Hutch and FIP

[Dick_Pole]

This is why teams still have heavy scouting departments and don't just employ a bunch of stat nerds. The game of baseball isn't played in a computer simulated environment. The problem is that FIP has zero ability to recognize the quality of a pitcher's stuff coming out of his hand; which is why "fielder independent pitching" is flawed. A guy who constantly hangs flat fastballs up over the heart of the plate will give up hits. The idea that a pitcher has zero control over balls put in play is erroneous: good pitches, even if they are hit, are far less likely to actually land as hits than poor pitches. FIP has no way of accounting for this.

 

Its comical that FIP actually rates Estrada and Hutchison as essentially equal this season. Actually watching the game paints a much different picture.

 

That's what swinging strike rates are for.

[Dick_Pole]

I know the title of this thread is called "Hutch and FIP" so people are arguing his "unluckiness" in the context of ERA vs FIP, but the man is 10-2. I know that might not mean much around these parts but it does mean a lot to many people who watch and commentate on baseball. Whatever lack of luck Hutchison has had on the defensive end in terms of batted balls in play, he's gotten twice that luck back on the offensive side of things.

 

I know why this argument has merit, because we are trying to debate who stays in the rotation if Stroman comes back - Estrada or Hutchison - since Dickey looks like he's learned how to pitch again. Let's just be happy that we can debate who stays on as #5 - the guy who's been pitching over his head or the guy who has been underperforming and is slightly unlucky. Because three months ago there would have been a debate between those two being the BEST pitcher in the rotation, not the worst.

[FrozenRopes]

I honestly think he just needs to change his grip a little. His BB will go up but everything else will reduce. His straight fastball is mashable.

[admin]

I'm not a huge advanced stats guy, and with the little I've followed over the last year or two, I'm behind on everything.

But FIP/xFIP was one of the reasons I suggest we buy low on Arrieta in 2012, even with a 6+ERA. His FIP/xFIP was 4.05/.365. K rates were good, walk rate was good, high BABIP (.320). Arrieta has turned into one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last two years. You actually compare Arrieta's 2012 with Hutch's 2015, they aren't too different.

[TwistedLogic]

I'm not a huge advanced stats guy, and with the little I've followed over the last year or two, I'm behind on everything.

But FIP/xFIP was one of the reasons I suggest we buy low on Arrieta in 2012, even with a 6+ERA. His FIP/xFIP was 4.05/.365. K rates were good, walk rate was good, high BABIP (.320). Arrieta has turned into one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last two years. You actually compare Arrieta's 2012 with Hutch's 2015, they aren't too different.

 

I like this comp.

[NLJays]

I like this comp.

 

Now they just need to hire a pitching coach that can teach Hutch Arrieta's cutter?

 

 

Something happens to Hutch when he's pitching from the stretch. Career bases empty: 56/215 BB/K, men on base: 59/117 BB/K (this is from before last night's game, FG hasn't updated yet). Not sure if it's only command or if there's a delivery issue that makes his stuff hittable, but this kind of thing leads to solid innings followed by huge implosions.

 

This isn't purely bad luck (although it's probably one of the reasons). Don't follow FIP blindly and be a jerk to everyone who doesn't. Most pitchers who underperform their FIP will be gone from the majors before they do too much damage to their ballclub. Interestingly, old friend Esmil Rogers seems to be the very worst when you sort pitchers from recent years by FIP-ERA. Hutch comes in 7th out of 607 "qualified" pitchers.

[jays76]

I think the main issue is that there are straw man arguments made by both sides. Stats people fall into the trap of thinking that people who criticizes FIP must also believe that ERA is better than FIP. It's not true. FIP is clearly a better stat than ERA IN GENERAL. But it's not an absolute - if a pitcher under-performs his FIP, was the pitcher just unlucky, or are there other factors at play? I remember when Morrow was having some awful seasons with the Jays, people started to dig into the numbers and found that with runners on base, Morrow's ERA skyrocketed, and so thoughts were formed about his inability to pitch effectively from the stretch, a factor accounted for by ERA but not by FIP, as after giving up 5 runs, Morrow would go on to strike out 6 and walk none over the next 3 innings before imploding again.

