John Gibbons: When Can We Fire This Failure?

[G-Snarls]

A very large share is the bullpens fault. How can you blame McGowan for the runs he didn't actually give up and praise the relievers when they actually did give up those runs.

 

These things actually happened and lost us the game. You can't just look at the numbahs.

 

Agreed. Were they unlucky on batted balls? Sure. But when there are runners on in high leverage situations, and you bring in your supposedly best relievers (Delabar, Cecil, Santos last night, Loup not used) in matchups that you've chosen to their advantage, you NEED strikeouts and ground balls. They failed to provide those last night.

[Angrioter]

And?

 

Just 7 innings pitched so far and a high rate of walks.. Maybe he's hurt

[Boxcar]

A very large share is the bullpens fault. How can you blame McGowan for the runs he didn't actually give up and praise the relievers when they actually did give up those runs.

 

These things actually happened and lost us the game. You can't just look at the numbahs.

 

This is pretty much a key example of luck in baseball on both sides of the coin and you just let it go right over your head. No one has a 100% k rate, and expecting that result is stupid. Ground balls sometimes find holes, sometimes in succession.

 

Only thing I'll say about Gibby is that he's a much better in-game decision maker than Farrell. It's not saying much but even though he's an awful manager, Farrell managed to win the WS. Torre won a bunch despite being terrible.

 

I hate how a team is good or bad and the first place praise or scorn is given is towards a guy that has little to do with the outcome.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

AA has all of his bases covered. First scapegoat is Walker... Second scapegoat is Gibbons (He'll fire him towards the end of the year) The narrative going into the offseason will be that of a "fresh start". Buys himself another year or two. Ninja strikes again!

 

Red Sox fired Valentine after a disasterous year. Blue Jays, being the Mickey Mouse team that they are, fail to admit that anything is wrong and keep the status quo.

 

Red sox proceed to win WS while Blue Jays fight to stay relevant in the Raptors dominated streets of Toronto.

[Angrioter]

This is pretty much a key example of luck in baseball on both sides of the coin and you just let it go right over your head. No one has a 100% k rate, and expecting that result is stupid. Ground balls sometimes find holes, sometimes in succession.

 

Only thing I'll say about Gibby is that he's a much better in-game decision maker than Farrell. It's not saying much but even though he's an awful manager, Farrell managed to win the WS. Torre won a bunch despite being terrible.

 

I hate how a team is good or bad and the first place praise or scorn is given is towards a guy that has little to do with the outcome.

 

I know that Gibbons is in love with Jenkins but .. Is he the guilty of having a second base below replacement level, an 4th OF (below below replacement level) who only sits on the bench watching the game and a bullpen conformed by Rogers, Redmond and Happ?

 

The manager's decisions not have as much weight in the development of a 162-game season. Fired Alex-Beeston and his crew of bitches.

 

Sierra, Goins, Happ, Rogers, Redmond and Thole It's unacceptable for an +130 millions dollars payroll team.

[jaysfan2014]

Yes, Gibbons has made mistakes, we know, and we know AA and Beeston have made some errors.. but this could be said for many ownerships, not just Toronto. Pete Walker should be fired, because of the issues with the pitching staff (28th in bullpen ERA, better than "contending" Detroit, who have worse bullpen issues than us, and 23rd in starter's ERA).

 

Thought I'd also mention Tampa Bay is near the bottom in many categories as well, and their bullpen is even more overworked than ours.

 

But still.. Pete Walker needs to take the fall.

[G-Snarls]

Davidi on the bullpen and Stroman:

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/blogs/the-rundown/jays-bullpen-woes-a-blip-or-a-trend/

[G-Snarls]

A side note, and this may be little more than due diligence on the part of the Chicago Cubs, but major-league scout Dave Littlefield was among those watching Stroman.

[darthjon]

Like many fans I've been critical of Gibbons since last season (well, actually, since the decision to bring him back) but I'm not sure any manager could succeed with this group. Sure there are holes here and there but the one major, major problem with the team is the mess of a starting rotation. A team will never be competitive in MLB, let alone in the AL, with this kind of starting rotation. Problems:

 

1) No reliable ace. Dickey was supposed to be it but clearly he isn't cut out for pitching in the AL, especially in a hitter's park. Let's face it, 2012 might have been a fluke for Dickey. He was mediocre before 2012 and he's been mediocre (perhaps even worse than mediocre) since then. Successful teams have that go-to number 1 starter that they can always count on. Buehrle was that guy through his first 4 starts but he's not going to be that guy all season.

