Beeston: Jays payroll will go up in 2015

[Frenchsoup]

Prado has underperformed. Headly has injury issues. He had a .651 OPS in San Diego. This is hardly a difference maker for a guy who would sit on the bench a couple of weeks for Lawrie to replace him. Valencia makes more sense for a replacement player given he was hitting better than Headley and in the AL. It was a far smarter baseball move at the time. Prado has been awful. Headly is the best of the three but it's not like he is a stud 3-4 hitter who can put a team over the top. He wasn't going to replace a healthy Bret Lawrie.

 

Anyone who thinks Prado or Headley would turn this team into a WS winner is a tool.

 

Prado is on pace for a 2 war year Headley a 3 war year Valencia is on pace for replacement level.

 

Also gave up kratz who is valuable, and headley would have cost Juan Fran plus a b prospect.

[guylaroche5]

there's no one more in the jays organization i wanna punch more in the face than beeston

[Olerud363]

Lol I cannot figure that trade out. At all.

 

That trade explains everything up to this day. Cito didn't like Olerud. He thought he was a platoon player. The only reason he got 550 at bats in 1993 was that he was hitting .400 until August.

 

By 1996 he occasionally had to sit against righties for Jacob Brumfield and didn't get 400 at bats. Wait a minute I must be lying here?? OK it's not like he sat for Brumfield 40 times, maybe 3 or 4. And he did get 398 at bats (almost 400!).

 

But Cito hated Olerud because he got on base and didn't pull the ball. Beeston loved Cito.

 

It just shows the character of the people involved. Olerud was a class act and they bullied him and brought his value to 0... they did it because they are arrogant and didn't care about the team, just about their own egos (listen to me, pull the f***ing ball and don't clog the f***ing bases!!)

[jaysfan2014]

He has to because free agents will not sign here. The turf is too hard the dirt is too soft - a bunch of panzy ass athletes. Then there are the chickenshits who didn't want to play in a tough division and get rocked. Or they worry about the tax rate. We can get the PED guy who no one wanted or other scrubs desperate for a job. So he has to trade to get anyone.

 

Everyone whines about all the prospects (soon to be scrubs) we gave up but now also complains that we're not making trades to land overthetop players. Take Buerhle, Reyes, Dickey, Melky, Navarro out of the roster and replace them with all the guys we traded and this would be a dead last place team. Even with the complaining about Reyes he is better than the other two guys who would be manning the position had we kept them.

 

As for giving up too much - that will depend on what they do. Miami just traded some of the so called stud talent we gave them. So they were not exactly impressed either. Trading Alvarez was the one guy I didn't like moving at the time - I sort of understood it thinking he'd be a reliever but I would have tried moving other pieces.

 

Hech and Escobar haven't exactly lit it up for their teams. In fact, Escobar is in serious decline in Tampa. And we saw Marisinick get traded to Houston, because they have enough OF in their system.

 

We had to make these trades.. the fanbase was whining back in 2012 because of our terrible pitching. And Alvarez wouldn't be as good in the AL.

[G-Snarls]

there's no one more in the jays organization i wanna punch more in the face than beeston

 

http://rmcnab24.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/cito.jpg

[Olerud363]

there's no one more in the jays organization i wanna punch more in the face than beeston

 

This thread is getting my Beeston hate going again. There is no one I despise more (that I don't know).

 

A lot of suits hate numbers... they get high up in an organization by defining their own reality. To Beeston reality is track teams, and rbis, and Cito Gaston, and pulling the ball, and character, and vets. He ignores numbers... hates them. Hates the greasy little monkeys that play with numbers. If you like numbers Beeston want to fire you... the guy is insane. AA is probably scared of him.

 

Keep in mind Beeston is on a few boards... likes the loblaws board. So if you work for loblaws DON'T use numbers... if you have some data showing the decadent will outsell the new cookie do not use these numbers.. just mentione the decadent is a veteran cookie.

[jaysfan2014]

Prado has underperformed. Headly has injury issues. He had a .651 OPS in San Diego. This is hardly a difference maker for a guy who would sit on the bench a couple of weeks for Lawrie to replace him. Valencia makes more sense for a replacement player given he was hitting better than Headley and in the AL. It was a far smarter baseball move at the time. Prado has been awful. Headly is the best of the three but it's not like he is a stud 3-4 hitter who can put a team over the top. He wasn't going to replace a healthy Bret Lawrie.

