Offseason roster thread 2014

[RealAccountant]

Interesting convo on pts

 

Consensus that you have to deal either Dickey or Burly. I hope we can keep both and instead have depth at sp

[burlingtonbandit]

anyone else notice d'Arnaud's recent improvement..... now at 1.2 WAR in 94 games and showing some power - 12 HR

 

for $0.5M

 

Well Dickey has given us a bit of value as well so its not like the trade is really one sided.

[Jimcanuck]

Well Dickey has given us a bit of value as well so its not like the trade is really one sided.

 

Uhhh the first two years of Dickey he has provided negative value (he's being paid more than the value he is giving the team)

 

This year, d'Arnaud has provided over $5M of surplus value (worth more than he is being paid)

 

And we haven't even gotten to Syndergaard

 

That trade has a chance to be one of the most lopsided in history

[kgm1]

Kratz could've f***ing caught Dickey, and others.

 

To be fair to Thole, he's done well for a guy who plays every 5 days or more, can't ask for much better, this is on management.

 

I can't dump on Thole , he has done all we could ask . I often wonder how he is defensively with a regular pitcher.

 

As the Bandit says you add wins where you can and 2nd base , Left field and the bull pen have huge holes going into next year. Melky would be a hole that isn't replaceable. The free agent market just hasn't OF bats so expect Melky to get paid.

 

With around 110 mil committed by exercising Lind and thole,s options and letting the rest walk it is going to be tight even with the 145 mil to fill all those holes. If the budget is chopped it will be impossible.

[kgm1]

There are obvious holes and catching is NOT the top priority.

 

Vik NO one has bitched more about Navarro,s defense more than me but it is a moot point . We aren't getting away from that 5 mil so I'm moving on. Anyone thinking Martin is coming is just having wet dreams . There is a zero % chance we get Martin.

 

Left Field without Melky will be a disaster. 2nd base is a disaster. The Bull pen from the right side is a disaster. Bad as his defense is and it is UGLY Navy is not something that will change much as I would hope it would.

[kgm1]

Josh Thole sucks. The guy has been a blackhole offensively.

 

I'm getting tired of his new"Ichiro Suzuki" type hitting approach. I wish we had Kratz catching Dickey from day one.

 

He plays once every 5 or 6 days , I too wish we had kept Kratz but for as often as Thole played he hasn't been that bad .

[burlingtonbandit]

Uhhh the first two years of Dickey he has provided negative value (he's being paid more than the value he is giving the team)

 

This year, d'Arnaud has provided over $5M of surplus value (worth more than he is being paid)

 

And we haven't even gotten to Syndergaard

 

That trade has a chance to be one of the most lopsided in history

 

Thats not taking the knuckleball effect into account which has a real value. Obviously the trade hasn't worked out the way everyone wanted it to but Dickey has still been a mid rotation starter. There is a value to the immediate value Dickey provides since the Blue Jays are trying to contend while the Mets are not.

 

Side note if the Jays decline Thole's option will they save any money if they brought him back anyways? Can't see another team offering him a contract so he might just have to come back to the Jays at league min. if he wants a MLB salary..

[GD]

Yes I did mean that.. Also its at 3.4;)

 

f*** off fangraphs and your non-updating ********

 

dayum burly

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1667336

 

Navarro worth anywhere from -13 to -15 runs with framing. Or -1.5 Wins for a total of 0.4 WAR.

Free agent Russell Martin has been worth 6.8 WAR. IN 93 GAMES.

 

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Stabilizes in under 10 games caught. Actually around 6. I have tested and can confirm as well.

 

But nahh, let's not pay more than $13M for him.

 

f*** I'd give this guy so much money.

[G-Snarls]

Uhhh the first two years of Dickey he has provided negative value (he's being paid more than the value he is giving the team)

 

How do you figure??

 

5M last year and 12M this year. He's been worth that and more.

[G-Snarls]

Uhhh the first two years of Dickey he has provided negative value (he's being paid more than the value he is giving the team)

 

How do you figure??

 

5M last year and 12M this year. He's been worth that and more.