 

2) Young pitchers not living up to their potential. Perhaps there is something seriously wrong with how we develop our pitchers, but we seem to have a long list of young guys with supposedly great stuff who just don't pitch in line with their talent. It's one thing to keep these guys working in the minors, hoping they'll figure it out (Romero) but you can't have 2 or 3 of them in your starting rotation and expect to be competitive. Watching Morrow walk 8 guys in 3 innings was just brutal. Some of these guys just look overmatched in the majors.

 

3) Aside from Buehrle, no workhorses in the rotation. Having your starters give up 5 or 6 runs can be tolerated if they can be counted on to pitch deep into games. But so far we're seeing a repeat of 2013 with starters consistently failing to make it past the 5th inning, which puts way, way too much pressure on the bullpen. In 2013 the bullpen carried the team until they started running out of gas but over the past couple of weeks the bullpen has looked shell-shocked.

 

As for Gibbons, I find that he often seems to be overthinking the game, sometimes making questionable moves seemingly for the sake of it. There was that one game recently where he ran through the entire bench in the 7th inning playing the lefty-righty chess game, and then didn't have pinch hitters or runners when it mattered. Sometimes he goes to the bullpen earlier than he needs to for the sake of getting the lefty-lefty matchup. And I agree with other comments (including those made by Zaun) about starting innings with your relievers, especially when they've been hit hard and their confidence is shot.

[IBTrini]

I don't have a problem with any of Gibbon's moves today, other than putting Santos in during the 8th. Bottom line is; Delabar, Cecil, and Santos f***ed up again. They didn't perform to expectations.

I agree with this.

[theblujay]

This is pretty much a key example of luck in baseball on both sides of the coin and you just let it go right over your head. No one has a 100% k rate, and expecting that result is stupid. Ground balls sometimes find holes, sometimes in succession.

 

Only thing I'll say about Gibby is that he's a much better in-game decision maker than Farrell. It's not saying much but even though he's an awful manager, Farrell managed to win the WS. Torre won a bunch despite being terrible.

 

I hate how a team is good or bad and the first place praise or scorn is given is towards a guy that has little to do with the outcome.

So you blame McGowan more so than the bullpen for last nights loss because of their BABIP? That's ridiculous if true

[IBTrini]

This, Gibbons is feeling like he has to win every game and having a ridiculously short leash on the starters

Were you referring to McGowan's start? If so, McGowan was used appropriately - already was at 92 pitches, was coming off a bad start previously, and also was not stretched out as a starter till late. He performed as well as could be expected. With respect to what was mentioned by someone above re bringing relievers in at start of innings I believe that's hogwash. Any reliever worth his salt should be able to come in at any point in a game and shut down or even minimize the damage by the opposition especially with a big lead. To give up 6 runs is the equivalent of a total melt-down - totally on the BP as far as I am concerned.

[IBTrini]

Today:

 

Dustin McGowan: .167 BABIP, 0.0% HR/FB, 5.87 xFIP

Bullpen: .700 BABIP, 33.3% HR/FB

 

ALL THE BULLPENS FAULT!!!!

I agree with this statement.

[Angrioter]

No. I don't blame anyone because there doesn't need to be blame. No one has a 100% K%. They didn't "fail". The bullpen likely pitched better than McGowan did though.

 

You must deal with BABIP, it's part of the game.

Luck, ground conditions, the fielders range and the positioning of fielders is part of the game............for both teams.

[Angrioter]

Exactly, so don't blame the pitchers!

 

 

But things get worse when you can't put strikes. Batters hit the ball with more pop and the BABIP increases.

Throw strikes and your talent will help your team to win games. "Strike" is the best pitch in baseball.

[IBTrini]

No. I don't blame anyone because there doesn't need to be blame. No one has a 100% K%. They didn't "fail". The bullpen likely pitched better than McGowan did though.

