Norris-mistake for homeless man.

[jayswin11]

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/blue-jays-prospect-daniel-norris-gets-mistaken-for-a-homeless-man-200748168.html

[pat_borders]

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/blue-jays-prospect-daniel-norris-gets-mistaken-for-a-homeless-man-200748168.html

 

my balls are crazy itchy today

[jaysblue]

What are the chances Norris opens the season as the No. 5 starter?

[pat_borders]

What are the chances Norris opens the season as the No. 5 starter?

 

He's probably the best option so I hope 100%

[KingKat]

What are the chances Norris opens the season as the No. 5 starter?

 

I'd say Estrada has a slight edge over him but there's definitely an opportunity there if Estrada falters and Norris doesn't. McGowan probably had longer odds when he ended up taking a job last year.

[pat_borders]

I'd say Estrada has a slight edge over him but there's definitely an opportunity there if Estrada falters and Norris doesn't. McGowan probably had longer odds when he ended up taking a job last year.

 

no he doesn't....Estrada isn't an MLB starter anymore, he's a bullpen arm

[Gorlak]

What are the chances Norris opens the season as the No. 5 starter?

 

my guess would be like 25% for Norris, 35% Sanchez, and 40% Estrada. I think AA is hoping Estrada pitches well and Sanchez gets moved to the pen, with Norris in the minors. He gets to hold back Norris' clock and maybe flip Estrada for something more useful.

[KingKat]

no he doesn't....Estrada isn't an MLB starter anymore, he's a bullpen arm

 

Thanks AA. Any other insights you care to share?

[baubau]

Thanks AA. Any other insights you care to share?

 

Ryan Goins is the next Cano.

[baubau]

Also, doesn't Norris live in his van? Technically he could qualify as homeless.. // being really anal on circumstances //

[HERPDERP]

AA already said Sanchez is in the BP I think?

[Spanky99]

AA already said Sanchez is in the BP I think?

 

When?

[bendera3]

Now when I see homeless people I'm going to think they are #5 starters.

[Dick_Pole]

LOL:

 

"Napping in my van at whole foods. Dude comes up to me with cash saying his brother was homeless for a bit & he's praying for me"

 

I can imagine how this went down.

 

Man: Here you go, laddy (for some reason this man is an old Irish Catholic priest in my vision), my brother was homeless for a bit and I will be prayin' for ya.

 

DM: No thank you, sir. I'm actually a professional baseball pitcher who has a multi-million dollar contract. I might be in the big leagues this year.

 

Man: Ok, son. Suuure you are. You just gets some rest. *calls up 911* Hello, operator...yes ma'am I've encountered a homeless man parked with his van in front of Whole Foods. I suggest you get some authorities here asap....bring some restraints just in case, he's very delusional, possibly in need of his medication and he could be volatile.

[glory]

Estrada is a #4 IMO. Pretty decent 5th starter or depth.

 

Right-handed J.A. Happ. Solid #5 option, and he can slide to the swing man role without complaining should Norris break down the door mid-season.

[pat_borders]

Estrada is a #4 IMO. Pretty decent 5th starter or depth.

 

He's a depth piece, he couldn't hold on to a job in MIL what makes you think the Rogers Centre and the ALE will make him succeed?

[Gorlak]

Park factors and league do not make a pitcher any better or worse.

 

It does effect the results, which matters. Doesn't help the team if his peripherals beat his performance.

[Gorlak]

No it doesn't. The other pitcher we face has the same park and DH.

 

If the other pitcher is a groundball pitcher, He has the advantage. All else being equal it could mean the difference.

[Gorlak]

It's kind of odd that people think Smoak can be a good player because of Rogers centre, but Estrada won't be worse because of Rogers centre.

[GD]

It's kind of odd that people think Smoak can be a good player because of Rogers centre, but Estrada won't be worse because of Rogers centre.

 

This is an invalid line of thought for the same reasons being detailed in regards to Estrada. There are some reasons Smoak may break out, but not because the Rogers Centre affects his value. It's not like RC has any special dimensions that may be valuable to Smoak in particular, more so than anyone else, so it doesn't affect him.

[Gorlak]

Groundball pitchers are not any better than flyball pitchers. Ground balls are better than flyballs, but the two profiles don't have a better version. Flyball pitchers get more K's (more fouls, and SwStr) and infield flies, and groundball pitchers give up worse liners and flies.

 

I agree with all of that, but that is on average and not in a park as homer prone as Rogers centre. I would say that the groundball pitchers have a higher percentage, but fly ball pitchers have the volume. I personally would love to see a stat that is K% + IFFB%, It could be a clean out stat or something. If Estrada has a HR/9 of 1.4 I can't see how he will be useful.

[Key22]

It's kind of odd that people think Smoak can be a good player because of Rogers centre, but Estrada won't be worse because of Rogers centre.

