20 players the Blue Jays could go after

[GeorgiaPeach]

Nothing, you'd have to be an absolute idiot to take on Buehrle's contract. It's not even worth conversing about.

 

Yet people here go ga-ga over 25m Cliff Lee and are willing to empty the farm for him.

 

Get Buehrle outta here and use the insane amount of money he makes on something worthwhile.

[BTS]

The amount of people who jizz over Cliff Lee and the amount of people who s*** on Mark Buehrle... f***ing hilarious.

 

Well Cliff Lee is a lot better than Mark Buehrle, and they make very similar money.

[sh3156]

They jays will have an August similar to May. That's my guarantee to you people and then the same poster calling this team a loser will be saying how they believed all along

[GeorgiaPeach]

What nonsense is this.... Mark Buehrle is an average major league pitcher that gets paid like an ace, Cliff Lee is a bonafide ace. What point are you trying to make here?

 

Last 5 years, ERA / FIP / XFIP

 

Buehrle: 3.68 / 3.97 /4.24

 

Cliff Lee: 2.95 / 2.76 / 2.90

 

We all know Cliff Lee is excellent. I still can't comprehend how Jays fans were giddy thinking about stomping on the Sox & Yanks two years ago because their teams were old and very close to, if not at max payroll. And these same idiot fans want the Jays FO to make the Jays an even older team and get push retardedly over max payroll.

[saskjayfan]

What nonsense is this.... Mark Buehrle is an average major league pitcher that gets paid like an ace, Cliff Lee is a bonafide ace. What point are you trying to make here?

 

Last 5 years, ERA / FIP / XFIP

 

Buehrle: 3.68 / 3.97 /4.24

 

Cliff Lee: 2.95 / 2.76 / 2.90

 

Buehrle has always outperformed his FIP and XFIP. Buehrle is no cliff lee. He's just that a 3.7ERA innings eater. You can pay more dollars for certainty. We're fortunate that Buehrle has an amazing year. He's earned every dollar he's been paid this year and we only have one to go. GM's aren't going to pay enough in prospect value to warrant us trading him. Sure the Yankees would take Buehrle on in a heart beat because dollars mean nothing to them and Buehrle is a solid pitcher....but they don't have much to offer us in return.

[TwistedLogic]

Well Cliff Lee is a lot better than Mark Buehrle, and they make very similar money.

 

Except they don't? Buehrle is owed $19M for one guaranteed season after this year. Lee is owed $37.5M for one guaranteed season after this year. If they pick up his option, that's $52.5M for two years after this season. I love how people are still trying to write Buehrle off as an albatross. 19M in 2015 for a guy that's performing like a ToRP and never gets hurt is a way better deal in this f***ed up market than absolutely anyone gives credit for.

 

More importantly than that, through their age-35 seasons, Buerhle has thrown twice as many innings as Cliff Lee.

 

Which is why I'll repeat what I said. People jizzing over Lee and s***ing on Buerhle are f***ing hilarious.

[saskjayfan]

We all know Cliff Lee is excellent. I still can't comprehend how Jays fans were giddy thinking about stomping on the Sox & Yanks two years ago because their teams were old and very close to, if not at max payroll. And these same idiot fans want the Jays FO to make the Jays an even older team and get push retardedly over max payroll.

 

what is the max payroll? The payroll to date are all sunk costs. Making the playoffs could add 10s if not 100 mil or more in revenue to the team. It's a risk reward thing at this point. The carrot of additional revenue should be enough for Rogers to risk the money when the chances are this good to make the post season.

[G-Snarls]

Cliff Lee

 

2014 35 Philadelphia Phillies $25,000,000

2015 36 Philadelphia Phillies $25,000,000

2016 37 Philadelphia Phillies *$27,500,000 $27.5M Vesting Option, $12.5M Buyout option becomes guaranteed with 200 IP in 2015 or 400 IP in 2014-15

[G-Snarls]

Expensive buyouts are stupid

 

12.5M?!?!?!?! What the f*** Amaro

[TwistedLogic]

Cliff Lee

 

2014 35 Philadelphia Phillies $25,000,000

2015 36 Philadelphia Phillies $25,000,000

2016 37 Philadelphia Phillies *$27,500,000 $27.5M Vesting Option, $12.5M Buyout option becomes guaranteed with 200 IP in 2015 or 400 IP in 2014-15

 

But apparently 19M = 38M. Similar contracts and all.

[BTS]

Except they don't? Buehrle is owed $19M for one guaranteed season after this year. Lee is owed $37.5M for one guaranteed season after this year. If they pick up his option, that's $52.5M for two years after this season.

 

More importantly than that, through their age-35 seasons, Buerhle has thrown twice as many innings as Cliff Lee.

