General Discussion Thread

[GD]

Aweeeeee yeah!! Thanks peeps. . Excited to be here. Have no idea to write about. Maybe Justin Smoak season in review?

 

you're fired

 

The casual fan isn't entirely aware of Justin Smoak's underlying talent. Maybe you could do a quick piece outlining his glove and how hard he hits the ball (97 mph last I checked).

[NorthOf49]

Justin Smoak would be a great topic. The media thinks that the Jays like Smoak primarily because of his glove, but it's really the breakout potential suggested by his advanced batted ball stats.

[baubau]

Sounds good. I'll get something up shortly.

[baubau]

Hey peeps should have it done by Tuesday night. Quick question, once I have it written how do I post it on breaking blue?

[GD]

Hey peeps should have it done by Tuesday night. Quick question, once I have it written how do I post it on breaking blue?

 

You were signed up for a Wordpress account, right?

[baubau]

You were signed up for a Wordpress account, right?

 

Nou. Didn't get any log in details for a WordPress account.

[GD]

Nou. Didn't get any log in details for a WordPress account.

 

Oi..........

[baubau]

I have it. Sorry! My mistake.

[GD]

Yay! So sign in and you'll see it all there.

[NorthOf49]

GD, are you going to update TIPS (and xxFIP)? I don't know about xSeries. It may not be useful... talk me into it.

 

Anyway, on that note, I was scrolling through Blue Jays Plus as I'm wont to do (I just like seeing what other blogs are putting out), and I came across this paragraph about Chris Colabello:

 

On the season Colabello has a 26.7/46.1/27.2/2.6 batted ball line (LD%/GB/FB/PU), this bodes well for sustaining a high BABIP. Using xBABIP, a formula that accounts for batted ball types Chris Colabello is expected to have a BABIP of around .340. If you were to project his line using his xBABIP, which is non-scientific and in all likely hood quite inaccurate, he would be posting a .281/.326/.461 while a somewhat large decline from his current line it is still good enough for a 117 wRC+. That number could still go up yet due to some adjustments he’s made to counter act a spell where he posted just a league average OPS in June and July. Since early July he made this adjustment to his approach he’s OPS’ing over .900 again.

 

Where did they get those numbers? They read like our stuff but they aren't our specific figures and the source isn't cited. Anyway, the analysis in the article is meaningless. I'm confident that Baubau can crush it with his Smoak piece.

[NorthOf49]

Baubau, when you're finished writing your article, you can post in here and we'll edit it. We usually post first thing in the morning, so if it's done late on Tuesday then 8-9 am Wednesday would be a good publishing time.

[GD]

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine

 

@North let's do something like this. We were gonna do trade value anyway.

[NorthOf49]

GD, that would be a useful extension, sure. Feel free to create a thread where we can keep track of these ideas. Including article ideas. I have a bunch of ideas but can't get to them all and it would probably foster idea generation too if we shared.

[NorthOf49]

Publishing tomorrow morning:

 

Aaron Sanchez Approaches Batters Differently As A Reliever

http://www.breakingblue.ca/?p=3053

 

(My first R non-scatterplot graphics in post)

[NorthOf49]

GD, any thought of re-starting Bird Seed? We could really use a regular bullet points post that runs down the Jays news and offers some saber-inclined opinion. Include links to other Jays blogs; it seems that if you include them in your links posts, they start to include you in theirs.

[baubau]

Hey guys, this is what I have so far. Let me know if there is anything else you want me to touch on. I don't know if you want me to expand on his defense or just keep it focus on his hitting. I was thinking about how "clutch" he has been but I hate that stat.

 

---

 

Can He Really Smoak It?

 

Originally noticed by scouts whom were initially looking at his teammate and friend, Matt Wieters, Justin Smoak became a top 5 rated talent in the 2008 draft due to his ability to hit and hit for power. Taken 11th overall by the Rangers, Smoak continued to impress in the minors with his bat, being ranked by Baseball America in the Ranger’s organization in having best power, best strike zone discipline and best hitter for average. He was so highly regarded he was the main piece in the Cliff Lee trade from Seattle to Texas.

 

Looking at his Major League career so far, it has been a disappointment in terms of his ability. Some could be wondering, where did his ability to hit and hit for power go? In actuality it may have not gone anywhere. The overall popular stats used by many such as batting average does not reflect well on Smoak, career .224 hitter, however the advanced statistics show a different story.

 

Justin Smoak has hit the ball hard. Really, really hard. Smoak’s quality of contact stat for Hard% is 37.3%, good for 33rd in the league for players with over 100 PA and just behind Tulowitzki (37.8%) for the team lead. The stat represents the percentage of a hitter’s batted ball that have been hit with authority and while there is no guarantee, it is more likely that a hard hit ball will fall for hit than not.

