Osuna made the team

[ElNik2013]

wainwright was older. I get it, but Castro shouldn't be penalized because he's younger and exhibiting quality at such a young age. Wainwright pitched less than 80 innings as an 18 year old and pitched 164.2 innings as a 19 year old. Castro and Osuna can both be transitioned to starters next year. Just because you told me something, doesn't mean I agreed with you before or should now..lol.

 

It's seems like a sin to you guys that the Jays are trying to win this year. Shame on them. It's been over 20 years....we can be patient.lol.

 

I just opened a fantastic shiraz cab blend. It's a 2011...a little tight. It certainly will be marginally better in a few years, but it's so good right now, why would I wait? Same thing with Castro.

 

 

It would make more sense for a team that lost its best SP and is trying to win this year, to have them start the year at AA and promote them to Buffalo if they get off to a strong start. Then they'd provide sorely-lacking SP depth.

[saskjayfan]

It would make more sense for a team that lost its best SP and is trying to win this year, to have them start the year at AA and promote them to Buffalo if they get off to a strong start. Then they'd provide sorely-lacking SP depth.

 

I do understand what you are saying. I'm surprised they both made the team. I thought Osuna would be in the minors. Alex is clearly gambling.

[KingKat]

They've all been there for almost a month. Thinking they've been judged on the few innings they've pitched alone does not compute.

 

They've been where for a month? West and Guilmet were assigned to MiLB camp almost immediately.

[Governator]

I believe it was Wilner that said it wasn't Gibbons decision to cut Delabar, I think AA is pulling his own strings on the 20yr olds.

[BTS]

So we're worrying about 8 years from now?

 

Why not? You're talking about less than a run of lost value if you hold him back for service time reasons, and that's IF Castro is good. The extra year of service time comes at no tangible cost.

[Gorlak]

I believe it was Wilner that said it wasn't Gibbons decision to cut Delabar, I think AA is pulling his own strings on the 20yr olds.

 

I would hope so, Roster construction is his job.

[Gorlak]

I would guess the exact opposite. Despite contrary belief, he's not retarded, and would have to be getting a strong endorsement from the coaching staff to keep six rookies on the roster.

 

Especially since it would make a lot more sense to send them down.

 

Coaches/Scouts are just advisors, All final decisions are his. His coaching staff wanted Sanchez to close and Thole on the team.

[RealAccountant]

So we're worrying about 8 years from now?

 

Yes. On a team that hasn't been to the playoffs in 22 years, people are actually worrying about 8 years from now.

[RealAccountant]

If Osuna is ready to be on an MLB roster than he should be the one starting with buddyboy Sanchez as a reliever

[Gorlak]

They'd probably be right on Sanchez if Stroman hadn't been injured. You'd have to show me evidence on Thole.

 

AA knows he's risking a year of control on four very good prospects. If he's doing it against the instruction of his "advisors" then maybe he is retarded.

 

They could very well be right, my point is AA calls the shots right or wrong. There is something be said about opposing conventional wisdom, He is definitely making some unorthodox decisions with or without the coaches support. Time will tell how wise any of the decisions are, Although you can't prove what didn't happen so it could end up open to speculation.

[RealAccountant]

That might be how it ends up by seasons end.

 

This season could potentially end very badly for the jays

[TheHurl]

Thank goodness we have such talented pro scouts to be able to tell us that.

 

Don't forget Martin...he's also making player personnel decisions now. Someone has to think of a way to do a contest predicting all the rookies numbers.

[Dick_Pole]

Why not? You're talking about less than a run of lost value if you hold him back for service time reasons, and that's IF Castro is good. The extra year of service time comes at no tangible cost.

 

There are reasons to be suspect of the move to push these two guys right now but service time several years down the road isn't one of them. There's so much Rays fanboyism here it's rotting some people's minds. This team is owned by Rogers not the poor man living in the shack at the end of the street. If those two young men perform at the MLB level, they'll get paid first at arbitration then heading into free agency and Rogers has the resources and reasonable ability to do so especially once all of AA's brilliant contract trades fall off the books. There's no reason to believe they'll be gone at age 27 or 28. They can be signed to long term deals before that. Plus we'll have 2 CBAs between now and then so who knows what the rules around free agency and comp picks will be by then.

 

I recall that article from several months ago about that study that suggested that players are at their peak potential performance at a young age and just slowly regress from there. If this is true, it'll probably be applicable to two young flamethrowers. These types of guys have an expiry date on them that may be sooner than what we would like. Might as well have those innings logged at the MLB level than wasted in the minors if they are deemed capable maturity/emotionally now.

 

That being said, I would have preferred Delabar make this team and an added bench piece. I put trust in this team's management that they know what they are doing to make the right choice. I may be disappointed as roster management has not been one of AA's bright spots in his career.

