The 2015 Winter Meetings (Dec 7-10)

[Nafro]

North WTF is happening in baseball right now?

 

Kimbrel trade is retarded

Giles trade is retarded

Greinke contract is retarded

Jose Fernandez asks are retarded

Miller trade was SUPER retarded

 

I've never seen so much stupid in such a flurry

 

DD set the value on pitching for the winter...and that value was retarded.

[Frenchsoup]

North WTF is happening in baseball right now?

 

Kimbrel trade is retarded

Giles trade is retarded

Greinke contract is retarded

Jose Fernandez asks are retarded

Miller trade was SUPER retarded

 

I've never seen so much stupid in such a flurry

 

Dombrowski-Stupid

Lunhow- Over analyzing?

Dave Stewart-Stupid

Loria/Marlins GM-Stupid and cheap

Dave Stewart-Stupid

[Nafro]

My Appel or Feliz, Preston Tucker, Daz Cameron and Akeem Bostick guess doesn't seem so ridiculous now.

[Nafro]

Dombrowski- Keeps watching every postseason game of the Tigers of the last ten years and says never again.

Lunhow- Keeps watching his bullpen's eight inning break down and swears never again.

Dave Stewart-Stupid

Loria/Marlins GM-Stupid and cheap

Dave Stewart-Stupid

 

With a twist.

[Frenchsoup]

The best way to find out what the hell Beane and Lunhow are thinking, is to look into why they gave Axford that much money. What is John Axford doing decently on the baseball field?

[GreekFatAss]

It almost seems to me like Beane tries to hard to win by being different. The fact is, he made a name for himself by being ahead of the curve with advanced analytics but since then the league for the most part has caught up. Now that he is once again at a disadvantage in terms of resources he seems to be squandering a ton of value that most think are dumb.

[Frenchsoup]

The things i see with Axford are...he pitched in COL which is actually pretty big. His fastball, change combo got a bit better.His velocity is almost 96. But he walked more then 5bb/9! He's so wild, how do you justify that signing? I don't get it....

[Farm]

The Diamondbacks really do not understand prospect valuation and put a lot of weight in pedigree and run prevention. The Jose Fernandez asks are crazy although we know from the Astros documents that teams do ask for the moon regularly. Maybe there's more to it.

 

Diamondbacks prospect valuation is very wack. The Toussaint trade was just step 1. Everyone thought they wanted to save money but they clearly had money to spend. Maybe they are on to something and we'll see an adjustment in what the market recognizes as prospect value but it is still dumb to give up so much even if they are right.

 

The Fernandez asks are probably just an example of anchoring in negotiations. It's an effective method in negotiations (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring) that can change the outcome of negotiations even when you consciously know the effects of anchoring. That way when they do decide to trade Fernandez, they might be able to get a better haul.

 

That, or maybe they are just fishing for idiots (like the Diamondbacks) and/or a desperate team.

[G-Snarls]

[Frenchsoup]

With a twist.

 

I do respect what Dombrowski has done in his career. I also think he has fallen way behind curb.

[G-Snarls]

Mlb.com interview with Shapiro today:

 

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/tor/video/v533978583/mark-shapiro-talks-about-the-blue-jays-on-mlb-tonight/?affiliateId=clubMEGAMENU

[Jonn]

I wonder if one of the teams interested in Hutchison is Arizona.

[burlingtonbandit]

I wonder if one of the teams interested in Hutchison is Arizona.

 

Doubt it. They seem to look at ERA and not value peripheral stats for pitchers as evidenced by the Miller trade. Stewart likely thinks Miller is a 3 or 4 Win upgrade over Hutch when the reality is they are quite similar pitchers.

[reedjohnsonfan]

I wonder if one of the teams interested in Hutchison is Arizona.

 

Do you think they should trade Hutchison? If they could get a decent prospect for him and then just sign Colon that could be a great idea IMO. If Hutch doesn't start in the rotation they should probably just deal him to a rebuilding or low budget team.

[Stangstag]

Do you think they should trade Hutchison? If they could get a decent prospect for him and then just sign Colon that could be a great idea IMO. If Hutch doesn't start in the rotation they should probably just deal him to a rebuilding or low budget team.

 

I personally wouldn't trade Hutch right now. Value is at an all-time low.

[reedjohnsonfan]

I personally wouldn't trade Hutch right now. Value is at an all-time low.

 

It depends on how you look at it. If he doesn't make the rotation right away, and struggles with his fastball command again, he'll be useless in trade talks.

[Laika]

It depends on how you look at it. If he doesn't make the rotation right away, and struggles with his fastball command again, he'll be useless in trade talks.

 

Makes no sense. Hutch has options so he still has a lot of value even if he's the #6 and in Buffalo at the start.

