best but expecting a gongshow Axl rant or a few.

 

Pretty sure its being billed as the final GNR tour ever

[Jimcanuck]

Me bro saw GNR in Nashville last week. Said Nashville was awesome, didn't say a peep about the concert.

[West Texas Forever]

Pretty sure its being billed as the final GNR tour ever

 

Well I was born in 1988 so I missed their heyday so if that is the case I am glad I get to see them, and to anyone that saw them when they were on top of the world, I envy you.

[BTS]

Ya I think 5 of those are basically AA regime moves. Estrada, Happ, Barney, Chavez and Carrera.

 

Saunders and prospects for Bruce was a pretty dumb attempt. This signing is pretty dumb.

 

I'm not saying this FO is like the D-Backs or anything, but I would have expected more. I think we all would have if we're being honest.

 

I don't think you can really criticize them for deals that never happened with details that are unconfirmed.

[West Texas Forever]

Me bro saw GNR in Nashville last week. Said Nashville was awesome, didn't say a peep about the concert.

 

Nashville is a fun city for sure, very similar to Austin, Texas. If you like country music I have never heard of anyone having a bad time in Cashville.

[BTS]

Aha! But he had talent to trade! Lets see him trade with an empty cabinet!

 

Atkins scared the s*** out of me on Baseball Central yesterday, he said the Jays are a hard team to upgrade and keeps saying that budget isn't the issue but having players to trade. I'm not sure if he's lowering our expectations or we're not going to have a real eventful trade deadlien

 

Funny enough, that's music to my ears. I hate the idea of loading up on pending free agents at the trade deadline.

[TheHurl]

Plus Saunders is going to need rest days as well !!! Lol

 

Saunders is a Free Agent as well. Of the 12 pending FA's from the 25 man/DL (which is the most I can ever remember) only Thole or Barney are less interesting than Smoak. I know they feel they need bodies for next year (thinking back to the comments after the failed Saunders for Bruce trade), but this seems so unnecessary

[Krylian]

Aha! But he had talent to trade! Lets see him trade with an empty cabinet!

 

Atkins scared the s*** out of me on Baseball Central yesterday, he said the Jays are a hard team to upgrade and keeps saying that budget isn't the issue but having players to trade. I'm not sure if he's lowering our expectations or we're not going to have a real eventful trade deadlien

 

I was expecting all season long that we wouldn't have an eventful deadline. Expect a Grill kind of deal. Depth for essentially nothing. I expect this team to turn to s*** this offseason.

[West Texas Forever]

So with this signing can we expect the following walks.

 

Saunders

EE

Joey

Cecil

Storen

[Krylian]

Smoak was signed cause he's cheap. We're going to lose big time talent and the replacements are going to be a big downgrade I believe.

 

2016 or bust.

[Angrioter]

Q: It wouldn’t change the amount of money spent?

 

Shapiro: It would change the amount of spent to 15 million dollars a year. What does that buy you in free agency? Very little. One and a half wins.

 

 

 

Q: How is that figure determined?

Shapiro: Our analysts can put a value on what it costs in free agency to sign a player and what that means in Wins Above Replacement and what those players end up costing in free agency and that changes every year. They measure all the players signed in free agency and what their history has been and what they offer going forward and they place a value. The challenge in free agency is you’re often paying for that in the first year of a contract, and in the out years of a contract the players WAR usually goes down because he’s usually past his prime. So it becomes a less efficient contract over time. That’s why free agency is never the best way to build. It’s a good way to supplement but not build.

 

 

 

Q: So $8 million for one win?

Shapiro: It’s $9 (million) now. It was $8 (million) two yeas ago. I think at the end of this year they figured out it was nine. And when those wins come in the win curve are important. What does that win mean if it’s the difference between 80 and 81? Very little. But if that win’s the difference between 89 and 90, that could be a meaningful win.

 

 

 

Q: Aren’t there certain players though that could be worth more than that? The right guy and the right fit could mean more than that?

Shapiro: I think there are certain players at certain positions that might be able to leverage impact on other players. Like a catcher for sure. Maybe a leadership component. More than stats alone. We factor those things in. There are certain subjective roles to what certain guys bring to the table beyond just the objective analysis of ‘this is what their added value is.’

 

But you have to find some way to place a value on what guys bring to the table. We don’t use those conventional stats. We use our own methodology. It does factor subjective and scouting information and makeup and personality and character and all those things in. In the end you’re adding up and trying to determine how many wins that player impacts when you bring him on board. That’s what you’re trying to figure out.

[West Texas Forever]

Smoak was signed cause he's cheap. We're going to lose big time talent and the replacements are going to be a big downgrade I believe.

 

2016 or bust.

 

[Laika]

Smoak can easily be benched or traded or whatever at that salary. It's what the Rays gave LoMo. It's the going rate for a platoon 1B. Doesn't block anybody or impede any future moves.

[Jimcanuck]

Smoak was signed cause he's cheap. We're going to lose big time talent and the replacements are going to be a big downgrade I believe.

 

2016 or bust.

 

Need a good number of cost controlled elite players to contend for WS, or pull an Amaro Jr or AA and trade prospects for rentals for a kick at the can.

 

Shatkins will take the 1st approach.

[BlueJayWay]

I don't understand this.

[HERPDERP]

Can't wait to see Smoak bat 5th for the next 2 years

[jaysblue]

Smoak can easily be benched or traded or whatever at that salary. It's what the Rays gave LoMo. It's the going rate for a platoon 1B. Doesn't block anybody or impede any future moves.

 

You can probably find a similar or better platoon 1B cheaper in the offseason and I'm certainly sure without a two-year commitment attached.