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Posted
Such a high salary though. Can't imagine there's no generic high Sw-Str guy out there.

 

and there is one guy in the org who cares about that. I can't see the Jays looking outside "proven closers or maybe set up guys" in improving the pen. If you are going to trade for a bullpen guy...do it sooner rather than later, so you can get some legit innings out of them.

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Verified Member
Posted
Clippard's been awful this year. Lots of flyballs and lower K rate. If you can get him for nothing, then fine, but don't give up an asset.

 

This. Absolute fly ball pitcher at RC... makes perfect sense.

Posted
Travis > Lawrie

 

hmmm. Why would you say that already? I like what I've seen from Travis but he is 24 and played a handful of MLB games spending time on the DL which is an issue for Lawrie.

 

Lawrie's D is + (at 3rd...where he wouldn't be playing) even if he looks to be a .700 ish OPS offensive avg ceiling. Lawrie's K rate has shot up this season.

 

He looked good but I don't think we can be sure Travis can stick yet. Small sample size. With Lawrie at least we know what he can do, and cant.

Posted
Here's a question. Would anyone trade Devon Travis for Brett Lawrie straight up? I wouldn't but I want to be sure I'm right. It would be funny though to basically insert Gose into the Donaldson trade to make it look that much worst.

 

In a heartbeat, Lawrie is the man

Old-Timey Member
Posted

Lawrie just seems so, so so so bad this year. I don't care about his negative defensive metrics cause we can all see otherwise and it hasn't been a big enough sample to be determinant, but he's putting up a 101 wRC+ on a .355 BABIP. He's walking less than 4% of the time and he's striking out 26.8% of the time when he's never been above 20. His Whiff% has shot up to 13.4%.

 

Even assuming Travis is a league average 2B might actually be better than Lawrie right now, and even if/when he regresses I think Travis is better than average.

Posted
Lawrie just seems so, so so so bad this year. I don't care about his negative defensive metrics cause we can all see otherwise and it hasn't been a big enough sample to be determinant, but he's putting up a 101 wRC+ on a .355 BABIP. He's walking less than 4% of the time and he's striking out 26.8% of the time when he's never been above 20. His Whiff% has shot up to 13.4%.

 

Even assuming Travis is a league average 2B might actually be better than Lawrie right now, and even if/when he regresses I think Travis is better than average.

 

That's fair, thanks. good perspective.

Posted
Lawrie just seems so, so so so bad this year. I don't care about his negative defensive metrics cause we can all see otherwise and it hasn't been a big enough sample to be determinant, but he's putting up a 101 wRC+ on a .355 BABIP. He's walking less than 4% of the time and he's striking out 26.8% of the time when he's never been above 20. His Whiff% has shot up to 13.4%.

 

Even assuming Travis is a league average 2B might actually be better than Lawrie right now, and even if/when he regresses I think Travis is better than average.

 

Combine the fact that Lawrie seems to be drifting further and further away from offensive competence with the way he's always seemed like a high maintenance player and it's pretty hard to muster much desire to bring him back. Right now, it kind of feels like the Jays got out of the Lawrie business just before the bottom fell out. That might not be the case but let Oakland find that out for themselves.

Posted (edited)
Combine the fact that Lawrie seems to be drifting further and further away from offensive competence with the way he's always seemed like a high maintenance player and it's pretty hard to muster much desire to bring him back. Right now, it kind of feels like the Jays got out of the Lawrie business just before the bottom fell out. That might not be the case but let Oakland find that out for themselves.

 

Ya, its hard to say. The kid had so much talent. He is still young but it certainly seems now to be the way you describe it. I had such high hopes when he burst on to the scene putting up that .950 OPS over 150 ABs back in 2011.

 

Watched Gravemen pitch last night. Didn't look at the numbers yet but he looked pretty good. He was the piece BB wanted.

Edited by BigCecil
Posted

Lawrie gets off to a slow start and you're all jumping off the bandwagon? He's been on fire lately and would be an absolute terror on this team with his balls to the wall play style.