[burlingtonbandit]

f*** off fangraphs and your non-updating ********

 

dayum burly

 

 

 

But nahh, let's not pay more than $13M for him.

 

f*** I'd give this guy so much money.

 

A lot of that value is in his defence though where you can get a very good defenive catcher for cheap. While Martin is having an outstanding year I don't think anyone project him to be this good for the next few years..

[GD]

A lot of that value is in his defence though where you can get a very good defenive catcher for cheap. While Martin is having an outstanding year I don't think anyone project him to be this good for the next few years..

 

I don't think he needs to be to be worth it.

 

Also, Buehrle's provided 2 runs from defense and limits the running game IIRC? so he could be pretty valuable I'm starting to realize. Huh.

[G-Snarls]

We have a fairly high payroll - sufficiently high to compete, most definitely. Everyone is worth bajillions (approximately) more than they're being paid. Yet, we're an also ran. Discuss.

 

Yeah um sure but. What??

[ElNik2013]

Why spend so much money on Martin when all Navarro needs to do is "get in shape" and he'd be fine? I mean, what type of tool thinks that all that's preventing Navarro from being a good defensive catcher is his being in too round a shape?

 

Anyway...

[G-Snarls]

I don't think he needs to be to be worth it.

 

Also, Buehrle's provided 2 runs from defense and limits the running game IIRC? so he could be pretty valuable I'm starting to realize. Huh.

 

Well that's it. Is Buerhle a legit 1/2 caliber starter? No. But he hardly ever really blows up, literally has never gotten hurt his entire career, defends his position well and is phenomenal at controlling the running game. That's a valuable commodity. How much is that worth? Entirely up for debate. But I want another year of the above before we hand it all over to the kids.

[Jimcanuck]

How do you figure??

 

5M last year and 12M this year. He's been worth that and more.

 

Ah my mistake. I thought his 2013 salary was same as this year at $12M. Fangraphs has his value at $10M last year and this year so he's providing $3M of value so far, but expect that to come down. d'Arnaud has already provided more.

[Jimcanuck]

Thats not taking the knuckleball effect into account which has a real value. Obviously the trade hasn't worked out the way everyone wanted it to but Dickey has still been a mid rotation starter. There is a value to the immediate value Dickey provides since the Blue Jays are trying to contend while the Mets are not.

 

Side note if the Jays decline Thole's option will they save any money if they brought him back anyways? Can't see another team offering him a contract so he might just have to come back to the Jays at league min. if he wants a MLB salary..

 

Problem with this is Jays would be a better team with d'Arnaud at $0.5M, using the $11.5M not spent on Dickey somewhere else.

 

And we haven't even considered Syndergaard who >>>>>>> Dickey effect.

 

The trade cannot be defended, it was complete idiocy.

[BTS]

Well that's it. Is Buerhle a legit 1/2 caliber starter? No. But he hardly ever really blows up, literally has never gotten hurt his entire career, defends his position well and is phenomenal at controlling the running game. That's a valuable commodity. How much is that worth? Entirely up for debate. But I want another year of the above before we hand it all over to the kids.

 

Yeah. You trade Mark Buehrle for salary relief, and you're likely going to do one of two things: overpay for a replacement, or really miss him in the rotation.

[BTS]

Catching and 2B are the two spots we have replacement or slightly above replacement players. There is a top 10 player that is undervalued by the market in free agency at one of those two positions.

 

Do you think they have the guys in house to cover CF and LF at better than replacement-level? IMO you can maybe get away with Gose/some guy in one of those spots.

[GD]

Do you think they have the guys in house to cover CF and LF at better than replacement-level? IMO you can maybe get away with Gose/some guy in one of those spots.

 

I wonder how a Gose/Pompey platoon would work.

[G-Snarls]

Ah my mistake. I thought his 2013 salary was same as this year at $12M. Fangraphs has his value at $10M last year and this year so he's providing $3M of value so far, but expect that to come down. d'Arnaud has already provided more.

 

The fact that Dickey was only making 5M last year was part ifbthw reason AA targeted him. And even THEN they wanted John Buck taken by the Mets for salary relief. AA has been pinching pennies hard ever since the Marlins trade.

