Aaron Sanchez Reality Check Thread

[tercet]

He will also not continue to be this bad considering his bb/9 is sitting far above his career line. Yes his .239 season babip is low but its also not a fool proof stat to tell a whole story. As a ground ball pitcher he's going to give up his share of hits but he's consistently produced weak contact that babip doesn't account for. You might not be able to control where a ball goes but if it doesn't leave the infield the odds tip in your favour.

 

Yea he might cut down his walk rate, but his low babip probably isn't sustainable.

[tercet]

Aaron Sanchez tonight

 

Weirdest statline ever, lol

 

0.00era, 0.105babip, 4.87FIP, 5.89xFIP

[Caper]

By some miracle he has managed to have a 3.5~ era this year despite peripherals that including 7 bb/9 and more walks per strikeouts. No pitcher in the history of baseball has succeeded long term with peripherals like that. He will probably not continue to be this lucky.

 

Has any pitcher in history got their walks down?

[tercet]

Jim, you do not understand baseball.

 

I have no problem with admitting if/when Sanchez is a good pitcher. Clearly to date, he has been very lucky, his peripherals are very bad. He will not keep this up.

 

Please stop posting.

[Nafro]

It's SSS and he's been squeezed by the umps. Let's see what happens.

 

Also, Randy Johnson had a season with 6.79 BB/9 and amassed 2.8 WAR.

 

Hmm interesting. I want to check RJ's stats now. Well I hope he can bring it down as time goes by.

 

Of note RJ had a 10+ K/9 and a babip of 0.280. He actualy had two 6+ BB/9 seasons. His career BB/9 was 3.26 though.

[tercet]

Has any pitcher in history got their walks down?

 

Yes plenty have, but when you have control problems this extreme it usually takes a while to improve, with baby steps.

 

If you know a starter over 200ip, that has 7bb/9, 7k/9 with more bb, then k, with a xFIP and FIP under 4.50 in the history of baseball, please post it ITT.

 

Ill send you 50$ on paypal if u can find a pitcher like this by midnight est.

[GD]

looking at Sanchez peers - starters aged 21 -23 with more than 20 IP

 

Archie Bradley - 4.95 BB/9

Daniel Norris - 4.63 BB/9

Carlos Martinez - 4.25 BB/9

Taijuan Walker - 4.76 BB/9

Aaron Sanchez - 7.11 BB/9

 

Yes the BB/9 is on the high side but not abnormally so compared to his peers. He's been squeezed by the ump the last two games. He's had 3 games with 3 BB or less.

 

Some of you need to cut him some slack.

 

looooool wow

[Nafro]

Yes plenty have, but when you have control problems this extreme it usually takes a while to improve, with baby steps.

 

If you know a starter over 200ip, that has 7bb/9, 7k/9 with more bb, then k, with a xFIP and FIP under 4.50 in the history of baseball, please post it ITT.

 

Ill send you 50$ on paypal if u can find a pitcher like this by midnight est.

 

Is that not pretty much impossible because of how those stats are calculated?

[tercet]

Is that not pretty much impossible because of how those stats are calculated?

 

Well my point... Aaron Sanchez will probably not keep this up.

[Jimcanuck]

Is that not pretty much impossible because of how those stats are calculated?

 

exactly right, tercet just hoping to send someone to fangraphs for 2-3 hrs

[Boxcar]

7 kinda looks like a 4 after a few molsons

[Caper]

Well my point... Aaron Sanchez will probably not keep this up.

 

Tonight was a miracle, correct? So you are saying he will have no more games this year where he walks too many, gets out of his jams and gives up 0-2 runs while pitching 6 or 7?

[tercet]

Tonight was a miracle, correct? So you are saying he will have no more games this year where he walks too many, gets out of his jams and gives up 0-2 runs while pitching 6 or 7?

 

Caper, I am guessing that you are not acustom to advanced statistics/fangraphs.

 

Aaron Sanchez tonight had a 105babip, which means that his groundballs were caught and turned into outs by the Blue Jays defense. Over 200 innings a good pitcher will have a 250 babip, most are high 200s. Over the length of multiple starts Aaron Sanchez will have a 250-300 babip, which means that most of Aaron Sanchez ground balls will become singles, doubles etc. Add this to his high walk, and low strikeout rate means that runs will score.

