Official Fantasy Baseball Advice Thread

[Laika]

They don't have much value on their own, but I always like getting 2nds as kickers in bigger deals.

 

Really, I think once you exit round 1 (and honestly, most of the time only the top half of round 1) the drafts in our deep dynasty leagues are close to flat.

 

Like, the returns on the typical 2nd round pick might not be meaningfully different from those on 4th round picks historically.

[connorp]

Don’t forget I was the OG of dealing draft picks and used them to mostly acquire elite RPs which was the real reason for my LOD title. After my departure, it seems they’ve become undervalued. The impact of landing an elite contributor is great.

 

As for 20 teamers, I think the same holds true to a lesser extent. I’ve given away too many of mine recently because I already established a great prospect base but it probably wasn’t smart adding them as trade kickers

[Spanky99]

Well, you see what the connorpee moron is failing to tell you is he required those 2nd round picks from me in a previous trade for a 1st round pick next season, now the moron thinks I'll move Crochet the day of the draft for two 2nds I have no room for. Nothing to see here, he's a dolt.

[Spanky99]

Don’t forget I was the OG of dealing draft picks and used them to mostly acquire elite RPs which was the real reason for my LOD title. After my departure, it seems they’ve become undervalued. The impact of landing an elite contributor is great.

 

As for 20 teamers, I think the same holds true to a lesser extent. I’ve given away too many of mine recently because I already established a great prospect base but it probably wasn’t smart adding them as trade kickers

 

Played 1 year, sold all his assets to win and left... really hard to do, lol. ^^^^

[connorp]

Played 1 year, sold all his assets to win and left... really hard to do, lol. ^^^^

 

I had way more to work with in LOD than I did BORED. And that’s looking pretty sexy

[connorp]

Well, you see what the connorpee moron is failing to tell you is he required those 2nd round picks from me in a previous trade for a 1st round pick next season, now the moron thinks I'll move Crochet the day of the draft for two 2nds I have no room for. Nothing to see here, he's a dolt.

 

One was for next year douche. What do you think of Jared Shuster. Currently #1 prospect of the Braves. Send the offer

[BlueRocky]

20 year old lefty throws 97-99 FB, plus slider, and plus-plus change up. If this is not #1 upside, what is exactly?

 

Tiedemann is a good prospect don't get me wrong, but he's still got a lot to prove. His professional league track record is also really small (18 starts and 78.2 IP professionally).

 

But there's literally dozens of pitching prospects that can touch 97-99 mph in the minors, many of them haven't panned out. For every one arm that pans out, dozens don't.

 

There's only a handful of real aces in the MLB, just based on 2022 season these pitchers had over 4.5 fWAR and 160+ IP

(If your ace can't even stay on the mound for most of the season it's not a true #1, I expect an Ace to compete for Cy Young)

 

6.3 Aaron Nola - 205 IP

6.2 Carlos Rodón - 178 IP

6.1 Justin Verlander - 175 IP *AL Cy Young

5.7 Sandy Alcantara - 228.2 IP (jesus) *NL Cy Young

5.7 Kevin Gausman - 174.2 IP

5.6 Ohtani (+3.8 batting fWAR) - 166 IP

5.0 Max Fried - 185.1 IP

4.9 Shane Bieber - 200 IP

4.6 Corbin Burnes - 202 IP

4.4 Dylan Cease - 184 IP

4.4 Framber Valdez - 201.1 IP

====================

4.1 Alek Manoah 196.2 IP

 

A more recent success story would be Shane McClanahan who pitched to 3.5 fWAR and 166.1 IP in 2022. Lefty with stuff similar to Tiedemann.

It's debatable if McClanahan is a legit ace, but it'd probably would be best case scenario for Tiedemann until we see more of him.

 

In term of lefties, some of the best performances in 2022 were:

 

6.2 fWAR Carlos Rodón

5.0 fWAR Max Fried

4.4 fWAR Framber Valdez

4.0 fWAR Tyler Anderson

3.8 fWAR Martin Pérez

3.6 fWAR Nestor Cortes

3.5 fWAR Shane McClanahan

3.2 fWAR Julio Urías

 

The highest octane fastball here would be McClanahan's 4 seamer that averages 96.7 MPH and Rodon's 4 seamer at 95.5 MPH.

The rest of the group are closer to 91-94. Stuff helps a lot, but so does movement, location, extension, spin, sequencing, pitch mix, etc.

This all bakes into swinging strikes, contact rate, groundball rate, ability to reduce hard contact and barrels, etc. Pitching is complicated.

Wish we can just look at a pitcher's fastball velo and go YOLO in determining their upside.

 

Tiedemann is an exciting prospect and trending up, but need to see more of him.

Edited March 6, 2023 by BlueRocky

[Captain_Obvious]

Tiedemann is a good prospect don't get me wrong, but he's still got a lot to prove. His professional league track record is also really small.

 

But there's literally dozens of pitching prospects that can touch 97-99 mph in the minors, many of them haven't panned out.

 

There's only a handful of real aces in the MLB, just based on 2022 season these pitchers had over 4.5 fWAR and 160+ IP

(If your ace can't even stay on the mound for most of the season it's not a true #1, I expect an Ace to compete for Cy Young)

 

5.6 Ohtani (+3.8 batting fWAR) - 166 IP

6.3 Aaron Nola - 205 IP

6.2 Carlos Rodón - 178 IP

6.1 Justin Verlander - 175 IP *AL Cy Young

5.7 Sandy Alcantara - 228.2 IP (jesus) *NL Cy Young

5.7 Kevin Gausman - 174.2 IP

5.0 Max Fried - 185.1 IP

4.9 Shane Bieber - 200 IP

4.6 Corbin Burnes - 202 IP

4.4 Dylan Cease - 184 IP

====================

4.1 Alek Manoah 196.2 IP

 

A more recent success story would be Shane McClanahan who pitched to 3.5 fWAR and 166.1 IP in 2022. Lefty with stuff similar to Tiedemann.

