General Jays Discussion 2015

[jaysfan2014]

Why does one single week weigh more than any other week? The Rays have the same record as the Jays, the Orioles have only been one game better, and the Yankees are only ahead by two games. If they've all produced virtually the same results, should all four teams just hang it up and phone it in for the rest of the year? Or are you saying one bad week by the Jays is supposed to be more concerning than any one poor week by the Yankees or the Orioles that happened earlier in the year?

 

No offense, but it's a good thing that it's not your job to make decisions for the team, since you're clearly very influenced by recency bias. Let's hope the front office is capable of looking at a bigger picture.

 

One other thing to watch out for.. the Red Sox have gone on a 7-4 run in their last 11, and have climbed to with 6 of the Yankees (and 5 in the wild card.) With their offense chugging, that team could be a threat all of a sudden, thanks to Buchholz, Ed-Rod, and the emergences of Betts/Holt/Bogaerts.. Pedroia's injury was a blessing in disguise, because it finally forced Farrell to change the lineup.

 

As for the Jays.. We really need a good week vs the White Sox (who can't hit and their bullpen is ghastly.. see today's O's game. Even Sale can't save this mess, and don't guarantee he'll dominate the Jays.. he's only 6-4 because the Sox don't give him any run support.), and the Royals (top ranked bullpen and D, mid-road offense and the worst rotation in baseball.. even when Yordy Ventura returns.)

[TwistedLogic]

If you're fast and can maintain a high LD% you can have a higher than average BABIP, but no one is anywhere near a true talent .400 babip guy in today's MLB.

 

From what I gathered, I don't think anybody was saying Pillar is a true talent .400 BABIP guy, because nobody said that Pillar is a true talent 153 wRC+ guy (his number in June). If anybody claimed that Pillar was close to a .400 BABIP player, they'd be claiming he was the best CF in the game. What many people here have said (and what I agree with) is that he is not far from being worth of an everday spot in CF, because he's got a league average bat, and brilliant defense. To be a league average bat going forward, he doesn't need a .400 BABIP like he had in June, he only needs the .318 BABIP that he's carried throughout the season thus far.

[TwistedLogic]

If this season has taught me anything its that you start with pitching and defense first. Then build your offense. Not the other way around.

 

I get that you guys probably had a bit of a meltdown yesterday, but you're completely tunneled in on a single game. This team's defense is not a problem. Regardless of how many of you want to rage about it, the Jays are an above average defensive team (6th in Def WAR, 11th in UZR, 11th in UZR/150, 18th in DRS).

 

The defense behind the plate (Martin), at third (Donaldson), and in center (Pillar) has been excellent. The defense at short (Reyes) and second (Travis) has been a plus, and the defense in right (Bautista) and on the mound (Dickey, Buehrle, Estrada) has been bearable. The two areas where there are major defensive problems are at first (Edwin and Smoak) and in left (Colabello, Valencia, Carrera). Any of you that are actually stupid enough to actually propose benching Smoak or Edwin for a better defender at first shouldn't be debating baseball in the first place. That leaves left field. So what exactly do you propose? That they should trade assets to acquire a better defender in left? They can't do anything other than letting it sort itself out whenever one of Saunders or Pompey returns, both of whom are plus defenders.

[RealAccountant]

One other thing to watch out for.. the Red Sox have gone on a 7-4 run in their last 11, and have climbed to with 6 of the Yankees (and 5 in the wild card.) With their offense chugging, that team could be a threat all of a sudden, thanks to Buchholz, Ed-Rod, and the emergences of Betts/Holt/Bogaerts.. Pedroia's injury was a blessing in disguise, because it finally forced Farrell to change the lineup.

 

As for the Jays.. We really need a good week vs the White Sox (who can't hit and their bullpen is ghastly.. see today's O's game. Even Sale can't save this mess, and don't guarantee he'll dominate the Jays.. he's only 6-4 because the Sox don't give him any run support.), and the Royals (top ranked bullpen and D, mid-road offense and the worst rotation in baseball.. even when Yordy Ventura returns.)