 

Brett Lawrie's last 148PA's;

 

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[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray]Date[/TH]

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[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]Pos[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]PA[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]H[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]2B[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]3B[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]HR[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]R[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]RBI[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]SB[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]CS[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BB%[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]K%[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]ISO[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BABIP[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]AVG[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]OBP[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]SLG[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]wOBA[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]wRC+[/TH]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgRow]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Total[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]- - -[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]- - -[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]- - -[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]- - -[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]148[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]42[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]9[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]12[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]14[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]4.1 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]25.0 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].149[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].380[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right].298[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].331[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].447[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].340[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]122[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Devo Travis' 2015 season;

Export Data

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[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray]Team[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray]Opp[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BO[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]Pos[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]PA[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]H[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]2B[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]3B[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]HR[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]R[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]RBI[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]SB[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]CS[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BB%[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]K%[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]ISO[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BABIP[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]AVG[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]OBP[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]SLG[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]wOBA[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader rgHeaderOver, bgcolor: gray, align: right]wRC+[/TH]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgRow]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Total[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]- - -[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]- - -[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]- - -[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]- - -[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]146[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]36[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]10[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]24[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]26[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]7.5 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]18.5 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].233[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].293[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right].271[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].336[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].504[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].364[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]134[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

 

 

Plus think of all the amazing JD/Lawrie gifs that we'd get!

Posted
I picked the number of games to equal Travis PA's from 2015. Not really random at all. If I wanted to cherry pick I would've made it smaller as Lawrie's been on a n absolute tear.
Posted
I've never been a Lawrie guy, and that tear he's been on is not sustainable numbers (25% K Rate, low BB rate, high BABIP). That said I still think that Lawrie is probably a better player (and hitter) for at least this year and next. I just don't make the trade because Devon is min contract.
Posted
I just think it's funny that if someone suggested Travis for Lawrie 5 months ago they'd have been ridiculed but now that Lawrie had a bad start and Devo a hot one they've completely flip flopped. TheHurl pretty much nailed it but Lawrie isn't getting his due in this thread.
Old-Timey Member
Posted
Lawrie gets off to a slow start and you're all jumping off the bandwagon? He's been on fire lately and would be an absolute terror on this team with his balls to the wall play style.

 

Brett Lawrie's last 148PA's;

 

[TABLE=class: rgMasterTable, width: 977]

[TR]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray]Date[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray]Team[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray]Opp[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BO[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]Pos[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]PA[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]H[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]2B[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]3B[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]HR[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]R[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]RBI[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]SB[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]CS[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BB%[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]K%[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]ISO[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BABIP[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]AVG[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]OBP[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]SLG[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]wOBA[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]wRC+[/TH]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgRow]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Total[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]- - -[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]- - -[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]- - -[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]- - -[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]148[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]42[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]9[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]12[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]14[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]4.1 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]25.0 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].149[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].380[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right].298[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].331[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].447[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].340[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]122[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Devo Travis' 2015 season;

Export Data

[TABLE=class: rgMasterTable, width: 977]

[TR=bgcolor: #E5E5E5]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray]Date[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray]Team[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray]Opp[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BO[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]Pos[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]PA[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]H[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]2B[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]3B[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]HR[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]R[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]RBI[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]SB[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]CS[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BB%[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]K%[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]ISO[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BABIP[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]AVG[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]OBP[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]SLG[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]wOBA[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader rgHeaderOver, bgcolor: gray, align: right]wRC+[/TH]

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[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Total[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]- - -[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]- - -[/TD]

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[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]- - -[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]146[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]36[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]10[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]24[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]26[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]7.5 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]18.5 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].233[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].293[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right].271[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].336[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].504[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].364[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]134[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

 

 

Plus think of all the amazing JD/Lawrie gifs that we'd get!

 

148 PA of .380 BABIP with bad peripherals. Travis .293 BABIP with very good peripherals. Very, very different.

Posted
I picked the number of games to equal Travis PA's from 2015. Not really random at all. If I wanted to cherry pick I would've made it smaller as Lawrie's been on a n absolute tear.

 

lmao, did you not read the stats that you yourself posted? Travis was walking nearly twice as much as Lawrie is. Travis' BB/K rate is 0.41, Lawrie's is 0.14. Travis has a 134 wRC+ over Lawrie's 122, despite having a .292 BABIP to Lawrie's .380.

 

Beyond the numbers, you can also take into account Lawrie's disgusting swing mechanics that have held him back for years and limited him to being a streaky hitter, and Travis' advanced approach at the plate.

