Toronto *might* have one of the worst cores in baseball

[Laika]

Here is an interesting attempt to rank the contributions that each team received from their "core" players.

 

Each player's WARP (WAR) is multiplied by both an age indexing factor and a team control indexing factor. Young players with lots of team control see their WARP value rise - old players nearing free agency see their WARP value fall. A "core player" is arbitrarily defined as somebody with a Core Warp of 5.0 or greater.

 

The Blue Jays are found to have only one core player - Marcus Stroman. That's tied with the Padres for the fewest core players in baseball. Toronto ranks 28th in the composite Team Core Value ranking.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25034#.VGOV1TFVHhE.twitter

 

My Comments

 

1) I think this is interesting and I think it serves to highlight a lot of the concerns that fans have with the current structure of the Blue Jays roster. If you are a fan that thinks the Blue Jays need to take advantage of an apparent competitive window that could slam shut in the not too distant future, this article affirms your beliefs.

 

2) The study is purely descriptive. It is not predictive (the article mentions this explicitly). The WARP values are actual WARP values from the 2014 season. A "truer" rank of core value moving forward would use projections for future seasons. (This would likely turn Lawrie, Hutchison, and Norris into "core players").

 

3) The study has a potential bias towards teams with money. The Dodgers lead the league in Team Core Value largely because they have been able to purchase many years of control on good players like Gonzalez, Greinke, and Kemp. (But LA still deserves much credit for developing and smartly acquiring core guys like Puig, Kershaw, and Ryu). Veteran players like Cano and Ellsbury are also considered core players because of their production + how much team control they come with, but the study treats 3 years of arbitration control the exact same as 3 years of control at $25 million dollars. 6 years of a highly talented rookie should be considered a superior 'core' asset than 6 years of Jacoby Ellsbury at $21M, because the cost of your core affects the rest of your baseball team.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Interesting perspective, thanks for posting. However, I think you would agree it's just one of about 10000 ways of ranking team cores.

[Angrioter]

Interesting perspective, thanks for posting. However, I think you would agree it's just one of about 10000 ways of ranking team cores.

 

9,999 of 10,000 says we suck.

[kgm1]

This could also quickly turn around if the Jays are well out of it in July and they move non controllable high value vets for more core type players. I drool at the thought of what a Baustista, Encarnacion, Buehrle, Dickey and even Reyes could bring if healthy at the deadline. Yes salary might have to be eaten but the right deals could put the Jays in a Cubs type situation.

 

I'll add that it would be the smart thing to do if not in contention but the question is would Rogers allow it.

[Angrioter]

This could also quickly turn around if the Jays are well out of it in July and they move non controllable high value vets for more core type players. I drool at the thought of what a Baustista, Encarnacion, Buehrle, Dickey and even Reyes could bring if healthy at the deadline. Yes salary might have to be eaten but the right deals could put the Jays in a Cubs type situation.

 

I'll add that it would be the smart thing to do if not in contention but the question is would Rogers allow it.

 

Bautista for Soler+

Edwin for Gallo

Reyes+ Money for Plawecki+

Dickey for Olson

[Laika]

... I drool at the thought of what a Baustista, Encarnacion Buehrle, Dickey and even Reyes could bring if healthy at the deadline.

 

A lot

A lot

Nothing

Almost nothing

Nothing

 

It would be pretty hard for Toronto to even give Buehrle or Reyes away.

[z3r0s]

Bautista for Soler+

Edwin for Gallo

Reyes+ Money for Plawecki+

Dickey for Olson

 

go for Russell+ instead.

[wardhenke1]

74-88 and 83-79 over the last 2 years says this core stinks.

[Angrioter]

74-88 and 83-79 over the last 2 years says this core stinks.

 

Payroll

2013 - 128M

2014 - 137M

[kgm1]

A lot

A lot

Nothing

Almost nothing

Nothing

 

It would be pretty hard for Toronto to even give Buehrle or Reyes away.

 

Depends how much money you eat. we said that about Wells . Buehrle is short term , Eating some money gets a prospect . Dickey is a good fit for a big ball park team like the Angels or Dodgers. If the Jays ate 21 mil of Reyes contract do you not think at 15 mil a year Reyes is valuable?

[kgm1]

Bautista for Soler+

Edwin for Gallo

Reyes+ Money for Plawecki+

Dickey for Olson

 

Many ways you could go at the deadline . JB and EE signed cheap for a year and a half nets two top prospects each. I think people underestimate how much some teams will give up for a shot if they are right in the thick of things and need a bat or a pitcher.

Think of Dickey in a bigger ball park. lot of those HRs are caught in LA parks. Eat 21 to 24 mil of Reyes salary and at 14 or 15 mil per year he becomes an asset.

[kgm1]

I will add that we thought wells was not tradeable and he still netted a player.

[Smokey]

This could also quickly turn around if...

 

Two years ago when AA was s***ing the bed, you were applauding the moves and calling them a "perfect storm". Now somehow the same buffoon who got the team into this mess in the first place could magically turn things around QUICKLY only if rogers would let him hahaha.

[KingKat]

I will add that we thought wells was not tradeable and he still netted a player.

 

It's hardly a perfect market. The whims of individual GMs wheigh heavily.

[Smokey]

I think people underestimate how much some teams will give up for a shot if they are right in the thick of things and need a bat or a pitcher.

 

No, you're clearly overestimating what an incompetent GM will do when desperate to hold on to his job.

[Sammy225]

No, you're clearly overestimating what an incompetent GM will do when desperate to hold on to his job.

