Rotations

pat_borders · February 8, 2015

I think you can make an argument that any team outside the Yankees could have the best rotation in the east, its filled with young high upside guys with tons of depth.

Orgfiller · February 8, 2015

Did this really need a new thread?

pat_borders · February 8, 2015

Did this really need a new thread?

yes! its fun to talk baseball

NorthOf49 · February 8, 2015

If Tanaka stays healthy (huge if), the Yankees could be good too.

Maahfaace · February 9, 2015

My preditction

Dickey 14-11 3.77 ERA

Hutch 17-9 3.23 ERA 240K

Stroman 20-8 3.02 ERA 5th in AL CY Young voting

Buehrle 10-15 4.55 ERA

Norris 7-4 3.89 ERA TJS after 18 starts

Sanchez 8-9 4.86 ERA 125IP 75BB

Maahfaace · February 9, 2015

Now re-name the thread to Rotation Prediction

jays76 · February 9, 2015

My preditction

Dickey 14-11 3.77 ERA
Hutch 17-9 3.23 ERA 240K
Stroman 20-8 3.02 ERA 5th in AL CY Young voting
Buehrle 10-15 4.55 ERA
Norris 7-4 3.89 ERA TJS after 18 starts
Sanchez 8-9 4.86 ERA 125IP 75BB

I couldn't believe how optimistic you were being until I saw the last 3.

CrackerJack · February 9, 2015

No point in doing an arbitrary prediction when you have projections that will do it better. With that said, you really love Hutch and Stro.

post up the "projections" that you have strong faith in and, when compared to this guy's "arbitrary prediction," it'll be interesting to see which ends up being closer to the mark.

(not that I think Stroman & Hutch will go a combined 37-17 ... tho it would be nice.)

Spanky__99 · February 9, 2015

post up the "projections" that you have strong faith in and, when compared to this guy's "arbitrary prediction," it'll be interesting to see which ends up being closer to the mark.

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=14&players=0

CrackerJack · February 9, 2015

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=14&players=0

well then how accurate was fangraphs with their individual blue jays player projections over (say) the past two seasons?

Spanky__99 · February 9, 2015

well then how accurate was fangraphs with their individual blue jays player projections over (say) the past two seasons?

Have a look yourself.

Deadpool · February 9, 2015

My preditction

Dickey 14-11 3.77 ERA
Hutch 17-9 3.23 ERA 240K
Stroman 20-8 3.02 ERA 5th in AL CY Young voting
Buehrle 10-15 4.55 ERA
Norris 7-4 3.89 ERA TJS after 18 starts
Sanchez 8-9 4.86 ERA 125IP 75BB

Yeah, if Stroman goes 20-8, he's finishing higher than 5th in the CY vote... Voters LOVEZ DEM SUM WINZ!

BigBounceyBlueBalls · February 9, 2015

Stroman

Dickey

Hutch

Buehrle

Norris

This what I hope for to start the season, let it be soo!

CrackerJack · February 9, 2015

Have a look yourself.

My "how did Fangraphs do?" query was somewhat rhetorical ... because ... well ... I ain't that impressed.

I'm no stranger to Fangraphs etc. (and love the baseball nerd sites) but their projections aren't gospel for me (sorry.)

All i'm saying is that I (personally) wouldn't automatically dismiss somebody's "predictions" just because they don't emanate from some sophisticated "projections" system.

In fact, I think that IF

you take a keen bright baseball observer who follows a particular team religiously (watching the games and soaking up tons of relevant info & insights) so that he's very familiar with the players that he's forecasting, and he pays close attention to the stats along with considering a number of other factors about each player, such as:

- age?

- health?

- where the player is in his career? (prime? twilight?) ... maybe it's a contract year?

- what the player's likely role, and playing time, will be this season?

- has anything unique to a player recently arisen? (e.g. a big new adjustment with hitting approach or perhaps the development of a successful new pitch)

THEN

it wouldn't surprise me if knowledgeable Joe or Jane Jays fan can make "arbitrary predictions" about Blue Jays performances that frequently are as accurate (or as inaccurate haha) as the "projections" generated by Fangraphs, ZiPs, PECOTA, CAIRO and Bill James etc.

... (s***, I was buying Bill James' annual Baseball Abstract before many here were even a twinkle in their father's eye, and so I don't have any bias against sabermetrics and baseball analytics.)

Spanky__99 · February 9, 2015

My "how did Fangraphs do?" query was somewhat rhetorical ... because ... well ... I ain't that impressed.

I'm no stranger to Fangraphs etc. (and love the baseball nerd sites) but their projections aren't gospel for me (sorry.)

All i'm saying is that I (personally) wouldn't automatically dismiss somebody's "predictions" just because they don't emanate from some sophisticated "projections" system.

In fact, I think that IF
you take a keen bright baseball observer who follows a particular team religiously (watching the games and soaking up tons of relevant info & insights) so that he's very familiar with the players that he's forecasting, and he pays close attention to the stats along with considering a number of other factors about each player, such as:
- age?
- health?
- where the player is in his career? (prime? twilight?) ... maybe it's a contract year?
- what the player's likely role, and playing time, will be this season?
- has anything unique to a player recently arisen? (e.g. a big new adjustment with hitting approach or perhaps the development of a successful new pitch)
THEN
it wouldn't surprise me if knowledgeable Joe or Jane Jays fan can make "arbitrary predictions" about Blue Jays performances that frequently are as accurate (or as inaccurate haha) as the "projections" generated by Fangraphs, ZiPs, PECOTA, CAIRO and Bill James etc.