 

A surging Redsox team actually helps our chances, as they wont be walk overs for Orioles/Rays/Yankees

 

Evens out the division even more. Who knows we may have 5 teams tied at 81 wins.

[TwistedLogic]

Cant be half pregnant. MIA deal changed the organizations philosophy like it or not. Aging Reyes and Martin with aging Jose and Edwin deals expiring. JD is an elite player but he came at a cost of losing talent the org built.

 

How exactly do you guys define the closing of the proverbial "window"? Two years ago, we were to assume that the window was closing, due to an "aging Bautista". If an aging Bautista is giving you a 149 wRC+ at 34 years old, then Martin at 31 and Reyes and Edwin at 32 should all continue to be valuable for several more years, shouldn't they? 2014 was a "last chance" year before the books began to close on Edwin and Jose. To offset that, we now have Jesus Donaldson for four more years, and Russell Martin for five. We've replaced the wildly unpredictable Rasmus with Pillar, who at worst will give you defense you can count on, and we've replaced four half-seasons of control over Lawrie with six years of Devon Travis.

 

Marcus Stroman will be back at some point, Daniel Norris is knocking on the door again, several people on this forum swear that Aaron Sanchez was showing signs of improvement, Roberto Osuna has shown a clear ability to K major league bats at just 20 years old, and this franchise is finally showing some signs of life in their bats in the minor leagues.

 

Why the hell is the window expected to be closing again?

[pickoff22]

How exactly do you guys define the closing of the proverbial "window"? Two years ago, we were to assume that the window was closing, due to an "aging Bautista". If an aging Bautista is giving you a 149 wRC+ at 34 years old, then Martin at 31 and Reyes and Edwin at 32 should all continue to be valuable for several more years, shouldn't they? 2014 was a "last chance" year before the books began to close on Edwin and Jose. To offset that, we now have Jesus Donaldson for four more years, and Russell Martin for five. We've replaced the wildly unpredictable Rasmus with Pillar, who at worst will give you defense you can count on, and we've replaced four half-seasons of control over Lawrie with six years of Devon Travis.

 

Marcus Stroman will be back at some point, Daniel Norris is knocking on the door again, several people on this forum swear that Aaron Sanchez was showing signs of improvement, Roberto Osuna has shown a clear ability to K major league bats at just 20 years old, and this franchise is finally showing some signs of life in their bats in the minor leagues.

 

Why the hell is the window expected to be closing again?

 

I feel like you're bringing some sanity into these panicked forums. You're using logic, that isn't twisted, and I thank you for that.

[ElNik2013]

How exactly do you guys define the closing of the proverbial "window"? Two years ago, we were to assume that the window was closing, due to an "aging Bautista". If an aging Bautista is giving you a 149 wRC+ at 34 years old, then Martin at 31 and Reyes and Edwin at 32 should all continue to be valuable for several more years, shouldn't they? 2014 was a "last chance" year before the books began to close on Edwin and Jose. To offset that, we now have Jesus Donaldson for four more years, and Russell Martin for five. We've replaced the wildly unpredictable Rasmus with Pillar, who at worst will give you defense you can count on, and we've replaced four half-seasons of control over Lawrie with six years of Devon Travis.

 

Marcus Stroman will be back at some point, Daniel Norris is knocking on the door again, several people on this forum swear that Aaron Sanchez was showing signs of improvement, Roberto Osuna has shown a clear ability to K major league bats at just 20 years old, and this franchise is finally showing some signs of life in their bats in the minor leagues.

 

Why the hell is the window expected to be closing again?

 

 

And the Marlins trade was supposed to be "franchise-crippling". And the farm system had been emptied and AA wouldn't be able to reload it because he didn't have all those comp picks.

 

Let's see them continue to build the team and if a good trade pops up, then go for it as long as they're getting a youngish guy with control.

 

 

Anyway...

[ElNik2013]

Getting back to Smoak, does anyone have his splits vs LHP away from Safeco?

