Who will be the closer in 2016?

[Laika]

I just don't have any idea whether it would be the smart move or not. His mechanics and ability to avoid injury is something I don't really know much about. Does he project to be a good starter?

 

I am sure the FO has discussed it internally.

 

Stuff wise, it's hard to see why he couldn't start. 95.5mph touching 99.4 as an RP probably becomes 93 touching 97 as a SP, so still very good.

Command is obviously there.

The slider and the changeup both look good to me. Slider seems to get an elite whiff rate. Fastball gets an above average whiff rate in the pen.

He would profile/project well as a starter, I think.

 

The entire thing hinges on mechanics. If they have good reason to think he won't hold up as a starter then they should leave him be. I think he does have ugly mechanics... but I don't know anything.

There's also maybe some hangover from concerns surrounding him as a prospect. He was always referenced as someone with a "bad body", and then he ended up getting hurt. Not that he's out of shape anymore.

 

It's really not a cut and dry question and I don't think anybody from "outside baseball" can answer it with any competency.

[Brownie19]

You don't offer a QO to a guy unless you're comfortable paying him that amount. Mark Shapiro has said this verbatim. The idea of having Storen on the books next year @ ~$15M is highly unsettling. I think you guys are vastly overstating how big of a consideration that will be.

 

Ryan Madson just got $27M guaranteed. He's only thrown 63 innings over the past 4 years and was less valuable last year than Storen was in either of the last 2 years. Something tells me he'll be able to get a lot more on the open market than our QO. The question is - will he "bet" on himself, take the QO, then cash in the following season.

[Laika]

I also really don't think one less year of saves is going to affect Osuna's arb as much as you guys think. He'll still be save-collecting again by the time he even goes to arb.

 

Not to mention, paying Storen $8.4M to save a few bucks a few years from now is nonsensical.

 

I always find it funny when a team brings in an arb3 / FA salary closer and some people say "this will help keep Young Holds Guy's arbitrations down!". Nutshell thoughts don't get much tinier.

[Dr. Dinger]

Stuff wise, it's hard to see why he couldn't start. 95.5mph touching 99.4 as an RP probably becomes 93 touching 97 as a SP, so still very good.

Command is obviously there.

The slider and the changeup both look good to me. Slider seems to get an elite whiff rate. Fastball gets an above average whiff rate in the pen.

He would profile/project well as a starter, I think.

 

The entire thing hinges on mechanics. If they have good reason to think he won't hold up as a starter then they should leave him be. I think he does have ugly mechanics... but I don't know anything.

There's also maybe some hangover from concerns surrounding him as a prospect. He was always referenced as someone with a "bad body", and then he ended up getting hurt. Not that he's out of shape anymore.

 

It's really not a cut and dry question and I don't think anybody from "outside baseball" can answer it with any competency.

 

Re: bolded part, Shapiro obviously didn't care about that with Salazar and Carrasco, who both had major durability concerns and arm injuries.

[Dr. Dinger]

Ryan Madson just got $27M guaranteed. He's only thrown 63 innings over the past 4 years and was less valuable last year than Storen was in either of the last 2 years. Something tells me he'll be able to get a lot more on the open market than our QO. The question is - will he "bet" on himself, take the QO, then cash in the following season.

 

0% chance Storen gets an AAV higher than the QO amount. Zero. Maybe he'll want that extra year guaranteed, maybe he'll just take the money and roll the dice again the following year.

[Laika]

Re: bolded part, Shapiro obviously didn't care about that with Salazar and Carrasco, who both had major durability concerns and arm injuries.

 

But maybe cleaner mechanics? I dunno.

[Dr. Dinger]

Not to mention, paying Storen $8.4M to save a few bucks a few years from now is nonsensical.

 

I always find it funny when a team brings in an arb3 / FA salary closer and some people say "this will help keep Young Holds Guy's arbitrations down!". Nutshell thoughts don't get much tinier.

 

You also don't make sub-optimal roster decisions based on possible future arb payouts, that's just idiotic. If Osuna is the better pitcher, he will close more games... unless of course Shapiro can convince Gibby that the entire concept of closers is outmoded.

[Dr. Dinger]

But maybe cleaner mechanics? I dunno.

