General Jays Discussion 2015

[HERPDERP]

Lol @ two pitches... he has three different fastballs.

 

what, I assume his 4 seam and 2 seam are lumped together cause fangraphs doesn't account for the two. But he has a cutter but it's been inconsistent:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P#pitchtype

 

Doesn't change the fact that he heavily relies on his fastball and that's the pitch that loses its effectiveness the quickest

[HERPDERP]

You don't resign Price to help this team in +5yrs, you sign him to help win games now. If the Jays can put together a string of playoff appearances over the initial 3-4yrs of Price's deal the contract will pay for itself and you deal with the declining performance when it happens.

 

If we're the Yankees, sure. But I don't think the Jays will have the payroll to add Price for 25m a year on top of all the other signings we need to replace Edwin/Bau and the pitching.

[DuckDuckGose]

With Alex parting with a significant prospect makes me think the plan to make a significant run at resigning Price. He absolutely hates overpaying for rental players. And nobody wil stand for not having a #1 starter going into next year. Hes going to have to blow his load for someone because he doesn't have the prospect depth to go out and trade for another one.

 

You guys are cutting Price short. This a guy who has always been healthy and has lost nothing on his fastball. I'm sure he will figure out a way to reinvent himself. Hes already started that transition with his changeup use going up. If Price gives you 3-4 elite years on a 6 or 7 year contract nobody will really care. Thats the risk you take. Prices are only going up and our top pitchinh prospects are in A ball.

 

Everything you said + the fact that if the Jays don't resign him he's going to the Yankees. How much is it worth to the FO to keep him out of NY? I'm guessing quite a bit of $.

[KingKat]

Since it came up...

 

Excellent article about the depth and quality of David Price's repertoire: http://capitaljays.com/2015/08/08/david-price-blue-jays-ace-and-jack-of-all-trades-with-baseballs-most-unique-arsenal/

[DuckDuckGose]

Its the same attitude people had when people were suggesting we would trade for him. I'm not saying I expect us to sign David Price. But if people don't think were prepared to throw a s*** load of money at him they're crazy.

 

They said the A's would never trade JD. They said Russ Martin would never sign here. They said the Jays wouldn't be able to land Tulo. They said Price was going to LA. Why can't they resign Price?

[HERPDERP]

"but the combination of his stuff, outstanding command, pitching intelligence, and unparalleled stamina makes him the ace that Alex Anthopoulos was willing to sell the potential of eighteen years of young pitching for."

 

Never liked using the years of control line. It's not all that important until you consider the quality of players.

[DuckDuckGose]

If we're the Yankees, sure. But I don't think the Jays will have the payroll to add Price for 25m a year on top of all the other signings we need to replace Edwin/Bau and the pitching.

 

Rogers are the richest owners in baseball. They're currently seeing record TV ratings for the stations they own and attendance records for their stadium. Payroll should go up if fan support goes up. Buehrle is coming off the books. I'm realistic in understanding Price is unlikely to resign here but to say there is no way it happens is just unnecessarily pessimistic IMO.

[metafour]

As I mentioned elsewhere Price is someone that does not age well. This year he's a two pitch pitcher and you'd figure he has maybe 2-3 more years before he regresses and loses a lot of velocity on his FB, which is where he gets most of his value from. Sabathia and Price have a lot of similarities and look at where Sabathia is now. At age 32 he bombed and that was when his average FB dropped from 93-94 to 91. Now he's below 90 for the past two years.

 

Can you imagine a David Price with a 90 mph fastball being effective? I don't.

 

I think that you're making quite a few assumptions, particularly on Price losing significant velocity after only 2-3 seasons. One could argue that since Price has pretty much been a four-seam/sinker/changeup pitcher his entire career, his arm should maintain itself longer than most as it has not been used to snap off violent breaking balls (ie: sliders). Roughly 25% of Sabathia's pitches thrown since PitchFX started tracking in 2007 have been sliders. On the contrary, less than 3% of Price's pitches thrown during that same time frame have been sliders. He more or less never throws the pitch, therefore trying to use Sabathia (a heavy slider pitcher) as proof that Price will fall apart at the same rate seems quite silly. A more realistic comparison would be Cole Hamels; another fastball/changeup pitcher who at nearly 32 is not only maintaining velocity, he is actually throwing harder NOW than he was 5-6 years ago.