[Blue]

It's a risk, but well calculated:

 

AA firmly believes Osuna/Castro gives the team the best chance to win, specifically, racking up those wins early in the year with a tough schedule, mostly against division rivals. The two have a hot spring to transition into the first month of real games; momentum and confidence do matter, not just for players, but the collective hive mind of the Baseball Team. The early season opposition have less information (i.e. stats, video, scouting reports, personal experience) on them to make adjustments out of the gate. This is less true should they start in the minors before being brought up in the standard "need" (e.g. injury or ineffectiveness of other pitchers). Is this enough incremental runs/wins over Delabar/Drabek/Francis/etc.? In the immediate short term, AA says yes, and I can see the argument for it.

 

Having the duo start the season in the majors does not mean they will be up for whole season. Merely 20 days in the minors per season is needed to save a year of control. That will be relatively easy to do should they indeed falter in relief or justified if/when they are called upon to take up a starting job and sent down to "stretch out". In either case, the Jays aren't going anywhere in 2015, those days riding the minor league buses between Small Towns USA are inevitable. Even if there is an IP limit, I'll buy getting 40-60 big league innings out of them now when they are worth the most, then send them down to finish up as starters.

 

Needless to say, exceptional baseball players are the exception to general convention of baseball history. The Jays clearly evaluate Osuna/Castro as outliers, and experts are often wrong, especially in baseball, but they are experts. If they are gambling anything, it's that Osuna/Castro do not have the "makeup" today to be major league relief pitchers, but out of anything I expect these experts to be vastly superior to Average Joe Fan, it's evaluating the mental aspects of their assets. Exceptional players should not drop off the face of the baseball world just because of adversity when they are 20; if they struggle, they are resilient and only take those battered lessons to be ready the next time.

 

As others have stated, young pitchers break our hearts... particularly when they break their arms. Might as well squeeze WAR or whatever comes out of them before that happens.

 

Of course, management could very well could simply be trying to save their jobs, in which case, the above are merely rationalizations for preconceived, selfish, notions. That admitted, their job description includes winning within parameters. We are not privy to those parameters, but suffice it to say, "Flags Fly Forever" is a common thread that we can all relate to, parameters be damned.

[BTS]

There are reasons to be suspect of the move to push these two guys right now but service time several years down the road isn't one of them. There's so much Rays fanboyism here it's rotting some people's minds. This team is owned by Rogers not the poor man living in the shack at the end of the street. If those two young men perform at the MLB level, they'll get paid first at arbitration then heading into free agency and Rogers has the resources and reasonable ability to do so especially once all of AA's brilliant contract trades fall off the books. There's no reason to believe they'll be gone at age 27 or 28. They can be signed to long term deals before that. Plus we'll have 2 CBAs between now and then so who knows what the rules around free agency and comp picks will be by then.

 

I recall that article from several months ago about that study that suggested that players are at their peak potential performance at a young age and just slowly regress from there. If this is true, it'll probably be applicable to two young flamethrowers. These types of guys have an expiry date on them that may be sooner than what we would like. Might as well have those innings logged at the MLB level than wasted in the minors if they are deemed capable maturity/emotionally now.

 

That being said, I would have preferred Delabar make this team and an added bench piece. I put trust in this team's management that they know what they are doing to make the right choice. I may be disappointed as roster management has not been one of AA's bright spots in his career.

 

We're talking less than a month for the service time argument. That's like a fraction of a run for a relief pitcher.

[TheHurl]

Why not? You're talking about less than a run of lost value if you hold him back for service time reasons, and that's IF Castro is good. The extra year of service time comes at no tangible cost.

 

If Castro repeats his minor league stats (that's a huge if)...that probably leaves him right around a top 50 reliever in baseball (assuming he's staying under 70 innings in my scenario). That's pretty good, but also the best case scenario. Nearly a win out of a reliever may be the difference for this team, but I still doubt he outperforms the guys you mentioned earlier, and not a lot of guys can repeat their A Ball numbers in the Majors.

[TheHurl]

It's a risk, but well calculated:

 

AA firmly believes Osuna/Castro gives the team the best chance to win, specifically, racking up those wins early in the year with a tough schedule, mostly against division rivals.

 

Deja vu all over again. At least this time Plan B kind of exists and the cost is a small amount of value years from now, and not 100's of Millions in value lost.

 

I got May 1st for the first Osuna/Castro supporter to call for him to be sent down. Now the interesting question is; where do you send them down to? Nothing like telling a 20 year old that you are ready for the majors, but oops we want you to work on some stuff...in High A (for the warm Florida air if it's pre-June will be the reasoning).

[Dick_Pole]

We're talking less than a month for the service time argument. That's like a fraction of a run for a relief pitcher.

 

And in my convoluted version of the time value of money, one month that's happening right now is worth more than a year 6-7 years from now. If this is the best team to bring north, then it's the team the Jays should be going with. We can question if that is indeed the case right now, but holding what might be the best players back because of the service time argument is annoying.

 

If that one month of Osuna and Castro brings in an extra 0.1 WAR than the Jays team in the alternate universe that has them in the minors and that 0.1 WAR translates to 86.5 wins rounded up to 87 and a playoff spot versus 86.4 wins rounded down to 86 and a missed playoff spot then this Jays team made the right move.

