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Josh Donaldson [Extend Him?]

BTS

By BTS
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

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How much are you willing to commit to Josh Donaldson?  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. How much are you willing to commit to Josh Donaldson?

    • 8 seasons, $160MM
      7
    • 9 seasons, $200MM
      3
    • Nothing... he's already under control for a while, just go year-to-year.
      13

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BTS GOAT

BTS

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Projected to earn about 12M in arbitration this year entering his age-30 season. Is now the time to try to get him on a long-term extension? He has a clean record of health, and a skill set that should age pretty well. He'd probably be looking at 8 guaranteed years, taking him through his age-37 season. Would you go to 8/160 with him? Would he be amenable?
Boxcar All-Star

Boxcar

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Projected to earn about 12M in arbitration this year entering his age-30 season. Is now the time to try to get him on a long-term extension? He has a clean record of health, and a skill set that should age pretty well. He'd probably looking at 8 guaranteed years, taking him through his age-37 season. Would you go to 8/160 with him? Would he be amenable?

 

Seems a bit light, no? I'd think it would take maybe 8/200.

BTS GOAT

BTS

Community Moderator
Posted
  • Author
Posted
Seems a bit light, no? I'd think it would take maybe 8/200.

 

Maybe. He'll hit free agency at 33, and still has 3 arb years remaining, which should suppress his cost a bit.

Swervin81 Draft Eligible

Swervin81

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Last year was the time to give him a 6 year extension. Now, you'd really have to break the bank and almost give him 7+ years for a guy that's gonna be near 40 when that contract is up. Not sure that's wise. Just take it year by year. Our window with this current core might only have 3 years left anyways in all likelihood.

 

I mean, Pujols and Cano got insane deals in their 30's. Someone would break the bank if he was a UFA this year.

z3r0s FCL Blue Jays

z3r0s

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Seems a bit light, no? I'd think it would take maybe 8/200.

 

Wouldn't go that high. Economics are different for a player that was that old when he broke out. He'll be entering his age 33 season when he reaches FA.

Dr. Dinger GOAT

Dr. Dinger

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

We all good with this?

 

[TABLE=width: 328]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]Age[/TD]

[TD]Salary[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2016[/TD]

[TD=align: right]30[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$13,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2017[/TD]

[TD=align: right]31[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$17,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2018[/TD]

[TD=align: right]32[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$20,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2019[/TD]

[TD=align: right]33[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2020[/TD]

[TD=align: right]34[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2021[/TD]

[TD=align: right]35[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2022[/TD]

[TD=align: right]36[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2023[/TD]

[TD=align: right]37[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2024[/TD]

[TD=align: right]38[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD=align: right]$200,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

burlingtonbandit New Hampshire Fisher Cats

burlingtonbandit

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Can't see him singing for 8 years at only 160. If he waits it out he probably gets 12-20-30 which would be 62 million for 3 years.

 

As a FA at 33 you have to think his market value would be 30-35 million per season. If he were to sign 5 years he should get at least $150 million.

 

Maybe you offer him 6/150 now and see if he takes it?

Dr. Dinger GOAT

Dr. Dinger

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Wouldn't go that high. Economics are different for a player that was that old when he broke out. He'll be entering his age 33 season when he reaches FA.

 

Basically you're just paying him what he'd get in arb anyway, except by committing to it up front, we get the privilege of locking up his age 33-38 seasons @ $25M per, which will probably actually below well below market value by then.

Boxcar All-Star

Boxcar

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
We all good with this?

 

[TABLE=width: 328]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]Age[/TD]

[TD]Salary[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2016[/TD]

[TD=align: right]30[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$13,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2017[/TD]

[TD=align: right]31[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$17,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2018[/TD]

[TD=align: right]32[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$20,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2019[/TD]

[TD=align: right]33[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2020[/TD]

[TD=align: right]34[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2021[/TD]

[TD=align: right]35[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2022[/TD]

[TD=align: right]36[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2023[/TD]

[TD=align: right]37[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2024[/TD]

[TD=align: right]38[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD=align: right]$200,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Probably come out in the black on that deal overall but the last couple years probably won't be pretty. Tough to say.

BTS GOAT

BTS

Community Moderator
Posted
  • Author
Posted
We all good with this?

