What would you give up for Shields and Kimbrel?

[pickoff22]

Curious what people think a reasonable package would be for these two. The high salary of both complicates things (as does the expected return based on what they gave up for Kimbrel). The control aspect has to be of some interest to AA though you would think (if there's actually money available, which I question)

[Swervin81]

I don't know how I feel about Shields, honestly. He does have a track record in the AL East, but his HR proneness is highly concerning, especially since he's now in the NL West pitcher's dream division and he's still giving up HR's.

 

I'd rather target Quackenbush if we're going for a pen arm, honestly. I don't wanna give up that much for a big name, even if it is Kimbrel. Osuna is fine.

[pickoff22]

 

I'd rather target Quackenbush if we're going for a pen arm, honestly. I don't wanna give up that much for a big name, even if it is Kimbrel. Osuna is fine.

 

I'm starting to think having an arsenal of guys in the pen available for the 7th, 8th, 9th is worth more than I would have thought in the past. Maybe I'm being swayed by the success of the Yanks and Royals and the struggles of our pen, but I sure would like to feel comfortable in the later innings. Osuna has been more than fine, but imagine having him as a setup guy with a bonafide closer following him.

[jays4life19]

How much is SD eating $$? No way Rogers would approve of that kind of payroll hit with the FO in question after this season.

[Deadpool]

The fact that Sheilds is on a free agent contract makes me less likely to want to part with any real assets for him... He's a bottom-tier ace (no, I'm not going to explain what that actually means, so don't ask) so, unless SD is eating a lot of salary, they're getting a couple of C prospects at best in return....

[RealAccountant]

Nothing since we are .500

[Ziggyy108]

Would San Diego take Reyes

[o2cui2i]

The fact that Sheilds is on a free agent contract makes me less likely to want to part with any real assets for him... He's a bottom-tier ace (no, I'm not going to explain what that actually means, so don't ask) so, unless SD is eating a lot of salary, they're getting a couple of C prospects at best in return....

 

I really hope we don't mortgage the next couple of years for a 50/50 chance to make the post season.

[RealAccountant]

I really hope we don't mortgage the next couple of years for a 50/50 chance to make the post season.

 

50/50????

[o2cui2i]

50/50????

 

odds makers say jays 46% chance as is.... adding a starter might get us to 50%

 

I'd hate to rent a player that costs us a couple really good prospects to only have a 50% chance.

[nmrch]

odds makers say jays 46% chance as is.... adding a starter might get us to 50%

 

I'd hate to rent a player that costs us a couple really good prospects to only have a 50% chance.

 

Fangraphs has it closer to 30%, and only a small portion of that is for the division. The Jays have a 1 in 5 shot of making the wildcard playoff, their odds of making it to the ALDS is around 10%. A 10% shot at a playoff series with a .500 talent team should not translate to buyers, i don't understand fans who even think about trading guys like Pompey, Norris, Alford etc for a faint hope.

[thatoneguy]

Fangraphs has it closer to 30%, and only a small portion of that is for the division. The Jays have a 1 in 5 shot of making the wildcard playoff, their odds of making it to the ALDS is around 10%. A 10% shot at a playoff series with a .500 talent team should not translate to buyers, i don't understand fans who even think about trading guys like Pompey, Norris, Alford etc for a faint hope.

 

Certain players would likely make it more than a faint hope.

[Boxcar]

If they arent picking up any of the tab, Ryan Goins.

[reedjohnsonfan]

People have been mentioning Shields but are they really going to trade him 4 months after signing him to a big contract? It looks terrible on their part, this isn't the Marlins we're talking about.

[jays_fever]

Shields is making 21 million for the next 4 years. No one is going to give up real assets to take that on

[GreekFatAss]

To much money for to little an upgrade. I would rather spend more assets on players with more upside with less $ attached.

[nmrch]

Certain players would likely make it more than a faint hope.

 

not really though, if you replaced Estrada or Doubront with Price that's a ~1.5 - 2 win bump, would probably boost our division odds to 25% and wildcard odds to 30%. We'd still be facing an uphill battle in making the ALDS. I'm not asking for a 100% shot or anything but i don't think it makes sense to trade away the future unless you atleast have a 50% shot at the division.