[HERPDERP]

The comparison between Price and Sabathia is laughable. Great they are or were both hard throwing Lefties. But they have completely different body types. Sabathia has pitched overweight his entire career and actually f***ed up his knee before his arm which effects everything including velocity and command. Price has such a simple delivery as well. Sabathia has so many moving parts that everything has to be aligned to make everything work.

 

I wasn't factoring in the body type. I'm comparing both of them in terms of stuff/offerings/workload. They're very similar.

[pickoff22]

If we're the Yankees, sure. But I don't think the Jays will have the payroll to add Price for 25m a year on top of all the other signings we need to replace Edwin/Bau and the pitching.

 

I see the Yankees and Jays going in opposite directions in terms of willingness to spend dollars. Yankees haven't been as splashy as they have been in the past as they really wanted to get under the luxury tax threshold. It's not the same without Steinbrenner. Sure they will always have a large payroll but not sure they expand it.

 

The Jays on the other hand have a healthy payroll but certainly one that could be increased. And as a team being run by a corporation, the noticeable increase in ticket sales and viewership will catch their attention. Over 300,000 tickets have sold since the trades....probably closer to 400,000 now. That's 10 million if you assume an average cost of $30. There is clearly a relationship between revenue and this team winning......and a big name player like Price will most certainly drive ticket sales before the season even starts. We'll see how they approach payroll in the offseason, but it's an easy argument to make that they *should* be open to a decent bump.

[DuckDuckGose]

He doesn't want to play for the Yankees. My guesses for his landing destination would be Dodgers or Cubs. Both should be good for a long time and both can pay him whatever he wants.

 

LAD, CHI, and NYY will all make huge offers and the Yanks tend to get the players they covet. Jays are a long shot but it doesn't mean it's impossible.

[HERPDERP]

I think that you're making quite a few assumptions, particularly on Price losing significant velocity after only 2-3 seasons. One could argue that since Price has pretty much been a four-seam/sinker/changeup pitcher his entire career, his arm should maintain itself longer than most as it has not been used to snap off violent breaking balls (ie: sliders). Roughly 25% of Sabathia's pitches thrown since PitchFX started tracking in 2007 have been sliders. On the contrary, less than 3% of Price's pitches thrown during that same time frame have been sliders. He more or less never throws the pitch, therefore trying to use Sabathia (a heavy slider pitcher) as proof that Price will fall apart at the same rate seems quite silly. A more realistic comparison would be Cole Hamels; another fastball/changeup pitcher who at nearly 32 is not only maintaining velocity, he is actually throwing harder NOW than he was 5-6 years ago.

 

Good point.

[metafour]

I wasn't factoring in the body type. I'm comparing both of them in terms of stuff/offerings/workload. They're very similar.

 

No, they're not. They're both hard-throwing lefties...thats about it. Sabathia is fastball/slider whereas Price is fastball/changeup. Big, big difference.

[Brownie19]

I absolutely loathe this mentality. Everyone is stupid some of the time.

 

Of c'mon - we all know a lot of the people who call in are stupid most of the time...

[GD]

They said the A's would never trade JD. They said Russ Martin would never sign here. They said the Jays wouldn't be able to land Tulo. They said Price was going to LA. Why can't they resign Price?

 

It's not why can't they. It's why shouldn't they.

[Brownie19]

I think that you're making quite a few assumptions, particularly on Price losing significant velocity after only 2-3 seasons. One could argue that since Price has pretty much been a four-seam/sinker/changeup pitcher his entire career, his arm should maintain itself longer than most as it has not been used to snap off violent breaking balls (ie: sliders). Roughly 25% of Sabathia's pitches thrown since PitchFX started tracking in 2007 have been sliders. On the contrary, less than 3% of Price's pitches thrown during that same time frame have been sliders. He more or less never throws the pitch, therefore trying to use Sabathia (a heavy slider pitcher) as proof that Price will fall apart at the same rate seems quite silly. A more realistic comparison would be Cole Hamels; another fastball/changeup pitcher who at nearly 32 is not only maintaining velocity, he is actually throwing harder NOW than he was 5-6 years ago.

