Why did the Orioles do so much better than us this year?

[Smokey]

IN 2014. Toronto is still in better shape for 2015..

 

Even without a committed ownership?? I think not.

[closetjaysfan]

The Os sucked before Showalter. He joined the team in 2010 when they were 32-73 (worst in the Majors), under him they went 34-23. Then he ends their 12 year streak of sub .500 seasons and reaches the playoffs for the first time in 15 years... and just like this year, no one was talking positively about their lineup at the beginning of the 2012 season. He kind of f***ed it with the Yanks and Arizona but I cant deny that he has been magic for Baltimore.

[guylaroche5]

WTW.

 

Will to Win.

 

Our players don't have it. Never will.

 

Our core group is an utter and complete failure.

 

since when did hawk harrelson start frequenting our forums?

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

And speaking of incompetent GMs, you could say the same for Brian Cashman in New York(two years of no playoffs and no farm) and Ben Cherington in Boston(sorry, but there's no excuse for going from a World Series to 90 losses in one season. Someone needs to take the fall in Boston.)

 

Six combined World Series championships between them... man, I wish AA was as "incompetent" as Cashman and Cherington!

 

At what point do the homers realize that we have zero room to scoff at how any other franchise in the division is run? We're the bottom bitch of the AL East and it's going to stay that way until we start seriously winning and making the playoffs on a regular basis.

[GD]

WTW.

 

Will to Win.

 

Our players don't have it. Never will.

 

Our core group is an utter and complete failure.

 

lol ok Hawk

[bill]

The Os sucked before Showalter. He joined the team in 2010 when they were 32-73 (worst in the Majors), under him they went 34-23. Then he ends their 12 year streak of sub .500 seasons and reaches the playoffs for the first time in 15 years... and just like this year, no one was talking positively about their lineup at the beginning of the 2012 season. He kind of f***ed it with the Yanks and Arizona but I cant deny that he has been magic for Baltimore.

 

I have said all along that Showalter was a big difference, but everyone says managers make little difference.

[Dick_Pole]

And the Yanks and Red Sox are the only ones with rings.. and the O's appearances were only 1996, 1997, 2012 and 2014, although 2012 should never have happened.. that was a mediocre team that overperformed due to a strong bullpen (their pyth was 82-80) that was exposed vs. the Yankees in the ALDS that year. Not to mention the East was weak that year.

 

Two words about the Yanks appearances: Derek Jeter. That's why they have 16 appearances (5 rings)

 

Pythagorean shows that the Jays should have been 91-71 in 1992 and 1993. So in 1992 they overperformed and beat Milwaukee and in 1993 they won because they were in a weak division.

 

...or we could just say that the 1992 and 1993 Jays teams played well and deserved to be in the playoffs and win those World Series, and the 2012 O's played well and deserved to be in the playoffs too.

 

The Jeter knob-sucking was the added icing on the cake to this post.

[BlueJayWay]

IN 2014. Toronto is still in better shape for 2015.. although Boston should rebound in 2016-17. New York, is less certain. It wouldn't be surprising if Cashman(and Girardi) get the axe, possibly within the next few days or weeks.

A few weeks ago the Yankees said publically they intend to renew Cashman's contract.

[jaysfan2014]

A few weeks ago the Yankees said publically they intend to renew Cashman's contract.

 

Heard the same thing.. but that is up to Hank and Hal. I can imagine they're fuming that the team missed the playoffs again, and may do something big like their father, such as firing the GM and coach.

[BTS]

The Os sucked before Showalter. He joined the team in 2010 when they were 32-73 (worst in the Majors), under him they went 34-23. Then he ends their 12 year streak of sub .500 seasons and reaches the playoffs for the first time in 15 years... and just like this year, no one was talking positively about their lineup at the beginning of the 2012 season. He kind of f***ed it with the Yanks and Arizona but I cant deny that he has been magic for Baltimore.

 

Buck Showalter's career winnings percentage is .518.

[G-Snarls]

Heard the same thing.. but that is up to Hank and Hal. I can imagine they're fuming that the team missed the playoffs again, and may do something big like their father, such as firing the GM and coach.