[pickoff22]

not really though, if you replaced Estrada or Doubront with Price that's a ~1.5 - 2 win bump, would probably boost our division odds to 25% and wildcard odds to 30%. We'd still be facing an uphill battle in making the ALDS. I'm not asking for a 100% shot or anything but i don't think it makes sense to trade away the future unless you atleast have a 50% shot at the division.

 

You can make trades that help you for more than this year. Both Shields and Kimbrel come with control, this scenario doesn't involve any rental

[TwistedLogic]

If you're trading for a relief pitcher, target Lowe from the Mariners, or Uehara from the Red Sox. If you want control and you're willing to give up more for it, I'd call up the Phillies on Giles, the Marlins on Ramos, the Mariners on Carson Smith, the Indians on Allen or McAllister, or the Brewers on Will Smith.

 

Kimbrel (salary) and Chapman (assets) will both cost too much, and while Chapman is still as f***ing legendary as ever, all the other guys I mentioned have been better than Kimbrel this year.

 

There's an ass ton of very good relief arms that are currently pitching for bottom-of-the-barrel teams, it shouldn't be extremely difficult to find a guy or two.

 

Edit: Didn't know Grilli was injured.

Edited July 25, 2015 by TwistedLogic

[Molitor]

Couldn't we have just signed Shields in the off season? Why now but not then?

 

Unless Shields didn't want to play here and this is our way of forcing him. Probably not the best strategy.

[GreekFatAss]

If you're trading for a relief pitcher, target either Grilli from the Braves, or Uehara from the Red Sox. If you want control and you're willing to give up more for it, I'd call up the Phillies on Giles, the Marlins on Ramos, the Mariners on Carson Smith, or the Brewers on Will Smith.

 

Kimbrel (salary) and Chapman (assets) will both cost too much, and while Chapman is still as f***ing legendary as ever, all the other guys I mentioned have been better than Kimbrel this year.

 

Grilli has a ruptured Achilles, his career is likely over.

[pickoff22]

Couldn't we have just signed Shields in the off season? Why now but not then?

 

Unless Shields didn't want to play here and this is our way of forcing him. Probably not the best strategy.

 

I don't disagree, I think there are better trade options out there. For me it's an interesting conversation piece though because of all the salary involved of the two players. Apparently SD really wants to move Shields. But at 21 million a year that's a tough sell, something closer to 15 would be more palatable. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[pickoff22]

If you want control and you're willing to give up more for it, I'd call up the Phillies on Giles

 

This please

[TwistedLogic]

Grilli has a ruptured Achilles, his career is likely over.

 

Thanks, didn't know that this happened. Edited the post to remove Grilli and add FanGraphs links for the rest of the guys.

[TwistedLogic]

Why would we need a reliever? Some of those guys listed would cost a lot.

 

I never said that we do, and I acknowledged that they would cost a lot. The premise of my post was that if you are going to target relief pitching (obviously I don't think that's the Jays primary mission, and I don't think it should be), those are some of the guys I'd go after. They'd cost less than Chapman or Kimbrel, but they're having similarly dominant seasons.

 

And I don't think Lowe or Uehara would cost a ton, but they'd provide some insurance in an incredibly volatile pen. The pen needs some stability.

[xposbrad]

I don't disagree, I think there are better trade options out there. For me it's an interesting conversation piece though because of all the salary involved of the two players. Apparently SD really wants to move Shields. But at 21 million a year that's a tough sell, something closer to 15 would be more palatable. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

Shields' contract was backloaded after this year. I would trade for him just because he will cost nothing, SD wants to dump him, he shouldn't cost more than a low level B prospect at the most. It's Kimbrel who will require a decent prospect/player in return.

[Dick_Pole]

Shields' contract was backloaded after this year. I would trade for him just because he will cost nothing, SD wants to dump him, he shouldn't cost more than a low level B prospect at the most. It's Kimbrel who will require a decent prospect/player in return.

 

Is this real how the MLB is going to be now? Sign a bunch of free agents to back loaded contracts, then try to trade them 1 year or less into the contract if your team is out of it to another sucker GM. Maybe the Jays should trade Martin if they go on a losing streak in the next week.