Pitching Depth - How Much is Enough

[Jimcanuck]

Looking at Jays history to estimate the number of starts per available starter including depth starters.

 

No. of starts by pitcher 2014 - 34, 32, 32, 30, 26, 8, 6, 3, 1

2013 - 34, 33, 20, 18, 16, 14, 10, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1

2012 - 32, 31, 21, 16, 16, 13, 11, 9, 6, 3, 2, 2

2011 - 32, 30, 20, 20, 14, 13, 10, 8, 4, 4, 4, 3

2010 - 32, 31, 28, 26, 12, 9, 9, 5, 4, 3, 3

 

5Yr Average - 33, 31, 24, 22, 17, 11, 9, 6, 4, 3, 3, 2, 1

 

MB - 33

RAD - 31

MS - 24

DH - 22

ME - 17

AS - 11

DN - 9

TR - 6

? - 4

? - 3

? - 3

? - 2

? - 1

 

Of course, it could be MS making 33 starts and MB making 24. The point of the exercise is make a realistic estimate of how many starts your depth starters will make. Going by average, Estrada makes 17 starts, Sanchez 11, Norris 9, Redmond 6, and 5 other pitchers make 13 (Jenkins and journeyman AAAA depth).

 

So are you comfortable with the depth?

 

Note that if Happ wasn't traded (good trade) - Estrada has 11 starts instead of 17, and the others all get bumped down.

 

It's not too bad, but the 17 starts by Estrada (could be more if the injury bug hits), and the combined 20 by Sanchez and Norris make me uncomfortable. Very possibly the difference between postseason and not.

 

Note the very atypical health of the Jays starting 5 in 2014.

[L54]

Would really like to add McCarthy. Is comfortably this teams second or third best pitcher (Hutch?). Pushes everyone else down the depth chart.

 

Although, the depth still is pretty good. Not seeing names like Ortiz on there make me happy.

[L54]

Having guys like Sanchez and Norris in AAA should injuries happen is really encouraging. Giving starts to guys who actually have upside is something I don't really ever recall in recent years. Giving starts to AAAA scrap fillers is what has really killed the staff in years prior.

[AdamGreenwood]

Is there a way to sign low quality MLB players to a guaranteed contract, but maintain the right to shuffle them back and forth between MLB and AAA, without letting anyone else poach them?

'

[43211234]

I like the idea of this thread but I think the numbers are skewed a bit by how s***** the rotations have been in the past. Presumably Estrada, Sanchez and Norris will be able to fill in the rotation as long as needed, barring injury. In the past you had some really crappy pitchers getting starts and were removed for another piece of crap because, even as depth, they just weren't cutting it.

 

Guys who have made starts since 2010 include: Ramon Ortiz, Zach Stewart, Brad Mills, Luis Perez, Chien-Ming Wang, Bruce Tallet, Dana Eveland, Joel Carreno, Jesse Chavez (he sucked then), Shawn Hill, Aaron Laffey, Kyle Drabek, Jo-Jo Reyes, Marc Rzepczynski, Esmil Rogers, Jesse Litsch.

 

Those names have made 162 starts over the last five years. Every fifth day since 2010 somebody from the above melting pot of hot garbage has pitched for the Blue Jays.

 

And this doesn't even consider the bad years of Ricky Romero, Josh Johnson's disastrous year, McGowan in the rotation, Henderson Alvarez's bad year, Cecil's bad years in the rotation and others.

 

Their rotation seems to be better this year. I don't think 12 starts will have to come from outside the 8 guys you mentioned. And if they do and I'm sure they could do worse than Roberto Osuna, Miguel Castro and maybe even Jeff Hoffman late in the year.

[nutz003]

Sanchez is likely going to get the first crack at getting 5th man starts ahead of Estrada, based on what Gibbons said today. It sounds like they want to give him his shot out of the gates to see what he has got. I agree with him, I think you have to see how he handles the role as a starter, and then react accordingly based on the results. Best case scenario he is gold and stays in the rotation, worst case he is back in the bullpen or in AAA starting. I am more comfortable with that than having Estrada start 17 games and wonder what Sanchez would have done with them had they given him the shot.