 

Shapiro is probably sitting there thinking to himself, "I can get decent back-end bullpen guys through any number of avenues. I have a possible mid-to-upper rotation, cost-controlled pitcher with great stuff, I'm going to see what he can become as a starter." His history suggests this, and unless Osuna flat out says he no longer wants to be a starter, I see no reason not to pursue it, at least for a season or two.

[Dr. Dinger]

0% chance Storen gets an AAV higher than the QO amount. Zero. Maybe he'll want that extra year guaranteed, maybe he'll just take the money and roll the dice again the following year.

 

More to this point, if Storen turned down a QO next year to take a 3 year, $27M contract, what he'd actually be doing is locking himself into 2 extra years @ $6M AAV, which is a great way to lose money if you're Drew Storen. In order for Storen to decline the QO, he'd have to have a pretty good idea that some team was going to pay him 2/$30 or more while giving up a comp pick for the privilege.

[RealAccountant]

Osuna is the Jays closer

 

Nothing has changed

[BTS]

Not to mention, paying Storen $8.4M to save a few bucks a few years from now is nonsensical.

 

I always find it funny when a team brings in an arb3 / FA salary closer and some people say "this will help keep Young Holds Guy's arbitrations down!". Nutshell thoughts don't get much tinier.

 

There's room for more than one high-leverage arm in the pen though. Obviously they didn't bring Storen in to save money on Osuna - they brought him in to pitch 60 high leverage innings. But now that he's here, they might as well save money on Osuna.

[Brownie19]

More to this point, if Storen turned down a QO next year to take a 3 year, $27M contract, what he'd actually be doing is locking himself into 2 extra years @ $6M AAV, which is a great way to lose money if you're Drew Storen. In order for Storen to decline the QO, he'd have to have a pretty good idea that some team was going to pay him 2/$30 or more while giving up a comp pick for the privilege.

 

Yeah I hear what you're saying - that's why I acknowledged it would depend on whether he wants to bet on himself or not. I suspect relievers acknowledge how volatile they are and thus there's certainly an argument to be made for taking guaranteed money over the higher AAV. I think there's a good chance he'd be more interested in a 3 year $30M deal than a 1 year $15-$17M deal (as he should get more than Madson)

[Cyborg]

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/an-introduction-to-determining-arbitration-salaries-relief-pitchers/

 

For a RP who is arbitration-eligible for the first time, here are the statistics that correlate most with eventual salary:

Career SV: 83.28%

Platform SV: 79.07%

Career WPA: 38.15%

Career SV%: 35.60%

Career fWAR: 35.18%

Platform SV%: 27.06%

Platform SO: 25.75%

[Dr. Dinger]

Yeah I hear what you're saying - that's why I acknowledged it would depend on whether he wants to bet on himself or not. I suspect relievers acknowledge how volatile they are and thus there's certainly an argument to be made for taking guaranteed money over the higher AAV. I think there's a good chance he'd be more interested in a 3 year $30M deal than a 1 year $15-$17M deal (as he should get more than Madson)

 

$15M guaranteed is still a lot of money, though. You can live the rest of your life on that QO, no problem. Even if your arm blows up and you never pitch again, you probably have insurance for that anyway. I would take $15M guaranteed one a 1 year deal rather than $30M guaranteed over 3 years, if I were Storen, given his age and ability.

[Dr. Dinger]

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/an-introduction-to-determining-arbitration-salaries-relief-pitchers/

 

For a RP who is arbitration-eligible for the first time, here are the statistics that correlate most with eventual salary:

Career SV: 83.28%

Platform SV: 79.07%

Career WPA: 38.15%

Career SV%: 35.60%

Career fWAR: 35.18%

Platform SV%: 27.06%

Platform SO: 25.75%

 

just lol

[Dr. Dinger]

SV% shouldn't even be a stat. That's like RBI%.

[Brownie19]

But maybe cleaner mechanics? I dunno.

 

That's the question I'd love to know.......how much do front offices consider mechanics and the unproven theory's around them.

 

Also, the 2014-2015 Indians were in a much different position than the 2016 Jays. If they leave Carrasco and Salazar as starters and they breakdown - then so be it.....the team is building and trying to add assets and in their situation, the risk is worth the reward. The 2016 Jays are built to win now. If they toss Osuna in the rotation early on and he sinks or gets hurt, it could have a significant impact on their chances of winning this year. Perhaps the risk is not currently worth the reward with Osuna.