 

I do think Lawrie's defense can keep him at the major league level for a long time, whereas if Travis struggles with the bat, he might not find the same playing time. I even think there will be times where Lawrie is a more valuable player. With all that said, I would not this trade. Not only because, as Hurl stated, there's a large difference in service time, but because I believe that Travis will be the better, more consistent player in the long term.

Posted
148 PA of .380 BABIP with bad peripherals. Travis .293 BABIP with very good peripherals. Very, very different.

 

got to live and die with the projections though. Travis with projections between a 93 and 98 wRC moving forward...Lawrie 102 to 104 at a more premium position and better baserunning.

 

This isn't pointed at you, but it's fun to watch those that noted every good thing in Lawrie previously and look for the bad now.

Posted
148 PA of .380 BABIP with bad peripherals. Travis .293 BABIP with very good peripherals. Very, very different.

 

Biggest difference is that Travis hasn't had to make adjustments at the MLB level. He isn't going to have a steady performance in his rookie season and who knows how he'll perform when MLB pitchers adjust. Lawrie tends to start slow and then heat up for the 2nd half and he is following that trend again this year. Sure his BABIP is high and you can expect big-time regression there but he's making hard contact at an above average rate and hitting the ball on a line. All signs point to a strong 2nd half for Lawrie if he can stay on the field where as Devo is a giant question mark with mediocre defence.

Posted
lmao, did you not read the stats that you yourself posted? Travis was walking nearly twice as much as Lawrie is. Travis' BB/K rate is 0.41, Lawrie's is 0.14. Travis has a 134 wRC+ over Lawrie's 122, despite having a .292 BABIP to Lawrie's .380.

 

Beyond the numbers, you can also take into account Lawrie's disgusting swing mechanics that have held him back for years and limited him to being a streaky hitter, and Travis' advanced approach at the plate.

 

I do think Lawrie's defense can keep him at the major league level for a long time, whereas if Travis struggles with the bat, he might not find the same playing time. I even think there will be times where Lawrie is a more valuable player. With all that said, I would not this trade. Not only because, as Hurl stated, there's a large difference in service time, but because I believe that Travis will be the better, more consistent player in the long term.

 

Travis has a month of MLB experience. I'm happy with the way he has performed and feel as if he will have a decent MLB career but a month long sample shouldn't markedly change your opinion of him.

Posted
Travis has a month of MLB experience. I'm happy with the way he has performed and feel as if he will have a decent MLB career but a month long sample shouldn't markedly change your opinion of him.

 

2 months changed how many viewed Lawrie for the next 4 years

Old-Timey Member
Posted
This is purely speculative but I find RoS projections are very slow to change, I remember thinking that last year as well. 200 PA, for certain things, is significant. 60 PA is indicative for K%.
Posted
They should change when provided with relevant information.

 

They do. The relative information is just less meaningful than you've deemed it.

Posted
They should change when provided with relevant information.

 

the projections don't believe in Travis' power, the only one I might disagree with is walk rate for him. K-rates are rightfully projected lower than they have been. I don't think the projections are that off though.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
the projections don't believe in Travis' power, the only one I might disagree with is walk rate for him. K-rates are rightfully projected lower than they have been. I don't think the projections are that off though.

 

xISO believes Travis is a .200 ISO guy. Believes in Lawrie too though, although that won't materialize cause of his home park. They might be similar assets right now but there are way more red flags in Lawrie's game right now.

Posted
the projections don't believe in Travis' power, the only one I might disagree with is walk rate for him. K-rates are rightfully projected lower than they have been. I don't think the projections are that off though.

 

There isn't really any reason to believe Travis is going to out slug the projections.

Posted
Lawrie (2012-2014)

 

Pre All Star Break: .717 OPS

Post All Star Break: .729 OPS

 

Also, he has many less ABs Post All Star than Pre All Star as he tends to get hurt. And then hurt again. And again. And again.

 

Much like Travis, actually.

 

Lawrie's a turd. Dude changed his hitting mechanics the wrong way, and now he's a streaky "power" guy, when he should have gone the opposite direction and focused on becoming a contact singles/doubles machine. "I'm having trouble making contact, so let me open up, so I can pull off the ball more." Lawrie's a dumb douche.

 

Career 1st half wRC+ = 94

Career 2nd half wRC+ = 114

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