 

There is an interesting article here (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/4/16/2933862/a-closer-look-at-pitchers-who-consistently-underperform-their) from 2012 about pitchers underperforming their FIP. It comes to a minor conclusion that perhaps pitchers do have SOME influence over their batted ball profiles, citing Johan Santana, who outperformed his FIP by 20 points over more than 2000 innings.

 

ERA isn't a better stat than FIP, but FIP isn't bulletproof. There are always exceptions - pitchers outperform and underperform their fip, but if all of these pitchers' innings are taken in the aggregate and averaged over many years, this nuance is lost.

 

Finally, I understand why advanced stats are defended so dearly, as they have been under attack since their inception. But that doesn't mean that SABRmetricians can rest on their laurels. There is more work to be done. Instead of defending FIP to the death, maybe try and understand WHY pitchers like Hutch have so badly underperformed. There could be a reason (luck may or may not be it), and if elucidated, it may help him pitch to his ability. In essence, FIP is a great gauge of ability (much better than ERA), which is why it predicts ERA better than ERA does, and why it is so frustrating to see Hutch struggle. But just because we have found a piece of the truth, it doesn't mean we have found the whole truth.

 

Good post, I enjoyed it. Great points in regards to ERA vs FIP, I agree there are some things that advanced stats and SABRmetrics can't quantify and obviously ERA alone is very flawed. The Morrow and Hutch comparison is perfect because they are both supremely talented pitchers the statisticians will defend as unlucky due to numbers crunching, but both have a penchant and propensity for big implosions pitching out of the stretch.

[jays76]

Now they just need to hire a pitching coach that can teach Hutch Arrieta's cutter?

 

 

Something happens to Hutch when he's pitching from the stretch. Career bases empty: 56/215 BB/K, men on base: 59/117 BB/K (this is from before last night's game, FG hasn't updated yet). Not sure if it's only command or if there's a delivery issue that makes his stuff hittable, but this kind of thing leads to solid innings followed by huge implosions.

 

This isn't purely bad luck (although it's probably one of the reasons). Don't follow FIP blindly and be a jerk to everyone who doesn't. Most pitchers who underperform their FIP will be gone from the majors before they do too much damage to their ballclub. Interestingly, old friend Esmil Rogers seems to be the very worst when you sort pitchers from recent years by FIP-ERA. Hutch comes in 7th out of 607 "qualified" pitchers.

 

Good follow up to Magits post.

[BlueJayWay]

I've never seen anybody say FIP is "perfect" or "bulletproof" but it obviously is very useful to have because it works very well for most pitchers most of the time.

[The Cats Ass]

Another good question is, how is he so good at home and s***** on the road? 2.96 FIP at home with a 2.69 ERA in 11 starts, 3.69 K/BB. And away he has a 5.41 FIP with an even 9 ERA, in 11 starts, along with a much worse K/BB ratio. Maybe we should just start him at home for the rest of the season?

[Atothe]

Another good question is, how is he so good at home and s***** on the road? 2.96 FIP at home with a 2.69 ERA in 11 starts, 3.69 K/BB. And away he has a 5.41 FIP with an even 9 ERA, in 11 starts, along with a much worse K/BB ratio. Maybe we should just start him at home for the rest of the season?

 

Coincidental because it was the reverse last year.

[The Cats Ass]

Coincidental because it was the reverse last year.

 

Last year it wasn't this extreme. He was pretty much the same pitcher home and away last year.

[Boxcar]

I get that it converges over a huge sample but let's be honest Hutchison has been missing his spots way too often this season and I think that's what most posters are saying here. You don't need to be a scout to realize this when you watch him pitch. I think he could use a bit of time in the pen or the minors to sort out his command problems and he might be able to come back strong.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if several young pitchers like Hutchison fail to put up ERA's in line with their peripherals. I could see him learning how to "pitch" when he gets more seasoning and getting better results.