 

 

Just trying to find more reasons he should be playing over Colabello.

[CrackerJack]

A surging Redsox team actually helps our chances, as they wont be walk overs for Orioles/Rays/Yankees

 

Evens out the division even more. Who knows we may have 5 teams tied at 81 wins.

 

a 5-way tie for first would be quite something ...

 

wonder what has been the closest divisional final standings in mlb history?

(i.e. the fewest wins separating a division's first place team from its last place team?)

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Surprisingly, Danny V. is at 1 fWAR.

 

I'm not surprised, they are really using him well.

[labadee]

Josh d gonna bring rain at the asg!!!

[LTR]

I'm not surprised, they are really using him well.

 

Dude this post is embarrassingly bad.

 

Playing Valencia in LF and allowing him to face righties half the time... that is not using him well at all.

 

Actually Valencia has been incredibly lucky vs righties so far, and he looks bad in the OF (mildly better than Colabello).

[TwistedLogic]

Surprisingly, Danny V. is at 1 fWAR.

 

For some reason, he's gotten equal opportunities against LHP and RHP (exactly 60 PA vs each), and for some reason, he's done well against both

 

One other thing to watch out for.. the Red Sox have gone on a 7-4 run in their last 11, and have climbed to with 6 of the Yankees (and 5 in the wild card.) With their offense chugging, that team could be a threat all of a sudden

 

Why would it be "sudden"? The Red Sox have always been a threat, but because of their slow start, people quickly began to I've been reasoning all along that the Red Sox are probably not as bad as they have been. They are still the team that was projected to rape the division prior to the beginning of the season, and for some reason, nobody expects their pitching to positively regress. Being 6 or 7 games back of the division lead with half the season still left to be played is by no means enough to write a team off.

[RealAccountant]

Getting back to Smoak, does anyone have his splits vs LHP away from Safeco?

 

 

Just trying to find more reasons he should be playing over Colabello.

 

Smoak is really looking like he is reaching a new level as a player, the swings he is getting, those would be homeruns in safeco as well. He isn't hitting 350ft cheapies, he is crushing them.

 

This team is boarderline retarded if they dont play Smoak everyday at first. I would even consider playing him over EE at this point.

[GD]

For some reason, he's gotten equal opportunities against LHP and RHP (exactly 60 PA vs each), and for some reason, he's done well against both

 

Just randomness. I wouldn't expect Valencia to continue his production vs RHP

[TwistedLogic]

Just randomness. I wouldn't expect Valencia to continue his production vs RHP

 

And I would hope the team doesn't expect it going forward either.

[GD]

And I would hope the team doesn't expect it going forward either.

 

Hope being the operative word unfortunately

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Dude this post is embarrassingly bad.

 

Playing Valencia in LF and allowing him to face righties half the time... that is not using him well at all.

 

Actually Valencia has been incredibly lucky vs righties so far, and he looks bad in the OF (mildly better than Colabello).

 

Is he great in LF? No. But he's still providing great offence. His defence there is better than Cola's. He's what we have when facing certain pitching and until Saunders is healthy...if that ever happens.

[BigCecil]

How exactly do you guys define the closing of the proverbial "window"? Two years ago, we were to assume that the window was closing, due to an "aging Bautista". If an aging Bautista is giving you a 149 wRC+ at 34 years old, then Martin at 31 and Reyes and Edwin at 32 should all continue to be valuable for several more years, shouldn't they? 2014 was a "last chance" year before the books began to close on Edwin and Jose. To offset that, we now have Jesus Donaldson for four more years, and Russell Martin for five. We've replaced the wildly unpredictable Rasmus with Pillar, who at worst will give you defense you can count on, and we've replaced four half-seasons of control over Lawrie with six years of Devon Travis.

 

Marcus Stroman will be back at some point, Daniel Norris is knocking on the door again, several people on this forum swear that Aaron Sanchez was showing signs of improvement, Roberto Osuna has shown a clear ability to K major league bats at just 20 years old, and this franchise is finally showing some signs of life in their bats in the minor leagues.

