Predict the rookies #'s...

[Spanky99]

It was a bad trade...but it wasn't made for value it was made to get rid a perceived clubhouse problem

 

K................

[Muck Bartinez]

It was a bad trade...but it wasn't made for value it was made to get rid a perceived clubhouse problem

 

7.5 MIL for a platoon player that has zero positional flexibility and a huge injury risk doesn't have much value. I don't see a scenario where the jays regret that one.

[Spanky99]

7.5 MIL for a platoon player that has zero positional flexibility and a huge injury risk doesn't have much value. I don't see a scenario where the jays regret that one.

 

Pleeeeeeeaaase.

[Spanky99]

7.5 MIL for a platoon player that has zero positional flexibility and a huge injury risk doesn't have much value. I don't see a scenario where the jays regret that one.

 

It was 6 million as the buyout was a sunk cost, plus his platoon player Mayberry Jr. could've played 1B/LF/CF/and RF in a pinch? No need for Valencia or Tolleson. For a 4.5 million dollar RP/Swingman? Yeah, very bright!

[Spanky99]

Really f***ing dumb trade.

[Spanky99]

A killer 1B platoon for under 10 million would've been sick. Not to mention pitching depth wouldn't have changed.

[Spanky99]

Well, no. As to the decision to pick up the option, the $1.5M was a sunk cost, and wouldn't be considered. But he was simply speaking to the amount owed to Lind, as it related to the value he'd pull in a trade. In that instance, the full $7.5M on the books is relevant.

 

Thanks Moogy, I'm aware. The trade was still awful.

[o2cui2i]

I can see a scenario where Cecil sucks closing and Castro becomes the new closer. he's untouchable when he's on and he looks like he is in "I've got this s***" mode every time he toes the rubber.

[ElNik2013]

Isn't Lind projected for like 1 fWAR this season?

 

 

Jays decided they wouldn't pick-up Lind's option so they started shopping him around and Estrada was likely the best they were offered.

 

Do the Jays trade Happ without having Estrada as depth?

I remember most sober posters at the time saying that either Happ or Estrada would have to be moved and that's what happened.

 

 

Anyway...

[glory]

The Lind trade was fine. The only way it looks bad is if Navarro is DH. Smoak/Valencia for 2.6m should be good value.

[closetjaysfan]

Pitchers

 

Norris 160 IP - 2.0 fWAR (solid to all-star caliber but with a couple rough patches)

Sanchez 100 IP - 1.0 fWAR (ends up in bullpen before mid June)

Castro 50 IP - 0.4 fWAR

Osuna 40 IP - 0.3 fWAR (gets sent down, comes back for expanded roster)

 

Batters

 

Travis 475 PA - 1.5 fWAR

Pompey 400 PA - 0.8 fWAR

 

Total - 6.0

[Brownie19]

Norris - 165 IP, 3.84 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.7 K/9

Sanchez - 111 IP, 3.98 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.2 K/9

Castro - 65 IP, 3.55 ERA, 9.6 K/9

Osuna - 40 IP, 2.82 ERA, 9.2 K/9

 

Travis - 450 PA .268/.325/.405 7HR, 6SB

Pompey - 400 PA .238/.298/.388 5HR, 18SB

[Nafro]

Daniel Norris 185 IP 3.5 fWAR

Aaron Sanchez 140 IP 1.1 fWAR

Miguel Castro 70 IP 1.2 fWAR

Roberto Osuna 50 IP 0.9 fWAR

 

Devon Travis 480 PA 1.8 fWAR

Dalton Pompey 500 PA 2.0 fWAR

[AdamGreenwood]

6 rookies have come north with the team...most of them drawn polarizing responses from the board. I think we need some documentation. Predict their fWAR for the season and PA's for hitters, IPs for pitchers. Feel free to include any other stats/numbers you wish.

 

 

Norris: 147 innings 2.1 fWAR

Sanchez: 168 innings: 0.7 fWAR

Castro: 38 innings: 0.3 fWAR

Osuna: 45 innings: 0.6 fWAR

 

Travis 320 PA: -0.3 fWAR

Pompey: 612 PA: 2.7 fWAR

[Olerud363]

6 rookies have come north with the team...most of them drawn polarizing responses from the board. I think we need some documentation. Predict their fWAR for the season and PA's for hitters, IPs for pitchers. Feel free to include any other stats/numbers you wish.