 

Smoak batted ball distance has also increased each year since 2011:

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/fantasy/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Justin-Smoak-Distance-Trend.png

Image per fangraphs.

 

He hits it hard and he hits it far.

 

Smoak also has not lost his plate discipline. He has a relatively high strikeout at a career 22.7% K, to be expended from a power hitter, he also has a respectable career 10.6% BB. For his career his 0-Swing% has been 27.5% and steadily declined over the past 3 years from 29.2% - 2013, 27.8% - 2014 and 25.2% - 2015. He is chasing less pitches outside the zone, but mind you there is understandably some discrepancy in this data as in 2013 he had nearly twice as many PA as 2014 and 2015.

 

So what has prevented Smoak from consistently displaying his ability? Part of it did have to do with his park, Safeco Fields in Seattle. It is a pitcher friendly ball park where most fly balls are caught and don’t leave the park. He had a 15.4% xHR/FB vs actual 9.7% HR/FB rate and low BABIP, .238 at home. He is also close to an extreme pull hitter at a career 49% - Pull %, 32.1% - Cent % and 18.9% - Oppo %. He doesn’t hit many the other way, making him easy to defend with the shift. As shown by his spray chart below vs RHP, as he is predominantly a LHH, most of his hits are towards 2B.

 

http://i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac23/jessieg235813/Smokey_zps3nopfhki.png

 

He has been trending overall in the right direction as far as has Oppo % as it has steadily increased over the past 3 years 17.3% - 2013, 22.8% - 2014 and 23.2% - 2015.

 

Justin can Smoak it. There is still potential in his bat and while he may never win the batting championship he can likely provide 10-20 HRs over a season while playing great defense at 1B. There is value in that.

Edited August 19, 2015 by baubau

[GD]

That's great baubau. I might adapt that final sentence so as to not lead to any conclusions but it's very strong.

 

GD, any thought of re-starting Bird Seed? We could really use a regular bullet points post that runs down the Jays news and offers some saber-inclined opinion. Include links to other Jays blogs; it seems that if you include them in your links posts, they start to include you in theirs.

 

I see no way I'd be interested in this myself, but I think baubau could do a much better job of it than myself.

[baubau]

That's great baubau. I might adapt that final sentence so as to not lead to any conclusions but it's very strong.

 

Which part? "Won't ever win the batting championship"? And yay, thanks! I wanted to put in more but figured it'd be TOO much stats and didn't want to be repetitive in making same points.

[GD]

No such thing as too much stats Repetitiveness can be helpful but don't OD on it or anything.

[John_Havok]

Which part? "Won't ever win the batting championship"? And yay, thanks! I wanted to put in more but figured it'd be TOO much stats and didn't want to be repetitive in making same points.

 

My only constructive criticism would be to avoid duplicating phrases like "in summary" or starting paragraphs with "So the question is" or stuff like that. In longer articles it's okay since there's lots of space between them, but in short articles it's very noticable. Keep it varied and different to avoid becoming a crutch.

 

And every writer out there is guilty of this. It's just natural to repeat certain phrases that we are familiar with. That's what editors are for after all!

[baubau]

Made some final touches. Added his Pull % stats to note how easy it has been to defend against him with the shift. Just because GD said I could add more stats. He has actually also hit more opposite balls so I missed that in the initial assessment which is positive. I also took your advice John and tried to cut down on the duplicating phrases. If it looks all good to you peeps and I have the green light, I'll go ahead and post it up.

 

E: forgot to mention. I just edited and re-pasted the article up there ^ just in case someone was looking for it.

Edited August 19, 2015 by baubau

[NorthOf49]

I'd probably include a paragraph on his defense. Also, try to put the stats in context better; mention how Smoak compares to other major league hitters. Maybe this could mean a scatter plot comparing K%-BB% (either direct or weighted with HBP using wOBA -- create a quick "production on non-contact PA" stat) and Hard% over the past five seasons. Smoak will perform pretty well in both and you can point out which other players are around him. You mention his hard-hit stats and plate discipline, but then also mention a whole bunch of other stats so the reader will get confused about what's important and think you're just cherrypicking stats that make him look good. The theme is that he has decent discipline and also hits the ball hard.

[baubau]

Coolio. Should have the noted suggestions by tonight.

[baubau]

I'd probably include a paragraph on his defense. Also, try to put the stats in context better; mention how Smoak compares to other major league hitters. Maybe this could mean a scatter plot comparing K%-BB% (either direct or weighted with HBP using wOBA -- create a quick "production on non-contact PA" stat) and Hard% over the past five seasons. Smoak will perform pretty well in both and you can point out which other players are around him. You mention his hard-hit stats and plate discipline, but then also mention a whole bunch of other stats so the reader will get confused about what's important and think you're just cherrypicking stats that make him look good. The theme is that he has decent discipline and also hits the ball hard.