 

Anyone who thinks Prado or Headley would turn this team into a WS winner is a tool.

 

Since the trade, Headley's hitting .267/.333/.417. Prado, on the other hand, is struggling, hitting .217/.280/.391.

[Olerud363]

Regarding Olerud, it was everyone's favorite manager Gaston that allegedly forced his hand there. It was a terrible trade and he should have gotten a lot more than Person, but he probably doesn't trade Olerud in a normal circumstance where he isn't such a pushover.

 

That f***ing Olerud wasn't pulling the ball, was f***ing disobedient, was taking walks and clogging the godamn bases. f***ing Joe Carter needed a spot to play.

 

If Olerud stayed with the team and played every day in 98 and 99 and Delgado DH'd I beleive that would of given the Jays a playoff spot in 98 and 99. In 98 Canseco provided 1.5 WAR as DH (even with 46 homers!)... Olerud was at 7 WAR or so. In 99 they didn't have a real dh.

[Key22]

Prado is on pace for a 2 war year Headley a 3 war year Valencia is on pace for replacement level.

 

Also gave up kratz who is valuable, and headley would have cost Juan Fran plus a b prospect.

 

Fact the Jays needed a guy who could hit - Valencia was doing that better than the other two guys versus lefty pitching. At a cost of $500k per year. At a cost of two players who could not make the Blue Jays MLB ball team. Giving up AAA (or AAAA) ballplayers like Kratz and Hendriks is hardly mortgaging the future.

 

Headley had back problems and his WAR was coming from defense - I'm not exactly sure how a .229 BA and .296OBP and pathetic crappy .651OPS can generate positive WAR because OPS IS the hitting stat that actually tells you whether the guy is worthing putting into your line-up. The fact that WAR may be comparative to other lousy third basemen who should not be playing pro ball is beside the point. A .651 OPS from a third basemen is dreadful even if he is the Ozzie Smith of third base defense.

 

Lawrie is our third baseman and he would man the position so all defensive war from the player can be ignored. The Jays needed a bat. Francisco has a .797 OPS and 16 bombs - on a team that needs offense why would you trade him for worse offensive players? If you think Francisco is a bad hitter you are not going to love Prado or Headley.

 

Bottom line is all of this is irrelevant because Headley was NOT going to put us into playoff contention. His salary and Prados would just be pissing money down the drain for marginal at best better players than Valencia and Valencia at the time of the deal was hitting considerably better than BOTH of those guys! He costs less in money and we gave up AAA fodder for him. The Valencia trade was a good one. The Reimold pick up was a good one.

[JaysFan4Ever]

They have money coming off the books, guys who they could send packing with declining their options, guys who they can just release for having little to no purpose (Mastro) and some coming on via arbitration. If they play it right and balance a few things it won't be too horrible. They need to learn from their mistakes. They need to see what we have now, and build some depth since they know guys like Lawrie will be on the DL at some point. We still have some nice young players, made some decent pick ups under the radar ie Reimold, Valencia so they can focus on a few areas.

[GeorgiaPeach]

He has to because free agents will not sign here. The turf is too hard the dirt is too soft - a bunch of panzy ass athletes. Then there are the chickenshits who didn't want to play in a tough division and get rocked. Or they worry about the tax rate. We can get the PED guy who no one wanted or other scrubs desperate for a job. So he has to trade to get anyone.

 

If the Jays offered an extra year and more money like they did for Burnett & Ryan, free agents would turn a blind eye to their concerns of playing here and would sign here. And adding a few mil a year on instead of emptying the farm is far more desirable.

[GeorgiaPeach]

That f***ing Olerud wasn't pulling the ball, was f***ing disobedient, was taking walks and clogging the godamn bases. f***ing Joe Carter needed a spot to play.

 

If Olerud stayed with the team and played every day in 98 and 99 and Delgado DH'd I beleive that would of given the Jays a playoff spot in 98 and 99. In 98 Canseco provided 1.5 WAR as DH (even with 46 homers!)... Olerud was at 7 WAR or so. In 99 they didn't have a real dh.

 

Oddly enough Cito never had an issue with guys like McGriff or Delgado going the other way.

[ElNik2013]

I swear, people who blame Rogers are the worst. We have a top 10 payroll and f***ing morons like this who want to build a track team are f***ing that up.

 

Who hired the moron who wants to build a track team?

