Run differential vs. Variance re: Winning Probability

[yale305]

Long time follower, first time poster. Just hope to share some of my thought on the topic "whether a smaller run differential with a lower variance could lead to a higher winning percentage", assuming that variance can be indeed manipulated:

 

Imagine:

Team A: run scored = averaging 4 runs with a variance of +/- 0.2, run given up = averaging 3 runs with a variance of +/- 0.2.

Team B: run scored = averaging 5 runs with a variance of +/- 2, run given up = averaging 3 runs with a variance of +/- 2

 

It is likely that team A would win more often, albeit with a smaller run differential, due to the smaller area of overlap between the "run scored" curve and the "run given up" curve.

[AdamGreenwood]

Sure, in theory that's possible.

 

Winning two games by a one run margin, and losing one by an eight run margin, is better than winning one game by 20 runs, and losing two by a single run.

But the issue is how do you manipulate it?

 

Here are a couple of ways

Also, there are a lot of late game situations when tactical moves (sacrifices) increase the chance of scoring one additional run, at the expense of scoring multiple runs.

And intentionally walking a batter has the opposite effect. It lessens the chance of giving up a single run while increasing the chance of giving up multiple runs.

[Jayzfan79]

win the first game 10-2 and lose the next 3 2-1. run differential dictates 13RF vs 8RA. just looking at the RF and RA vs the 1-3 record...what would u think?

[intrigid]

"Small ball" is a factor in teams ability to win 1 run games and outperform their expected W/L record. To what extent teams can do this, I don't know.

[Olerud363]

"Small ball" is a factor in teams ability to win 1 run games and outperform their expected W/L record. To what extent teams can do this, I don't know.

 

As a general philosaphy I don't believe teams should get this clever...

 

See ball, hit ball, take walk, strike out guy, catch ball, don't walk guy,

 

if you are old you get worse -- if you are young you get better -- if you hit in minors you will hit in majors but not quite as much. Luck evens out.

 

That's all -- no need for any advanced stats if you can keep track of it all some other way -- advanced stats just make it easier to do the accounting.

[Olerud363]

If you hit well in Colorado you will hit in other places, but not as much

 

If you hit well in San Francisco you will hit really well other places.

 

No need for park factors beyond that

[Olerud363]

Read baseball america scouting reports - draft guy

Read baseball america scouting reports - draft guy

Read baseball america scouting reports - draft guy

 

Trade all guys for old(er) guy??? WIN! WIN! WIN! -- Win again next year?? Not sure about that part yet.

[RealAccountant]

The Key is building a team that suits your ball park. Royals have a lineup that doesn't strike out a lot and a pitching core that strikes out a lot of hitters.

 

Its suits there bugger ball park

[intrigid]

As a general philosaphy I don't believe teams should get this clever...

 

See ball, hit ball, take walk, strike out guy, catch ball, don't walk guy, .

 

If you're down by 1 run in the 9th, and you have 2nd and 3rd and nobody out, and a lights out closer coming out. To suggest that shouldn't affect your strategy is ridiculous.

 

If your philosophy is "our team win score tons of runs, prevent plenty of runs, that should get us enough wins over the course of a season", then that's a perfect recipe for making it to the playoffs and exiting early.

[candymartinez]

The Key is building a team that suits your ball park. Royals have a lineup that doesn't strike out a lot and a pitching core that strikes out a lot of hitters.

 

Its suits there bugger ball park

 

That suits any ballpark.

[Olerud363]

If you're down by 1 run in the 9th, and you have 2nd and 3rd and nobody out, and a lights out closer coming out. To suggest that shouldn't affect your strategy is ridiculous.

 

If your philosophy is "our team win score tons of runs, prevent plenty of runs, that should get us enough wins over the course of a season", then that's a perfect recipe for making it to the playoffs and exiting early.

 

Even small teams rarely bunt with guys on second or third. Royals won it last night on a sac-fly.

 

The best percentage play in that case was to hit and hope for the fly ball... it took two bad strike calls, and some wicked pitches to crush our hopes.

 

If they bunted with Goins it could of turned bad any number of ways.

[baloojayz]

I said this all season long, only to be ridiculed. You cannot argue it showed bigtime with guys on base and none out. There is no excuse for Goins and Revere not being able to competently bunt. Pompey, who has been lethal on the bases, got himself to third with none out and didn't come home. They didn't even try to steal 2B (1st and 3rd no one out) so Pompey could have attempted to come home on the throw over.

 

KC came ready to play, their experience showed.

 

Hindsight is always 20/20, hope we learn and come back stronger next year like KC did.

[baloojayz]

As a general philosaphy I don't believe teams should get this clever...

 

See ball, hit ball, take walk, strike out guy, catch ball, don't walk guy,

 

if you are old you get worse -- if you are young you get better -- if you hit in minors you will hit in majors but not quite as much. Luck evens out.

 

That's all -- no need for any advanced stats if you can keep track of it all some other way -- advanced stats just make it easier to do the accounting.

 

Works well in the regular season

[Olerud363]

Works well in the regular season

 

If you look over history all kinds of different teams have won the world series.

 

Afterwards people come up with a narrative about why they won. The last time the Jays won the world series they had a great hitting team, and won all their games with 8 or more runs.

 

This team can win the world series they just need more luck. Or you can trade one of our sluggers for 3 scouts and a professional bunter... but that won't help.

[Olerud363]

I said this all season long, only to be ridiculed. You cannot argue it showed bigtime with guys on base and none out. There is no excuse for Goins and Revere not being able to competently bunt. Pompey, who has been lethal on the bases, got himself to third with none out and didn't come home. They didn't even try to steal 2B (1st and 3rd no one out) so Pompey could have attempted to come home on the throw over.

 

KC came ready to play, their experience showed.

 

Hindsight is always 20/20, hope we learn and come back stronger next year like KC did.

 

Pillar did steal second... That 9th inning is a blur... but he stole second... I don't think they threw but can't remember for sure.

[Nexii]

Variance isn't controllable. I'm sure if you went around the league you'd find the RS/RA variances are close for all teams. People just want to believe their own team has a higher variance and that they can somehow 'control' close games. Jays were just unlucky this year, that's all.