 

Smoak actually didn't perform very well at all. Using that forumla you noted by PM (p.s. clear your inbox). I can use it but its not gong to reflect well. lol

[NorthOf49]

This year he wouldn't because of the strikeouts. Over his career he probably comes out okay. The hard hit stats are what carry him though and are why the Jays keep playing him.

[GD]

Spencer do you have your copy of the book handy? Is there anything useful about how playing part time affects wOBA? I know there was a pinch hitting section

[baubau]

This year he wouldn't because of the strikeouts. Over his career he probably comes out okay. The hard hit stats are what carry him though and are why the Jays keep playing him.

 

He was in the middle of the packish with "meh" type players. May not be the best argument for him. It was a great idea! I would have never thought of looking at production on non-contact PA like that. The most amazing thing I found from that was Albert Pujols was a destructive tank back in his day. Would be a great article on Bau and Eddy and potentially JD if you look at it year by year.

 

This is what I have now. I removed the "why has he not performed" part. Unless someone has anything else they'd like to mention, I'll post it:

 

Can He Really Smoak It?

 

Originally noticed by scouts whom were initially looking at his teammate and friend, Matt Wieters, Justin Smoak became a top 5 rated talent in the 2008 draft due to his ability to hit and hit for power. Taken 11th overall by the Rangers, Smoak continued to impress in the minors with his bat, being ranked by Baseball America in the Ranger’s organization in having best power, best strike zone discipline and best hitter for average. He was so highly regarded he was the main piece in the Cliff Lee trade from Seattle to Texas.

 

Looking at his Major League career so far, it has been a disappointment in terms of his ability. Some could be wondering, where did his ability to hit and hit for power go? In actuality it may have not gone anywhere. The overall popular stats used by many such as batting average does not reflect well on Smoak, career .224 hitter, however the advanced statistics show a different story.

 

Hard% measures how hard the ball has been hit and while there is no guarantee that a hard hit bill will fall for a hit, it is more likely to than not. Over the past 5 years, Smoak’s Hard% has increased.

 

2011 – 28.2%

2012 – 28.9%

2013 – 36.6%

2014 – 36.4%

2015 – 37.3%

 

In 2015, for players with at least 200 PA, his Hard% is good for 27th in the league, ahead of bashers Nelson Cruz, Prince Fielder, Tood Frazier, Joey Votto and teammates Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista.

Smoak batted ball distance has also increased each year since 2011:

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/fantasy/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Justin-Smoak-Distance-Trend.png

Image per fangraphs.

 

Smoak also has not lost his plate discipline. He has a relatively high strikeout at a career 22.7% K, to be expected from a power hitter, but he also has a respectable walk rate at a career 10.6% BB.

For his career his 0-Swing% has been 27.5% and steadily declined over the past 3 years.

 

2013 – 29.2%

2014 – 27.8%

2015 – 25.2%

 

He is chasing less pitches outside the zone, but mind you there is understandably some discrepancy in this data as in 2013 he had nearly twice as many PA as 2014 and 2015.

 

While playing the majority of his career at Safeco Fields, a pitcher friendly ball park, Smoak has met or outperformed his xHR vs actual HR.

 

2010: 17.5 xHR | 13 HR

2011: 16 xHR | 16 HR

2012: 16.3 xHR | 18 HR

2013: 18 xHR | 20 HR

2014: 7 xHR | 7 HR

*stats per baseballheatmaps xHR, HR

 

Smoak’s defense has also brought value to a team whose previous 1st basement were a tandem of Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind, both of whom are rated below average to awful. While he may still split duties with Edwin, he has been brought in as a pinch defender late in the games often for the Jays. Among 1B with at least 200 PA, Smoak ranks tied for 5th at Defense (Def) at -2.3. His Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) rates him as an average defender at 2.1, however his UZR/150, UZR scaled to an average number of chances for a season, has him as an above average defender at 7.2. He has rated so well his defensive metrics are ahead of renowned gold glove winners Eric Hosmer, Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Teixeira.

 

Justin can Smoak it. There is still potential in his bat and while he may never win the batting championship he can provide 10-20 HRs over a season while playing great defense at 1B. There is value in that.

[NorthOf49]

I'm very busy this week, not expecting to get anything published. Next Monday-Wednesday I will be completely free and am looking forward to being able to pump out multiple good posts.

 

GD, it would be nice if you could write up a quick news and notes piece for tomorrow. Just 500 words with some points about the team's bullpen, Tulo's struggles, etc.

[GD]

Very busy every day except Wednesday, maybe

[NorthOf49]

Very busy every day except Wednesday, maybe

Ok. I would like to get the news and notes articles happening though. They're a solution to the whole thing where we don't like writing fluff pieces about how the Jays have been playing well. You can run down the news and offer positive and negative opinions.