[Jimcanuck]

I wonder how a Gose/Pompey platoon would work.

 

A prospect like Pompey needs to play every day.....

[GD]

Pompey cant hit lefties either.

 

Pompey posted an average mark of .311/.378/.440 against LHPs over A+, AA and AAA.

 

A prospect like Pompey needs to play every day.....

 

Wouldn't hurt to introduce him slowly.

[jays4life19]

Catching and 2B are the two spots we have replacement or slightly above replacement players. There is a top 10 player that is undervalued by the market in free agency at one of those two positions.

 

Sign Russell Martin. Just f***ing do it Bluejays. Not that i care that he's Canadian but he might not cost an extra (because he knows we don't live in igloos) premium to come to Canada.

 

Massive upgrade. f***ing massive.

[Chappy]

Vik NO one has bitched more about Navarro,s defense more than me but it is a moot point . We aren't getting away from that 5 mil so I'm moving on. Anyone thinking Martin is coming is just having wet dreams . There is a zero % chance we get Martin.

 

Left Field without Melky will be a disaster. 2nd base is a disaster. The Bull pen from the right side is a disaster. Bad as his defense is and it is UGLY Navy is not something that will change much as I would hope it would.

 

Melky has to be a priority along with 2B. The pen also needs to be addressed, but not at the expense of Melky or 2B. Retaining Melky, slotting Gose and a platoon partner into CF, the addition of Mayberry to platoon with Lind and a legitimate 2B, this team will be fairly solid. The rotation has depth with Sanchez, Norris, and Nolin waiting for spots and the pen has holes, but nothing that can't be fixed.

[Chappy]

Catching and 2B are the two spots we have replacement or slightly above replacement players. There is a top 10 player that is undervalued by the market in free agency at one of those two positions.

 

It's nice to think we could just go out and get Martin, but there is zero chance that happens.

[Chappy]

Yeah. You trade Mark Buehrle for salary relief, and you're likely going to do one of two things: overpay for a replacement, or really miss him in the rotation.

 

Trading Buehrle for salary relief is a terrible idea unless someone takes the entire contract. AA would have to eat salary, and even if he takes on $5M of his contract, are we really going to replace Buehrle for $14M and if we do then was it even worth it? I'd rather let Buehrle pitch out the final year and if we are in it, then keep him and let the contract run out, if we are out of it then flip him at the deadline. 1/19 looks a lot better than signing someone for 4/60+.

[BTS]

Trading Buehrle for salary relief is a terrible idea unless someone takes the entire contract. AA would have to eat salary, and even if he takes on $5M of his contract, are we really going to replace Buehrle for $14M and if we do then was it even worth it? I'd rather let Buehrle pitch out the final year and if we are in it, then keep him and let the contract run out, if we are out of it then flip him at the deadline. 1/19 looks a lot better than signing someone for 4/60+.

 

Even if someone takes the entire contract. ~2.5 WAR for $19 million isn't the worst thing, especially when the rotation would be Dickey, Hutchison, and three questions. It's far from a given that the FO could put that money to better use. The more I think about it, I'm very much in the "keep him" camp.

[Chappy]

Even if someone takes the entire contract. ~2.5 WAR for $19 million isn't the worst thing, especially when the rotation would be Dickey, Hutchison, and three questions. It's far from a given that the FO could put that money to better use. The more I think about it, I'm very much in the "keep him" camp.

 

I have been on the keep him camp since we got him. Now that there is only one more year left and he and Dickey can easily eat 400 innings with a high probability, AA would be silly to move either. Both can be FA's by the end of next season (Dickey has an option), and with Norris, Sanchez, and Nolin vying for spots, they provide an ideal bridge. Not to mention the fact that both can easily be flipped at the deadline should the Jays be out of it.

[burlingtonbandit]

Even if someone takes the entire contract. ~2.5 WAR for $19 million isn't the worst thing, especially when the rotation would be Dickey, Hutchison, and three questions. It's far from a given that the FO could put that money to better use. The more I think about it, I'm very much in the "keep him" camp.

 

Do you think Buehrle declines a fair amount next year? His performance is going to take a pretty big hit one of these years.