 

Yes, I know my argument is getting ridiculous but I just want to see this team win for once. I haven't felt this good about this team's chances in years. Anybody who is worried about what might happen in 2021 in the context of this team right now needs a punch to the gut.

[RealAccountant]

chee Hurl, you sure wasn't protesting when the fat greek was overlooking serviceable relievers. You and BTS both, praising him, on not spending money on releivers

 

and look at where we are now. Two young arms about to be ruined,

 

There are consequences for failing to acquire depth

[TheHurl]

And in my convoluted version of the time value of money, one month that's happening right now is worth more than a year 6-7 years from now. If this is the best team to bring north, then it's the team the Jays should be going with. We can question if that is indeed the case right now, but holding what might be the best players back because of the service time argument is annoying.

 

If that one month of Osuna and Castro brings in an extra 0.1 WAR than the Jays team in the alternate universe that has them in the minors and that 0.1 WAR translates to 86.5 wins rounded up to 87 and a playoff spot versus 86.4 wins rounded down to 86 and a missed playoff spot then this Jays team made the right move.

 

Yes, I know my argument is getting ridiculous but I just want to see this team win for once. I haven't felt this good about this team's chances in years. Anybody who is worried about what might happen in 2021 in the context of this team right now needs a punch to the gut.

 

And I think 87 wins might win the division. So your math works.

[Dick_Pole]

And I think 87 wins might win the division. So your math works.

 

FWIW I'm calling the Jays to have 86 wins and a playoff spot in that other thread so what I could be saying is a total crock of s***. Wasted win unless it avoids a one-game-and-you're-out scenario.

[TheHurl]

chee Hurl, you sure wasn't protesting when the fat greek was overlooking serviceable relievers. You and BTS both, praising him, on not spending money on releivers

 

and look at where we are now. Two young arms about to be ruined,

 

There are consequences for failing to acquire depth

 

I praised him for the one time he passed up on the 7th course at the buffet. I don't think the arms are going to be ruined. I think he's making a move that doesn't make the team better for the sake of selling a story. I can respect that as it is what sports has become. But it's not smart management. It's not like we are saying AA f***ed up and should have traded for Papelbon instead of this move. We are saying go with Preston Guilmet, as I mentioned earlier this isn't a huge deal as the Jays didn't lose any of the guys that will be replacing these guys upon failure. I have never thought that Pitching will kill the Jays this year. I think not having an ounce of offensive depth in the minors will. They brought a good team (possibly their best possible) to April. I like the Jays chances of being close even as I don't think anyone in the East is overly strong (unless you could magically blend the Jays and Red Sox into one douche filled team as they have the offensive depth that the Jays just don't have)

[fireballW]

Why not? You're talking about less than a run of lost value if you hold him back for service time reasons, and that's IF Castro is good. The extra year of service time comes at no tangible cost.

 

Yikes. Meaningless argument again. They are in the bullpen. There is almost no way the team won't find the time over the next few years to have then down in the minors for a couple weeks. It is really not a concern, they aren't going to waste their year of service time. You'd think you'd know that since you've been following the team for years. The thing AA does consistently well is play the system.

[fireballW]

chee Hurl, you sure wasn't protesting when the fat greek was overlooking serviceable relievers. You and BTS both, praising him, on not spending money on releivers

 

and look at where we are now. Two young arms about to be ruined,

 

There are consequences for failing to acquire depth

 

Did you just say their arms will be ruined Good lord.

[KingKat]

If by immediately you mean three weeks after pitchers and catchers reported, then ya.

 

So your theory is that West and Guilmet pitched themselves out of a job during workouts and such?

[Deadpool]

Yes. On a team that hasn't been to the playoffs in 22 years, people are actually worrying about 8 years from now.

 

You really must be the worst accountant ever... "f*** it, you're poor now, buy that lottery ticket and don't worry about what your asset situation will be like in 8 years!"

[BTS]

Yikes. Meaningless argument again. They are in the bullpen. There is almost no way the team won't find the time over the next few years to have then down in the minors for a couple weeks. It is really not a concern, they aren't going to waste their year of service time. You'd think you'd know that since you've been following the team for years. The thing AA does consistently well is play the system.

 

So the plan is to burn option years on a pair of promising young starters by having them pitch out of the bullpen needlessly in their age-20 season?

[Rusty_Savage]

If Osuna is ready to be on an MLB roster than he should be the one starting with buddyboy Sanchez as a reliever

 

Jesus Christ, you do realize he's coming off TJ surgery and hasn't pitched more then 42 innings/season in his career. How many innings do you think he can pitch this year, anyway?

[KingKat]

i'd guess the competition started from day one.

 

My guess it that it wasn't really a competition at all. AA for whatever reason thought it would be brilliant if these young guys broke camp and the deck was stacked in their favour.

[sachmo55]

It would have been aggressive to promote these guys to AA ball, let alone the majors. Even if they are ready, the jays could have held Castro and osuna down for 2 weeks, and they'd get an extra service year. There better be serious value gained by having them pitch another 5-7 innings each in the majors to start the year.