 

AA noted in fan590 that Smoak isn't guaranteed a thing and that he may not make the team. The Jays brass probably hopes he's a late bloomer and perhaps the non-existent expectations will take pressure off him - he's no longer the up and coming top flight prospect but the borderline MLB player who may be on his last shot in the majors kind of thing. Valencia will be a strong candidate. If Justin Smoak 2013 shows up then we should all be pretty happy with that. The guy obviously has talent as he would not have been a prized prospect to begin with. His defense though is not great but his 2013 numbers are in line with Lind in terms of WAR but for $6million less.

 

It's basically Smoak and Estrada for Lind.

 

Estrada has been a solid average pitcher from 2011 to 2014. Other than his high homer allowed rate last season he's been pretty decent. In terms of WAR he has been 1 better than JA Happ since 2011 as well. At worst he's probably just as good as Happ and as a fifth starter/swing man - these guys are incredibly valuable. You need these guys to eat innings - you hope he's not in the rotation but he's likely to be competent when you need them. Estrada is basically Carlos Villanuava 2.0 - similar war and in fact Villanueva gave up 23 homers in 2012 (in 125ip) and plenty wanted the Jays to resign him because he was a fairly low cost excellent swing man.

[Gorlak]

This is an invalid line of thought for the same reasons being detailed in regards to Estrada. There are some reasons Smoak may break out, but not because the Rogers Centre affects his value. It's not like RC has any special dimensions that may be valuable to Smoak in particular, more so than anyone else, so it doesn't affect him.

 

WAR values homeruns, not average fly ball distance, so a hitter friendly park can inflate a players WAR.

[Gorlak]

AA noted in fan590 that Smoak isn't guaranteed a thing and that he may not make the team. The Jays brass probably hopes he's a late bloomer and perhaps the non-existent expectations will take pressure off him - he's no longer the up and coming top flight prospect but the borderline MLB player who may be on his last shot in the majors kind of thing. Valencia will be a strong candidate. If Justin Smoak 2013 shows up then we should all be pretty happy with that. The guy obviously has talent as he would not have been a prized prospect to begin with. His defense though is not great but his 2013 numbers are in line with Lind in terms of WAR but for $6million less.

 

It's basically Smoak and Estrada for Lind.

 

Estrada has been a solid average pitcher from 2011 to 2014. Other than his high homer allowed rate last season he's been pretty decent. In terms of WAR he has been 1 better than JA Happ since 2011 as well. At worst he's probably just as good as Happ and as a fifth starter/swing man - these guys are incredibly valuable. You need these guys to eat innings - you hope he's not in the rotation but he's likely to be competent when you need them. Estrada is basically Carlos Villanuava 2.0 - similar war and in fact Villanueva gave up 23 homers in 2012 (in 125ip) and plenty wanted the Jays to resign him because he was a fairly low cost excellent swing man.

 

Smoak is a flyer that could hit, but most likely will be mediocre or terrible. Estrada has always given up homeruns at an above average rate, but could be a 1.5 win starter. I would also argue Lind would be harder to replace than Smoak or Estrada.

[Gorlak]

No, WAR includes park factors.

 

It does, but it doesn't discount homeruns so much as tax their value. After a few extra homeruns it starts to credit the hitter more and more. Although I may be wrong, my opinion is based on personal anecdotal observations.

[Vdubfan]

I doubt it was intentional on his part, but Norris has created quite the branding power for himself. He could be looking at some great endorsement opportunities in the coming years if he becomes a legit major league SP.

[pat_borders]

I doubt it was intentional on his part, but Norris has created quite the branding power for himself. He could be looking at some great endorsement opportunities in the coming years if he becomes a legit major league SP.

 

 

Or he could be sitting outside of starbucks begging for my change...stop giving these ppl change and they'll GO AWAY!!!

[TheHurl]

Now when I see homeless people I'm going to think they are #5 starters.

 

We probably should go downtown and round them all up and see if any have an arm. Those that can't hit at least 89 on the gun, can work for coins for the board doing odd jobs. Like BBBB's shrink, replacements for no shows at all Yonge and Bloor fights, gaining GD and King some street cred, donating their spine to Spanky. Will help to clean up the streets for the Pan Am's too.

[GD]

We probably should go downtown and round them all up and see if any have an arm. Those that can't hit at least 89 on the gun, can work for coins for the board doing odd jobs. Like BBBB's shrink, replacements for no shows at all Yonge and Bloor fights, gaining GD and King some street cred, donating their spine to Spanky. Will help to clean up the streets for the Pan Am's too.

 

there's odd jobs and then there's these

[bendera3]

We probably should go downtown and round them all up and see if any have an arm. Those that can't hit at least 89 on the gun, can work for coins for the board doing odd jobs. Like BBBB's shrink, replacements for no shows at all Yonge and Bloor fights, gaining GD and King some street cred, donating their spine to Spanky. Will help to clean up the streets for the Pan Am's too.

 

Many of the homeless in Philly are older people who lost their homes when their mental institutions were shut down in the '80s. Thanks Reagen.