Does anyone play Fan Duel?

[SpeedyGose]

JFaS, the DK lineup is unaffordable and has to include hitters from three teams. We can't quite do the all Coors squad.

 

I was just going to say, the DK optimal is pushing me -2,300

[NorthOf49]

For some reason ZiPS still thinks Szczur is cheaper, but Steamer and FGDC are fixed. Cabrera at SS, Soler in OF.

Thanks. Who do you expect would be the all-day optimal pitchers (I doubt the lineups will come out in time)?

[Boxcar]

Is there an all day DK?

 

There is

[NorthOf49]

Is there an all day DK?

Yes. Also, Fanduel seems to have added early sessions.

[LTR]

Despite PoP listed weather should be good for White Sox game - not taking Abreu (and Dozier) could be a mistake

 

Check out the strong wind blowing out

 

http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl

[LTR]

My optimal for early games w/ White Sox-Twins

 

P Zach McAllister

C Wilin Rosario

1B Jose Abreu

2B Brian Dozier

3B Mike Olt

SS Troy Tulowitzki

OF Dexter Fowler

OF Drew Stubbs

OF Jorge Soler

 

Optimal w/o

 

P Zach McAllister

C Wilin Rosario

1B Anthony Rizzo

2B Jose Altuve

3B Mike Olt

SS Troy Tulowitzki

OF Matt Szczur

OF Drew Stubbs

OF Jorge Soler

[Abomination]

Despite PoP listed weather should be good for White Sox game - not taking Abreu (and Dozier) could be a mistake

 

Check out the strong wind blowing out

 

http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl

 

Not to mention that Abreu is one hell of a beast vs lefties.

[LTR]

Just make sure to check weather before game time. There are apparently warnings in the Chicago area but I’m not seeing any concern in the hourly reports.

[Laika]

Just make sure to check weather before game time. There are apparently warnings in the Chicago area but I’m not seeing any concern in the hourly reports.

 

POP has been fluctuating all day. Game time POP was 72% a few hours ago now it's 14%.

[Abomination]

This is interesting regarding MLB players and other personnel and daily fantasy sports:

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12661248/major-league-baseball-forbids-players-participate-daily-fantasy-games

[BrianV]

Are we comfortable with McAllister pulling out the W? The moneyline on that game is pretty tight.

[LTR]

Are we comfortable with McAllister pulling out the W? The moneyline on that game is pretty tight.

 

I have Indians with a 59% chance to win the game.

[Abomination]

Are we comfortable with McAllister pulling out the W? The moneyline on that game is pretty tight.

 

All of the pitching options for the early games seem pretty damn crappy one way or another. Might as well take a cheap option with good upside and invest in bats imo.

[BrianV]

All of the pitching options for the early games seem pretty damn crappy one way or another. Might as well take a cheap option with good upside and invest in bats imo.

 

Fair enough. Big hitters in Coors field? Yes please....

[Abomination]

Fair enough. Big hitters in Coors field? Yes please....

 

Yeah, I'm going with McAllister, Rosario, Abreu, Travis, Arenado, Tulo, Fowler, Choo, Melky in a tourney, and JFaS FGDC in a 50/50. We'll see how they do.

[BrianV]

Yeah, I'm going with McAllister, Rosario, Abreu, Travis, Arenado, Tulo, Fowler, Choo, Melky in a tourney, and JFaS FGDC in a 50/50. We'll see how they do.

 

I'm going with the JFaS line in 3 x 50/50s today. All three projections are recommending the same lineups, so win!

 

I'm debating adding my own slightly tweaked lineup, but I've already spent my cap today. Don't want to go more than 30% of my FD account in a given day.

[Dr. Tommy John]

A friend of mine who knows I developed a much dumber, entirely manual version of your system the last couple years pointed me to this thread, so I signed up to thank the lot of you (and especially your robot overlord) for the enlightening 60 pages. I'll be sure to use your form filler after any contest to help pad your data points. I'm blown away that you managed to automate the entire process. My stats knowledge isn't so far behind so I understand and agree with your overall ideas on projection, but I have next to no programming knowledge so my research was limited to what I cared to scrape data for each day I chose to play. This is like being shown the internet after visiting your first library.

