Over under 850 runs for Jays

[rookiefuzz]

Sorry if this question has been talked about. I'm sure it has. I just made a bet with family that our offence will score more than 850 runs.

 

He thinks I'm crazy, that to replicate last year is nuts. I say the lineup is the same whilst the pitch recognition and protection the lineup offers is similar to the 2009 Yankees (barring injury).

 

What are your guys' thoughts? I usually only read here and almost never post.

 

Go Jays!

[G-Snarls]

Over

[HERPDERP]

Our players will regress but it'll be made up by Tulo and Travis.

 

I expect Pillar and Colabello (especially him) to fall off the face of the earth.

 

Over

[Maahfaace]

If everything goes right, this team has the potential to be the first team to 1000 runs scored since the indians in 1999. Its unlikely to happen, but the potential is definitely there.

[Dick_Pole]

I believe that you have made a good bet.

[BigCecil]

Our players will regress but it'll be made up by Tulo and Travis.

 

I expect Pillar and Colabello (especially him) to fall off the face of the earth.

 

Over

 

I don't see Cola having the kind of BABIP he did 2015 but he will be serviceable. Pillar had a 93 wRC+ 2015. I think he can do that again. I just think the all out way he plays D has a shelf life before injuries hit. I also wish Gibby wouldn't be so brain dead as to make him our LO hitter. More ABS for Pillar on this team is not something we need.

[BlueJayWay]

Last year's team scored 891 runs on a 797 OPS. Usually an 800 OPS leads to ~850 runs or so. They had an unusually large split with runners on/RISP, so it was a really good offense but arguably overachieved a bit in terms of actual runs scored. It's pretty much the same offense this year with Tulo added. I think they can put up a similar overall slash line to last year, but it might result in fewer runs. I think 850 is a good spot to put the over/under.

[burlingtonbandit]

Last year's team scored 891 runs on a 797 OPS. Usually an 800 OPS leads to ~850 runs or so. They had an unusually large split with runners on/RISP, so it was a really good offense but arguably overachieved a bit in terms of actual runs scored. It's pretty much the same offense this year with Tulo added. I think they can put up a similar overall slash line to last year, but it might result in fewer runs. I think 850 is a good spot to put the over/under.

 

Does this calculation take into account "the man in white" though?

[jays4life19]

I'll go with the smart money...push.

[Atothe]

I'll go with the smart money...push.

 

Coward

[rookiefuzz]

Our players will regress but it'll be made up by Tulo and Travis.

 

Over

 

Agreed. Another external factor is the addition of Kimrel and Price to the Sox and Chapman to the Yankees. How that affects overall runs produced may not be significant, but it could tip the scales.

 

Everything considered and not to mention this is EE and Bautista's walk year, I think we exceed 900.

[Krylian]

Will be over. As long as they don't give up over 850 as well.

[Angrioter]

Under

[Krylian]

Under

 

He didn't ask if you prefer to be over or under a donkey...

[Chappy]

Over.

[Zaun of the Dead]

Under.

[o2cui2i]

I'll go with over and hope the jays are healthy.

 

the big question is not this, but instead how many runs with they give up.

[Jonn]

Under.

[X_X]

Over - easy!

[Spanky99]

I believe that you have made a good bet.

 

Indeed.

[Spanky99]

I'll go with over and hope the jays are healthy.

 

the big question is not this, but instead how many runs with they give up.

 

A lot fewer than they'll score.

[Dick_Pole]

This bet looked like a complete bust at the end of May. Now the team has some life to it. All the hitters are hitting as expected and Bautista is coming back.

 

So far: 478 runs in 96 games, average 4.98 per game

Needed to reach 850: 372 runs in 66 games, average 5.63 per game.

June/July: 253 runs scored in 42 games, average 6.02 per game

 

Think they can do it? I remain optimistic.