 

Weakened the farm further, spent a bunch of money and still missed the playoffs

 

Looking back at it, the Yankees were so decimated by pitching injuries they probably should have just conceded that the playoffs weren't going to happen this year. (Like Tampa did, probably smartly, after waiting just long enough to know the chances were slim) But they just don't operate like that. Ownership might have been equally upset if Cashman had done nothing and they finished 2-3 games worse. He was in a difficult situation.

[G-Snarls]

Buck Showalter's career winnings percentage is .518.

 

Despite having managed the Yankees for a period of time

 

Player talent >>>>>>>>>>>>> manager

[RealAccountant]

Jaysfan2014 are you AA or related to AA.

[bill]

Buck Showalter's career winnings percentage is .518.

 

He's won manager of the year twice and was in the top five for manager of the year votes for a number of more years.

[BTS]

He's won manager of the year twice and was in the top five for manager of the year votes for a number of more years.

 

So?

[jaysfan2014]

Stop talking. Especially about payroll. You are, again, confusing AAV and cash payroll. Just stop. You won't understand if I explain it to you (as I already attempted once and you're still screwing it up).

 

 

 

There's no closing "window to compete." False premise. They don't have to increase their payroll substantially to improve on this year's team, or match it.

 

 

 

There's no "formula" relative to actual budgeting in MLB. It's just a general long-term trend that isn't situation dependent. You even spoke to it yourself ... if they basically broke even last year, and were concerned about profitability, why would they increase payroll the following year?

 

You're running out of misdirects and false information. Stop.

 

It's 50% because there are OTHER costs involved, including operation of the club, rent payments, revenue sharing, paying employees, scouts, etc., and $11M in health and medical benefits(which IS included in the luxury tax calculation). That's why it's close to $115-$120M, which the O's cannot sustain without a huge boost in attendance, more favorable terms with MASN and/or a deep World Series run. And the numbers for payroll came from Cot's.

 

And while the team can't close the window of contention, other bigger markets teams like the Yankees can by stealing their free agents for more money than the O's can afford.

 

Oh, and here's some food for thought for you:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2014-payroll-salaries.shtml

 

Including estimated arb raises (which will likely be MUCH higher than the measurements Baseball-Reference has at $74.5M, which won't be even close), Baltimore will likely be over $90M-100M, with little room to resign their free agents.

[jaysfan2014]

First, regarding the "lower ERA" comment ... I spoke to this earlier, in reply to your earlier incorrect statements. If you don't want to learn, we can't teach you. Here, in a thread where we are separating out defense from pitching, and looking at defense as a primary driver of the distance between the Orioles and Jays, I'm not looking at ERA. The Orioles could have a higher ERA next year, with the pitchers still performing better than they did this year. Apparently, the drugs I'm taking aren't as strong as yours. You need to switch to mine to come down.

 

Second, Matusz didn't outperform 2013. This was Britton's first year as a reliever so there's nothing to outperform. Hunter was just as good in 2013. O'Day was of similar quality in 2013. Brach wasn't much different than years past. Webb didn't really improve. McFarland is really the only one, and he's just 25.

 

Third, again, we're talking SP, not defense. How will the defense change? I don't know, at this point. Of the positional players they lose, Markakis, Cruz and DYoung were all negative defensive contributors this year ... only Hardy was a plus defensive performer. They could retain Hardy, or they could find another defensive SS option. With a full year of Machado and Wieters, and only moderately decent defensive replacements for the potentially departed, they could actually have a better defense than this year. And if they go full on defensively-focused, they could easily improve there.

 

But among the grouping of Gausman, Tillman, Chen, Gonzalez, Norris, Jimenez and Bundy ... I expect a better collective year than 2014.

 

Losing JJ Hardy to the Yankees(or another large market club) will almost certainly cause the O's pitching to significantly regress. There's nobody close to JJ Hardy at SS defensively based on UZR, Def, etc. And that D alone, along with a somewhat decent bat, is going to get him scooped up by the Yankees.

[GD]

If I could taser you through the computer, I would.

 

lmao

[G-Snarls]

lmao

 

M b M

[RealAccountant]

So?