[Key22]

If the Jays offered an extra year and more money like they did for Burnett & Ryan, free agents would turn a blind eye to their concerns of playing here and would sign here. And adding a few mil a year on instead of emptying the farm is far more desirable.

 

That's possible but until anyone shows some actual evidence that extra money and another year would work on every player the Jays tried to get we won't know. Burnett and Ryan aren't affected by the turf. The Jays can't overpay everyone in years and dollars or we end up with guys like Fielder. Remember all the fans raging and angry that the Jays didn't give Fielder a 10 year $200 million deal?

 

I look at the NET costs. The Jays gave up what 12 prospects for Dickey, Buerhle, Reyes, Happ. Out of those prospects maybe 3 turn out to be good MLB players. None of whom are likely to be as good as the four guys we got. So in terms of MLB service we got the best actual players.

 

Further maybe the Jays trade MB, Reyes, and Dickey and land a bunch of prospects and get 3MLB players back.

 

SO the NET trading gives us 4 good MLB players and 3 MLB players and a lot of cash for 3 MLB players and 9 scrubs.

 

An example would be say a Detroit who wants Bautista. They trade 3 of their top prospects (all in the top 200 let's say) for Jose. But here's the thing Jose is worth 3 top 200 prospects. He plays for Detroit for a year or two and then Detroit decides to trade him to San Francisco and what do you know they get 3 top 200 prospects for him.

 

The prospects are somewhat meaningless because you can get them back later by simply moving the player or maybe you move someone else to retain Bautista. The prospects end up coming back to fill the organization.

[Dick_Pole]

If Olerud stayed with the team and played every day in 98 and 99 and Delgado DH'd I beleive that would of given the Jays a playoff spot in 98 and 99. In 98 Canseco provided 1.5 WAR as DH (even with 46 homers!)... Olerud was at 7 WAR or so. In 99 they didn't have a real dh.

 

I had no issue with trading Olerud. Never a bad idea to trade from the strength, and the Jays were on a tail end of a 20 year run of always producing all-star 1B thus making the free agent-to-be 1B redundant and the fan base was very well versed in this idea. So trading Olerud made a lot of sense from a team strength perspective and PR perspective. What was irritating was how little they got in return for him and that those idiots actually paid a good chunk of his salary on top of that. Trade Olerud for a real second basemen, put Fernandez at third and Sprague on the bench and you have one of the best lineups around

[GeorgiaPeach]

I'm not gonna argue prospects vs expensive vets value with you. Expensive vets mean very little to me. They're for the most part a declining asset getting paid for what they did and not what they're going to do.

 

And when the Jays appear to be working with their payroll backs to the wall, you need efficiencies, you need buffers, otherwise the organization is a loser going forward.

[ElNik2013]

The owners knew the ramifications of taking on Reyes and Buehrle's contracts. They also knew that if they struck out in improving the team for the 2013 season, they'd be expected to lose over 90 games going into 2013 and they may have lost 100 given the injuries to Bautista, EE, Rasmus and Lawrie. We know what they chose to do so for me, the blame starts at the top.

 

If ownership was so concerned about how efficiently or inefficiently this team was put together, they either wouldn't have approved the trades they approved or they would've already fired those who made the trades. The fact is that, to this point, all signs point to this team being run as a content provider for the sports channels the team's owner (redundantly) owns so I don't much worry about the GM.

 

Anyway...let the whining continue...

[Key22]

I'm not gonna argue prospects vs expensive vets value with you. Expensive vets mean very little to me. They're for the most part a declining asset getting paid for what they did and not what they're going to do.

 

And when the Jays appear to be working with their payroll backs to the wall, you need efficiencies, you need buffers, otherwise the organization is a loser going forward.

 

I get it but chances are you know what an MB is going to do based on an MLB track record. You don't know for sure what a Syndergard is going to do. In many of these prospects you don't know if they will even make it or last 2 years. Many a top flight first round selection everyone was high on turns out to be a bum.

 

Had the Jays kept all of their prospects and not had Dickey, MB, Reyes, Happ they'd be last place. All of the prospects they traded assume we kept. It's not like with that group we would be a WS contender in 5 years because none of the guys we traded are studs (at least no sure fire studs). I think Toronto has to be managed differently than other clubs because so many players have us on the no trade list.

 

The problem with all the prospect talk is all the talk is that so few turn out to be anything. You might draft 3 guys who wind up being solid players in an entire draft. How can you build a WS winner with just a few excellent players?