 

Why the hell is the window expected to be closing again?

 

Fair points. Its a matter of risk and probabilities. Age doesn't guarantee a reduction in production but there is often a correlation to age/injury and decline.

 

Edwin and Jose B are signed on under market deals through 2016 barring extension and both are/have battled injuries. Jose missed a significant component of 2 seasons (12 and 13). He has a having a great 2015 so far. Edwin, so far, hasn't been E-Rex consistently.

 

I think age and wear has affected Reyes on both O and D and his DL CV is extensive. His BB rate decline is concerning to me. We are likely stuck with him to end of term and have no replacement regardless.

 

Martin plays the toughest position physically of all of them at 32. He and had an outlier yr production wise 2014 he looks to be continuing it this season.

 

Stro looked solid, but small sample size. Norris knocking at door? I must have missed his dominance in Buff? He is knocking at the door because they just showed Boyd it. Osuna looks great. Sanchez is a big question mark to most.

 

I love the JD deal and the control is one reason why...but its a fact that we made the deal with our developing talent.

 

Easy to dis Rasmus as he was frustrating, but he put up a 5 fWAR 2013 for us. Who knows if Pillar will be predictable on D/O yet.

 

I'm not panicking. I think this is a year to make a move(s). Next year we could be fine without making any deals 2015, but more risks imo.

 

I don't think anyone turns into a pumpkin at midnight. I just don't know whats magical about next year when we are right there this season. Guys who have argued we need to tap some off season solid FA arms Im totally on board with. We just haven't been able to execute that outcome well to date.

Edited July 6, 2015 by BigCecil

[Frenchsoup]

Dude this post is embarrassingly bad.

 

Playing Valencia in LF and allowing him to face righties half the time... that is not using him well at all.

 

Actually Valencia has been incredibly lucky vs righties so far, and he looks bad in the OF (mildly better than Colabello).

 

This

[Jimcanuck]

Jays are once again a .500 team at ASB. Unlikely they can win this year without improving the pitching in a major way. So the question becomes, move prospects for immediate pitching help and try to win now, or move valuable roster players for prospects and try to win sometime in the future ie. a) going all in, or the sustainable approach. It's for me.

[CrackerJack]

Jays are once again a .500 team at ASB. Unlikely they can win this year without improving the pitching in a major way. So the question becomes, move prospects for immediate pitching help and try to win now, or move valuable roster players for prospects and try to win sometime in the future ie. a) going all in, or the sustainable approach. It's for me.

 

well it kind of depends on exactly which prospect(s) you have to move to get exactly which pitcher(s).

 

if the price is too high then no.

 

if the price is reasonable then yes.

[pat_borders]

9 teams, and it's because it's a fun league and great team to cheer for. I don't wear mine everywhere, but I wear my Jays stuff everywhere. Is that as weird as f***?

 

TOR, HAM & OTW don't coun't because this is basically Bills territory

[Smokey]

Jays are once again a .500 team at ASB. Unlikely they can win this year without improving the pitching in a major way. So the question becomes, move prospects for immediate pitching help and try to win now, or move valuable roster players for prospects and try to win sometime in the future ie. a) going all in, or the sustainable approach. It's for me.

 

Interesting... Just a couple of weeks ago you were saying things like...

 

based on RD the Jays should be leading the AL

 

So how is it that such a great team is suddenly unlikely to overcome a 2 game deficit??

[jaysfan2014]

Jays are once again a .500 team at ASB. Unlikely they can win this year without improving the pitching in a major way. So the question becomes, move prospects for immediate pitching help and try to win now, or move valuable roster players for prospects and try to win sometime in the future ie. a) going all in, or the sustainable approach. It's for me.

 

And most of the AL East is also picking (excluding Tampa, which I expect a fire sale.)