 

Things will obviously change if the Jays acquire another SP though.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/gibbons-happ-deal-means-opportunity-for-sanchez/

[Jimcanuck]

I like the idea of this thread but I think the numbers are skewed a bit by how s***** the rotations have been in the past. Presumably Estrada, Sanchez and Norris will be able to fill in the rotation as long as needed, barring injury. In the past you had some really crappy pitchers getting starts and were removed for another piece of crap because, even as depth, they just weren't cutting it.

 

Guys who have made starts since 2010 include: Ramon Ortiz, Zach Stewart, Brad Mills, Luis Perez, Chien-Ming Wang, Bruce Tallet, Dana Eveland, Joel Carreno, Jesse Chavez (he sucked then), Shawn Hill, Aaron Laffey, Kyle Drabek, Jo-Jo Reyes, Marc Rzepczynski, Esmil Rogers, Jesse Litsch.

 

Those names have made 162 starts over the last five years. Every fifth day since 2010 somebody from the above melting pot of hot garbage has pitched for the Blue Jays.

 

And this doesn't even consider the bad years of Ricky Romero, Josh Johnson's disastrous year, McGowan in the rotation, Henderson Alvarez's bad year, Cecil's bad years in the rotation and others.

 

Their rotation seems to be better this year. I don't think 12 starts will have to come from outside the 8 guys you mentioned. And if they do and I'm sure they could do worse than Roberto Osuna, Miguel Castro and maybe even Jeff Hoffman late in the year.

 

Why would 2015 be any different? Sanchez might not be able to find the strike zone (like Drabek), Norris might get hammered, Dickey get hurt, and again Jays are scraping the barrel. s*** happens. Depth matters.

 

Granted, 5 years is a short sample size.... need about 30 years of data across 6 teams selected at random and use confidence levels to help determine necessary pitching depth.

[Jimcanuck]

I think it's pretty crazy to have Sanchez ahead of Norris on the SP depth chart.

 

Last year:

Norris:

AAA 22 IP, 1.28 SIERA

AA 35.2 IP, 2.78 SIERA

A+ 66.1 IP, 2.66 SIERA

 

Sanchez:

AAA 34.1 IP, 3.99 SIERA

AA 66 IP, 3.93 SIERA

 

It's crazy Sanchez might be the 5th man out of ST. Why take such a huge risk when he could be in a lower pressure AAA environment refining his craft and being available in case of injury.

 

The SP depth sucks.

[nutz003]

I think both Sanchez and Norris will get a shot at starting this year, but perhaps they put Sanchez ahead in the pecking order, because they have seen he has had success getting guys out at the Big League level, as opposed to Norris whom they haven`t really given a shot to yet. Some guys are just big league players and perform better on the big stage than in AAA. Sanchez may be one of those guys. Plus, they seem to like to start them off in the pen, before they let them start (i.e. Stroman and Sanchez).

[nutz003]

Not saying which is the right avenue for Sanchez's development, but just a question to throw out there....

 

Would Sanchez be better off in AAA, having a AAA catcher call his game and face AAA hitters?

or

Would Sanchez be better off getting a shot at starting, and having Russell Martin call his games, while having a guy/guys like Buerhle to learn from in the majors?

[TheHurl]

There is of course the option of actually trading for a pitcher mid-season. Pencil Kazmir in for 10 start after Hutch and Stro get hurt.

 

While I joke and I should be shot for wishing harm upon a Dukie...there is some value knowing where you are during the season before making any SP move

[Westfan]

I really don't like the idea of Estrada as the 5 th starter so while it doesn't seem likely I hope Norris or even Sanchez grabs that spot in ST.

 

Right now I think we need 3 pitchers. A starter and at least two relievers

[Jimcanuck]

Not saying which is the right avenue for Sanchez's development, but just a question to throw out there....

 

Would Sanchez be better off in AAA, having a AAA catcher call his game and face AAA hitters?

or

Would Sanchez be better off getting a shot at starting, and having Russell Martin call his games, while having a guy/guys like Buerhle to learn from in the majors?

