JA Happ Signing: Good/Bad?

[Angrioter]

Steamer thinks JA Happ is worth...

 

2.0 * 8 = 16

1.5 * 8.64 = 12.96

1.0 * 9.33 = 9.33

+

=

$38.29 million

 

Contextual evidence also offers that he probably has a better than average chance of over-performing his projections.

 

2.5 Wins

2.0 Wins

1.7 wins

[o2cui2i]

Steamer thinks JA Happ is worth...

 

2.0 * 8 = 16

1.5 * 8.64 = 12.96

1.0 * 9.33 = 9.33

+

=

$38.29 million

 

Contextual evidence also offers that he probably has a better than average chance of over-performing his projections.

 

thank you. more interesting with what is expected=$ value than simple that's too much arguments. Cost/WAR. aren't most deals close to perceived WAR value?

[Laika]

2.5 Wins

2.0 Wins

1.7 wins

 

That type of talent bumps you up into the Wei-Yin Chen / Jeff Samardzija, 5 year deal territory though.

[Laika]

aren't most deals close to perceived WAR value?

 

Of course. Baseball is a sophisticated sport.

 

You still see the odd sizeable deviation between FA cost and talent, though. Especially on very big and very small contracts.

[o2cui2i]

Of course. Baseball is a sophisticated sport.

 

You still see the odd sizeable deviation between FA cost and talent, though. Especially on very big and very small contracts.

 

some of the ten year deals have been insanely stupid no matter how you look at them. How much did Pujols get, 240M? does he own the Angels now? that's insane money.

 

I get a two year over pay to out weight someone trying to get a 3 or 4 year deal. pay a little more for two instead of getting stuck with s***** back end performance.

[o2cui2i]

we have some guys on very team friendly deals. when those deals are up it will cost a lot more to replace the performance. ie EE and Jose.

[GoJays]

some of the ten year deals have been insanely stupid no matter how you look at them. How much did Pujols get, 240M? does he own the Angels now? that's insane money.

 

I get a two year over pay to out weight someone trying to get a 3 or 4 year deal. pay a little more for two instead of getting stuck with s***** back end performance.

 

Any 10 year deal even for a young guy like Heyward is insanely stupid. Pujols, and Cano are just the latest.

[o2cui2i]

Any 10 year deal even for a young guy like Heyward is insanely stupid. Pujols, and Cano are just the latest.

 

a 10 year deal to a guy in his 30s is completely out there. you have to know the production is not going to be there for all ten and there is no way to sell that kind of s***** deal.

 

A 25 year old who is like say Stanton for 10 is not as bad, but unlikely to yield a good $/ WAR the last years of the deal, but he got Signed thru 2027, 13 yrs/$325M on a national league team. so he might be a bench bat the last 5 years? That's insane.

[dineke]

Any 10 year deal even for a young guy like Heyward is insanely stupid. Pujols, and Cano are just the latest.

 

I don't know if it's smart to give Heyward a 10 year deal but they were in their 30s when they got their contracts. You telling me you wouldn't have given Pujols or Cano a 10 year contract when they were 25?

[vilifyingforce]

a 10 year deal to a guy in his 30s is completely out there. you have to know the production is not going to be there for all ten and there is no way to sell that kind of s***** deal.

 

A 25 year old who is like say Stanton for 10 is not as bad, but unlikely to yield a good $/ WAR the last years of the deal, but he got Signed thru 2027, 13 yrs/$325M on a national league team. so he might be a bench bat the last 5 years? That's insane.

 

You think Stanton is going to be a bench bat when he's 33?

[o2cui2i]

You think Stanton is going to be a bench bat when he's 33?

 

depends on how it goes with his injuries. he has a few bad ones the last 2 years. but he probably wont get his face broken by a HBP again. it's really hard to predict performance for 13 years

[L54]

If Stanton is still alive at 33 he will be a major league starter somewhere.

[Angrioter]

If Stanton is still alive at 33 he will be a major league starter somewhere.

 

Yeah, Ala Grady Sizemore

[Spanky99]

we have some guys on very team friendly deals. when those deals are up it will cost a lot more to replace the performance. ie EE and Jose.

 

Wiped off the plate, obviously, how they replace that remains to be seen?

[Spanky99]

Any 10 year deal even for a young guy like Heyward is insanely stupid. Pujols, and Cano are just the latest.

 

Heyward, would never be dumn.

