ST GDT: Jays @ Tigers (March 22 at 1:05 ET)

[burlingtonbandit]

This lineup is absolutely crazy. Edwin hasn't even played this Spring and the lineup without him is still terrifying.

 

EDIT: And Saunders with a huge double. Dude should be leading off. Gibby christened Pillar with the job without even giving open try outs a fair shake. It's painfully obvious the decision was based on nothing but perception.

 

I hope Saunders was hitting 8th because it was a LHP on the mound today. He's probably the 5th best hitter on the team at least vs RHP and should be hitting in the top 6.

[Governator]

I hope Saunders was hitting 8th because it was a LHP on the mound today. He's probably the 5th best hitter on the team at least vs RHP and should be hitting in the top 6.

 

I think Colabello & Smoak back to back makes for good early comparisons going in to regular season for Gibby.

[THANOS]

How'd that work out...

 

Created a run for Detroit?

 

http://i.imgur.com/7KU7Fqx.png

[Boxcar]

Wish I could have watched Hutch. Looks like he got horribly lucky today.

[glory]

Yeah seriously, as long as he's healthy, have Saunders lead off, at least against RHP. Pillar leading off and Saunders batting 8th is straight up Ned Yost. Come on, Gibby.

[Boxcar]

Because his have been described as flat, slow, and are many times crushed. They also note that his release looks off, leading to these, which seemed to be a consistent issue for him last season regarding his command.

 

Guys in the booth think fastballs should always be down in the zone, so guys who miss up are always "struggling with their release point". Not everyone is suited to being a groundball pitcher. Max Scherzer is one of the best in baseball and he keeps his fastballs up.

 

Not picking on you or anything. Aaron Sanchez keeps his fastball down and he has worse command than Hutch. No one notes that his release is off when he misses the zone all the time.

[Cyborg]

Up is really no worse than down. Just avoid the middle and it's good.

[burlingtonbandit]

Up is really no worse than down. Just avoid the middle and it's good.

 

Thats where Hutch gets killled. Too much middle of the plate. I feel like broadcasters refer to the middle of the zone as up in the zone too much.

[THANOS]

Guys in the booth think fastballs should always be down in the zone, so guys who miss up are always "struggling with their release point". Not everyone is suited to being a groundball pitcher. Max Scherzer is one of the best in baseball and he keeps his fastballs up.

 

Not picking on you or anything. Aaron Sanchez keeps his fastball down and he has worse command than Hutch. No one notes that his release is off when he misses the zone all the time.

 

But the difference with Hutch and Scherzer is about 3 mph on that high fastball and a much better spin rate with the latter.

[burlingtonbandit]

Jays have 18 hits Tigers have 1. Let that sink in for a second lol.

[Boxcar]

But the difference with Hutch and Scherzer is about 3 mph on that high fastball and a much better spin rate with the latter.

 

Wei-Yin Chen, then. I can come up with plenty of examples of successful arms who are of a similar skill level as Hutch. Jamie Moyer, Danny Salazar, Cliff Lee, Jake Peavy, Scott Kazmir, Ervin Santana.

[THANOS]

Wei-Yin Chen, then. I can come up with plenty of examples of successful arms who are of a similar skill level as Hutch. Jamie Moyer, Danny Salazar, Cliff Lee, Jake Peavy, Scott Kazmir, Ervin Santana.

 

Are you saying that Wei-Yin Chen generally tosses 4SM fastballs up, flat, and in the middle of the plate frequently like Hutch, but is successful doing it?

 

Also, I'm just curious why you grouped Salazar in your comparable list?

[Boxcar]

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA&time=month&player=571800&startDate=01/01/2014&endDate=01/01/2015&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA&time=month&player=571800&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

His fastball usage doesn't seem to have changed much from 2014 to 2015, and he seemed to be decent with that same fastball. Kinda puzzling.

[Dr. Dinger]

Without knowing spin rates it's hard to say where Hutch should be throwing the fastball. We know Estrada should be throwing it up. If Estrada threw it anywhere but up he'd be f***ed.

 

Yeah, he'd probably lead the league in home runs some year if his location wasn't sharp. Oh wait...

[Dr. Dinger]

Wei-Yin Chen, then. I can come up with plenty of examples of successful arms who are of a similar skill level as Hutch. Jamie Moyer, Danny Salazar, Cliff Lee, Jake Peavy, Scott Kazmir, Ervin Santana.

 

Chris Young

[THANOS]

The biggest issue with Hutch is throws fastballs straight, flat, and down the middle frequently. It's either a command issue or someone is calling a terrible game (Hutch or Martin/catcher).