 

It means that at least twice he was considered to be the Top manager in the American League

 

In fact in his resume he has had several seasons of 90+ wins. In 7 season now, Gibby has yet to break the 90 win barrier

 

Anyone wonder why Gibby was sitting at home since 2008 just waiting for the Jays to call

[Dick_Pole]

Poor Roy Hartsfield, RIP. That piece of crap manager led the Jays to three straight 100+ loss seasons. He must have been the worst manager ever, deserving of his body being exhumed just so the members of this board can tar and feather the remaining skeleton. I mean if Gibbons is that bad, this guy must have been 10x worse leading a team to nearly 500 games of twice as many losses as wins...like, seriously, who does that? Twice as many losses as wins. Disgraceful.

[Boxcar]

If I could taser you through the computer, I would.

 

Like I told saskjaysfan, we are talking about pitching, separating out defense. So saying their defense will get worse (and that's completely debatable, and absolutely not a certainty), is irrelevant.

 

Holy s***.

 

I think we've discovered Moogy's kryptonite.

[Boxcar]

Should have known this thread was going to be used as a platform by multiple idiots to trash Gibbons and fellate Showalter.

[jaysfan2014]

Should have known this thread was going to be used as a platform by multiple idiots to trash Gibbons and fellate Showalter.

 

Pretty much. But how's Showalter going to manage when the O's roster is partially torn down next year due to financial constraints? Unless the O's want to raise their payroll to $140-150M or so, they're not going to be able to keep this core together.

[jaysfan2014]

I think we've discovered Moogy's kryptonite.

 

Yes. If you look at advanced metrics, the O's rotation has serious regression coming when their defense regresses because of the losses of Markakis and Hardy.

[jays4life19]

Yes. If you look at advanced metrics, the O's rotation has serious regression coming when their defense regresses because of the losses of Markakis and Hardy.

 

Markakis is not a good overall defender.

[KingKat]

 

Anyone wonder why Gibby was sitting at home since 2008 just waiting for the Jays to call

 

He was the bench coach for the Royals from 2008-2011 and then he managed a San Diego affiliate in 2012. The Jays aren't the only people in baseball who value John Gibbons. He's had not problem finding employment in the past and he, no doubt, will have no problem finding it in the future.

[RealAccountant]

Yes. If you look at advanced metrics, the O's rotation has serious regression coming when their defense regresses because of the losses of Markakis and Hardy.

 

Os start playoffs tommorrow, Normally I want them to do terribly, however just to spite you. They are my playoffs team

 

Go Os

 

Maybe if they get in to the world series you will stop talking negatively about them.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Serious question. Almost everyone has understimated them for the past 2 years. And I never saw them (or anyone actualy) running away with the AL East division title this year, but they did.

 

So what was it?

 

Luck? I'm done blaming luck for the Orioles' success. I think it's evened out somewhat.

 

Health? No, they had as many serious injuries as we did. Wieters, Machado and more missed tons of time.

 

Starting pitching? Nope. Baltimore's rotation was mediocre, as expected. Ours was significantly better. We were better by FIP, xFIP, they were better by ERA.

 

Lineup? Nope. wRC+ identical. We scored more runs. Yes their lineup is very good, but ours is as good or slightly better despite some serious slumps this year

 

The manager? Meh. Some will say Schowalter has something that Gibby doesn't. Don't think I agree.

 

Bench/depth - probably, Pearce alone helped save them down the stretch

 

I think it mostly comes down to :

 

Defense - I think this is the main thing. Orioles seem to be much better defensive team. It can take a while to notice this but it sure pays dividends over 162 games. Jones and Markaikis steal hits on a regular basis. Rasmus, Bautista and Melky do not. Even with Machado barely playing, they just have very few poor defensive players, if any. We have several.

 

Bullpen - Ours was so good last year but crashed down to earth in 2014. Until Morrow and Sanchez stabilized it, it was a major weak spot and cost us many games.

 

This is why the Orioles have been winning:

 

http://www.totalprosports.com/2012/10/12/baltimore-orioles-superstitious-bench-hats-alds-yankees-video/

[GeorgiaPeach]

Os start playoffs tommorrow, Normally I want them to do terribly, however just to spite you. They are my playoffs team

 

Go Os

 

Maybe if they get in to the world series you will stop talking negatively about them.

 

I thought the ALCS started Thursday?