 

God what I'd give for an hour to pick Shapiro's brain.

[Laika]

That's the question I'd love to know.......how much do front offices consider mechanics and the unproven theory's around them.

 

Good front offices don't deal in unproven theories. There are certain biomechnical indicators or patterns that have observable and measurable effects on injury chance.

 

Some of it is publicly available if you do an academic search with keywords like Tommy John and "early trunk rotation", etc.

[G-Snarls]

Agreed, but the only way it's even a remote possibility is if he saves 40 games. If he saves 40 with a 2.5 ERA, you at least have some internal discussion.

 

I suppose, cause if does that, some idiotic FO will give him a Pappelbon contract

[Brownie19]

Good front offices don't deal in unproven theories. There are certain biomechnical indicators or patterns that have observable and measurable effects on injury chance.

 

Some of it is publicly available if you do an academic search with keywords like Tommy John and "early trunk rotation", etc.

 

Yeah those are what I'm talking about......I realise they all have access to a ton of information - I'm just didn't think there were any black and white answers yet. Wasn't TB adding sensors and looking to further advance the study of pitching injuries just last year? That's all I'm saying.

[Spanky99]

MLB.com, Chisolm:

 

http://www.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/163354588/

 

Dreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeew!

[Spanky99]

That is actually probably the least interesting decision. Should be Storen so he proves he's a good save collector and declines the QO.

 

Plus saves money on Osuna in Arb.

[Spanky99]

I'll ask this again. Does anyone think they Jays are reluctant to stretch him out as a starter because he has inverted W mechanics (which may have lead to his previous TJS)?

 

It's possible. You, NJH, and a few others have brought this up before, but he's young and should be stretched out, f*** it!

 

Edit: Also, don't worry about responding, I've read your guys responses and are surely valid, only the coaches/FO know.

[THANOS]

There needs to be more discussion about stretching Osuna out to be a starter. The fact that there isn't concerns me.

 

I couldn't agree more. If I had it my way, he'd be in AAA this year starting for the 1st 3-4 months before getting re-called to join our bullpen for the stretch run. Now that we have Storen, I don't see the harm in trying that?

Edited February 3, 2016 by THANOS

[TheHurl]

I also really don't think one less year of saves is going to affect Osuna's arb as much as you guys think. He'll still be save-collecting again by the time he even goes to arb.

 

The first time eligible that went to arbitration as closers (Frieri and Cishek) both got $3.8M. No holds guy has ever got higher than $1.6M. That difference probably equals $8M+ over the rest of the years of arbitration. Osuna goes to arbitration after this season. Lets say he remains a closer throughout. It should look a little like

 

$3.8, $6.8, $9.8, $12

in comparison one year not closing

$1.6, $4.2, $8, $11

 

it's not hard or fast rules but with the inefficiencies of the system this is the kind of savings.

[TheHurl]

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/an-introduction-to-determining-arbitration-salaries-relief-pitchers/

 

For a RP who is arbitration-eligible for the first time, here are the statistics that correlate most with eventual salary:

Career SV: 83.28%

Platform SV: 79.07%

Career WPA: 38.15%

Career SV%: 35.60%

Career fWAR: 35.18%

Platform SV%: 27.06%

Platform SO: 25.75%

 

you could have just said Closerz get paid more. that's a nice model though. I think my numbers are pretty close just doing it from memory.

[Cyborg]

The first time eligible that went to arbitration as closers (Frieri and Cishek) both got $3.8M. No holds guy has ever got higher than $1.6M. That difference probably equals $8M+ over the rest of the years of arbitration. Osuna goes to arbitration after this season. Lets say he remains a closer throughout. It should look a little like

 

$3.8, $6.8, $9.8, $12

in comparison one year not closing

$1.6, $4.2, $8, $11

 

it's not hard or fast rules but with the inefficiencies of the system this is the kind of savings.

 

He won't be a super 2 Hurl, jeez.

[Stangstag]

He won't be a super 2 Hurl, jeez.

 

I was so confused for a second... Osuna doesn't get ARB until after the 2017 season correct? He gets ARB salary for 2018,19, and 20

[TheHurl]

He won't be a super 2 Hurl, jeez.

 

I'm dumm.