It's debatable if McClanahan is a legit ace, but it'd probably would be best case scenario for Tiedemann until we see more of him.

 

Keyword is "upside". Tiedemann's upside is easily a #1.

[BlueRocky]

Keyword is "upside". Tiedemann's upside is easily a #1.

 

Okay.

[Spanky99]

One was for next year douche. What do you think of Jared Shuster. Currently #1 prospect of the Braves. Send the offer

 

He's s***, I bet he's on your consensus top 100 list though, lol.

[connorp]

He's s***, I bet he's on your consensus top 100 list though, lol.

 

He’s like Tyler Beede was supposed to be. Not sexy but high floor

[Spanky99]

He’s like Tyler Beede was supposed to be. Not sexy but high floor

 

lmao

[connorp]

Kelenic? Hold or sell at whatever high this is?

[Spanky99]

Kelenic? Hold or sell at whatever high this is?

 

25 PA is his high? lol

[connorp]

25 PA is his high? lol

 

I wasn’t suggesting it’s an all-time high but after he failed in his first mlb stint and also struggled in minors his value took a big hit. Then he built up value clubbing in the minors and built back solid value going into stint 2. Stint two was a flop. So now he has a break out spring and there’s some renewed value there. So do you take it, or hold for more value?

 

Gfy limp wrist

[Laika]

There is no bump in Kelenic's value right now

Not even a tiny bump

Nobody f***ing cares about his spring numbers

[connorp]

There is no bump in Kelenic's value right now

Not even a tiny bump

Nobody f***ing cares about his spring numbers

 

If you were holding him, you wouldn’t have a slimmer of extra hope right now? Maybe not because you pride yourself on being a human robot, but I’ll bet you most people would not accept the same offer they may have when we cratered hard last year

[Laika]

If you were holding him, you wouldn’t have a slimmer of extra hope right now? Maybe not because you pride yourself on being a human robot, but I’ll bet you most people would not accept the same offer they may have when we cratered hard last year

 

Hasn't he always been good in spring training? And always good in the minors?

 

All you even care about is whether MLB quality pitchers are still able to exploit him. What are his K and BB numbers this spring? If the rate is 4:1 or worse, then it's whatever. Probably the same s***** hitter who was able to homer a couple of times off AA quality pitchers.

[connorp]

It’s encouraging I’d say bc theres’s a book on him. Yeah, you can say there’s no sense looking at Justin Verlander ST stats, but there are pitchers trying to get guys out jockeying for position. So they’re going to attack his established weaknesses. An example would be like Jo Adell who used to perform well in ST

 

And guys like JK aren’t going up there working on things like a vet not worried about his job is.

[Laika]

It’s encouraging I’d say bc theres’s a book on him. Yeah, you can say there’s no sense looking at Justin Verlander ST stats, but there are pitchers trying to get guys out jockeying for position. So they’re going to attack his established weaknesses. An example would be like Jo Adell who used to perform well in ST

 

And guys like JK aren’t going up there working on things like a vet not worried about his job is.

 

So you should be buying Kelenic in all your leagues then. Are you making offers?

[connorp]

So you should be buying Kelenic in all your leagues then. Are you making offers?

 

Actually wise ass, I’m looking. I know JK is owned in BORED by King though, and our political differences make it harder to get a deal done unless I kind of overpay

[Laika]

Actually wise ass, I’m looking. I know JK is owned in BORED by King though, and our political differences make it harder to get a deal done unless I kind of overpay

 

what a pathetic comment

 

errrrrrrrrrrrrrrr uhhhhhhhhhhh i just don't want to do business with the guy because I don't like his politics

[connorp]

what a pathetic comment

 

errrrrrrrrrrrrrrr uhhhhhhhhhhh i just don't want to do business with the guy because I don't like his politics

 

Oh, not me. I’ll do a deal with the devil if it improves my team. I meant him

[Jimcanuck]

I like that c-pee and King possibly avoid one another in dynasty. Advantage for the rest of us.

[connorp]

I like that c-pee and King possibly avoid one another in dynasty. Advantage for the rest of us.

 

I know bc we used to talk trades way back in the day lol. I’m sure he’s not the only one turned off by my loving personality

[Jimcanuck]

I know bc we used to talk trades way back in the day lol. I’m sure he’s not the only one turned off by my loving personality

 

The only relevant part of your personality in this instance is your repeated disregard for SSS

[connorp]

The only relevant part of your personality in this instance is your repeated disregard for SSS

 

Yes, but you can’t disregard it’s not Joe Blow. In which case it’s much easier to ignore. Like I don’t fall into trap of guys that come up without much hype and have a a great first 100-200 abs

[connorp]

I offered Jung for Kelenic. King could use the backup future 3b in case Bohm keeps swinging a limp stick

[Jimcanuck]

I offered Jung for Kelenic. King could use the backup future 3b in case Bohm keeps swinging a limp stick

 

Josh Jung?

[BTS]

So, with Bauer in Japan for the year and ineligible for IR or minors slot in most formats - how deep does a league have to be to warrant keeping him all season?