 

I agree that the balance is poor with too many expensive vets but to be fair most of the expensive vets the Jays have are actually performing reasonably well.

 

I think the Jays are smart not to trade any of their youth. If they finish second and show a good finish and are close to the playoffs then we become attractive to free agents. We can drop guys like Morrow, Lind, Rasmus, Melky and use the money to get some free agents without trading youngsters. The team has some long term and short term potential here - if handled properly the Jays could be very good next year. Considering everyone was thinking we'd finish dead last - the results to me have been positive.

[Hawkins]

Take Buerhle, Reyes, Dickey, Melky, Navarro out of the roster and replace them with all the guys we traded and this would be a dead last place team. Even with the complaining about Reyes he is better than the other two guys who would be manning the position had we kept them.

 

We might be a dead last team but we would have a payroll of about $60million. AA didn't trade for Melky or Navarro so he could have traded Colby last year and Melky this year adding more young controllable talent for the long run AA promised before the Miami trade. Synagaard. Sanchez. Hutinson and Stroman in the rotation costing 2 million total wold be a great start. If Buerhle isn't moved the team will continue to have no flexibility and will be the .500 franchise it has been for the last 20 years. I'm sure most would agre that spending more now to win or blow it up and start over. I can't stand to watch another 20 years of .500 ball.

[ElNik2013]

We might be a dead last team but we would have a payroll of about $60million. AA didn't trade for Melky or Navarro so he could have traded Colby last year and Melky this year adding more young controllable talent for the long run AA promised before the Miami trade. Synagaard. Sanchez. Hutinson and Stroman in the rotation costing 2 million total wold be a great start. If Buerhle isn't moved the team will continue to have no flexibility and will be the .500 franchise it has been for the last 20 years. I'm sure most would agre that spending more now to win or blow it up and start over. I can't stand to watch another 20 years of .500 ball.

 

 

You're right that by keeping the prospects, the franchise would've been way better off long term. However, the franchise would also have had to accept going into 2013 expected to lose at least 90 games and given the injuries that year to Bautista, Lawrie, Morrow, EE and Rasmus, the team would've likely lost over 100 games. I don't think the franchise was ready to accept that as it would've meant not only lower attendance, but more importantly, lower tv ratings which I believe is the main reason why Rogers bought the franchise.

 

Not saying I agree with the short-sighted vision, I'm just saying this is how this franchise operates. If you go into an off season with the mindset that you will improve the team no matter what, you're putting yourself in danger of being had in trades or FA negotiations.

[Hawkins]

The prospects are somewhat meaningless because you can get them back later by simply moving the player or maybe you move someone else to retain Bautista. The prospects end up coming back to fill the organization.

 

The two flaws in you arguement is that trading for high priced players means you pay top $ and still lose prospects. Free agency is the better way to go. Secondly when was the last time the Blue Jays used the Tampa model and traded a Bautista type players when he had value? Remember Colby last season? He should have brought a great return, now he will walk away. AA and Rogers are more worried about perception then winning.

[ElNik2013]

Also, if Beeston is being truthful in saying that no moves have been made because the FO hasn't found a move it liked and not because of $$, then he must be ready to fire his FO since it has repeatedly stated since last off season what their priorities were yet have failed to address them.

[ElNik2013]

The two flaws in you arguement is that trading for high priced players means you pay top $ and still lose prospects. Free agency is the better way to go. Secondly when was the last time the Blue Jays used the Tampa model and traded a Bautista type players when he had value? Remember Colby last season? He should have brought a great return, now he will walk away. AA and Rogers are more worried about perception then winning.

 

 

I like Tampa, but a lot of their decisions are influenced by $$. I'd like to think they'd do the same if they had the $ to sign their core players long term, but that remains to be seen.

 

Also, I think you have it backwards when you say

AA and Rogers are more worried about perception then winning.

The franchise is owned by Rogers so it starts with them in terms of how they want their team to operate.

[Hawkins]

You're right that by keeping the prospects, the franchise would've been way better off long term. However, the franchise would also have had to accept going into 2013 expected to lose at least 90 games and given the injuries that year to Bautista, Lawrie, Morrow, EE and Rasmus, the team would've likely lost over 100 games. I don't think the franchise was ready to accept that as it would've meant not only lower attendance, but more importantly, lower tv ratings which I believe is the main reason why Rogers bought the franchise.