 

Sanchez has been missing his spots big time all year and all the "I judge with ma eyes" crowd loves him.

[BTS]

Sanchez has been missing his spots big time all year and all the "I judge with ma eyes" crowd loves him.

 

The "I judge with my eyes" crowd tends to be the "I judge by ERA" crowd. They just don't realize it. It's easy to attach a narrative to a guy experiencing good or bad luck with run prevention. I'm sure this Hutchison debate was being held re: Kluber and Carrasco earlier in the year on Cleveland forums.

[Sammy225]

The "I judge with my eyes" crowd tends to be the "I judge by ERA" crowd. They just don't realize it. It's easy to attach a narrative to a guy experiencing good or bad luck with run prevention. I'm sure this Hutchison debate was being held re: Kluber and Carrasco earlier in the year on Cleveland forums.

 

I judge by listening to the Radio....

[saskjayfan]

League average LD rate is 21%, and that tends to fluctuate randomly. The GB is a skill, but it's accounted for in xFIP. Neither are interesting starting points in trying to explain why his ERA will continue to exceed his xFIP.

 

xfip simply adjusts the home runs to reflect league average fly ball to home run rate, so ground ball rate is somewhat accounted for, but it does not differentiate ground balls and line drives. You may feel line drives fluctuate randomly, but if you step outside the box and look at Hutch and Sanchez the difference in line drive rates is real. They both struggle with fastball command, but when hutch leaves it over the middle of the plate he gets crushed. When Sanchez leaves it over the middle of the plate, more times than not he induces weak contact because he has such good late movement. His issues come when he can't find the strike zone. In early games Sanchez ball was flat and wasn't getting the movement and that's when he got crushed. His line drive rate after the first few games when down quite a bit.

 

You may feel the line drive rate is just an element of luck, but I disagree. The batting average on line drives is .685 vs .239 for ground balls and .207 for fly balls. Line drives are the death of pitchers producing 1.26 runs/out. Fly balls produce .13 runs/out and ground balls .05 runs/out. If we look further, 31% of the balls off hutch are hit hard, vs Sanchez who has 21% of the balls off him hit hard.

 

Sanchez was also on a path prior to getting injured of reducing the number of walks, which was resulting in better fip and xfip numbers. His season was cut off short and he won't log enough innings to have potentially improve on the numbers that were so damaging in his early starts where he couldn't find the strike zone. I think some of you given the choice would get rid of Sanchez and keep Hutch at the end of the season. Personally I would keep both, because Hutch's issues is fastball command and this is reflected in him getting hit hard. His secondary pitches are swing and miss. Sanchez, needs to develop that change up and this will result in him getting more swing and misses. Both can improve to become very good pitchers...time will tell if the do.

[Boxcar]

I really wish some guys would realize that they lack the knowledge to form a coherent opinion on certain things. (see above)

[Dick_Pole]

Wow, metafour is an awful poster.

 

Sanchez has been missing his spots big time all year and all the "I judge with ma eyes" crowd loves him.

 

I really wish some guys would realize that they lack the knowledge to form a coherent opinion on certain things. (see above)

 

Boxcar chiming in with his usual criticisms in this thread without actually contributing anything useful himself. Lets BTS do all the talking for him. Nice to see some things never change.

[Daniel Labude]

The "I judge with my eyes" crowd tends to be the "I judge by ERA" crowd. They just don't realize it. It's easy to attach a narrative to a guy experiencing good or bad luck with run prevention. I'm sure this Hutchison debate was being held re: Kluber and Carrasco earlier in the year on Cleveland forums.

