Cluster Luck Article

[theblujay]

Here's an article from Grantland: http://grantland.com/features/the-30-week-8-phillies-royals-blue-jays-giants-cluster-luck/

 

Looking at how lucky teams have been with clustering hits on offense and scattering hits while pitching.

 

The first figure in parentheses represents runs-scored luck, the second is runs-allowed luck; positive values indicate good fortune, while negative values point to poor luck.

 

1. Seattle: 24.88 (25.65, -0.77)

2. San Francisco: 22.43 (0.08, 22.35)

3. New York Mets: 21.23 (6.35, 14.89)

4. Toronto: 14.52 (-6.88, 21.40)

5. Oakland: 14.51 (8.27, 6.24)

6. Texas: 12.26 (0.96, 11.30)

7. Kansas City: 11.39 (9.96, 1.42)

8. Baltimore: 8.72 (-6.69, 15.41)

9. Boston: 6.49 (-8.15, 14.65)

10. Philadelphia: 4.99 (-4.07, 9.06)

11. Miami: 4.79 (-2.19, 6.98)

12. Milwaukee: 3.72 (-14.83, 18.55)

13. Detroit: 2.07 (-4.47, 6.55)

14. San Diego: 0.56 (-8.12, 8.69)

15. Washington: -0.23 (-6.37, 6.14)

16. New York Yankees: -0.97 (-2.06, 1.09)

17. Chicago White Sox: -1.45 (13.48, -14.94)

18. Minnesota: -1.74 (5.75, -7.49)

19. Colorado: -3.56 (-10.81, 7.26)

20. Atlanta: -6.39 (-18.80, 12.41)

21. St. Louis: -6.71 (-8.75, 2.03)

22. Pittsburgh: -8.29 (-13.84, 5.56)

23. Cincinnati: -8.29 (-16.68, 8.40)

24. Los Angeles Dodgers: -10.01 (-19.67, 9.66)

25. Chicago Cubs: -11.20 (5.26, -16.47)

26. Los Angeles Angels: -13.33 (6.43, -19.76)

27. Cleveland: -14.16 (-4.88, -9.28)

28. Tampa Bay: -15.48 (-10.29, -5.19)

29. Arizona: -19.76 (-8.41, -11.35)

30. Houston: -25.45 (-15.10, -10.35)

 

 

So it seems the Jays have been one of the "luckiest", but entirely on the pitching side, with the hitters actually have room to improve.

[Atothe]

Figures both Buehrle and Happ have left a lot on base

[G-Snarls]

Wow

 

We have the best offense in the AL depite having some POOR luck? Nice.

 

Have to say - there's nothing "lucky" about having 4 Dominican superstar hitters stacked up.

 

Pitching? Yeah I can see that. MB and Happ have been lucky in particular it seems.

[flafson]

Wow

 

We have the best offense in the AL depite having some POOR luck? Nice.

 

Have to say - there's nothing "lucky" about having 4 Dominican superstar hitters stacked up.

 

Pitching? Yeah I can see that. MB and Happ have been lucky in particular it seems.

 

And Hendricks too, so many balls got to the warning track.

[G-Snarls]

Lawrie Lind and Bautista seem to have a hit a lot of line drives recently for outs

[BarkatToronto]

I don't buy it

 

You are more likely to get a hit with a man on base due to fielding positions and the pitcher being under pressure

[Deadpool]

I don't buy it

 

You are more likely to get a hit with a man on base due to fielding positions and the pitcher being under pressure

 

It's not like there are fewer fielders with men on base, they're just in different places, so "where they ain't" is modified. Also "some pitchers thrive under pressure" etc.

[Chappy]

It's not like there are fewer fielders with men on base, they're just in different places, so "where they ain't" is modified. Also "some pitchers thrive under pressure" etc.

 

Yeah but 'where they ain't' often times is where the best fielding position would be for a specific batter, however, due to holding on runners, positioning for a DP, etc, it sometimes can put a batter in a better position to succeed.

[HERPDERP]

Based on Pythaeirhairuhansurhn theory, Jays were expected to win 3 more games.

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/stats/team-pythagorean-expectation/2014/

[flafson]

Based on Pythaeirhairuhansurhn theory, Jays were expected to win 3 more games.

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/stats/team-pythagorean-expectation/2014/

 

All it says that s***** teams are unlucky and good teams are lucky.

[Dick_Pole]

One man's version of luck is another man's version of clutch or skill.

[GD]

All it says that s***** teams are unlucky and good teams are lucky.

 

lol