 

[TABLE=width: 328]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]Age[/TD]

[TD]Salary[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2016[/TD]

[TD=align: right]30[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$13,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2017[/TD]

[TD=align: right]31[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$17,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2018[/TD]

[TD=align: right]32[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$20,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2019[/TD]

[TD=align: right]33[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2020[/TD]

[TD=align: right]34[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2021[/TD]

[TD=align: right]35[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2022[/TD]

[TD=align: right]36[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2023[/TD]

[TD=align: right]37[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2024[/TD]

[TD=align: right]38[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD=align: right]$200,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

I'd do it. I wouldn't love it, but I'd do it.

nmrch Draft Eligible

nmrch

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Seems a bit light, no? I'd think it would take maybe 8/200.

 

Lets say he would have earned $50 million in arbitration(12-16-22), would he really get a 5 year 150 million dollar contract for his ages 34-39 seasons ?

 

We're probably better off taking it year by year, lets see how he ages in the next three seasons.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Hard to say without knowing whether or not he'll show up to spring training with that top knot in 2016
Dr. Dinger GOAT

Dr. Dinger

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I'd do it. I wouldn't love it, but I'd do it.

 

Tough to complain about locking in a megastar at approximately $5M/WAR.

 

[TABLE=width: 444]

[TR]

[TD]

Year

[/TD]

[TD]

Age

[/TD]

[TD]

Salary

[/TD]

[TD]

WAR

[/TD]

[TD]

$/WAR

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2016

[/TD]

[TD]

30

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$13,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

$1,857,142.86

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2017

[/TD]

[TD]

31

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$17,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

6.5

[/TD]

[TD]

$2,615,384.62

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2018

[/TD]

[TD]

32

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$20,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

$3,333,333.33

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2019

[/TD]

[TD]

33

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$25,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

5.5

[/TD]

[TD]

$4,545,454.55

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2020

[/TD]

[TD]

34

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$25,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

$5,000,000.00

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2021

[/TD]

[TD]

35

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$25,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

4.5

[/TD]

[TD]

$5,555,555.56

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2022

[/TD]

[TD]

36

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$25,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

$6,250,000.00

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2023

[/TD]

[TD]

37

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$25,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

3.5

[/TD]

[TD]

$7,142,857.14

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2024

[/TD]

[TD]

38

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$25,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

$8,333,333.33

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$200,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

45

[/TD]

[TD]

$4,444,444.44

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

nmrch Draft Eligible

nmrch

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Can't see him singing for 8 years at only 160. If he waits it out he probably gets 12-20-30 which would be 62 million for 3 years.

 

As a FA at 33 you have to think his market value would be 30-35 million per season. If he were to sign 5 years he should get at least $150 million.

 

Maybe you offer him 6/150 now and see if he takes it?

 

I think your arbitration numbers are way off, David Price this past spring just set the year 4 record at $19.75 million. His arbitration salaries will be closer to 12-16-22. Arbitration is all about precedents, player skill is not the only factor, what you "deserve" is irrelevant

 

And 35 million a season at 34 is also probably off, age plays a huge factor in FA, he won't get that amount.

burlingtonbandit New Hampshire Fisher Cats

burlingtonbandit

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I think your arbitration numbers are way off, David Price this past spring just set the year 4 record at $19.75 million

 

Yeah you are probably right. I could see him getting $25 million in arb. if he keeps producing though. Inflation is going up a lot.

KingKat All-Star

KingKat

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
We all good with this?

 

[TABLE=width: 328]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]Age[/TD]

[TD]Salary[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2016[/TD]

[TD=align: right]30[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$13,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2017[/TD]

[TD=align: right]31[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$17,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2018[/TD]

[TD=align: right]32[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$20,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2019[/TD]

[TD=align: right]33[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2020[/TD]

[TD=align: right]34[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2021[/TD]

[TD=align: right]35[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2022[/TD]

[TD=align: right]36[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2023[/TD]

[TD=align: right]37[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2024[/TD]

[TD=align: right]38[/TD]

[TD=align: right]$25,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD=align: right]$200,000,000.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Six consecutive 25 million dollar years, age 34 through 38? For a player who isn't even on the open market? No way in hell I do that.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Six consecutive 25 million dollar years, age 34 through 38? For a player who isn't even on the open market? No way in hell I do that.

 

Yeah I agree. They already have Donaldson's best years under control. There shouldn't really be a huge push to get the tail end of his career under control too.

 

Teams do this all the time with in-house stars and then regret it. They don't seem to realize that there might be a correct time to just say goodbye to a star player.

