Statistical shocker regarding LCS home field advantage

[intrigid]

I'm getting a little annoyed by fans shouting "HFA!!!" as if to prove that they were right and Gibby was wrong for backing the jays into the playoffs. Not that know-it-all fans bug me in particular, though they do. But what bugs me the most is that nobody is interested in researching this subject and figuring out what LCS HFA is actually worth. So I did the research myself, and the results might just shock you:

 

Since 1985, when LCS 2-3-2 was introduced, thru 2014, home field advantage has resulted in zero extra home games.

 

That's right, not a single extra hone game has ever been played in the LCS due to the team having the privilege of playing games 1, 2, 6, and 7 at home.

 

So how did I arrive at this conclusion? Turns out all I had to do was break down the series by number of games and count them:

 

4 - 7

5 - 15

6 - 21

7 - 15

 

Four and six game series by definition always result in an equal number of home games for both teams, so we don't even need to look at those. 7 game series always result in one additional game for HFA-advantage, while 5 game series have the opposite effect.

 

And since the number of 7 and 5 game series are the same, they would cancel each other out, and we expect no difference. And indeed there isn't. 167 home games have been played by teams who earned HFA. 167 home games have been played by teams who failed to earn HFA.

 

Of course, none of this suggests that home field isn't an advantage. In the playoffs, the home team wins about 57% of the time:

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/adam-wainwright-derek-jeter-mlb-all-star-game-world-series-home-field-071714

 

And none of this proves that HFA doesn't result in wins, though there's no evidence that the order of home games affects the likelihood of winning at home.

 

It just means that home field advantage doesn't, you know, actually get you more home field games!

 

This speaks more to how fair the 2-3-2 format is, and how it really favors no side in particular.

 

Of course, the exact same principles apply in the world series, but seeing as it's determined by the all star game, it's not such a matter of controversy. And of course, there's always the sentimental value of the deciding WS game guaranteed to be at home.

 

Now, none of this applies to LDS series. There, HFA has +1 home game in both 3 and 5 game series, with a wash in 4 game series. So there will be a significant advantage.

 

In other words, both 1st and 2nd seeds have a true and equal home-related advantage in the postseason, while 3rd and 4th seeds have the disadvantage.

Edited October 20, 2015 by intrigid

[RealAccountant]

its not just about the extra game, its about having the first 2 games

 

not that I read your wall of text anyways./

[Krylian]

Hfa!!!

[intrigid]

its not just about the extra game, its about having the first 2 games

 

not that I read your wall of text anyways./

 

It's OK. I usually don't read others walls of text either. But one thing I mentioned is there's no real evidence that the order of home games changes the likelihood of winning at home.

 

Winning LCS home field advantage is like winning the right to call heads or tails in a football game.

[Krylian]

How many game 7's are played... And how many are won by the home team?

[BTS]

That's actually pretty interesting.

[intrigid]

How many game 7's are played... And how many are won by the home team?

 

 

 

In the 7th game of league championship series (1985-2014), the home team is 10-5.

 

In the 5th game of 5-game LCS in the same period, the home team is 8-7. Remember, that "8" is the team that did not have home field advantage.

[jays_fever]

The home team is also likely going to be the better team

[rydermike]

I would say the benefit is Games 1 and 2. If you can ride into a 2-0 lead from HFA, you have momentum running into the 3 away games, and it puts extra pressure on the other team to win, raising your odds of taking a game or two on the road

[intrigid]

I would say the benefit is Games 1 and 2. If you can ride into a 2-0 lead from HFA,

 

Stop right there. All other things being equal, a random team can expect to go 2-0 a full 25% of the time.

 

Between 1985 and 2014, how often has the home team won the first two games of the LCS?

 

Answer: 22.4% of the time (13 / 58).