What do you think the 2016 Budget will be?

[Rusty_Savage]

That's quite a lot for Estrada. I am hoping 3/30 can get it done since he has a chance to be on a competitive team those 3 years.

 

3/30 won't get it done. With the way he performed in the playoffs your probably looking at 3/42ish

[BigCecil]

That's quite a lot for Estrada. I am hoping 3/30 can get it done since he has a chance to be on a competitive team those 3 years.

 

I think CHP prevail with Marco. I remember when we let Villanueva walk for 2/10. Estrada is more accomplished for sure, but the emotion of his unbelievable starts in the post season needs to be left at the door. Id love to see him come back for the right deal, but he lives on the edge all the time with little margin for error.

 

He is the type of fly ball pitcher with reliance on spotting a 90 MPH FB who could easily regress from being close to this season.

[GreekFatAss]

Imagine if they did the unthinkable thing and put us as a team to the tax threshold, all the possibilities we would have on revamping this team in the offseason.

[Boxcar]

3/30 won't get it done. With the way he performed in the playoffs your probably looking at 3/42ish

 

His playoff performance will play a very small role. Insignificant, if you like.

[canadiansportsjunkie]

I doubt we are able to sign Estrada or Price sadly. However I do believe AA will bring in a solid #2 and bullpen help.

[TheHurl]

Rogers/Blue Jays have the option of asking MLB to help out with the currency exchange. IIRC they turned it down a number of years ago, but with the exchange as bad as it is I hope they ask for it again.

 

That option was removed in the last CBA i think

[TheHurl]

His playoff performance will play a very small role. Insignificant, if you like.

 

do you honestly believe that? Panda???? James Shields??? I'd say that the playoffs was a factor in earning both of them a 10 to 20% gain or loss.

[Boxcar]

do you honestly believe that? Panda???? James Shields??? I'd say that the playoffs was a factor in earning both of them a 10 to 20% gain or loss.

 

He had what, 3 starts? Yeah, I don't see that having much of an impact but then he was just as good during the season.

[BigCecil]

do you honestly believe that? Panda???? James Shields??? I'd say that the playoffs was a factor in earning both of them a 10 to 20% gain or loss.

 

Good examples. Somebody may pay a premium for that...but we shouldn't go there.

[fatcowxlive]

3 for 40 is about what it will take to get him. so maybe 16 million for year 1 and 12M per year for years 2 and 3.

 

I would hope 3/30M would be the max to get Estrada

[Spanky99]

I'm hoping it'll be around 150.

[Trouba95]

160 imo

[Candide]

what do you guys think the fan conversion will be for the Jays' regular season in 2016? it's easy to commit to $140-150M USD if we see 85-90% sold out capacity next season for 81 games at the Rogers Center. For some reason, I just don't see that happening, even if the Jays are playing .580-.600 ball next season. I'd venture to guess around 30-33K per game between April-July, and roughly 40K for August with sellouts happening in late-August onwards, assuming that this team is playoff bound from the onset of the season.

[burlingtonbandit]

I would hope 3/30M would be the max to get Estrada

 

From MLBTR:

 

One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.” Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock. The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.

 

I don't think he gets that much especially if he gets the QO but I can see him getting $45 million

[burlingtonbandit]

what do you guys think the fan conversion will be for the Jays' regular season in 2016? it's easy to commit to $140-150M USD if we see 85-90% sold out capacity next season for 81 games at the Rogers Center. For some reason, I just don't see that happening, even if the Jays are playing .580-.600 ball next season. I'd venture to guess around 30-33K per game between April-July, and roughly 40K for August with sellouts happening in late-August onwards, assuming that this team is playoff bound from the onset of the season.

 

I think all the weekend games will be sold out the entire season if they do well. Weekday games in the early part of the season I'll estimate around 25-30K. In the Summer I would think they will average 40K/night.

 

I think I read they have an extra 5K season seats for next year already and when you factor in how many people bought playoff tickets and probably will forget to get the non-played games refunded there will be a lot of people buying flex packs.

[Candide]

I think all the weekend games will be sold out the entire season if they do well. Weekday games in the early part of the season I'll estimate around 25-30K. In the Summer I would think they will average 40K/night.

 

I think I read they have an extra 5K season seats for next year already and when you factor in how many people bought playoff tickets and probably will forget to get the non-played games refunded there will be a lot of people buying flex packs.

 

that sounds sensible. i wonder what the net profit would be for the increase in attendance (factoring in ticket prices, concessions, etc.) and whether that can make the difference between signing two starting pitchers as opposed to one.

[burlingtonbandit]

that sounds sensible. i wonder what the net profit would be for the increase in attendance (factoring in ticket prices, concessions, etc.) and whether that can make the difference between signing two starting pitchers as opposed to one.

 

Whatever the profit was on tickets, concessions probably pales in comparison to the money made off the TV ratings. The Blue Jays average TV ratings for the season were up 68% over the 2014 season. That doesn't even count the 11 postseason games where the Jays averaged over 3 million viewers per game.

 

So say the Jays TV contract was worth $80 Million last year, once you factor in the playoff games you could argue the Tv contract was worth double that. Thats 80 million in extra revenue just from the TV broadcast which doesn't even factor in how much extra money Sportsnet.ca gets etc etc...

 

And the best part since Rogers owns SN is that they can sign a below market value TV deal and it wouldn't be subject to revenue sharing like other MLB teams.

 

So when people on here say that the MLB payroll will likely stay the same I think people would be very mad if Rogers didn't kick in that money back into the team.