 

-Yanks are said to be not interested in selling the farm for big names, especially being in a transition period right now towards when A-Rod, Sabathia and Tex become free agents/retire, looking to build from within with guys like Judge, Severino, and others. Could add a backend starter, though.. and maybe a 2B.

 

-Orioles are in a tough situation.. going all in now risks the team being really awful next year, as it the O's stand to lose most of their core, as Chen, Davis, Wieters, Pearce, Hunter are free agents, and Tillman could also be on the list, as he is a non-tender candidate with his horrible season(good thing they didn't extend him!), and Peter Angelos is a cheapskate, not willing to resign these guys, especially considering he needs to save money for Machado's HUGE extension or arb raise coming. They also have a decision to make on top prospect Dylan Bundy, who due to being grandfathered from the previous draft rules and an early callup, plus endless DL stints, is out of options, and has yet to perform in the minors.. Andrew Brackman, anyone?). Plus, the O's farm isn't actually that strong.. Hunter Harvey is hurt, Wright and Wilson have already been used at the MLB level (with mixed results), and most of their prospects rank average to below average at best.. they don't have a lot of currency to deal without hurting the MLB roster.

 

-Rays.. I expect either no moves or a fire sale, as the franchise is facing significant financial tumult (and yes I am aware of revenue sharing and TV money) because of poor attendance, ownership rumored to want to sell the team to owners in Montreal to relocate the team, as rumored last offseason, no signs of a new stadium coming, which will likely cause ownership to pull the plug on the team, similar to what happened to the Expos, and overall mediocrity despite strong pitching. This last week has shown signs that this Rays team is going to be out of it by the All-Star break, especially with a tough sked coming up this week with the Royals and Astros. And BTW, by fire sale, I mean dealing anyone making significant money (Longoria, DeJesus, Loney, McGee, Jepsen.. heck, even Forsythe is a trade candidate as he will see a substantial arb raise in 2016, which will be far beyond what the Rays can afford).

 

-Jays.. AA needs to add a LF and at least one (maybe two SP). But preferably, we need someone who will resign with the Jays, or someone under cost control for multiple years. A bullpen arm would help too. The money's there.. but do we really want to deal more talent, especially after the Donaldson deal? But we need to do something.. but I am against going after a pending free agent for significant prospect cost, especially if he doesn't resign with Toronto.) They are NOT out of it, despite what some people say on this board.. but they MUST make a move this deadline, especially for a SP.

 

-Red Sox.. Their recent rebound will mean less chance of selling, but they could still look to add a cost controlled starter, as rumored by Boston media. But it won't be Hamels.. Boston can't afford to blow up its farm for a guy like that, especially if he ties up the payroll and ends up mediocre in the AL.. they already have an albatross in Rick Porcello as is. Otherwise, they also need to find a natural 1B.. Napoli isn't going to cut it anymore. They could buy or sell here, depending what happens in the coming weeks in the AL East and wild card, which lacks extraordinarily strong or weak teams.

[Atothe]

Idk if the jays are good enough but I'm willing to bet the farm on them. Too much impact talent producing down there. If they do trade prospects I'd rather they trade Hoffman instead of Norris (preference)

[RealAccountant]

Jays are once again a .500 team at ASB. Unlikely they can win this year without improving the pitching in a major way. So the question becomes, move prospects for immediate pitching help and try to win now, or move valuable roster players for prospects and try to win sometime in the future ie. a) going all in, or the sustainable approach. It's for me.

 

Neither just like the last 10 years

[RealAccountant]

What exactly would be the point of AA holding on to the prospects. If any of them do end up becoming significant players it won't be under AA as GM.

[LTR]

Buehrle hasn't given up more than 2 runs in his last 6 starts and has only gone less than 7 IP once. Here's hoping we can score at least 2 runs off Sale.

[BigCecil]

Buehrle hasn't given up more than 2 runs in his last 6 starts and has only gone less than 7 IP once. Here's hoping we can score at least 2 runs off Sale.

 

Hate facing that guy. Sale is filthy. Lets hope Valencia and Smoak (from right side) are in the line up.