 

Not saying I agree with the short-sighted vision, I'm just saying this is how this franchise operates. If you go into an off season with the mindset that you will improve the team no matter what, you're putting yourself in danger of being had in trades or FA negotiations.

 

They just won 73 games so the expectation were still low (rebuild was accepted by most fans because it was being done right). With injuries they may have lost 100 games but then we would have Rondon instead of Pedicost and a lot of payroll flexibility. Sigh a free agent or two and then the TV ratings jump.

[G-Snarls]

They just won 73 games so the expectation were still low (rebuild was accepted by most fans because it was being done right). With injuries they may have lost 100 games but then we would have Rondon instead of Pedicost and a lot of payroll flexibility. Sigh a free agent or two and then the TV ratings jump.

 

Most quality free agents don't come to Canadian teams who play on turf and finish in last place

[ElNik2013]

They just won 73 games so the expectation were still low (rebuild was accepted by most fans because it was being done right). With injuries they may have lost 100 games but then we would have Rondon instead of Pedicost and a lot of payroll flexibility. Sigh a free agent or two and then the TV ratings jump.

 

 

Not as simple as you make it out to be. This team has not gone for a full rebuild as far as I can remember and certainly not under current ownership.

 

If it was up to me, I would've stuck with the rebuild and listened to offers on Bautista, EE, Morrow and others, but that's not how the franchise operates.

 

If it was in fact AA's idea to change course, then he'll be fired at the end of this season. If it was an organizational decision, AA will stay. At least that's how I see it.

 

We'll have to wait and see...

[ElNik2013]

Most quality free agents don't come to Canadian teams who play on turf and finish in last place

 

 

 

Some people forget how badly that 2012 season went. The team had 2 starters at the end of the season and Bautista, Rasmus and Lawrie were injured. Romero had imploded and they had the homophobic slur by Escobar. This franchise cares a lot about PR, whether people want to acknowledge it or not.

[ElNik2013]

They just won 73 games so the expectation were still low (rebuild was accepted by most fans because it was being done right). With injuries they may have lost 100 games but then we would have Rondon instead of Pedicost and a lot of payroll flexibility. Sigh a free agent or two and then the TV ratings jump.

 

 

I forgot to address this. It was quite the opposite. I think you forget how excited people were about the team going into 2012 and the team was hanging in the WC race midseason, but tanked from July onward whether because of injuries or not. The expectation was that the team was gonna show improvement, but things went really south in the 2nd half. I think you may be misremembering hot 2012 ended. Also, most fans went gaga over the trades and this was reflected in flexpacks and over all ticket pre-sales. If most fans were fine with the rebuild, they should've been mad at giving up on it, shouldn't they?

[Hawkins]

I forgot to address this. It was quite the opposite. I think you forget how excited people were about the team going into 2012 and the team was hanging in the WC race midseason, but tanked from July onward whether because of injuries or not. The expectation was that the team was gonna show improvement, but things went really south in the 2nd half. I think you may be misremembering hot 2012 ended. Also, most fans went gaga over the trades and this was reflected in flexpacks and over all ticket pre-sales. If most fans were fine with the rebuild, they should've been mad at giving up on it, shouldn't they?

 

I agree the fans were getting excited and wanted the team to improve but if the Marlins and Dickey trades don't happen the fan base is still excited about what is to come from all the talent AA acquired so quickly and allows him to continue he with his rebuild.

[Key22]

Whether some like it or not the Jays are not a pure sabermetric team and they still believe in things like leadoff hitters and speed and stealing etc which is why Reyes is a lot better player than Yunel Escobar. Escobar has had sub .700 OPS the last two years and again this year. He can't steal bases - 31 total in seven years and he has no power. He is the better defender but Reyes is better in every other aspect of the game and can actually be a useful part of the batting order. And he's not a PR problem. You'll notice when Escobar was traded there wasn't a word by anyone that he was going to be missed.

 

All of the problems and issues go away if you can pitch. We win today because Stroman was excellent and the pen held. Pitching makes you look good. It's why Detroit and Oakland have gone all in on their pitching. I am pleased by what could be in Stroman, Hutchison, and Sanchez. That looks like it could be awfully powerful as soon as next year and you add Dickey, MB and Happ and you can trot out a good 5 man rotation with a pretty balanced offense. And who knows maybe they sign someone on top. Use the money from dumping Rasmus, Lind and Morrow for an Ace like Lester or whatever and you have something. This team is kinda like the 91 Jays - closing in on something but a few pieces away from running away with it.