 

http://i.imgur.com/PJWYWVe.gif?1

 

Sometimes he gets lucky with it, but generally he's playing with fire.

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TuJMbuIWpPU/Uztlc08LQKI/AAAAAAAAHPs/HyRw12lDKc4/s1600/Hutch-2-rev.gif

http://i.imgur.com/TJ5e98i.gif?1

[Boxcar]

Are you saying that Wei-Yin Chen generally tosses 4SM fastballs up, flat, and in the middle of the plate frequently like Hutch, but is successful doing it?

 

Would certainly appear to be the case:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA&time=month&player=612672&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

Also, I'm just curious why you grouped Salazar in your comparable list?

 

Salazar is a bit better than Hutch but there isn't a chasm in talent. Both guys fail to get many ground balls.

[THANOS]

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA&time=month&player=571800&startDate=01/01/2014&endDate=01/01/2015&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA&time=month&player=571800&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

His fastball usage doesn't seem to have changed much from 2014 to 2015, and he seemed to be decent with that same fastball. Kinda puzzling.

 

It's certainly not a very big change, by any means, but it definitely looks like his fastballs up in the zone increased a bit, which kind of fits the narrative a bit.

[Dr. Dinger]

Salazar is a bit better than Hutch?

 

Like a big bit.

[Boxcar]

The biggest issue with Hutch is throws fastballs straight, flat, and down the middle frequently. It's either a command issue or someone is calling a terrible game (Hutch or Martin/catcher).

 

http://i.imgur.com/PJWYWVe.gif?1

 

Sometimes he gets lucky with it, but generally he's playing with fire.

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TuJMbuIWpPU/Uztlc08LQKI/AAAAAAAAHPs/HyRw12lDKc4/s1600/Hutch-2-rev.gif

http://i.imgur.com/TJ5e98i.gif?1

 

This is a silly exercise, guys miss in the middle of the plate all the time. Hutch struggles with command but my main point is that he shouldn't be trying to fix it by "keeping the fastball down" as many Buck Martinezes are fond of saying. That's not his strength.

[Boxcar]

Salazar is a bit better than Hutch?

 

Sorry, what degree would you like me to use? Talent wise, maybe Hutch is a 3.8 to Salazar's 3.2 or 3.3. The point I'm getting at is Salazar sucks at getting ground balls.

[THANOS]

Would certainly appear to be the case:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA&time=month&player=612672&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

Interesting. Perhaps Hutch should try busting RH inside and pitching away from LH like Chen and see if that works?

 

Salazar is a bit better than Hutch but there isn't a chasm in talent. Both guys fail to get many ground balls.

 

Sure, that's fair, but not sure I'd really group them together.

 

Salazar

http://i.snag.gy/bXPDW.jpg

 

Hutch

http://i.snag.gy/Kt6X6.jpg

 

There's kind of a significant FIP difference and K/9 difference. They do seem to have similar B/9 rates.

[Spanky99]

20 flippin hits?!

[burlingtonbandit]

I think the biggest change was his slider was terrible last year and really good in 2014. When hitters only have to worry about 1 pitch its much easier to hit. He could get away with fastballs in the middle up because hitters had to worry about the slider.

 

Edit: He's also had issues with tipping his pitches especially with runners on base.

 

3.67 FIP with no runners on and a 5.33 FIP with guys on base last year.

[Spanky99]

Interesting. Perhaps Hutch should try busting RH inside and pitching away from LH like Chen and see if that works?

 

 

 

Sure, that's fair, but not sure I'd really group them together.

 

Salazar

http://i.snag.gy/bXPDW.jpg

 

Hutch

http://i.snag.gy/Kt6X6.jpg

 

There's kind of a significant FIP difference and K/9 difference. They do seem to have similar B/9 rates.

 

Wat? They're similar... the BABIP isn't. Hence the rest of the irregularities.

[THANOS]

I think the biggest change was his slider was terrible last year and really good in 2014. When hitters only have to worry about 1 pitch its much easier to hit. He could get away with fastballs in the middle up because hitters had to worry about the slider.

 

Probably a good suggestion. Do we have the SwSt% change from 2014-2015 on his slider?

[Cyborg]

Probably a good suggestion. Do we have the SwSt% change from 2014-2015 on his slider?

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=10732&position=P

16.2% to 13.9%.

[THANOS]

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=10732&position=P

16.2% to 13.9%.

 

So there was a drop!

[burlingtonbandit]

Blue Jays 23 hits

 

Tigers 2

[Laika]

Probably a good suggestion. Do we have the SwSt% change from 2014-2015 on his slider?

 

Visually, Hutch's slider went from an obvious plus pitch to something closer to average. I have no idea what happened. It's very weird.