 

 

e: On that note, I would be wary of putting too much weight on wind data. Unless you've got access to different data than I have ever seen, all you have is the estimated speed and direction at the time of the first pitch, which is introducing a scary amount of noise into any calculation unelss you regress it basically to infinity.

[Boxcar]

A friend of mine who knows I developed a much dumber, entirely manual version of your system the last couple years pointed me to this thread, so I signed up to thank the lot of you (and especially your robot overlord) for the enlightening 60 pages. I'll be sure to use your form filler after any contest to help pad your data points. I'm blown away that you managed to automate the entire process. My stats knowledge isn't so far behind so I understand and agree with your overall ideas on projection, but I have next to no programming knowledge so my research was limited to what I cared to scrape data for each day I chose to play. This is like being shown the internet after visiting your first library.

 

 

e: On that note, I would be wary of putting too much weight on wind data. Unless you've got access to different data than I have ever seen, all you have is the estimated speed and direction at the time of the first pitch, which is introducing a scary amount of noise into any calculation unelss you regress it basically to infinity.

 

Yes, JFaS is one of the best things about this board.

[Boxcar]

Wow, I just freaked out because I saw Jason Marquis on the evening optimal before I realized that the Reds and Cards are the only two with lineups.

[LTR]

A friend of mine who knows I developed a much dumber, entirely manual version of your system the last couple years pointed me to this thread, so I signed up to thank the lot of you (and especially your robot overlord) for the enlightening 60 pages. I'll be sure to use your form filler after any contest to help pad your data points. I'm blown away that you managed to automate the entire process. My stats knowledge isn't so far behind so I understand and agree with your overall ideas on projection, but I have next to no programming knowledge so my research was limited to what I cared to scrape data for each day I chose to play. This is like being shown the internet after visiting your first library.

 

 

e: On that note, I would be wary of putting too much weight on wind data. Unless you've got access to different data than I have ever seen, all you have is the estimated speed and direction at the time of the first pitch, which is introducing a scary amount of noise into any calculation unelss you regress it basically to infinity.

 

Who's your friend? Does he post?

[Dr. Tommy John]

Well my analysis of previous data will tell me if it is worth anything or not.

 

Of course that's true. I tried to do something similar at one point last year and I found a decent r, but also found that most of the correlation was coming from runs scored in the first three innings (when the reading would be inherently most accurate.)

 

Again though, I was really spotty with doing it and kept no records, so I never got to actually look at whether incorporating or omitting specific data sets would improve my prediction or worsen it in the aggregate. For all I know, the days I used my hacky wind data were the days the wind was unpredictable in a statistically significant way. I'd have no way of regressing that. I would win after analyzing something new that I thought of and then keep doing it, but who knows how many wins came from random variance and how many came from an improved process (or at the expense of one) Thinking about it, it could even be advantageous for this format if the data does skew that way.

 

I'll be really curious to hear about your findings when you've run the numbers on this. Any chance I could see the r's for various stats vs. windspeed once you've made them?

[theblujay]

I'm glad I took Pompey

[Abomination]

There's a few people who loaded up on Jays in the tournament who are having huge days so far. Hopefully the Rockies do some damage too.

[NorthOf49]

There's a few people who loaded up on Jays in the tournament who are having huge days so far. Hopefully the Rockies do some damage too.

Rockies starting to make some noise. Hopefully the start of a loooong day for both clubs lol

[NorthOf49]

I feel like DFS could turn you into a Rockies fan. Similar to how watching Cubs day games has made me like the Cubs.

[Boxcar]

Wish I'd taken Collin McHugh more than once.

[BrianV]

I'm glad I took Pompey

 

There's a guy in one of my pools with Pompey, Bautista, Donaldson and Reyes... He's having a good night.

[NorthOf49]

Where did Derek Holland go? Damn...

[Laika]

Damn, shoulder soreness and Holland is done with negative points.

[Abomination]

McAllister sure seems to love baserunners today. Mostly getting away with it though.