 

Jiminez is good defensively. MB is going to be a great pitching coach someday, but the AAA coaches are quite good too.

 

Sanchez has about ~30 AAA innings. Norris ~20. They both need some more seasoning.

 

Rushing elite arms to the majors not recommended.

[nutz003]

Stroman had only 35 innings in AAA I think. He had over a 100 in AA though.

[Jimcanuck]

Stroman had only 35 innings in AAA I think. He had over a 100 in AA though.

 

Yes, and he was an injury callup. Exactly how it should be played.... get another starter, and Sanchez and Norris in AAA refining their craft and waiting for the opportunity that will come (going by the above numbers).

[nutz003]

I totally agree with you that getting another starter is ideal, and the way to go (if it is someone who would be in the top 3 in the rotation), but if it is another 5th starter type of guy, maybe the kid should get his shot.

[Jimcanuck]

I totally agree with you that getting another starter is ideal, and the way to go (if it is someone who would be in the top 3 in the rotation), but if it is another 5th starter type of guy, maybe the kid should get his shot.

 

Nah, you want another starter to hedge against scraping the barrel for the Ramon Ortiz of the world come July. Instead of Ortiz as injury fill-in, you've got Sanchez or Norris.

[TwistedLogic]

Stroman had only 35 innings in AAA I think. He had over a 100 in AA though.

 

Stroman was considered near-ready for the majors out of the draft. People all across the industry were predicting him to be the first player from that class to reach the majors.

[saskjayfan]

I think it's pretty crazy to have Sanchez ahead of Norris on the SP depth chart.

 

Last year:

Norris:

AAA 22 IP, 1.28 SIERA

AA 35.2 IP, 2.78 SIERA

A+ 66.1 IP, 2.66 SIERA

 

Sanchez:

AAA 34.1 IP, 3.99 SIERA

AA 66 IP, 3.93 SIERA

 

You forgot Sanchez' major league stats.

[gbill2004]

I read a scouting report on Stroman suggesting that because of his height, he won't last more than a few years as a starter. Thoughts?

[saskjayfan]

Which were out of the bullpen and largely unsustainable with the abysmal SwStr%.

 

I see...so they are completely irrelevant. Got it. Thanks for clearing that up.

[gbill2004]

Bull. Stroman has excellent mechanics that should allow him to be a workhorse.

Here's some excerpts on the reasoning from the scouting report (not the full report):

 

The only knock on Stroman has been well documented – his height. Standing at a shade under 5’9, he’s not able to naturally create a downward plane that a taller pitcher would. This makes his pitches slightly flat and easier to hit but he does a very good job staying on top of the ball by working down in the zone. His loose arm will also cause him to lose his arm slot at times.

 

It seems a bit funny to think about now, but less than a year ago many people were still tagging Stroman with the “reliever” tag, which came more from his height than ability. The track record for short starting pitchers isn’t great but Stroman should be able to hold up as a starter for at least a few years, while his stuff is still at it’s best. Once his arm inevitably starts to deteriorate it will be tough but, until that time comes, he’s a potential number two starter. Worst case scenario, he’s probably an elite reliever or back-end starting pitcher.

[nutz003]

I guess we just have to hope that Gibbons, AA, and their team of assistants, analytics guys and scouts have weighed the pros and cons of all of the options, and will hopefully do what is best for the team and Sanchez.

[TwistedLogic]

Here's some excerpts on the reasoning from the scouting report (not the full report):

 

The only knock on Stroman has been well documented – his height. Standing at a shade under 5’9, he’s not able to naturally create a downward plane that a taller pitcher would. This makes his pitches slightly flat and easier to hit but he does a very good job staying on top of the ball by working down in the zone. His loose arm will also cause him to lose his arm slot at times.

 

It seems a bit funny to think about now, but less than a year ago many people were still tagging Stroman with the “reliever” tag, which came more from his height than ability. The track record for short starting pitchers isn’t great but Stroman should be able to hold up as a starter for at least a few years, while his stuff is still at it’s best. Once his arm inevitably starts to deteriorate it will be tough but, until that time comes, he’s a potential number two starter. Worst case scenario, he’s probably an elite reliever or back-end starting pitcher.