Really? How did you arrive at that conclusion? From my perspective McGowan did what was expected of him. From my perspective, he pitched at least 6 innings and left the game giving the team a chance for the win. The BP performance was total implosion.

[Angrioter]

There's no indication that pitchers with less command have higher BABIPs.

 

Other factors alter the BABIP.

What is the correlation between "hit hard balls" and BABIP?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=15&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

[Angrioter]

There's no indication that pitchers with less command have higher BABIPs.

 

Within the context. Not all pitchers have the same stuff.

[Angrioter]

If McGowan pitches all season the way he did yesterday he'll end up with an ERA somewhere between 5 and 6.

 

McGowan last night pitched an 5.89 runs game.

[Atothe]

I didn't see the game until after McGowan left so idk if he threw quality strikes but this guy shouldn't be a starter. Next man up. STROMAN please. Bullpen arms shouldn't be trusted on a year to year basis. Too variables.

[G-Snarls]

No. I don't blame anyone because there doesn't need to be blame. No one has a 100% K%. They didn't "fail". The bullpen likely pitched better than McGowan did though.

 

If McGowan pitches all season the way he did yesterday he'll end up with an ERA somewhere between 5 and 6.

 

Here's how I would separate the two questions that we seem to be asking ourselves

 

1. McGowan didn't blow the game last night because it was the bullpen who gave up most of the runs

 

2. Despite that, he didn't pitch that well according to the best stats, and his performance overall this season, including last night suggests he's not good enough to keep a starting job

[G-Snarls]

Hard hit balls and velocity of the bat affect BABIP yes. But they are not under the control of the pitcher.

 

And here we go again, we all seem to have this debate on a weekly basis

[saskjayfan]

I didn't see the game until after McGowan left so idk if he threw quality strikes but this guy shouldn't be a starter. Next man up. STROMAN please. Bullpen arms shouldn't be trusted on a year to year basis. Too variables.

 

McGowan struggled a bit early, but settled in and threw strikes and had a very good 6th inning. He deserves his next start after last night. Morrow is the next guy who should have his job threatened. Maybe he will respond the same way.

[Angrioter]

Hard hit balls and velocity of the bat affect BABIP yes. But they are not under the control of the pitcher.

 

When the count is positive/favorable to the batter, the ball is hit with more pop?

 

When I guess the pitch in "MLB the Show" my offensive production increases considerably:)

[IBTrini]

If McGowan pitches all season the way he did yesterday he'll end up with an ERA somewhere between 5 and 6.

I may have mistakenly thought a 5th starter was not all that important and that an ERA below 6 would be sufficient if he could provide some innings (around 6). On top of that I was also foreseeing better numbers moving forward as he settles down and gains some arm strength but maybe that is most probably being a bit too optimistic on my part.

[theblujay]

No. I don't blame anyone because there doesn't need to be blame. No one has a 100% K%. They didn't "fail". The bullpen likely pitched better than McGowan did though.

 

So it seems to me that you would place the "blame" almost entirely on luck, and I just have a problem doing that.

 

I wonder then, how much of the game is actually luck. I remember reading an article about projections at the beginning of the season and how projection system try to reach a certain limit of projections to have "perfect" results, when in fact being perfect in this case was being off by a number of wins. I think I might remember it said that luck accounts for up to a third of the difference in wins between any two teams.

[theblujay]

Hard hit balls and velocity of the bat affect BABIP yes. But they are not under the control of the pitcher.

 

Does BABIP vary with different counts? And I guess that variance disappears over a large sample because you assume everyone sees a proportional amount of each count. But if true,for batters would more patient hitters have a higher BABIP?

[theblujay]

oh my god

 

Nothing wrong with putting a little pressure on him to see if it helps him figure it out

[Angrioter]

I may have mistakenly thought a 5th starter was not all that important and that an ERA below 6 would be sufficient if he could provide some innings (around 6). On top of that I was also foreseeing better numbers moving forward as he settles down and gains some arm strength but maybe that is most probably being a bit too optimistic on my part.

 

..............then, Joe Blanton is out there. Alex, do it!!

[theblujay]

Yes there is. You don't pull Brandon Morrow from the rotation.

 

Maybe he responds to being pressured, I'm not saying actually remove if he pitches like he did before his last start