Regression to the mean thread

[Angrioter]

My top 3 candidates 2016 season:

 

Colabello v 2015 season

Estrada v 2015 season

Sanchez v 2016 spring training

[dineke]

Goins v 2 months of 2015 season

[King]

Travis

[KingKat]

Positive example:

 

Tulo versus 2015 season

[KingKat]

Travis

 

Can you regress if you don't even play?

[Angrioter]

Goins v 2 months of 2015 season

 

Goins projection 2016 .240/.289/.333 = -31 wRC+

[dineke]

Can you regress if you don't even play?

 

travis going to regress into having a shoulder. good news!

[KinofChaos]

My top 3 candidates 2016 season:

 

Colabello v 2015 season

Estrada v 2015 season

Sanchez v 2016 spring training

 

I think you just killed any reason for this thread to go any further. Nailed it.

[Sammy225]

My top 3 candidates 2016 season:

 

Colabello v 2015 season

Estrada v 2015 season

Sanchez v 2016 spring training

 

I would not classify this with the other 2. Estradas best season was in 2012 when he put up a 3.3WAR, 2013 he matched what he did last year by putting up a 1.8 WAR, and 2014 was his only down year.

[G-Snarls]

My top 3 candidates 2016 season:

 

Colabello v 2015 season

Estrada v 2015 season

Sanchez v 2016 spring training

 

Tulo +

[Angrioter]

I would not classify this with the other 2. Estradas best season was in 2012 when he put up a 3.3WAR, 2013 he matched what he did last year by putting up a 1.8 WAR, and 2014 was his only down year.

 

.216 Babip helped him to prevent runs.

I know, the true talent, but last year was the year when nobody could hit him like a bitch.

[Sammy225]

.216 Babip helped him to prevent runs.

I know, the true talent, but last year was the year when nobody could hit him like a bitch.

 

He learned all he needed from MB

[Angrioter]

He learned all he needed from MB

 

FIP beaten rotation: Sanchez (High walk), Estrada-Happ (High HR),and Dickey (Low K),

[Olerud363]

My top 3 candidates 2016 season:

 

Colabello v 2015 season

Estrada v 2015 season

Sanchez v 2016 spring training

 

Donaldson .270 30 hmzz 100 rbzzz 5 WARzzzz (defense down a bit)

 

Bautistazzz 132 gamz 31 hmmzz .258 .370 .501

 

EE - .265 29 80

 

Tuloz .280 25 80

 

Sanchezes - 11-11 4.09 171 ip, 132 k, 88 bb

 

Grant - regresses to very few Sanchez posts (if Sanchez starts cold 2-4 5.33 for April) or lotz of Sanchez posts (Sanchez start hot 4-1 2.55 april)

[Olerud363]

I would not classify this with the other 2. Estradas best season was in 2012 when he put up a 3.3WAR, 2013 he matched what he did last year by putting up a 1.8 WAR, and 2014 was his only down year.

 

I think the fangraphs is smart so it gives him 1.8 WAR (accurate) based on peripherals.

 

So his other stats will regress to 2 WAR level. His WAR could be the same even if his ERA goes up a run. Like if he goes 11-11 4.00 he might get 2 WAR for that.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think Donaldson and EE regress offensively. Both had such great years so I guess its expected.

 

I think Goins reverts back to being the crap hitter he was as well.

[Nafro]

Can you regress if you don't even play?

 

Isn't that complete and total regression?

[Angrioter]

Isn't that complete and total regression?

 

If you don't have sex, you're not regressing for your old "awful sex performances". I meant, no sex > bad sex.

[Stangstag]

I think Donaldson and EE regress offensively. Both had such great years so I guess its expected.

 

I think Goins reverts back to being the crap hitter he was as well.

 

EE's season last year was very similar to his previous 3 seasons. The only reason to expect regression would be due to his age

[burlingtonbandit]

EE's season last year was very similar to his previous 3 seasons. The only reason to expect regression would be due to his age

 

Well you could say that for everyone really. How about I expect Edwin to be worse than his projections?

[Stangstag]

Well you could say that for everyone really. How about I expect Edwin to be worse than his projections?

 

Why? If he stays healthy, he probably beats his projections

[burlingtonbandit]

Why?

 

Mentioned it before but his contact rates have decreased the last few years, also the injuries are starting to pile up.

[Angrioter]

Why? If he stays healthy, he probably beats his projections

 

Edwin wRC+:

2013: +46

2014: +51

2015: +50

Projection 2016: +35

[gruber92]

Goins will put up an OPS north of .650 this year, wouldn't be surprised to see it creep over .700

 

Colabello will probably regress a bit, but will still put up good numbers.

[Olerud363]

Isn't that complete and total regression?

 

Blue Jays message board have small misunderstanding on what regress is --

 

if some guy usually plays 132 games ==

 

a) if he play 150 predict he goes back to 132 but not all the way back (like 140 - something might have changed)

if he play 40 games predict he goes back to 132 but not all the way back (like 110)

 

If he play 0 game he likely

 

a) badly injured like Maicer Izturus

dead

c) quit cuz son could not come to clubhouse

[Angrioter]

Goins will put up an OPS north of .650 this year, wouldn't be surprised to see it creep over .700

 

Colabello will probably regress a bit, but will still put up good numbers.

 

Pitchers avg > Goins projection 2016 .240/.289/.333, -31 wRC+

[gruber92]

When Saunders goes down, Cecilliani will make us forget all about him.

[gruber92]

Pitchers avg > Goins projection 2016 .240/.289/.333, -31 wRC+

 

C'mon bro, we've been through this before. Projections are not always accurate.

[Governator]

Drew Hutchison 2015: 5.57 ERA - 4.21 xFIP, projects @ 4.00 xfip

Aaron Loup 2015: 4.46 ERA - 2.89 xFIP

[BigCecil]

Positive example:

 

Tulo versus 2015 season

 

How dare you?! I don't see Pillar putting up a 4+ WAR again. He just isn't league avg hitter and I cannot imagine he will stay healthy again with the way he plays the OF. I watched the Jays Top 50 plays 2015 on Sportsnet and the guy had an incredible year on D. I think of the 50 he probably had 12 of the plays, all on D. He had a highlight reel season.