 

http://i.gyazo.com/d3c75e52499b0db3738d0efbfaf1b403.png

[ElNik2013]

Plus there are plenty of tall pitchers that get hurt and whose stuff isn't helped by their height.

[saskjayfan]

They're not irrelevant. They are correctly weighted in projections, which have Sanchez as a replacement or below pitcher.

 

I really could care less about the projections. What were Jose Bautista's projections for 2010. The margin of error on a player of Sanchez' age going through the changes he underwent the last couple years makes projecting what he will do almost impossible. He made some mechanical changes in AAA just before coming to the MLB. AA was asked about his control problems in an interview before he got to the bigs and Alex talked about the changes he had made in AAA and that he expected his control to be fine. All the experts on here said he would be terrible in the pen prior to him actually pitching in the majors. When he came up and pitched well, people are now saying well he did that as a reliever, but he will be terrible as a starter.

 

He couldn't command his fastball in the minors either. It wasn't just his change or curve that caused him issues. He made meaningful strides later on in the season that people are completely dismissing. I am excited to see him as a starter. I know he will have different challenges as a starter and I'm not expecting him to be lights out as a starter. He could be anywhere from very good to very bad. I can't believe people are convinced he will be anywhere from below average to terrible, like there is no upside to the guy.

 

To each their own though.

[gbill2004]

http://i.gyazo.com/d3c75e52499b0db3738d0efbfaf1b403.png

Pedro is 2.5 inches taller than Stroman.

[Jimcanuck]

I really could care less about the projections. What were Jose Bautista's projections for 2010. The margin of error on a player of Sanchez' age going through the changes he underwent the last couple years makes projecting what he will do almost impossible. He made some mechanical changes in AAA just before coming to the MLB. AA was asked about his control problems in an interview before he got to the bigs and Alex talked about the changes he had made in AAA and that he expected his control to be fine. All the experts on here said he would be terrible in the pen prior to him actually pitching in the majors. When he came up and pitched well, people are now saying well he did that as a reliever, but he will be terrible as a starter.

 

He couldn't command his fastball in the minors either. It wasn't just his change or curve that caused him issues. He made meaningful strides later on in the season that people are completely dismissing. I am excited to see him as a starter. I know he will have different challenges as a starter and I'm not expecting him to be lights out as a starter. He could be anywhere from very good to very bad. I can't believe people are convinced he will be anywhere from below average to terrible, like there is no upside to the guy.

 

To each their own though.

 

Will you agree relying on Sanchez to be the 5th starter is a very risky proposition?

[TwistedLogic]

Yeah I'm not really getting the dependence on statistics and projections here for a guy like Sanchez. The FO clearly know more about the guys' mechanics, scouting and adjustments to where they feel they can determine where each of them are on the depth chart as of now. Besides, what the projected rotation is right now is completely irrelevant, because even without any new acquisitions (I don't know if I see them going into the year without any new additions), spring training almost always changes the pecking order (see: 2013, Romero). No reason to argue about it in December.

[KingKat]

I really could care less about the projections. What were Jose Bautista's projections for 2010. The margin of error on a player of Sanchez' age going through the changes he underwent the last couple years makes projecting what he will do almost impossible. He made some mechanical changes in AAA just before coming to the MLB. AA was asked about his control problems in an interview before he got to the bigs and Alex talked about the changes he had made in AAA and that he expected his control to be fine. All the experts on here said he would be terrible in the pen prior to him actually pitching in the majors. When he came up and pitched well, people are now saying well he did that as a reliever, but he will be terrible as a starter.

 

He couldn't command his fastball in the minors either. It wasn't just his change or curve that caused him issues. He made meaningful strides later on in the season that people are completely dismissing. I am excited to see him as a starter. I know he will have different challenges as a starter and I'm not expecting him to be lights out as a starter. He could be anywhere from very good to very bad. I can't believe people are convinced he will be anywhere from below average to terrible, like there is no upside to the guy.

 

To each their own though.

 

It's COULDN'T care less. I don't usually play grammar police but I'm pretty sure this has come up before.