... (s***, I was buying Bill James' annual Baseball Abstract before many here were even a twinkle in their father's eye, and so I don't have any bias against sabermetrics and baseball analytics.)

What in the living f*** was that???

You asked the guy for a projections site, I offered one being helpful, you then asked "me" for more insight, I told you have at it, and this is your response? Tinfoil hat much..............

Edited February 9, 2015 by Spanky99

tpurewal97 · February 9, 2015

I really hope Dickey has a good year ..

Angrioter · February 9, 2015

I really hope Dickey has a good year ..

And I hope all my hookers give me a discount. #Imposibru

Dick_Pole · February 10, 2015

My predictions:

Stroman: 32-0 -2.89 ERA. Yeah that's right negative 2.89. Stroman's gonna confuse hitters so much they'll start running backwards to third base and take back team runs when they cross the plate from first.

Hutchison: 428 Strikeouts. Number 384 is gonna come at Houston and Nolan Ryan is going to have a dejected look from his private box.

Angrioter · February 10, 2015

My predictions:

Stroman: 32-0 -2.89 ERA. Yeah that's right negative 2.89. Stroman's gonna confuse hitters so much they'll start running backwards to third base and take back team runs when they cross the plate from first.

Hutchison: 428 Strikeouts. Number 384 is gonna come at Houston and Nolan Ryan is going to have a dejected look from his private box.

http://i.imgur.com/hBdb9iJ.gif

CrackerJack · February 10, 2015

What in the living f*** was that???

You asked the guy for a projections site, I offered one being helpful, you then asked "me" for more insight, I told you have at it, and this is your response? Tinfoil hat much..............

lol

(I shouldn't have quoted your post before because I wasn't really addressing you specifically ... but your link didn't go unappreciated.)

don't know (tho) whether fangraphs is what the guy considers to be the final word on rock solid indisputable Blue Jays projections?

Ehjays · February 10, 2015

Stroman
Dickey
Hutch
Buehrle
Norris

This what I hope for to start the season, let it be soo!

Im not sure the Jays want to start Norris's service time clock so I see Estrada-Sanchise starting the season and Norris taking over the 5 spot in May

Spanky__99 · February 10, 2015

lol

(I shouldn't have quoted your post before because I wasn't really addressing you specifically ... but your link didn't go unappreciated.)

don't know (tho) whether fangraphs is what the guy considers to be the final word on rock solid indisputable Blue Jays projections?

Steamer projections, not fangraphs, but I get your point, they're just projections. The best overall projections, though.

Spanky__99 · February 10, 2015

And I hope all my hookers give me a discount. #Imposibru

Dumn.......Ang.

L54 · February 10, 2015

Projections for prospects, rookies and old players are so close to being meaningless.

So why are you here before the season starts?

Spanky__99 · February 10, 2015

Projections for prospects, rookies and old players are so close to being meaningless.

lol...you brought up projections?

Caper · February 10, 2015

Though this is a pen prediction...I predict Drabek will be a solid contributer this year.

Olerud363 · February 10, 2015

Nope. Lots of minor league data and old players aren't hard to project really. They change more drastically year to year but in season projections work pretty well (for oldies).

If Vernon Wells, Adam Lind or Aaron Hill, or Alex Rios had their worst seasons as rookies everybody would be saying minor league stats are meaningless.

All four of these players have posted .270ish on base percentages and 0 to negative WAR the year after good hitting, 5ish WAR seasons.

Everything goes up and down and up and down....

TDotttt2005 · February 10, 2015

My preditction

Dickey 14-11 3.77 ERA
Hutch 17-9 3.23 ERA 240K
Stroman 20-8 3.02 ERA 5th in AL CY Young voting
Buehrle 10-15 4.55 ERA
Norris 7-4 3.89 ERA TJS after 18 starts
Sanchez 8-9 4.86 ERA 125IP 75BB

AHAH predicting Stro getting CY votes and Tommy John for Norris. No predictions on how many times Dickey cuts himself while trimming his beard?

Zaun of the Dead · February 10, 2015

I am bummed Neil Wagner is no longer with the club. He had some great stuff. I would rather see dirty sanchez pitch out of the 5 spot and have Norris in the bullpen until we see what they both can do. But if Norris wins the spot in ST and sanchez gets bounced to the setup man I'm cool with that. I am not too worried about the bullpen this year, I think the starters have what it takes to pitch a lot of innings. whether or not they execute that remains to be seen though.

xposbrad · February 10, 2015

My predictions:

Stroman: 32-0 -2.89 ERA. Yeah that's right negative 2.89. Stroman's gonna confuse hitters so much they'll start running backwards to third base and take back team runs when they cross the plate from first.

Hutchison: 428 Strikeouts. Number 384 is gonna come at Houston and Nolan Ryan is going to have a dejected look from his private box.

Well, that's definitely a true blue jays fan projection! I have to agree with these.

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