EE has confirmed...

[AdamDunnHatesBaseball]

That xFIP and FIP are fundamentally flawed. These 2 stats both incorporate fly ball rates and use this to calculate an expected runs given up per 9. However, all flyballs are not the same, yet these stats treats this the same. Is a fly ball from EE and Josh Thole the same thing? That is the $64,000 question, brothers.

[fatcowxlive]

That xFIP and FIP are fundamentally flawed. These 2 stats both incorporate fly ball rates and use this to calculate an expected runs given up per 9. However, all flyballs are not the same, yet these stats treats this the same. Is a fly ball from EE and Josh Thole the same thing? That is the $64,000 question, brothers.

 

You tell them nerds!!!!

[Anemic0ffense]

That xFIP and FIP are fundamentally flawed. These 2 stats both incorporate fly ball rates and use this to calculate an expected runs given up per 9. However, all flyballs are not the same, yet these stats treats this the same. Is a fly ball from EE and Josh Thole the same thing? That is the $64,000 question, brothers.

 

JFaS is already in his lab formulating a post. Give him a minute.

[Glock]

The xxButthurt^2 will be above average in this thread

[BarkatToronto]

Only stat that really matters is wins

[Angrioter]

That xFIP and FIP are fundamentally flawed. These 2 stats both incorporate fly ball rates and use this to calculate an expected runs given up per 9. However, all flyballs are not the same, yet these stats treats this the same. Is a fly ball from EE and Josh Thole the same thing? That is the $64,000 question, brothers.

 

lol

 

FIP = Walks, K's, HR and Outs (Outs = Outs)

[Angrioter]

Only stat that really matters is wins

 

Messi score a Gol. Who won the game?

[NorthOf49]

No, of course not all hitters hit the same fly balls. Power hitters hit more fly balls and generate higher HR/FB rates than average. That's what makes them power hitters.

 

If a pitcher only faced lineups filled with Edwin Encarnacions he wouldn't regress to his xFIP (FIP does NOT incorporate fly balls btw, that's the only difference between the two stats). However, in a large sample the opposition will even out. In a large sample the representative hitter a pitcher faces will have a ~10% HR/FB. That's a fact.

 

It's the same with ERA and every non-opposition adjusted stat in existence. xFIP is not opposition-adjusted and nobody claims that it is. It's not. I don't know why advanced stats are always held to a much higher standard in this regard.

[aselvana]

http://replygif.net/i/187.gif

[BTS]

[HASHTAGYOLOSWAG]

Only stat that really matters is wins

 

Exactly. Mark Buerhle and Rick Porcello are the best pitchers in the game today.

[BTS]

Confirmed FIP is flawed by this logic, and that xFIP corrects it.

 

I really wish FG would use xFIP in their WAR calculations rather than FIP. There's really no good reason for incorporating HR/FB luck and ignoring GB rate.

[AdamDunnHatesBaseball]

While we're on the subject, EE has also disproved the usefulness of BABIP. Does a ball put in play by Ryan Goins have the same chance of being a hit as a ball put in play by EE? That is the $125,000 question, dudes.

[BTS]

I know what you mean, but it's a non issue. Those runs that are luck are then lost and not attributed to some part of the team (BABIP goes to defense theoretically). WAR is just a descriptor stat with limitations. Its true value is when it's used to describe projections.

 

I mean more for conversation/discussion purposes than actually using the numbers for anything substantive. It's annoying when you're talking about a 3 WAR guy who had a 4% HR/FB. Minor pet peeve.

[AdamDunnHatesBaseball]

Pitchers do not have control of BABIP.

 

I guess Rivera was just lucky to get all those guys out with cutters that were hit weakly in the infield all those years.

[GD]

LOL Boxy called this.

[crmr]

Hitters have control of their BABIP. Some guys really are .380 BABIP hitters and others really are .260 ones. It depends mostly on the hitter's speed and his batted ball distribution. Pitchers do not have control of BABIP. Over a large sample the average true talent of the hitters a pitcher faces will be ~.300 (can differ depending on park) and thus his BABIP against will regress to that.

 

Also, bad example: Goins' career MLB BABIP is only seven points lower than EE's and his minor league track record suggest he's probably actually even or better than EE at BABIP.