[Spanky99]

depends on how it goes with his injuries. he has a few bad ones the last 2 years. but he probably wont get his face broken by a HBP again. it's really hard to predict performance for 13 years

 

Just stop, guys like Heyward and Stanton are totally worth it. Nice carrot you throw out about a HBP in the face, you didn't even cling onto Heyward, getting hit in the face, too.

 

Compilation... o2's dumn.

[BTS]

Just stop, guys like Heyward and Stanton are totally worth it. Nice carrot you throw out about a HBP in the face, you didn't even cling onto Heyward, getting hit in the face, too.

 

Compilation... o2's dumn.

 

I don't think I'd give $200M to Heyward. Too much risk wrapped in one guy. There are probably <5 players I'd give that much money to.

[Spanky99]

I don't think I'd give $200M to Heyward. Too much risk wrapped in one guy. There are probably <5 players I'd give that much money to.

 

Name them?

[BTS]

Name them?

 

Trout, Harper, Kershaw, Stanton

[baubau]

There are probably <5 players I'd give that much money to.

 

What names you have in mind? I only have Trout, Harper for sure with Bryant and Machado on the cusps. Not many for sure. While I would agree that I'd be risk averse on giving Heyward that contract, I wouldn't hate it either.

 

E: Thanks Spank.^

[GD]

Trout, Harper, Kershaw, Stanton

 

Machado, Bryant?

[o2cui2i]

Trout, Harper, Kershaw, Stanton

 

could you imagine stanton in the middle of the jays lineup this year, but he's not going to get traded this year

[ElNik2013]

It seems like the Jays' front office was at least partly right in what they saw in Happ when they traded for him at the 2012 trade deadline.

 

I also seem to remember increased velocity during the 2014 season and talk of a different release point.

 

 

I often misremember though so who knows.

[Spanky99]

Trout, Harper, Kershaw, Stanton

 

Oh, guys that aren't available, gotcha.

[Frenchsoup]

Correa

[BTS]

Machado, Bryant?

 

Yeah, Bryant and Correa if we're talking pre-arb guys. Not sure about Machado. I don't trust him to stay healthy.

[Spanky99]

s***, even then it's slim pickings.

[Spanky99]

So we're adding extensions to rookies too, keeps changing, f*** OFF!

[Laika]

I don't think I'd give $200M to Heyward. Too much risk wrapped in one guy. There are probably <5 players I'd give that much money to.

 

Heyward will only be 26 next year. He is probably a top 10 projected position player by WAR.

 

We would expect him to approach 5 WAR in 2016, actually get better in 2017, and then stay basically that good for a year or two before decline kicks in.

 

Which is to say that in year TEN of a Heyward contract, we might expect him to still be a league average player, or thereabouts.

 

You could pay Jason Heyward $200M and actually expect to get a massive surplus on that deal.

 

[table=width: 500]

[tr]

[td]WAR[/td]

[td]$/WAR[/td]

[td]VALUE[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]4.7[/td]

[td]8[/td]

[td]37.6[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]4.95[/td]

[td]8.56[/td]

[td]42.37[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]4.95[/td]

[td]9.25[/td]

[td]45.76[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]4.45[/td]

[td]9.98[/td]

[td]44.43[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]3.95[/td]

[td]10.78[/td]

[td]42.59[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]3.45[/td]

[td]11.65[/td]

[td]40.18[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]2.95[/td]

[td]12.58[/td]

[td]37.10[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]2.45[/td]

[td]13.58[/td]

[td]33.28[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]1.95[/td]

[td]14.67[/td]

[td]28.61[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]1.45[/td]

[td]15.84[/td]

[td]22.97[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Surplus[/td]

[td][/td]

[td]374.90[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

 

Even if you take out inflation entirely and have a static $/WAR of 8M for the next ten years, he still comes out to like $282M in value.

 

It's just so rare to have a guy that good and young hit free agency. Any GM that maxed out their budget in the last couple of years on a pitcher in their 30s should be pulling their hair out of frustration from putting themselves out of the Heyward sweepstakes.

[Cyborg]

I don't think I'd give $200M to Heyward. Too much risk wrapped in one guy. There are probably <5 players I'd give that much money to.

$200 over 10 years would be a no brainer IMO. Heyward is the most "well rounded" player in baseball, and that may lead to better aging. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/who-is-baseballs-most-well-rounded-position-player/