 

Yep...not to mention Hamels has made a career basically with only one above average pitch (change). We've already had this discussion.

[DuckDuckGose]

It's not why can't they. It's why shouldn't they.

 

And why shouldn't they?

[GD]

And why shouldn't they?

 

Because committing large sums of money to pitchers over long terms is not conducive to winning.

[metafour]

Yep...not to mention Hamels has made a career basically with only one above average pitch (change). We've already had this discussion.

 

Hamels' cutter is also plus. It is however interesting to see him throwing harder at 31/32 than he ever did all throughout his 20's.

[DuckDuckGose]

Because committing large sums of money to pitchers over long terms is not conducive to winning.

 

That's a moronic statement. Nothing in life is that black and white. Good pitchers are conducive to winning. The Jays are going to need pitching in 2016 and beyond. They do not have MLB ready pitching after the deadline.

[ValiantJaysFan]

If they resign Price to a 5-7 year deal, and he declines in the latter years...trade him. I'm sure the Dodgers or whoever is spending outrageous sums of money at the time would take him on. Meanwhile we'd be competitive for 3-4 more years with Price and Stroman as our top two pitchers and I doubt anyone would be complaining if were contending for that long because attendance would be way up and so would payroll.

 

Not to mention the intangibles he brings and the impact he would have on the rest of the rotation. Stroman in particular could learn a lot from him.

 

Pay the man.

[HERPDERP]

TIL that Devon Travis has is not all that far from Carlos Correa in WAR considering the PA

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13862&position=2B

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14162&position=SS

[CHRIS]

Because committing large sums of money to pitchers over long terms is not conducive to winning.

 

My guess would be that this is more true if the money spent on the pitcher significantly impacts the ability to spend other money in other areas.

 

I don't mind having an expensive team. I do mind having a financially constrained team.

[GD]

That's a moronic statement. Nothing in life is that black and white. Good pitchers are conducive to winning. The Jays are going to need pitching in 2016 and beyond. They do not have MLB ready pitching after the deadline.

 

Sure. And constraining your spending abilities on one pitcher will impact your ability to add good pitchers.

[Governator]

Depending how this season finishes, there is also a good possibility that pitchers may actually be attracted here for once in the FA market. We shouldn't only be limited to trying to extend Price compared to exploring the market for better financial options to begin with.

[DuckDuckGose]

If they Jays give Price $30MM a year long term, they'll be paying $90MM for only four players in 2018. This organization can't afford to pay so few players so much money. It would really restrict the front office's ability to build a full roster; even if you think they'll go up to $140MM by 2018, $50MM for 21 players is nothing. Price and the Blue Jays are not a long-term fit and he's not giving us a discount anyway.

 

A) You're guessing Price gets $30M

You have no idea what payroll will be in 2018. The way payrolls and revenues are trending across the league we can assume payroll will be going up (way above $140M which they spent last season)

C) Take money out of the equation and Price is a great fit for this roster

 

Your whole argument is that the Jays haven't spent in the past, why can't they spend going forward? They have the richest owners in baseballl, a fanbase that will support a winner and the means to win.

[Daniel Labude]

Because committing large sums of money to pitchers over long terms is not conducive to winning.

 

Yeah Sherzer sure will f*** the Nationals over the course of that contract. I mean they f***ed all chance they had of fielding a remotely good team because of signing Sherzer.

[Daniel Labude]

Sure. And constraining your spending abilities on one pitcher will impact your ability to add good pitchers.

 

Yer Dumn

[DuckDuckGose]

Sure. And constraining your spending abilities on one pitcher will impact your ability to add good pitchers.

 

Adding good pitchers costs $, they're better off spending a little more on a top flight guy than market value contracts for a bunch of mid-rotation guys.

[GD]

A) You're guessing Price gets $30M

You have no idea what payroll will be in 2018. The way payrolls and revenues are trending across the league we can assume payroll will be going up (way above $140M which they spent last season)

C) Take money out of the equation and Price is a great fit for this roster

 

Your whole argument is that the Jays haven't spent in the past, why can't they spend going forward? They have the richest owners in baseballl, a fanbase that will support a winner and the means to win.

 

Lol and you're telling me I'm making a moronic statement.

 

In what world doesn't Price get $30m?