 

 

 

 

Overly optimistic predictions follow:

 

Pitchers

 

Norris 11-8 3.77 177 ip, 190 k, 3 WARs

 

Sanchez 7-9 4.33 120 ip, .8 WAR

 

Castro 60 IP - 77 k - 1 WAR

Osuna 120 IP - 133 K -3 WAR (replaces Sanchez)

 

 

Travis .309 12 65 rbizzz - 3 WAR

 

Pompey .277 .377 .408 excellent D - 4 WARzzzzz

[baloojayz]

Mostly agree.

Disagree about Sanchez and Osuna...Sanchez lack of command will elevate his ERA and Osuna will end up back in the minors to develop, where he belongs..

 

Stroman being injured is the only reason Sanchez is getting a look at starting. If he doesn't run with it here, I say he goes back to the BP rather than to the minors for another shot at SP. I see Sanchez's spot in the rotation either being taken by Trade, Santana, Estrada, Osuna (in order of preference).

[JohnnyLonghorn]

I agree with Spanky. Sure Lind didn't provide much flexibility and was essentially a platoon player, but the guy was an elite hitter against RHP and I feel our lineup could really use a left handed bat with our 2-5 hitters all hitting from the right side. Also, Smoak is probably replacement level at best and this team still has no viable DH option. Risky business having your backup catcher filling that role.

 

Norris - 137 IP 4.17 ERA 2.0 WAR

Sanchez 148 IP 4.55 ERA 1.5 WAR

 

Osuna - 61 IP 3.64 ERA 0.7 WAR

Castro - 49 IP 3.36 ERA 0.8 WAR

 

Travis - 400 PA .255/.318/.408 1.3 WAR

Pompey - 580 PA .236/.301/.396 1.9 WAR

Edited April 7, 2015 by JohnnyLonghorn

[Daniel Labude]

Stroman being injured is the only reason Sanchez is getting a look at starting. If he doesn't run with it here, I say he goes back to the BP rather than to the minors for another shot at SP. I see Sanchez's spot in the rotation either being taken by Trade, Santana, Estrada, Osuna (in order of preference).

You realize once Stroman got hurt Gibbons said Sanchez was in the rotation and the 5th spot was between Norris and Estrada. So Sanchez was going to start regardless.

[TheHurl]

Batters

 

Pompey 155 PA - 0 fWAR (70 wRC...positive defense)

 

.

 

Figured that even without a good option around they wouldn't be patient with him. He was doing better than I predicted and they gave him half the PA's that I thought.

[Boxcar]

There's no way he is down for good.

 

How are you doing with all this bad news today, buddy?

[TheHurl]

There's no way he is down for good.

 

No but I think they explore trade options right now (Jarrod Dyson might have made sense but Rios isn't back for a month, panic move and deal with Dodgers is my favourite move now). And I can see them giving Pompey a solid 2 months unless he tears it up down there. My point still was that they would be impatient with him despite not having any potential replacements.

[baubau]

Figured that even without a good option around they wouldn't be patient with him. He was doing better than I predicted and they gave him half the PA's that I thought.

 

Are ya a wizard?

 

No but I think they explore trade options right now (Jarrod Dyson might have made sense but Rios isn't back for a month, panic move and deal with Dodgers is my favourite move now). And I can see them giving Pompey a solid 2 months unless he tears it up down there. My point still was that they would be impatient with him despite not having any potential replacements.

 

I think they've been impatient with a lot of players going over the last year.

[Angrioter]

bump

[Olerud363]

bump

 

The lesson is nobody can predict this s*** for one player. that is why I'm not as big a fan of the Donaldson trade as most... I think a positive surprise among Lawrie/Baretto/Gravemen will give Donaldson 30-32 a run... and the other pieces will sway the trade in the As favour.

 

The predictions are just random even for the smart guys (JFAS). Nobody knew weather it would be Pompey or Travis, Osuna or Castor, Sanchez or Norris that would stick....

 

I think if the Jays just stuck with everybody Norris, Castor and Pompey would rebounded to match the predictions.

 

Looks like the major problem is this...

 

The Jays are stupid. The players that stuck are the ones that had a good april. The other guys didn't get a chance to hit the predictions.

 

So I think maybe the smart guys (JFAS, Hurl) are smart enough... they just can't predict who will have a good April and get a chance at May... nobody could really.

[LTR]

LOL @ Norris predictions... talk about nose diving.