 

That's only $6 million more in 2015 for 2-3 extra wins. Yes, Lee is also owed money for 2016 while Buehrle isn't, but there's not really anything to suggest he won't still be a 2-3 win arm at that point. For a team that's trying to win now, Lee is pretty clearly a better investment, all else being equal.

[ElNik2013]

what is the max payroll? The payroll to date are all sunk costs. Making the playoffs could add 10s if not 100 mil or more in revenue to the team. It's a risk reward thing at this point. The carrot of additional revenue should be enough for Rogers to risk the money when the chances are this good to make the post season.

 

 

Except there's no evidence Rogers is willing to risk any more money. Chances are, they won't add an impact player and they have 3 of their top 6 hitters out until August so their playoff chances won't be improved by that much.

 

Remember, AA started last off season talking about having money to spend only to end up talking about how the value didn't line up and having to reportedly ask players to defer salary. The money ain't there.

[ElNik2013]

But apparently 19M = 38M. Similar contracts and all.

 

 

Seems like fuzzy math to me.

[Angrioter]

Trade for Beltre and Lee and we will be the AL Phillies.

 

Reyes and Reyes must go (OT or Tsunami lol)

[saskjayfan]

Except there's no evidence Rogers is willing to risk any more money. Chances are, they won't add an impact player and they have 3 of their top 6 hitters out until August so their playoff chances won't be improved by that much.

 

Remember, AA started last off season talking about having money to spend only to end up talking about how the value didn't line up and having to reportedly ask players to defer salary. The money ain't there.

 

there's zero evidence Rogers won't risk more payroll. They only care about what makes financial sense. If the jays are within 3 games of a playoff game in September the rogers centre is packed. If they are 8 games out of the playoffs come September 1 Rogers centre is a ghost town. If they make the playoffs there's real tangible revenue growth for next year.

 

The odds of the Jays making the playoffs at the beginning of the year were far less and more risky than they are right now. The fact that money wasn't available at the beginning of the season does not mean it won't be available now.

[DuckDuckGose]

A few quick thoughts on why not to sell right now

 

1. Because it's a rare shot to actually make the playoffs

 

2. EE, Lawrie and Lind back will plug some holes

 

3. Surely the bullpen won't keep sucking this bad

 

4. A decent 2B shouldn't cost a massive prospects package

 

5. Buerhle will still have trade value this off season if the team doesn't make it

 

The Jays need to accept they are multple pieces away from contending. Either go out and get a 2B/3B + pitcher or break it up. No point finishing third or shooting for the one-game play-in.

[BTS]

I mean, what's a reasonable projection for Lee over the next two years? Something like 7 WAR? You can probably pencil Buehrle in for 2. In terms of purely financial investment, the question is:

 

$19 million for 2 wins in one year or $53 million for 7 wins in two years. Not only does Lee provide more projected wins, he earns about $2 million less per projected win than Buehrle. If you look at 2015 as the best kick at the can the team will have in the next few years, Lee at 25 for 4 wins makes so much more sense than Buehrle at 19 for 2 wins.

[ElNik2013]

there's zero evidence Rogers won't risk more payroll. They only care about what makes financial sense. If the jays are within 3 games of a playoff game in September the rogers centre is packed. If they are 8 games out of the playoffs come September 1 Rogers centre is a ghost town. If they make the playoffs there's real tangible revenue growth for next year.

 

The odds of the Jays making the playoffs at the beginning of the year were far less and more risky than they are right now. The fact that money wasn't available at the beginning of the season does not mean it won't be available now.

 

 

 

We'll have to wait and see, but I doubt they take on much $ if they do anything at all. Maybe a Chase Headley, but I doubt they'd take on Prado.

 

 

They'd have to find a way to offset salary by including Santos or maybe Rasmus. We'll see...

[G-Snarls]

The Jays need to accept they are multple pieces away from contending. Either go out and get a 2B/3B + pitcher or break it up. No point finishing third or shooting for the one-game play-in.

 

That's the truth and was also the case for this past off season

 

The only wrong thing to do this off season was to do "little-to-nothing" which was exactly what they did

 

Need to go for it, or pack up go home and try again in a few years. No sense half-assing it.

[ElNik2013]

Cliff Lee has an elbow injury at 35 years of age. I doubt anyone would be willing to take on all of that contract....ok, maybe the Yanks.

[saskjayfan]

I mean, what's a reasonable projection for Lee over the next two years? Something like 7 WAR? You can probably pencil Buehrle in for 2. In terms of purely financial investment, the question is:

 

$19 million for 2 wins in one year or $53 million for 7 wins in two years. Not only does Lee provide more projected wins, he earns about $2 million less per projected win than Buehrle. If you look at 2015 as the best kick at the can the team will have in the next few years, Lee at 25 for 4 wins makes so much more sense than Buehrle at 19 for 2 wins.