 

Tonight he was unbelievably lucky, and this will not continue over multiple starts.

 

Understand? Please don't be an idiot like Jimcanuck.

[Jimcanuck]

Caper, I am guessing that you are not acustom to advanced statistics/fangraphs.

 

Aaron Sanchez tonight had a 105babip, which means that his groundballs were caught and turned into outs by the Blue Jays defense. Over 200 innings a good pitcher will have a 250 babip, most are high 200s. Over the length of multiple starts Aaron Sanchez will have a 250-300 babip, which means that most of Aaron Sanchez ground balls will become singles, doubles etc. Add this to his high walk, and low strikeout rate means that runs will score.

 

Tonight he was unbelievably lucky, and this will not continue over multiple starts.

 

Understand? Please don't be an idiot like Jimcanuck.

 

The only idiot here is you.

 

Sanchez is going to have bad games like every other 22 yr old, but over the course of the season he will be just fine as a 5th starter.

[King]

lol

[Daniel Labude]

Yes plenty have, but when you have control problems this extreme it usually takes a while to improve, with baby steps.

 

If you know a starter over 200ip, that has 7bb/9, 7k/9 with more bb, then k, with a xFIP and FIP under 4.50 in the history of baseball, please post it ITT.

 

Ill send you 50$ on paypal if u can find a pitcher like this by midnight est.

 

Bob Feller

[tercet]

lol

 

I give up, lol

[tercet]

Bob Feller

 

Uh, no, and this doesn't apply to you.

[Caper]

Aaron Sanchez tonight had a 105babip, which means that his groundballs were caught and turned into outs by the Blue Jays defense. Over 200 innings a good pitcher will have a 250 babip, most are high 200s. Over the length of multiple starts Aaron Sanchez will have a 250-300 babip, which means that most of Aaron Sanchez ground balls will become singles, doubles etc. Add this to his high walk, and low strikeout rate means that runs will score.

 

 

Ok. So I can take from this that you think he will get destroyed the rest of the season?

[Boxcar]

Uh, no, and this doesn't apply to you.

 

1952, 1955. You lose.

[tercet]

Ok. So I can take from this that you think he will get destroyed the rest of the season?

 

More then likely yes he will get destroyed this season.

 

He might make very big improvements, and cut his walks down to 3bb/9 this season for example. But the odds are against that happening given the history of baseball are very small.

[ScientificReason]

More then likely yes he will get destroyed this season.

 

He might make very big improvements, and cut his walks down to 3bb/9 this season for example. But the odds are against that happening given the history of baseball are very small.

 

So your saying guys can never improve? Roy Halladay was awful and sent back to the minors, would have loved to see your responses back them.

[tercet]

1952, 1955. You lose.

 

I intended over 200ip in a season, sorry if I typed that out wrong.

[King]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=200&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=1871&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,d

[ScientificReason]

Caper, I am guessing that you are not acustom to advanced statistics/fangraphs.

 

Aaron Sanchez tonight had a 105babip, which means that his groundballs were caught and turned into outs by the Blue Jays defense. Over 200 innings a good pitcher will have a 250 babip, most are high 200s. Over the length of multiple starts Aaron Sanchez will have a 250-300 babip, which means that most of Aaron Sanchez ground balls will become singles, doubles etc. Add this to his high walk, and low strikeout rate means that runs will score.

 

Tonight he was unbelievably lucky, and this will not continue over multiple starts.

 

Understand? Please don't be an idiot like Jimcanuck.

 

This post clearly shows you don't know what the word most means.

[tercet]

So your saying guys can never improve? Roy Halladay was awful and sent back to the minors, would have loved to see your responses back them.

 

He might improve and make baby steps improvements. But you probably don't go from 7bb/9 to 3bb/9 during a season.

[Daniel Labude]

I intended over 200ip in a season, sorry if I typed that out wrong.

 

Seriously though...Bob Feller 1938 might be the closes someone could get to what you said.

[Boxcar]

I intended over 200ip in a season, sorry if I typed that out wrong.

 

oops

[tercet]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=200&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=1871&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,d

 

I don't see any 7bb/9, with BB>K, 200IP and XFIP&FIP Under 4.50..

[ScientificReason]

He might improve and make baby steps improvements. But you probably don't go from 7bb/9 to 3bb/9 during a season.

 

His 7bb/9 is above his norm......