 

Your second statement is actually not true by the argumentation of your first, and by the arguments laid out in the OP (with your own 10% threshold agreeing). Although, it is *usually* true, it is definitely not guaranteed in any way, not even over large samples. However, these differences can still be discounted when evaluating a player, which is what this stat matters for anyway.

[GD]

Also, bad example: Goins' career MLB BABIP is only seven points lower than EE's and his minor league track record suggest he's probably actually even or better than EE at BABIP.

 

IIRC, there's very little correlation between MiLB BABIP and MLB BABIP.

[KingKat]

So is the OP saying that xFIP isn't reliable over a one PA sample? Well I'll be damned...

[Boxcar]

That xFIP and FIP are fundamentally flawed. These 2 stats both incorporate fly ball rates and use this to calculate an expected runs given up per 9. However, all flyballs are not the same, yet these stats treats this the same. Is a fly ball from EE and Josh Thole the same thing? That is the $64,000 question, brothers.

 

You listened to me! My hero.

[Smedley Butler]

While we're on the subject, EE has also disproved the usefulness of BABIP. Does a ball put in play by Ryan Goins have the same chance of being a hit as a ball put in play by EE? That is the $125,000 question, dudes.

 

Why not do this with your regular account, why create a troll account for this? Have some balls at least, man.

[BarkatToronto]

Halladay was so lucky with all those gidp he induced with that sinker over and over again

[baseballsss]

Why not do this with your regular account, why create a troll account for this? Have some balls at least, man.

 

who is it?

[Smedley Butler]

who is it?

 

Not certain. There's about 3 or 4 obsessive types on here who dedicate their lives to needling the SABR nerdlingers every chance they get, one of them for sure.

 

Creating a troll account to say what you don't have the balls to say with your regular account? Highly homosexualist.

[NorthOf49]

False. They have control over it. It just has a tighter distribution vis-a-vis individual hitter's BABIP variances. Same with HR/FB% (pitcher's have control).

 

RTTM is for dumnies. It's a sign of giving up.

They may a little, okay, but it's virtually impossible to tell if a pitcher's low BABIP one season is talent or luck. It takes 8 full seasons for pitcher BABIP to stabilize and 9.4 seasons for HR/FB to stabilize -- an entire career for lots of pitchers.

 

It's irresponsible to take a couple seasons of a distorted HR/FB from a pitcher and say "this pitcher is especially homer-prone/homer-resistant." Fly ball rates stabilize much quicker so you really should just take that and assign a ~10% HR/FB.

[AdamDunnHatesBaseball]

Not certain. There's about 3 or 4 obsessive types on here who dedicate their lives to needling the SABR nerdlingers every chance they get, one of them for sure.

 

Creating a troll account to say what you don't have the balls to say with your regular account? Highly homosexualist.

 

I am a new poster. I don't want to offend anybody. However, EE has provided tangible evidence discrediting xFIP and BABIP, this can not be ignored.

[Smedley Butler]

I am a new poster. I don't want to offend anybody. However, EE has provided tangible evidence discrediting xFIP and BABIP, this can not be ignored.

 

Oh please. Your introductory post in last night's GT was something like "hi all I'm here to educate you all on baseball". Give me a break, obvious troll account is obvious.

 

Why be a little manlet about it? Just blast people with your default account, it's not like this is Fagbook and people will know your real ID. Stop being such a sackless pussy about this.

[NorthOf49]

I am a new poster. I don't want to offend anybody. However, EE has provided tangible evidence discrediting xFIP and BABIP, this can not be ignored.

No he hasn't, it's very easy to ignore what you're saying. xFIP and BABIP are not adjusted for the opponent. Nobody is saying that a lineup full of EEs will produce a 10% HR/FB. However, a pitcher who plays an American League schedule will, on average, face a lineup representative of the American League. The reality of that lineup is a 10% HR/FB. This isn't hard to understand.

 

Do you really think you've discredited two decades of sabermetric research by pointing out that EE is not an average player?

[baseballsss]

Not certain. There's about 3 or 4 obsessive types on here who dedicate their lives to needling the SABR nerdlingers every chance they get, one of them for sure.

 

Creating a troll account to say what you don't have the balls to say with your regular account? Highly homosexualist.

 

haha fair enough

[Nox]

 

Do you really think you've discredited two decades of sabermetric research by pointing out that EE is not an average player?

 

So you're saying I shouldn't have just torn my copy of The Book in two?

 

This is awkward.