 

I think pencilling in a 36 and 37 year old pitcher with injury issues as a 7 WAR pitcher is risky. Injury risks are real for Lee. He's old. Lee's upside is greater. I think Buehrle is more like a 2.5 WAR pitcher. He was a 2.2 WAR pitcher last year in a down year and will probably end with a WAR close to 3.5 this year. Buehrle comes with less injury risks.

[Angrioter]

I mean, what's a reasonable projection for Lee over the next two years? Something like 7 WAR? You can probably pencil Buehrle in for 2. In terms of purely financial investment, the question is:

 

$19 million for 2 wins in one year or $53 million for 7 wins in two years. Not only does Lee provide more projected wins, he earns about $2 million less per projected win than Buehrle. If you look at 2015 as the best kick at the can the team will have in the next few years, Lee at 25 for 4 wins makes so much more sense than Buehrle at 19 for 2 wins.

 

Two risky bets.

 

-Lee is good as f*** but health

-Buehrle is healthy as f*** but production$$

[DuckDuckGose]

Trade for Beltre and Lee and we will be the AL Phillies.

 

Reyes and Reyes must go (OT or Tsunami lol)

 

I'd see if the PHI's would eat the '14 salaries of Hamels and Utley. Gives AA the talent he needs now and some time to make payroll more efficient before '15.

[BTS]

I think pencilling in a 36 and 37 year old pitcher with injury issues as a 7 WAR pitcher is risky. Injury risks are real for Lee. He's old. Lee's upside is greater. I think Buehrle is more like a 2.5 WAR pitcher. He was a 2.2 WAR pitcher last year in a down year and will probably end with a WAR close to 3.5 this year. Buehrle comes with less injury risks.

 

Yeah, obviously you don't acquire him if you don't like what you see in his medicals. A healthy lee is probably something like 4 WAR next year and 3.5 in 2016 though. IMO most every system will have Buehrle at around 2 next year. He's been there the last two years, and would be there again if not for a low HR/FB artificially deflating his FIP.

 

I actually really like Mark Buehrle, and have no issues paying him what he'll earn, but if given the choice between him and Lee, I'll take Lee every time if his medicals check out.

[TwistedLogic]

I mean, what's a reasonable projection for Lee over the next two years? Something like 7 WAR? You can probably pencil Buehrle in for 2. In terms of purely financial investment, the question is:

 

$19 million for 2 wins in one year or $53 million for 7 wins in two years. Not only does Lee provide more projected wins, he earns about $2 million less per projected win than Buehrle. If you look at 2015 as the best kick at the can the team will have in the next few years, Lee at 25 for 4 wins makes so much more sense than Buehrle at 19 for 2 wins.

 

I honestly can't believe you made this post.

 

You're projecting 7 WAR over 1.5 seasons for a 35 year old that just missed two months of his current season because of an elbow injury (and isn't actually back yet), while projecting 2 wins over 1.5 seasons for Buehrle, a guy who is immune to injury, and posted more than that amount (2.2 WAR) in half a season so far. Yeah... okay...

[DuckDuckGose]

That's the truth and was also the case for this past off season

 

The only wrong thing to do this off season was to do "little-to-nothing" which was exactly what they did

 

Need to go for it, or pack up go home and try again in a few years. No sense half-assing it.

 

Imagine where they'd be if Melky and Buehrle didn't have bounce back years.

[DuckDuckGose]

Yeah, obviously you don't acquire him if you don't like what you see in his medicals. A healthy lee is probably something like 4 WAR next year and 3.5 in 2016 though. IMO most every system will have Buehrle at around 2 next year. He's been there the last two years, and would be there again if not for a low HR/FB artificially deflating his FIP.

 

I actually really like Mark Buehrle, and have no issues paying him what he'll earn, but if given the choice between him and Lee, I'll take Lee every time if his medicals check out.

 

Ya I'd take Lee as well, fairly easily.

[TheHurl]

Cliff Lee has an elbow injury at 35 years of age. I doubt anyone would be willing to take on all of that contract....ok, maybe the Yanks.

 

I guarantee the Jays have interest in Lee.

[BTS]

I honestly can't believe you made this post.

 

You're projecting 7 WAR over 1.5 seasons for a 35 year old that just missed two months of his current season because of an elbow injury (and isn't actually back yet), while projecting 2 wins over 1.5 seasons for Buehrle, a guy who is immune to injury, and posted more than that amount (2.2 WAR) in half a season so far. Yeah... okay...

 

Citing Buehrle's current FIP-based fWAR while he's rocking a 6% HR/FB is pretty disingenuous. You wake up on the wrong side of the bed? And I was talking 2015 and 2016.

[ElNik2013]

I guarantee the Jays have interest in Lee.

 

 

Interest is one thing, taking on all of that contract is a whole other one.