 

Stats guys just don't get it. Describing a pitcher solely on stats and saying bad luck is the reason he hasn't succeed is a joke of an argument. Maybe Hutch just sucks...the results would point towards that. He has a bad fastball and a crappy slider (what happened to that) and an ok change. Add in poor command it's easy to see why he sucks. If I pitched and gave up 5 homers in a row....people would say I suck, not that it was bad luck. When a guy is getting crushed every single night.... he sucks.

[BTS]

Stats guys just don't get it. Describing a pitcher solely on stats and saying bad luck is the reason he hasn't succeed is a joke of an argument. Maybe Hutch just sucks...the results would point towards that. He has a bad fastball and a crappy slider (what happened to that) and an ok change. Add in poor command it's easy to see why he sucks. If I pitched and gave up 5 homers in a row....people would say I suck, not that it was bad luck. When a guy is getting crushed every single night.... he sucks.

 

You recently called Jeff Hoffman the most valuable asset in baseball. This should cause you to reconsider how firm your baseball-related opinions should be.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think Hutch was pretty unlucky earlier in the season so thats why the argument about FIP is going on. Because in the last month he's truly been terrible and his peripherals show that.

[GD]

You recently called Jeff Hoffman the most valuable asset in baseball. This should cause you to reconsider how firm your baseball-related opinions should be.

 

It's right in front of him. He's been shown his thought process is incorrect by two front offices and he sticks to it.

[Daniel Labude]

You recently called Jeff Hoffman the most valuable asset in baseball. This should cause you to reconsider how firm your baseball-related opinions should be.

 

I did not.. go back to 3rd grade, you need some reading comprehension.

[BTS]

I did not.. go back to 3rd grade, you need some reading comprehension.

 

Right. You said the only asset you would consider trading him for is Mike Trout, and even then you probably wouldn't do it.

[Stangstag]

Right. You said the only asset you would consider trading him for is Mike Trout, and even then you probably wouldn't do it.

 

Lol if anybody ACTUALLY said that... They should probably quit following baseball

[GD]

Lol if anybody ACTUALLY said that... They should probably quit following baseball

 

He said he wouldn't do McCutchen or Bryant and then followed that up at a separate occasion by defending it. Also said something about Harper, I think.

[saskjayfan]

I really wish some guys would realize that they lack the knowledge to form a coherent opinion on certain things. (see above)

We can't all be as smart as you boxy. Fip is infallible. I never suggested fip and Xfip on the macro are not great indicators. 5 years from now we'll see who is better Sanchez or hutch. Hopefully both are good. You seem to be certain one will be good and one will be bad and anyone who thinks different is just dumb, but maybe you aren't as smart as you think you are. I'm just playing devils advocate and thinking outside the box.

[Daniel Labude]

Right. You said the only asset you would consider trading him for is Mike Trout, and even then you probably wouldn't do it.

 

No...if you can't comprehend this please seek medical help. I said trading a top pitching prospect for a hitter and 1 we didn't need at the time (Bryant) I would not do. Then people asked me about Mccutchen, Stanton, and Trout. Trout, I said I'd consider, Stanton I wanted to see how he came back from the hbp, and McCutchen I just don't like so I wouldn't. Never was I asked about pitching, which I would have said any good to great pitcher I would trade him for and some I would trade him ++++++++ for. So no, I never said the only asset I would consider is Trout.

[Daniel Labude]

Lol if anybody ACTUALLY said that... They should probably quit following baseball

 

Above is a more accurate representation of events that the stats humpers lie about just to make themselves feel better.

[Brownie19]

Why can't we all just agree that pitchers should be evaluated based on a number of factors? Most of the evaluation should come from the various stats we have available to us (and we should acknowledge that no one single stat is perfect), mixed in with some visual assessments to help prove or disprove what the stats suggest are true?

 

I think if we do that, we realise that Hutchison has not pitched well this year; however, on top of that, he's also been a bit unlucky (we should all acknowledge there's a lot of luck involved in baseball). Can he make adjustments and go on a tear in the second half like he did last year (when he apparently made an adjustment on how he was throwing his slider)? I sure hope so.