 

Amaro?????

[kgm1]

It's hardly a perfect market. The whims of individual GMs wheigh heavily.

 

Agreed every deal takes two and what the hell do i know. If I'm to believe some on this forum the jays are the shittiest organization in baseball and a monkey with a computer could do a better job than AA.

 

I will say after years of trashing JP Ricarrdi it is harder to be positive about a GM than it is to be negative . I try to look at the better things AA does rather than come on here and only post negative s*** like some

 

Few can argue AA has drafted well.

[Smokey]

Amaro?????

 

I'm sure he'd turn things around at the speed of light if only the ownership would allow him...

[jaysfan2014]

They can't even spell Tulowitzki right! And this is only for 2014.. this can change in 2015 if the Jays see the emergence of their young pitchers and Dalton Pompey. And why aren't the Rays near the bottom with the Jays and Red Sox, considering most of those "core" pieces will likely be dealt when they get expensive with no progress on a new stadium or boosting attendance. And why aren't Bautista and EE even mentioned in our "core"?

[Laika]

They can't even spell Tulowitzki right! And this is only for 2014.. this can change in 2015 if the Jays see the emergence of their young pitchers and Dalton Pompey. And why aren't the Rays near the bottom with the Jays and Red Sox, considering most of those "core" pieces will likely be dealt when they get expensive with no progress on a new stadium or boosting attendance. And why aren't Bautista and EE even mentioned in our "core"?

 

Try reading the article, maybe.

[Governator]

So in a fantasy world lets say a brand new MLB team was born and the GM came out and said I've been given a $189MM payroll with a 3-year window from the owners. So they go and sign 8 stud positional players to 3 year contracts each, also 2 aces and 3 upper arms but to stats geeks they don't qualify as having a core because they could very well not be competitive in 2019? They should be called franchise players not core players.

[burlingtonbandit]

74-88 and 83-79 over the last 2 years says this core stinks.

 

More like says management can't build a team properly.

[TheHurl]

Number of "core" players from the list traded by AA...3

[Laika]

Number of "core" players from the list traded by AA...3

 

ouch

[o2cui2i]

This could also quickly turn around if the Jays are well out of it in July and they move non controllable high value vets for more core type players. I drool at the thought of what a Baustista, Encarnacion, Buehrle, Dickey and even Reyes could bring if healthy at the deadline. Yes salary might have to be eaten but the right deals could put the Jays in a Cubs type situation.

 

I'll add that it would be the smart thing to do if not in contention but the question is would Rogers allow it.

 

does the jays front office know what "out of contention" means?

[o2cui2i]

Agreed every deal takes two and what the hell do i know. If I'm to believe some on this forum the jays are the shittiest organization in baseball and a monkey with a computer could do a better job than AA.

 

I will say after years of trashing JP Ricarrdi it is harder to be positive about a GM than it is to be negative . I try to look at the better things AA does rather than come on here and only post negative s*** like some

 

Few can argue AA has drafted well.

 

the Miami and Mets deals have soured me and AA has basically had his head up his ass since then? he really hasn't done anything since... gave away a catcher and signed one that is worse for a 2 year deal....

 

This has to be the last year for AA and Beeston. if the jays blow junks again this year there wont be much that would save their jobs. there.... a positive? lol

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

This could also quickly turn around if the Jays are well out of it in July and they move non controllable high value vets for more core type players. I drool at the thought of what a Baustista, Encarnacion, Buehrle, Dickey and even Reyes could bring if healthy at the deadline. Yes salary might have to be eaten but the right deals could put the Jays in a Cubs type situation.

 

I'll add that it would be the smart thing to do if not in contention but the question is would Rogers allow it.

AA would just panic and trade them for other overpaid, overrated veterans and marginal prospects - if he even makes a move at all, which is doubtful no matter how far out of contention we are.

[fireballW]

This team is fricken depressing. I still think it was fair to give AA some support for a while, with all the great things he did in his first year, but wtf happened to him and this team? He really did seem smart and like he knew what he was doing at first, then his whole philosophies seemed to change. Rude to say maybe but he seemed to have let himself go and lost a lot of his baseball IQ around the time he got his first kid.

 

Either way even now after trying to stay positive with this team, it is just way too depressing. Get rid of these tired old players. Trade all the veterans. The only one I'm not really tired of is EE. People think guys like Reyes, MB etc... might fetch a decent player though, but they won't. Dickey won't either. We basically have to restock our team with the fruits of trading EE and JB.

[Laika]

And on the flip side....

 

The Blue Jays might not have a large, productive, and highly controllable "core", but they do have a LOT of future payroll flexibility, which is a very good thing.

 

Just look at this image. Toronto has significantly less longterm payroll commitments than teams like Seattle, Texas, Cincinnati, New York, Atlanta, Boston, Colorado, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Philadelphia, other New York, and both Chicagos.

 

I think you'd have to agree that talent-wise, in the immediate future, the Blue Jays are as good as or better than (almost?) all of those teams. So while Toronto might not have a 5 year core, what they do have is a pretty talented short term team that carries almost no significant burden of commitment. That's f***ing good! Lots of money down the line to make commitments to free agents and/or extend the in-house talent that develops.

 

 

http://o0tp7mzzn32msux2jkg8kga0.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/images/2014/11/future-obligations1.png

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/future-payroll-obligations-by-team.html

[kgm1]

And I might add , A top ten farm system that if they dealt the high value non core talent would jump even higher.