[Krylian]

120-130.

 

I have no faith in Rogers. Expect them to play the Canadian dollar card.

[fatcowxlive]

From MLBTR:

 

One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.” Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock. The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.

 

I don't think he gets that much especially if he gets the QO but I can see him getting $45 million

 

If there are teams willing to give him that we should give him a QO, hopes he rejects, get a draft pick and move on.

[Praxis]

120-130.

 

I have no faith in Rogers. Expect them to play the Canadian dollar card.

 

There are three things in life that are certain; death, taxes and your Roger's bill going up.

[burlingtonbandit]

If there are teams willing to give him that we should give him a QO, hopes he rejects, get a draft pick and move on.

 

Thats been my stance on it the whole time. Doubt he accepts because he could get a multi year deal even if the AAV is lower.

[fatcowxlive]

Thats been my stance on it the whole time. Doubt he accepts because he could get a multi year deal even if the AAV is lower.

 

I was personally thinking Estrada would take 3/30. Didn't know that there are 5 teams looking to sign him for $12-15MM AAV lmao. I'd still offer him that and see if he takes it, before we make a decision on the QO. If he doesn't, offer the QO and hope he signs elsewhere.

[thatoneguy]

the weak Canadian dollar would certainly play a role. While salaries are I'm USD, the owners will be forking up much more in CAD. I don't think it would be much higher than this year's salary.

 

Man is this sh*t pissing me off. We're starting the offseason two steps behind where we could be because of this.

[fatcowxlive]

the weak Canadian dollar would certainly play a role. While salaries are I'm USD, the owners will be forking up much more in CAD. I don't think it would be much higher than this year's salary.

 

Does it really play a role for a company as big as Rogers? I'm sure they have accounts with USD in case the dollar was to dip as it is now, and other foreign investments as well. I don't think it will that big of a factor.

[fatcowxlive]

Fatcow, that's not what matters. Of course they have some US assets.

 

The issue here is that their Blue Jays related revenue all comes in Canadian dollars. Fans buy tickets in Canadian dollars, advertisers buy ads in Canadian dollars. But they pay their labour in American dollars. That exchange will be costly no matter how exposed the rest of their business is to American dollars. A dollar spent on the Blue Jays doesn't go as far as it would under parity, in terms of marginal expected revenue.

 

Yes that's true but Rogers owns everything related to the team. The station that broadcasts the games, the ballpark, the team, etc. That's major compared to other MLB teams where they have one single owner and that's it. It doesn't compensate for the drop in the Canadian dollar, but the revenue they're seeing should be huge, especially with the post-season run

[500LevelSTH]

Some things to consider...Jays budget will be based on three factors...

 

Season tickets sold (before the start of FA)

TV contract money

Shared revenue plan

 

They can only build a budget based on guaranteed income. When dealing with the USD-CDN they will have to plan on worst case scenario of approx 25%, maybe more maybe less. Cant just say we will $140m without some assurances theres a break even point.

 

Any increase to whatever budget they set will change in season based on performance and addition revenues.

 

Guessing a start In the $140m range...Jays only added 5000 season tickets max, it was 3500 the day postseasons went on sale. Of those, a certain % will think the $500 deposit for seasons was the cost of getting postseason tickets and wont mind saying goodbye to that deposit.

[burlingtonbandit]

Some things to consider...Jays budget will be based on three factors...

 

Season tickets sold (before the start of FA)

TV contract money

Shared revenue plan

 

They can only build a budget based on guaranteed income. When dealing with the USD-CDN they will have to plan on worst case scenario of approx 25%, maybe more maybe less. Cant just say we will $140m without some assurances theres a break even point.

 

Any increase to whatever budget they set will change in season based on performance and addition revenues.

 

Guessing a start In the $140m range...Jays only added 5000 season tickets max, it was 3500 the day postseasons went on sale. Of those, a certain % will think the $500 deposit for seasons was the cost of getting postseason tickets and wont mind saying goodbye to that deposit.

 

Well if they made 80 million$ extra on the TV contract then they easily could afford a $150 million payroll. To be honest I'm fine if the payroll is in the 145 range as long as there aren't holes on the team that are caused by not having enough money in the budget. Put some of the extra revenue toward IFA, Dunedin, Rogers Centre facility improvement etc...

 

Hopefully Shapiro is the guy that can convince Rogers what the Blue Jays need to be successful. Some of the medical equipment inside Rogers Centre is just awful.

[500LevelSTH]

'

Well if they made 80 million$ extra on the TV contract then they easily could afford a $150 million payroll. To be honest I'm fine if the payroll is in the 145 range as long as there aren't holes on the team that are caused by not having enough money in the budget. Put some of the extra revenue toward IFA, Dunedin, Rogers Centre facility improvement etc...

 

Hopefully Shapiro is the guy that can convince Rogers what the Blue Jays need to be successful. Some of the medical equipment inside Rogers Centre is just awful.

 

Im with you. They still have to pay off that NHL contract which only increases every season.

 

Cant wait for spring training, booking flights as soon as the spring sked is finalized

[burlingtonbandit]

'

 

Im with you. They still have to pay off that NHL contract which only increases every season.

 

Cant wait for spring training, booking flights as soon as the spring sked is finalized

 

Im looking to go down for the first time this year. Have you gone down previously? If so, what are some tips on the best time, places to go etc..

[GeorgiaPeach]

Not too far off from what I would think. You could make a case the budget should be in the $160 range with how much money the Jays are making. Top 5 market in MLB.

 

Is that a Top 5 market when things are going good, or all the time?