Why Do Folk Still Hate Advanced stats?

[ChrisS]

Curious, but to lazy to look it up....what was the jays run differential last year at 22 games?

 

+3 runs, 22 games in.

[Stangstag]

+3 runs, 22 games in.

 

And its at like -2 right now? Not a big deal

[Spanky99]

And its at like -2 right now? Not a big deal

 

lol... exactly the same Pythagorean record and all. Dat run differential.

[Statman]

Dat -6 run differential.

[Olerud363]

People who use "eye test" with an obvious huge home team bias are even worse.

 

What is annoying is people who don't understand standard deviation, or hypothesis testing.

 

They use the eye test to evaluate players, they are right on some. They do not stop to consider whether.

 

1. Are their predictions, over a large sample better than random chance?

2. Are their predictions, over a large sample better than predictions made by advanced stats?

 

So yeah... they can say "yo bro, advanced stats can't capture the brilliance of Ryan Goins, only an ace like me, who's watched every game since 81 (out west in the 70s) can do that" and when Ryan Goins is hot they can take credit. But is it true over a longer history?

[Spanky99]

Dat run differential.......

 

One game away from the break... discuss..

[Spanky99]

PS. My Goal isn't to take your eye test and fun away, it's the number as a whole. Who's hot, who's not. Guys go in slumps all the time, at the beginning of the season it is easy to pin-point, this happens every year to guys all the time, you just wouldn't see the numbers in July or August, they differentiate largely now, but not then. Stay positive.

 

You don't say... Spanky?

[Spanky99]

Small samples kill folks. Lets stay positive.

[Spanky99]

My Point again, we're a very Good Team!

[bones10]

Would you have bumped this thread if the team was 20 games below .500 at this point?

[Spanky99]

Would you have bumped this thread if the team was 20 games below .500 at this point?

 

No. Fact is, I knew this team is great.

[bones10]

No. Fact is, I knew this team is great.

 

I hope you're right cause I dont see the Red sox and Orioles sitting on their hands during the trade deadline - which on contrast, the Jays will almost certainly be doing.

[Spanky99]

I hope you're right cause I dont see the Red sox and Orioles sitting on their hands during the trade deadline - which on contrast, the Jays will almost certainly be doing.

 

K......... you can FO, when we all celebrate!

[Spanky99]

Fact is, everyone was in hysteria during the start of this thread.(why I made it) I said and knew this team is too good. I was right, and we have nothing but the second half to get too. We'll even get Bats back, c'mon, get real. Believe Folks!

[Krylian]

If this team falters and doesn't make these playoffs you're gonna get railed in this thread.

[Stangstag]

I hope you're right cause I dont see the Red sox and Orioles sitting on their hands during the trade deadline - which on contrast, the Jays will almost certainly be doing.

 

Sometimes, I wonder if you actually do hope the Jays fail. Maybe you should become a Redsox fan. Nobody is forcing you to follow the Jays.

[Cyborg]

I'm actually impressed that Spanky can remember making this thread with all the sauce he hits.

[bones10]

Sometimes, I wonder if you actually do hope the Jays fail. Maybe you should become a Redsox fan. Nobody is forcing you to follow the Jays.

 

I mean do you think what I wrote isn't fair? The jays do not have the pieces to make major moves at the deadline or the management willing to trade the few prospects we have, where as Boston not only has the pieces, they have the money to resign anybody they please in the off season. Lets say the Sox trade for Rich hill and a few decent caliber players they need (I'm not really sure what they need other than starting pitching) I do not think the jays keep pace with them for the division and although Spanky is right, the team is playing well I don't think they can fend off a retooled Boston team, and I hope not a Orioles team to boot.

 

We saw it happen last year when the Yankees collapsed after adding nobody at the deadline while the Jays splurged.

 

Trust me I love the Jays its just Spankys 'neer neer I told you so' attitude even though many peoples doubts were justified (yours included im sure) just kind of rubbed me the wrong way.

[Stangstag]

I mean do you think what I wrote isn't fair? The jays do not have the pieces to make major moves at the deadline or the management willing to trade the few prospects we have, where as Boston not only has the pieces, they have the money to resign anybody they please in the off season. Lets say the Sox trade for Rich hill and a few decent caliber players they need (I'm not really sure what they need other than starting pitching) I do not think the jays keep pace with them for the division and although Spanky is right, the team is playing well I don't think they can fend off a retooled Boston team, and I hope not a Orioles team to boot.

 

We saw it happen last year when the Yankees collapsed after adding nobody at the deadline while the Jays splurged.

 

Trust me I love the Jays its just Spankys 'neer neer I told you so' attitude even though many peoples doubts were justified (yours included im sure) just kind of rubbed me the wrong way.

 

Yes, I think you're wrong. And so does Fangraphs.

[RealAccountant]

The Jays are a better team than the Redsox or the Orioles even if they acquire more help.

[Rusty_Savage]

Well that kind of depends on who they acquire. Boston has the prospect capital to add some top notch talent.