 

Even if you do want to keep Donaldson until he gets arthritis, this is also the WORST possible time to buy in. He's about to win the f***ing MVP award! Just be patient and wait for a slightly better time to purchase six old years of JD

Dr. Dinger GOAT

Dr. Dinger

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Yeah I agree. They already have Donaldson's best years under control. There shouldn't really be a huge push to get the tail end of his career under control too.

 

Teams do this all the time with in-house stars and then regret it. They don't seem to realize that there might be a correct time to just say goodbye to a star player.

 

Even if you do want to keep Donaldson until he gets arthritis, this is also the WORST possible time to buy in. He's about to win the f***ing MVP award! Just be patient and wait for a slightly better time to purchase six old years of JD

 

I actually totally agree with this. Signing a player to an extension coming off (what in all likelihood is) a career year seems like a great way to pay more than you have to. Didn't we do that with Wells?

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Tough to complain about locking in a megastar at approximately $5M/WAR.

 

[TABLE=width: 444]

[TR]

[TD]

Year

[/TD]

[TD]

Age

[/TD]

[TD]

Salary

[/TD]

[TD]

WAR

[/TD]

[TD]

$/WAR

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2016

[/TD]

[TD]

30

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$13,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

$1,857,142.86

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2017

[/TD]

[TD]

31

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$17,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

6.5

[/TD]

[TD]

$2,615,384.62

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2018

[/TD]

[TD]

32

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$20,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

$3,333,333.33

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2019

[/TD]

[TD]

33

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$25,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

5.5

[/TD]

[TD]

$4,545,454.55

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2020

[/TD]

[TD]

34

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$25,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

$5,000,000.00

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2021

[/TD]

[TD]

35

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$25,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

4.5

[/TD]

[TD]

$5,555,555.56

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2022

[/TD]

[TD]

36

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$25,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

$6,250,000.00

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2023

[/TD]

[TD]

37

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$25,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

3.5

[/TD]

[TD]

$7,142,857.14

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2024

[/TD]

[TD]

38

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$25,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

$8,333,333.33

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$200,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

45

[/TD]

[TD]

$4,444,444.44

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

[TABLE=width: 444]

[TR]

[TD]

Year

[/TD]

[TD]

Age

[/TD]

[TD]

Salary

[/TD]

[TD]

WAR

[/TD]

[TD]

$/WAR

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2016

[/TD]

[TD]

30

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$13,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

$1,857,142.86

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2017

[/TD]

[TD]

31

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$17,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

6.5

[/TD]

[TD]

$2,615,384.62

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]

2018

[/TD]

[TD]

32

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

$20,000,000.00

[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

$3,333,333.33

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

This is pretty sweet on its own though.

burlingtonbandit New Hampshire Fisher Cats

burlingtonbandit

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I actually totally agree with this. Signing a player to an extension coming off (what in all likelihood is) a career year seems like a great way to pay more than you have to. Didn't we do that with Wells?

 

Flip side is if he has a bad year you likely won't want to extend him either. Say he has a 5 win season, is the price going to come down a ton in the player's view? He will then be 2 years away from FA and may just want to wait it out as he gets closer and closer to FA.

BTS GOAT

BTS

Community Moderator
Posted
  • Author
Posted
I actually totally agree with this. Signing a player to an extension coming off (what in all likelihood is) a career year seems like a great way to pay more than you have to. Didn't we do that with Wells?

 

There's probably a window for getting him to forego free agency. There's probably no chance he does it two years from now, and less of a chance next year.

HERPDERP Vancouver Canadians

HERPDERP

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

There is no way you gave Donaldson a fair market deal.

 

He has what, 2-3 more years of arbitration? There is no rush for the Jays to sign him to a long-term deal.

CHRIS FCL Blue Jays

CHRIS

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I wouldn't extend him at this point.

 

What if he starts dating Miss America, then gets dumped by Miss America, then due to his constant collapsing and weeping, buggers both knees?

 

No, no, no. Fool me once.

BTS GOAT

BTS

Community Moderator
Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
I don't support the updating of titles. Now everyone thinks I'm one of those poll-starting types. Edited by BTS
Frenchsoup FCL Blue Jays

Frenchsoup

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Basically you're just paying him what he'd get in arb anyway, except by committing to it up front, we get the privilege of locking up his age 33-38 seasons @ $25M per, which will probably actually below well below market value by then.

 

This is why you don't do it.

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