 

I guess they could trade him for other pitching, in which case it might make sense.

 

Still an awful time to sell.

[THANOS]

 

That deserves its own thread. Maybe Shapiro will get some extensions done this off-season, and/or possibly make one last FA splash (Heyward?)

[burlingtonbandit]

Hutch was fairly good in the first half but had terrible babip luck. Possible he lost his confidence towards the end of the season. He was god awful in September.

 

3.71 FIP and 3.93 xFIP in the 1st half. Consistency is definitely an issue with him though and he struggles the 3rd time through the order more than the average IIRC.

[Laika]

That deserves its own thread. Maybe Shapiro will get some extensions done this off-season, and/or possibly make one last FA splash (Heyward?)

 

read the article, lol

[Laika]

Teams have new ideas about team building but there's some faulty execution.

 

First, a bunch of top teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Royals, A's) have started prioritizing stacking elite relievers, which I think is a result of them finally realizing that you can squeeze extra WPA wins by having true elite relievers in your bullpen. fWAR tries to account for reliever leverage but is conservative because it assumes that the team would have given the opportunities to an only slightly-worse reliever instead (chaining effects). So it applies a linear factor. But that doesn't actually account for the real effects. A ~2 fWAR pitcher will be more than one win more valuable than a ~1 fWAR pitcher when inserted into a high leverage role. Some of the top relievers can get to 3-4 WPA consistently. Investing in relievers can also come with less risk since the contracts are for less money. These teams will want to spend additional assets to improve but their needs won't line up with the free agent or trade market for conventional players, so they'll splurge on a great reliever. Mark Melancon and Tony Watson have piled up more WPA over the past three seasons than Mike Trout. These bullpen stacks can be very effective if you have the right guys and use them properly. Betances and Miller totalled 8.5 in 2015. It's true that finding good or even great relievers is easy and that you can consistently build a bullpen on the cheap. However, team bullpen statistics/rankings can hide the fact that most relief innings are not high leverage and there is not nearly as much turnover at the very top of the range.

 

Interesting. Is there a recent article on this or something, or are these your own patented thoughts?

[Nafro]

There's no real justification for that, it's kind of a mystery. I started noticing mid-season that the Astros didn't trust Velasquez. He's electric, tore up the minors, does have three pitches, was good as a starter prior to moving to the bullpen/being demoted, etc. He didn't fail in the majors as a starter yet they gave plenty of starts to Asher Woj, Roberto Hernandez, Dan Straily, Samuel Deduno and others. It's worth noting that the current Astros regime did not draft him (or Delino DeShields). Maybe there are soft factors involved, who knows.

 

I think he's a very promising young starting pitcher. The Phillies don't have an offense but they're starting to build some good young pitching depth.

 

I like Franco and Nick Williams in the long term. Jeanmar Gomez,David Hernandez or Luis Garcia slide into closer for Philly now? I see Jimmy Cordero is on their depth chart.

[Nafro]

Interesting. Is there a recent article on this or something, or are these your own patented thoughts?

 

I don't know, but it kind of makes sense. Because there is no real guarantee which will be the high leverage spot in the last three innings. It is probably an equal probability of 7, 8 or 9th inning. It would make sense to have 2-3 shutdown dominant relief pitchers. Especially since old school thinking still dictates that you always use your closer in the ninth.

 

The idea that Kelvin Hererra was as important as Wade Davis was as important as Greg Holland. Therefore each was also interchangeable and could move in to replace the other.

 

For us it's that Osuna, Sanchez and Cecil , who have all closed at least a little bit.

[THANOS]

read the article, lol

 

Ah, the currency discrepancy logic for payroll increase, damn.

[Jonn]

Its adorable that people ever thought Heyward was even an option.

[Jonn]

Do you think they should trade Hutchison? If they could get a decent prospect for him and then just sign Colon that could be a great idea IMO. If Hutch doesn't start in the rotation they should probably just deal him to a rebuilding or low budget team.

 

No for the same reasons many others brought up. His value is in the tank. However if you can find a trade to your liking you always take it. I jokingly brought up Arizona. They tend to make aggressive and stupid decesions. It will be interesting if the Blue Jays even see him as a starter anymore. Perhaps that's why Shapiro brought his name up. I think its very odd he would be brought up at all. But the way he was used at the end of last year doesn't seem like they are high on him at all. He pitched the throw away game in Baltimore where he was getting pelted with rain and the lumber. No team puts out a player they value highly in those conditions.

[burlingtonbandit]

 

yikes

[Candy Maldonado]

lol @ came hard

[Spanky99]

 

Just saw him say this on SN... colour me

[Stangstag]

 

yikes

 

Why yikes?